Pool C

[pabegg]

OK, here are the games that I think need to be checked for regional status:

First of all, all La Sierra games should not be regional as La Sierra is year 2 provisional

Wilkes-Endicott should not be (over 200)
Trinity CT-Cazenovia should not be (over 200)
Ferrum-York PA should not be (over 200)
Ripon-Centenary should not be (over 200)
Finlandia-St. Scholastica should not be (over 200)
Anderson-Elmhurst should not be (over 200)

RPI-Colby-Sawyer should be (under 200)
Drew-Gordon should be (same admin)
Lasell-Western Conn should be (same region)
Pine Manor-RutgersCamden should be (same admin)
Keene St-Goucher should be (same admin)
Merchant Marine-Coast Guard should be (under 200)
Newbury-MIT should be (same region)
Philadelphia Bible-Cazenovia should be (same conference)
Gettysburg-Richard Stockton should be (under 200)
Mt. St. Vincent-St. Elizabeth should be (same region)
Mt. St. Vincent-Yeshiva should be (same region)
Scranton-Catholic should be (same conference)
Adrian-Virginia Wesleyan should be (same admin)
Centre-Trinity TX should be (same region) – only 1 of 2 is now
Rhodes-Centre should be (same region)
PSU-Behrend-Manchester should be (same region)
Hanover-Allegheny should be (same region)
Denison-Thiel should be (same region)
Dominican-Manchester should be (under 200)
Mt Mary-Alverno should be (same region)
Nebraska Wesleyan-Lewis & Clark (same region)

Bay Path-Albany Pharmacy is not D3
Husson-Maine Fort Kent is not D3
NYCT-Fisher is not D3
Mt. St. Vincent-St. Joseph's Brooklyn is provisional D3
Alverno-Stephens not D3
Alverno-UW-Parkside not D3
Cal Lutheran-CS East Bay not D3

[Ralph Turner]

Wilkes-Endicott should not be (over 200)
Trinity CT-Cazenovia should not be (over 200)
Ferrum-York PA should not be (over 200)
Ripon-Centenary should not be (over 200)
Finlandia-St. Scholastica should not be (over 200)
Anderson-Elmhurst should not be (over 200)

RPI-Colby-Sawyer should be (under 200)
Drew-Gordon should be (same admin)  YES
Lasell-Western Conn should be (same region) YES
Pine Manor-RutgersCamden should be (same admin) YES
Keene St-Goucher should be (same admin)  YES
Merchant Marine-Coast Guard should be (under 200)
Newbury-MIT should be (same region)  YES
Philadelphia Bible-Cazenovia should be (same conference)  YES
Gettysburg-Richard Stockton should be (under 200)
Mt. St. Vincent-St. Elizabeth should be (same region)  YES
Mt. St. Vincent-Yeshiva should be (same region)  YES
Scranton-Catholic should be (same conference)  YES
Adrian-Virginia Wesleyan should be (same admin)  YES
Centre-Trinity TX should be (same region) – only 1 of 2 is now  YES
Rhodes-Centre should be (same region)  YES
PSU-Behrend-Manchester should be (same region)  YES
Hanover-Allegheny should be (same region)  YES
Denison-Thiel should be (same region)  YES
Dominican-Manchester should be (under 200)
Mt Mary-Alverno should be (same region)  YES
Nebraska Wesleyan-Lewis & Clark (same region) YES

Bay Path-Albany Pharmacy is not D3  TRUE
Husson-Maine Fort Kent is not D3   TRUE
NYCT-Fisher is not D3  TRUE
Mt. St. Vincent-St. Joseph's Brooklyn is FIRST YEAR provisional D3.  TRUE
Alverno-Stephens not D3  TRUE
Alverno-UW-Parkside not D3  TRUE
Cal Lutheran-CS East Bay not D3  TRUE

[pabegg]

I was double-checking the schools that come down to distance (and I still agree with my earlier assessments), and one really humorous one came up.

Merchant Marine (Kings Point, NY) and Coast Guard (New London, CT) are 91 miles apart, including a trip on the ferry from Long Island to New London. I know that we've laughed over the years at the use of the Lake Michigan ferry (for Hope-Carthage), but if there is any pairing in D3 that should use a WATER route, it's this one. Frankly, they should have to travel by ship for this game!

[Just Bill]

pabegg,

I am humbled by your MS Excel prowess.

Sincerely,

Bill Gates

[Mr. Ypsi]

I was double-checking the schools that come down to distance (and I still agree with my earlier assessments), and one really humorous one came up.

Merchant Marine (Kings Point, NY) and Coast Guard (New London, CT) are 91 miles apart, including a trip on the ferry from Long Island to New London. I know that we've laughed over the years at the use of the Lake Michigan ferry (for Hope-Carthage), but if there is any pairing in D3 that should use a WATER route, it's this one. Frankly, they should have to travel by ship for this game!

There is one key difference: the Lake Michigan ferry is shut down during the entire basketball season.  One hopes this is not true of the Coast Guard and Merchant Marine!

[atn alum]

Patrick

How should we read your chart?

Basically, if I'm a team in the "C Second" or "A Second" group...am I completely in the "win out to the final and hope a lot of the league favorites win their leagues" mode?

[pabegg]

Patrick

How should we read your chart?

Basically, if I'm a team in the "C Second" or "A Second" group...am I completely in the "win out to the final and hope a lot of the league favorites win their leagues" mode?

Actually, you're in worse shape than that.

I've taken the top team from each conference (not necessarily the conference leader) and assigned them a Pool A bid. Then I've taken the top 21 teams and assigned them the Pool C spots; they're labeled "C 1" to "C 21." The next 10 Pool C spots are "C second" and the next 10 are "C third." Then I've labeled the Pool A teams by where their ranking is relative to the Pool C teams. If they are ranked with one of the top 21, then they get a "A w C," if they're with the second tier, then "A second," and so forth.

So the teams that are in the "second" tier are looking at 21 teams ahead of them, even before any upsets. These are teams that need to gain ground, which at this point in the season probably means winning all their games except one (since going unbeaten means a Pool A bid), and hoping that the teams ahead of them lose more than once or have a bad playoff loss.

The teams that are really in the range that you described are the "C 16" to "C 21" teams, along with the "A w C" teams that have comparable national rankings. These are the teams that would lose their Pool C spots if top teams start taking those bids away.

[pureshooter]

 PABEGG,

     i'm new at this. how does coast guard in the northeast rank 10th when they have lost 2 conference games, one to a sub 500 team ( in conference and overall) and another barely above 500, plus they are second in the division w/2 games left?

[pabegg]

PABEGG,

     i'm new at this. how does coast guard in the northeast rank 10th when they have lost 2 conference games, one to a sub 500 team ( in conference and overall) and another barely above 500, plus they are second in the division w/2 games left?

I assume that your real question is why are they ranked ahead of NEWMAC leader Wheaton.

First of all, conference record doesn't matter for ranking purposes. Conference games are just another regional game as far as ranking and selection goes.

So Coast Guard is 16-4 in region, while Wheaton is 16-5. Wheaton's strength of schedule numbers are a little better than Coast Guard's but not enough to make up for the one extra loss.

In the actual NCAA rankings, they also factor in head-to-head record and results against ranked teams. Wheaton has two losses against ranked teams (Tufts and Brandeis) and Coast Guard only has one (E. Conn), which is advantage Wheaton. However, Coast Guard won the head-to-head matchup, which would keep them ahead in the rankings.

In all likelihood, the rankings will not matter to either of these schools as their only sure way in is by winning the NEWMAC. Coast Guard still has a faint chance for a Pool C if they win all their games up until the conference final.

[ILive4This]

Brandeis women are not ranked, unless you are referring to regional rankings or the others receiving votes category.

[David Collinge]

Brandeis women are not ranked, unless you are referring to regional rankings or the others receiving votes category.

He is referring to the regional rankings; in-region results vs. regionally ranked teams is a criterion in the ranking and selection process, whereas the D3hoops.com Top 25 poll is not relevant to that process.

[atn alum]

Yeah, we've seen some weird things related to league standings and NCAA selections in past. NESCAC once had a scenario in which the 4th place team (Wesleyan) made NCAAs and the third place team (Williams) didn't.

Stuff like that happens with this system.

As I've said before...Deiscanton has been right-on with previous bubble analysis...looking forward to his insights, as we get a little closer, on bubble-fringe ("faint chance") teams.

[ILive4This]

I posted this in the UAA discussion as well, but I find it interesting that Brandeis Women are ranked ahead of Southern Maine when they have twice as many losses. In addition, the men are in a similar situation however ranked below UMD, however the men did lose to UMD earlier this season so it makes a bit of sense.

What are the total number of pool c spots for women - 21? I know it is 17 for men...

[pabegg]

I posted this in the UAA discussion as well, but I find it interesting that Brandeis Women are ranked ahead of Southern Maine when they have twice as many losses. In addition, the men are in a similar situation however ranked below UMD, however the men did lose to UMD earlier this season so it makes a bit of sense.

What are the total number of pool c spots for women - 21? I know it is 17 for men...

Correct on 21.

On the rankings, the head-to-head is key. Without it, I could see Brandeis being ahead, although it's a toss-up.

The Brandeis women also have a bigger advantage on strength-of-schedule than the men do, so the ranking there is not really surprising.

The men's and women's committees have different takes on the rules, as we've seen over the years, so I wouldn't expect an exact correlation in results, even given the same data.

[pabegg]

Impact of results since Sunday on Pool C (I've been doing this daily on the men's side, so I thought that I'd take a look at the women).

Remarkably, not much. The tournament cutoff did not change for the 21 teams that I projected for the games through Sunday.

Bridgewater State gained a couple of spots and a little breathing room with their win over Salem State, who dropped slightly but is still very comfortable if they lose the Pool A bid.

Lebanon Valley's loss dropped them lower on the bubble; they went from being uncertain to very nervous.

Randolph-Macon and Christopher Newport are still likely Pool A teams, but their Pool C chances took a hit (RMC from bubble to below bubble, CNU from just below to well below).

Pool B didn't change this week. It's still comfortable for Scranton and Chapman, with Moravian and Concordia WI still battling for 3rd.