Pool C

pabegg · February 25, 2008, 10:21:24 PM

Quote from: theBroadcaster on February 25, 2008, 05:25:50 PM
Quote from: pabegg on February 25, 2008, 12:07:29 PM
Brandeis is in a singular situation. Despite being firmly on the bubble, they have a chance to go unbeaten this week (by beating NYU in their only game) and thereby move up relative to teams that will have a loss in their conference tournaments.

Pabegg, so in your opinion, if Brandeis was to beat NYU on sat. and there aren't a crazy number of upsets in the conference tourneys, then are the Judges in? I kind of felt like they played their way out of the tournament this past weekend.

With a win this weekend, Brandeis will be in consideration; at very worst they will be at the top of the Northeast roster when the final cuts are made. They definitely would be rooting for favorites to win Pool A bids.

They're 7-5 in-region against top 100 teams, with only one bad loss (NYU). I'd like Brandeis' chances at 18-6. If they'd done better this weekend, they'd have clinched a bid by now.

jagluski · February 26, 2008, 10:47:48 AM

Quote from: pabegg on February 25, 2008, 12:07:29 PM
Here's my latest run on ranking, with games through Sunday.
Reg Conf Rank Prior RPI OWP OOWP School Natl Status Reg Overall
NE 16 01 01 0.6887 0.6341 0.5702 Tufts 002 A w C 22-2 22-2
NE 13 02 02 0.6475 0.5576 0.5546 Southern Maine 005 A w C 23-2 23-2
NE 16 03 03 0.6313 0.5245 0.5596 Amherst 011 C 1 22-2 23-2
NE 14 04 04 0.6277 0.5549 0.5315 Salem State 018 A w C 20-3 20-5
NE 13 05 06 0.6283 0.5612 0.5508 Eastern Connecticut 022 C 5 21-4 21-4
NE 14 06 07 0.6053 0.4909 0.5303 Bridgewater State 028 C 9 20-2 20-4
NE 16 07 08 0.6504 0.6353 0.5691 Bowdoin 036 C 13 16-5 18-7
NE 90 08 05 0.6409 0.6222 0.5800 Brandeis 044 C 18 17-6 17-7
NE 13 09 09 0.5981 0.5334 0.5430 Western Connecticut 053 C second 18-5 19-5
NE 17 10 10 0.5774 0.4796 0.5243 Coast Guard 056 A second 19-4 21-4
NE 16 11 11 0.6249 0.6144 0.5625 Wesleyan 059 C second 17-7 17-8

EA 24 01 01 0.6388 0.5530 0.5404 William Smith 013 A w C 20-2 22-2
EA 61 02 03 0.5952 0.4902 0.4873 Medaille 033 A w C 21-2 23-2
EA 90 03 02 0.6565 0.6392 0.5749 Rochester 034 C 12 17-5 19-5
EA 23 04 04 0.5970 0.5091 0.5129 Brockport State 037 A w C 18-3 21-4
EA 24 05 05 0.5848 0.4945 0.5406 St. Lawrence 055 C second 17-4 21-4
EA 21 06 06 0.5697 0.4960 0.4949 Stevens 064 A third 19-5 20-5
EA 23 07 07 0.5784 0.5133 0.5252 Cortland State 067 C third 16-5 20-5
EA 23 08 09 0.5778 0.5392 0.5188 Oneonta State 077 C third 15-6 17-7
EA 21 09 11 0.5742 0.5571 0.5008 Ithaca 088 15-7 16-9

AT 41 01 02 0.6300 0.5183 0.5270 Mary Washington 010 A w C 22-1 23-2
AT 32 02 01 0.6451 0.5802 0.5451 Kean 014 A w C 21-3 22-3
AT 33 03 04 0.6238 0.5369 0.5014 Mount St. Mary 016 A w C 23-2 23-2
AT 41 04 03 0.6368 0.5954 0.5228 Marymount 020 C 4 20-4 21-4
AT 32 05 05 0.6464 0.6198 0.5541 New Jersey 029 C 10 19-5 20-5
AT 32 06 06 0.6262 0.5819 0.5413 William Paterson 039 C 15 20-5 20-5
AT 31 07 07 0.5901 0.5166 0.4939 Baruch 042 A won 20-4 22-6
AT 33 08 09 0.5797 0.5240 0.4882 Farmingdale State 062 C second 18-5 18-5
AT 33 09 11 0.5535 0.4715 0.4793 Mount St. Vincent 076 C third 19-5 20-5

MA 42 01 01 0.7004 0.6704 0.5515 Messiah 008 A w C 20-2 23-2
MA 43 02 02 0.6406 0.5772 0.5278 DeSales 015 A w C 22-3 22-3
MA 42 03 03 0.6388 0.5929 0.5514 Albright 025 C 7 18-4 20-5
MA 46 04 04 0.6347 0.5957 0.5295 Scranton 031 B 1 18-4 19-5
MA 42 05 05 0.5887 0.4968 0.5280 Lebanon Valley 043 C 17 20-4 21-4
MA 44 06 06 0.6040 0.5613 0.5019 Gwynedd-Mercy 048 A w C 19-5 20-5
MA 45 07 07 0.5788 0.5245 0.5061 Muhlenberg 070 A third 19-6 19-6
MA 45 08 12 0.5528 0.4727 0.5055 Franklin and Marshall 089 19-6 19-6
MA 44 09 09 0.5478 0.4722 0.4850 Misericordia 091 16-5 18-7

SO 51 01 01 0.6458 0.5355 0.5120 Howard Payne 003 A w C 23-0 25-0
SO 51 02 02 0.6199 0.5254 0.5120 McMurry 017 C 2 22-2 22-3
SO 54 03 03 0.6269 0.5700 0.5414 Oglethorpe 032 C 11 19-4 21-4
SO 52 04 04 0.6014 0.5269 0.4944 Piedmont 035 A w C 18-3 22-3
SO 54 05 06 0.6149 0.5603 0.5208 Trinity (Texas) 038 C 14 18-4 19-5
SO 53 06 05 0.5889 0.5052 0.5192 Randolph-Macon 047 A w C 19-4 21-4
SO 53 07 08 0.5945 0.5355 0.5152 Virginia Wesleyan 050 C 21 19-5 20-5
SO 51 08 09 0.5925 0.5289 0.5123 Hardin-Simmons 051 C second 20-5 20-5
SO 55 09 07 0.5739 0.5152 0.4827 Christopher Newport 066 A third 185 19-6

GL 54 01 01 0.6634 0.5827 0.5384 DePauw 001 A w C 19-1 22-3
GL 65 02 02 0.6432 0.5338 0.5052 Thomas More 006 A w C 20-0 25-0
GL 64 03 03 0.6368 0.5453 0.5368 Baldwin-Wallace 009 A w C 23-2 23-2
GL 62 04 04 0.6255 0.4919 0.5183 Hope 012 A w C 22-0 24-0
GL 62 05 05 0.5839 0.4925 0.5174 Albion 049 C 20 15-3 20-4
GL 64 06 07 0.6107 0.5826 0.5276 Ohio Northern 057 C second 18-6 19-6
GL 64 07 06 0.6153 0.5933 0.5355 Wilmington 058 C second 17-6 19-6
GL 65 08 08 0.5733 0.5029 0.4979 Washington and Jefferson 065 C third 15-4 19-6
GL 63 09 09 0.5421 0.4259 0.4668 Kenyon 075 A third 17-3 19-6

MW 86 01 01 0.6723 0.6096 0.5572 UW-Whitewater 007 A w C 21-2 23-2
MW 86 02 03 0.6471 0.6046 0.5612 UW-Eau Claire 019 C 3 18-4 20-5
MW 71 03 05 0.6061 0.4883 0.5350 Illinois Wesleyan 023 A w C 21-2 23-2
MW 86 04 04 0.6264 0.5628 0.5468 UW-Stevens Point 026 C 8 20-4 21-4
MW 74 05 02 0.6079 0.5056 0.5158 St. Norbert 027 A w C 19-2 19-4
MW 90 06 06 0.6573 0.6340 0.5718 Washington U. 030 A w C 15-4 18-6
MW 90 07 10 0.6393 0.6019 0.5809 Chicago 041 C 16 17-5 19-5
MW 76 08 08 0.5815 0.5053 0.4735 Maryville (Mo.) 045 A w C 16-3 21-3
MW 74 09 07 0.5930 0.5167 0.5203 Carroll 046 C 19 18-4 19-4

WE 81 01 01 0.6465 0.5504 0.5352 Simpson 004 A w C 19-1 23-2
WE 83 02 02 0.6245 0.5494 0.5167 George Fox 021 A w C 15-2 22-3
WE 83 03 03 0.6114 0.5157 0.5254 Puget Sound 024 C 6 16-2 21-4
WE 89 04 04 0.6005 0.5383 0.4920 Chapman 040 B 2 15-3 22-3
WE 82 05 05 0.5756 0.5010 0.5088 St. Benedict 061 A second 19-5 20-5
WE 84 06 07 0.5556 0.4608 0.4773 Occidental 069 A third 14-3 20-5
WE 82 07 10 0.5755 0.5376 0.5066 St. Thomas 078 C third 18-7 18-7
WE 81 08 06 0.5731 0.5264 0.5313 Coe 085 17-7 18-7
WE 81 09 11 0.5932 0.5915 0.5399 Luther 087 13-7 15-9

At this point, anyone in the top 40 probably has clinched a Pool C bid if they need one. This is partly due to the fact that no one can lose two games this week and that everyone who is in Pool C contention from conferences with a tournament will have at least one loss this week. There simply isn't that much movement in the final week. The remaining 6 Pool C slots, from Chicago to Virginia Wesleyan, stand a good chance of going away to teams that are higher ranked and get upset in the conference tournaments.

Brandeis is in a singular situation. Despite being firmly on the bubble, they have a chance to go unbeaten this week (by beating NYU in their only game) and thereby move up relative to teams that will have a loss in their conference tournaments.

On the Pool B side, Concordia IL leads Moravian for the final spot.

I know you've explained this previously (so I apologize for asking again), but how are these charts sorted? For example, why is Wash U 6th in the Midwest when they have the third best RPI?

Thanks for putting all this data together.

pabegg · February 26, 2008, 11:08:42 AM

The national ranking is used to rank the teams within the regions.

The national ranking is a blend of the RPI and the Regional Winning Percentage (RWP) rankings. This reflects past experience with the official NCAA regional rankings.

In WashU's case, their strong RPI (#5 in country) is balanced off by their lower RWP (#56 in country). All of the schools above them have better records (and all but St. Norbert were ranked ahead of them in the last NCAA rankings).

jagluski · February 26, 2008, 11:32:39 AM

Quote from: pabegg on February 26, 2008, 11:08:42 AM
The national ranking is used to rank the teams within the regions.

The national ranking is a blend of the RPI and the Regional Winning Percentage (RWP) rankings. This reflects past experience with the official NCAA regional rankings.

In WashU's case, their strong RPI (#5 in country) is balanced off by their lower RWP (#56 in country). All of the schools above them have better records (and all but St. Norbert were ranked ahead of them in the last NCAA rankings).

Thanks for the answer.

bbald eagle · February 27, 2008, 03:00:42 PM

The NCAAs regional rankings seem to have the teams overall records in the regional record category instead of the overall record category and vise versa

http://www.ncaasports.com/basketball/womens/polls/rankings/diviii

is it possible that regional rankings were compiled using the wrong data?

Mr. Ypsi · February 27, 2008, 03:22:12 PM

Quote from: bbald eagle on February 27, 2008, 03:00:42 PM
The NCAAs regional rankings seem to have the teams overall records in the regional record category instead of the overall record category and vise versa

http://www.ncaasports.com/basketball/womens/polls/rankings/diviii

is it possible that regional rankings were compiled using the wrong data?

If so, they corrected it by the time I looked.

bbald eagle · February 27, 2008, 03:30:18 PM

You are right. It has been corrected. Perhaps the NCAA checks this board? 8)

airball1 · February 27, 2008, 10:12:04 PM

Pabegg:
Your ratings are very interesting and obviously you have spent quite a bit of time on this.
thx
In the south region, I believe McMurry is third in the NCAA Regional ratings and Oglethorpe is second.
I look forward to your updates every evening as these next few days are going to be very interesting as we approach Sunday evening.

Mr. Ypsi · February 27, 2008, 10:36:23 PM

airball, Sunday evening is when WE no doubt go crazy with predictions, but the NCAA won't reveal the brackets until Monday.

pabegg · February 27, 2008, 11:05:01 PM

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on February 27, 2008, 10:36:23 PM
airball, Sunday evening is when WE no doubt go crazy with predictions, but the NCAA won't reveal the brackets until Monday.

But 1 believe that on the women's side we will know the teams Sunday night, if I understood the talk on Hoopsville correctly.

bbald eagle · February 28, 2008, 09:41:56 AM

Quote from: Mr. Ypsi on February 27, 2008, 03:22:12 PM
Quote from: bbald eagle on February 27, 2008, 03:00:42 PM
The NCAAs regional rankings seem to have the teams overall records in the regional record category instead of the overall record category and vise versa

http://www.ncaasports.com/basketball/womens/polls/rankings/diviii

is it possible that regional rankings were compiled using the wrong data?

If so, they corrected it by the time I looked.

D3Hoops Daily Dose listing of the women's regional rankings incorporates the uncorrected version of the NCAA's rankings

http://www.d3hoops.com/dailydose/2008/02/27/ncaas-third-regional-rankings

Pat Coleman · February 28, 2008, 05:05:11 PM

I'll change the headers at some point. No big deal.

Just Bill · February 28, 2008, 09:19:45 PM

Watch out Bubble teams! #4 ranked UW-Whitewater is on the ropes:

http://www.uwwsports.com/Sports/wbball/2007/livestats/xlive.htm

sac · February 28, 2008, 09:36:49 PM

Quote from: Just Bill on February 28, 2008, 09:19:45 PM
Watch out Bubble teams! #2 ranked UW-Whitewater is on the ropes:

http://www.uwwsports.com/Sports/wbball/2007/livestats/xlive.htm

Whitewater is #4

buf · February 28, 2008, 11:11:41 PM

Whitewater lost tonight. One pool C bid gone!