FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

That's an interesting scenario, short.  While I highly doubt that any team with two regional losses is going to get in, should Otterbein slip again this weekend and Wooster wins their game against Wittenberg then Wooster would likely become the top regionally ranked Pool C candidate in the North region and would then be "on the table", so to speak, from the jump of the Pool C selection process.  Once in the discussion, who knows what might happen. 

[D3_DPUFan]

The folks at Trine getting fired up for the playoffs...

Trine kicking off NCAA championship bid with party


ANGOLA, Ind.—Trine University will celebrate an undefeated football season, Michigan Intercollegiate Athletic Association (MIAA) conference title, and National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) championship bid with a party and trophy presentation beginning at 2 p.m. Sunday in Fabiani Theatre and the University Center mall area.

The Thunder (9-0 overall, 6-0 MIAA) sealed the conference win and the Black and Blue Border Brawl traveling trophy with a 9-0 win over Adrian College in Adrian, Mich., on the road Saturday, Nov. 8. The win gave Trine its first MIAA football title and first NCAA Division III playoff berth.


Anchoring the celebration will be the announcement of the NCAA playoff pairings on ESPN. The party atmosphere will take over at 2 p.m., with music, food, and rallying chants led by the Trine cheerleaders. At 2:30 p.m., Trine head football coach Matt Land and athletic director Jeff Posendek will present the traveling trophy, awarded annually to the winner of the Trine-Adrian game, to Trine University President Dr. Earl D. Brooks II in Fabiani Theatre.

MIAA commissioner Dave Neilson will then present President Brooks and coach Land the MIAA conference title trophy. Neilson, an Albion College alumnus and the eighth appointed MIAA commissioner, will make comments on Trine's accomplishment. Neilson majored in physical education and economics at Albion, where he lettered four years in football at quarterback. He achieved All-America recognition as a senior, and was later drafted and played briefly for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Coach Land will also speak about the significance of the season and its dramatic turnaround from the 0-10 season just four years ago. Dr. Brooks will follow with words on the entire Trine community's pride in their team.

At 3 p.m., all attention will turn to the stage in the theater for the ESPN announcement of NCAA regional pairings. After a response to the match-up by the Trine athletic department, the event will wrap up at around 3:40 p.m.

Thunder coach Matt Land is a top pick for coach of the year on the Liberty Mutual Coach of the Year Web site. The Office of Student Life asks the public to join the Trine community in logging on to www.coachoftheyear.com and clicking on "vote now" to select Land for the honor.

[BashBacker#16]

Nice accomplishment for Trine (still think it is a horrible name...wow!), what is the MIAA's playoff record?

[HScoach]

^  They might as well as enjoy every minute of it as their ride will a short one

[wally_wabash]

Nice accomplishment for Trine (still think it is a horrible name...wow!), what is the MIAA's playoff record?

Since Albion stopped being awesome in the 90s, the MIAA is 0-fer. 

I think it's pretty cool what Trine is doing.  First time playoff team...it's easy to say things like "c'mon...act like you've been there before" but they haven't.  Earning a spot in the tournament is a great accomplishment, particularly if a team hasn't done it before and I think it's more than appropriate to celebrate it like this. 

Now if Trine starts dominating the MIAA and is a regular entrant in the championship field, then it might be time to put down the free champagne and look like you belong in the first class cabin.   

[SaintsFAN]

Nice accomplishment for Trine (still think it is a horrible name...wow!), what is the MIAA's playoff record?

Dude, they tri'n.... they just couldn't think of anything else.  Can you imagine if the big donor at that school had been a "Dahmer" or something??  WOW

[medicine man]

I am serious because I do not understand how it works...
do this weeks regional rankings help WOO?    IF (big IF) they beat Witt

1. Mount Union 8-0 9-0
2. North Central (Illinois) 9-0 9-0
3. Wabash 8-0 9-0
4. Trine 9-0 9-0
5. Case Western Reserve 8-0 9-0
6. Otterbein 8-1 8-1
7. Franklin 7-1 8-1
8. Wooster 5-2 7-2
9. Elmhurst 7-2 7-2
10. Aurora 8-1 8-1

[Blutarsky]

I think the overall strength of this region will cause one of the schools to be "shipped" to another region (MUC?), which will help Woo if they can win on Saturday.

[Schwami]

I think Woo would also need to see Otterbein lose to John Carroll.  If that happens, Woo may well be the top ranked Pool C team in the North, which means it will be one of four teams under consideration/discussion each time for each of the 6 Pool C slots.

Pool C selections are made before the bracketing is done, so this would not effect Woo's chances.  While there is a good chance a team is shipped East, it would not be surprising to see Thomas More moved from the South to the North.  There could also be movement of teams between the North and the West brackets.  It is not even beyond the realm of possibility that Wabash could be moved West.

[wally_wabash]

Wooster needs help.  Like I said, if Ott loses, Wooster probably becomes the top ranked Pool C eligible team and would be on the table for discussion at the very start.  Now I think for Wooster to get serious consideration any and probably all of the following need to happen:

John Carroll beats Otterbein
Cortland State beats Ithaca
UW-Lacrosse beats UW-Stevens Point
Randolph-Macon beats Hampden Sydney
Cal Lutheran beats Redlands

I think if those five things all happen, Wooster gets disucssed seriously.  But then again, so do other two loss teams like Rowan and Hartwick and Ithaca (given my hypothetical loss to Cortland).  The Scots are the longest of long shots to get in right now...but being a long shot is certainly better than having no shot at all.  

[Mr. Ypsi]

I think the overall strength of this region will cause one of the schools to be "shipped" to another region (MUC?), which will help Woo if they can win on Saturday.

That won't (directly, at least) affect Woo, since pool C is selected nationally, not regionally.  What IS relevant is that (assuming no change in the final (unseen) rankings) Woo should 'get to the table' fairly quickly, being behind only Ott in North pool C eligible schools.  (I am assuming that CWRU is a lock for pool B and won't slip to pool C consideration; all other schools ahead of Woo are pool A.)

IF UWSP and UWW both win, UWW should be the first C taken.  IF SJF beats Alfred, Ithaca becomes pool C (IF they defeat Cortland St - no easy task), and MIGHT beat out Ott for the second C slot.  But Ott (IF they beat JCU) should be gone by the third selection (at the latest), meaning that Woo then enters the discussion with at least three picks still remaining.  IF Woo beats Witt, I like their chances a lot better than seemed the case earlier.

Note, however, that there are a lot of IFs in that paragraph!

[medicine man]

Thanks everyone! 

We have to beat Witt first!   Not an easy task. Hope we have a good game.

Thanks again

[Superfoot Wallace]

Weather predictions for Saturday, medicine man?

regards,
the Mighty Kwinn

[wally_wabash]

Frank Rossi has posted just an outstanding step by step of how the selection process works.  I'll repost it here...the process should be pretty clear after reading this:

I posted this in the LLPP and thought some of you might want to read it.  I did it with respect to the questions we've been receiving concerning RPI's potential Pool C status.

This is an analysis of the state of affairs if Pool C were being picked today.  In order to perform this analysis, we must first square away some Pool A and Pool B issues.


Pool A Issues
-------------

As you know, Pool A represents 23 slots.  Currently, 14 of these slots have been determined (courtesy Pat Coleman's post on the Daily Dose):

ASC: Mary Hardin-Baylor
CC: Muhlenberg
CCIW: North Central
HCAC: Franklin
IIAC: Wartburg
MIAA: Trine
MWC: Monmouth
NCAC: Wabash
NJAC: Cortland State
NWC: Willamette
OAC: Mount Union
PAC: Thomas More
SCIAC: Occidental
SCAC: Millsaps

Only one of these teams (Thomas More) does not appear in the present NCAA Regional Rankings.  This weekend, the remaining nine slots will be filled this weekend.  Here is an analysis of those races (courtesy Ralph Turner in response to Pat Coleman's post):

E8 — SJF (4-1) must beat Alfred (3-2) to get the co-championship and the Pool A bid over Ithaca (5-1) which plays Cortland St.

LL — Hobart (5-1) must beat Rochester (3-3) to clinch the AQ. RPI (5-1) earns a co-championship with a win over Merchant Marine (1-5).

MAC — Albright (5-1) can clinch with a win over Del Valley (4-2). LebValley (4-2) and Lycoming (4-2) also play.

MIAC — Carleton (5-2) at SJU (5-2) for the outright title and Pool A bid.

NATHC — Aurora (6-0) hosts Lakeland (5-1) for the Pool A bid.

NEFC — Plymouth State at Maine Maritime in the NEFC Bowl.

ODAC — Catholic (4-1) hosts Bridgewater (2-3). A win gives them the AQ. H-SC (4-1) goes to Randolph-Macon (3-2).

USASouth — CNU (6-0) hosts Ferrum (5-1) for the AQ.

WIAC — UWSP (5-1) hosts UW-Lacrosse (3-3) to clinch the AQ. UW-Whitewater (5-1) is at Platteville (2-4).

From this list when cross-referenced with the new Rankings, there are only FOUR cases in which a present Pool C likely candidate could be converted into a Pool A winner:

1) Ithaca (SJF would not replace it as a Pool C candidate if SJF loses);
2) RPI (Hobart would not replace it as a Pool C candidate if Hobart loses);
3) Hampden-Sydney (Catholic would not replace it as a Pool C candidate if Catholic loses); and
4) UW-Whitewater (UW-Stevens Point COULD replace it as a Pool C candidate with a loss, although it would be a stretch).

Keep those scenarios in mind for later in this post.


Pool B Issues
-------------

Now, let's look at Pool B.  The likely choices for the three Pool B bids are:

1) Case Western Reserve (8-0 Regional, 9-0 Overall);
2) Wesley (3-1 Regional, 7-1 Overall); and
3) EITHER the winner of Huntingdon/LaGrange (H is 7-1 Regional, 8-1 Overall while L is 7-0 Regional, 8-1 Overall) OR Northwestern (Minn.) (8-1 Regional, 8-1 Overall).

I'll comment more on the Pool B third slot later only if it plays a role in the analysis.


How Pool C Works
------------------

So, now, let's look at how Pool C works.  There are six slots this year in Pool C.  The process generally utilized by the Selection Committe is to rank the Pool C nominees in each Region against the others in that Region before matching up the top Pool C seed in each of the four Regions.  The Committee will take the top team out of the four being reviewed, place it in Pool C and replace that team with the next highest seed in that Region's Pool C seedings.  This repeats until all six teams are selected.

Using this week's Regional Rankings, here is the likely seeding of each region's Pool C nominees:

East:

1) Ithaca, 2) Montclair, 3) RPI, 4) Hartwick, 5) Rowan and 6) Curry

North:

1) Otterbein, 2) Wooster and 3) Elmhurst

South:

1) Hardin-Simmons, 2) Hampden-Sydney, 3) Wash. & Jeff. and 4) The Winner of LaGrange/Huntingdon if not chosen for Pool C

West:

1) UW-Whitewater, 2) Redlands and 3) Northwestern (Minn.) if not chosen for Pool C


Pool C Selection
---------------

Now it is time to go through the six rounds for Pool C selection:

Round 1
--------
(Note:  Opp. W/L is the regional W/L record of the final opponent for that team, since these numbers have yet to be figured into the team's OWP)

                           Reg.    All                                 Opp.
Team          Region       W/L     W/L        OWP         OOWP         W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ithaca         East        7-1     8-1        .540        .544         9-0
Otterbein      North       8-1     8-1        .465        .545         5-4
Hardin-Simmons South       9-1     9-1        .511        .512         ---
UW-Whitewater  West        7-1     8-1        .509        .568         4-4

Remember that for these purposes, we are assuming all teams considered will win this Saturday.  At this point, the likelihood is that since Otterbein's only loss was to Mount Union this season, it will likely receive the first Pool C bid.  We will award Otterbein and replace it with Wooster. 


Round 2
--------
                           Reg.    All                                 Opp.
Team          Region       W/L     W/L        OWP         OOWP         W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ithaca         East        7-1     8-1        .540        .544         9-0
Wooster        North       6-2     7-2        .584        .473         5-2
Hardin-Simmons South       9-1     9-1        .511        .512         ---
UW-Whitewater  West        7-1     8-1        .509        .568         4-4

This appears to be a pretty close call between Ithaca, Hardin-Simmons and UW-Whitewater.  Each of these teams have the teams representing each of their only losses already in the tournament via Pool A.  In this situation, my belief is that UW-Whitewater, because of its defending National Champion status, is selected at this stage.  We will roll Redlands into UW-Whitewater's slot.


Round 3
--------
                           Reg.    All                                 Opp.
Team          Region       W/L     W/L        OWP         OOWP         W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ithaca         East        7-1     8-1        .540        .544         9-0
Wooster        North       6-2     7-2        .584        .473         5-2
Hardin-Simmons South       9-1     9-1        .511        .512         ---
Redlands       West        7-1     7-1        .464        .489         6-2

The two teams that jump out are the two remaining from our discussion in Round 2:  Ithaca and Hardin-Simmons.  Ithaca would have had a quality win vs. Cortland that will raise its OWP above .560 (although this could change based on prior opponents' results).  The numbers and quality win place Ithaca easily into this slot.  Let's roll Montclair St. into Ithaca's spot.


Round 4
--------
                           Reg.    All                                 Opp.
Team          Region       W/L     W/L        OWP         OOWP         W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montclair St.  East        8-1     8-1        .474        .535         6-3
Wooster        North       6-2     7-2        .584        .473         5-2
Hardin-Simmons South       9-1     9-1        .511        .512         ---
Redlands       West        7-1     7-1        .464        .489         6-2

Hardin-Simmons should win in this scenario based on its one-loss status and decent OWP and OOWP numbers.  Wooster's second loss and OOWP don't allow it to be picked at this stage, even though both of its losses came against undefeated teams (inflating its OWP already).  Roll out Hardin-Simmons and roll in Hampden-Sydney.


Round 5
--------
                           Reg.    All                                 Opp.
Team          Region       W/L     W/L        OWP         OOWP         W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montclair St.  East        8-1     8-1        .474        .535         6-3
Wooster        North       6-2     7-2        .584        .473         5-2
Hampden-Sydney South       7-1     8-1        .616        .514         4-3
Redlands       West        7-1     7-1        .464        .489         6-2

Hampden-Sydney's OWP will remain pretty stable, so this is a problem scenario for Montclair St. in a comparison.  Wooster's problem is still that the OWP of the teams it actually beat is low, so I can't see Wooster selected here.  Therefore, I have to give the nod to Hampden-Sydney at this point and roll Washington & Jefferson into its slot.


Round 6
--------
                           Reg.    All                                 Opp.
Team          Region       W/L     W/L        OWP         OOWP         W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Montclair St.  East        8-1     8-1        .474        .535         6-3
Wooster        North       6-2     7-2        .584        .473         5-2
Wash. & Jeff.  South       7-1     8-1        .377        .516         3-4
Redlands       West        7-1     7-1        .464        .489         6-2

Each of these teams has some issues we must look at.  First, Montclair's OWP is not the strongest on the board.  However, this week's game against Kean will help propel it closer to .500.  Wooster's second loss and artificial OWP (call this subjective, or call it common sense to give only partial weight to two losses to undefeated teams) with a pretty low OOWP does not help it still.  Wash. & Jeff. is looking pretty ugly at a .377 OWP (which won't improve much this weekend, if at all).  This is the lowest OWP we have seen so far.  Finally, Redlands will have numbers competitive to Montclair -- however, there are two problems.  First, the OOWP numbers will be below Montclair's numbers no matter what.  Second, there may be eight West Bracket teams already at this point.  A ninth West team would force a flight for every round that a "shipping" school would remain in the playoffs.  From my discussion with Mr. Kaiser, it seems like this year, more than any other, this could be an issue.  For these reasons, I believe Montclair gets selected in this round.  I will roll RPI into its slot for comparison's sake, as I know that question is forthcoming.



Final State of the Board
-----------------------
                           Reg.    All                                 Opp.
Team          Region       W/L     W/L        OWP         OOWP         W/L
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
RPI            East        7-1     7-1        .495        .526         2-7
Wooster        North       6-2     7-2        .584        .473         5-2
Wash. & Jeff.  South       7-1     8-1        .377        .516         3-4
Redlands       West        7-1     7-1        .464        .489         6-2

Note that out of these teams, the only one with a respectable out-of-conference win is Redlands (over 6-3 Whitworth).  Looking at the numbers and based on previous discussions in this post, I believe that RPI would be the 33rd team (i.e., the best team not selected) if there are no upsets this weekend involving the teams selected ahead of them or the vulnerable Pool A teams in those same teams' conferences.


As a review, the six Pool C teams at this time appear to be:

1) Otterbein, 2) UW-Whitewater, 3) Ithaca, 4) Hardin-Simmons, 5) Hampden-Sydney and 6) Montclair St.


What RPI Needs to Happen
--------------------------
RPI would stand a very decent chance of making the NCAA Playoffs if any of these scenarios occurred this weekend (or virtually a 100% chance if two or more occurred), assuming Hobart and RPI both win:

1) Cortland beats Ithaca (Ithaca removed from Pool C with loss);
2) Alfred beats St. John Fisher (Ithaca removed from Pool C with Pool A win);
3) John Carroll beats Otterbein (Otterbein removed from Pool C with loss);
4) UW-Platteville beats UW-Whitewater (UW-Whtiewater removed from Pool C with loss);
5) UW-La Crosse beats UW-Stevens Point (UW-Whitewater removed from Pool C with Pool A win)*;
6) Randolph-Macon beats Hampden-Sydney (Hampden-Sydney removed from Pool C with loss);
7) Kean beats Montclair St. (Montclair St. removed from Pool C with loss); or
8) Bridgewater (Va.) beats Catholic (Hampden-Sydney removed from Pool C with Pool A win).

* - UW-Steven's Point COULD be considered with two losses for Pool C, although their selection would be unlikely.

Again, for safety, RPI needs to root for at least TWO of these scenarios.  If one occurs, there is a possibility for a subjective or objective analysis to knock it out of the Pool C debate when it finally reaches the board (i.e., after Ithaca and/or Montclair are picked to allow for RPI discussions).

[Schwami]

Yes, Wooster gets to the Pool C table, but as long as they are the only 2-loss team at the table, the discussion won't last very long.  Wooster will need to hope for a lot of upsets this week (and hope that they are not one of them).