FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[firstdown]

Wes,

That's a great post.  Spot on.

Wabash Always Fights!

Did you guys see the hit CJ Gum put on the O-lineman in the 2nd half!!!  WOW.  We need to get that on youtube.  Also, that was a pathetic call on Koop - the helmet-to-helmet.

...can't wait for next Saturday!!!

The Back Judge Paul Hadad should be ashamed of himself for the call on Koop.  Since when is hard hitting "unnecessary."  Hadad was 20 yards aways when he made the call. 

[smedindy]

And may we take a moment to reflect that D-3 actually crowns a champ the right way. With a playoff system the chaos of last night in D-1A would have been as intriguing, but as it stands now it's anti-climactic at the end of the line with one team having to do nothing in the way of a conference championship game to make it there.

And can you imagine the drama for a "Pool C" bid in 1-A. It's either the playoffs or the Citrus Bowl....

[BayernFan]

It's Sunday.  The day is almost half over in fact.  Where will Wabash play next week?  Have I missed the announcement?

[wabndy]

It's Sunday.  The day is almost half over in fact.  Where will Wabash play next week?  Have I missed the announcement?

It's not on the NCAA's website. You'll even note on their bracket that they only have game start times for second round matchups where both schools are in the same timezone.  It's either that or somebody is thinking about not giving Wabash and Whitewater a second round home game.

http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/football/d3

[Li'l Giant]

Clicking on the "Game Details" yields this page.

I'm not sure the order means anything. But it at least has a time.

[Schwami]

12:00A.M.?  Midnight Football!

[Li'l Giant]

Nice catch. Everyone point your cell phones at the field!!!!

[USee]

I'm not sure Wabash has faced the same sort of rushing attacks that IWU has over the course of the year. NCC, Elmhurst, Milikin, even North Park all have very good rushing attacks in one of the premier DIII conferences. That and I think the season has born out that Redlands was definitely the anomaly of the year for North Central.

Not meant to be a knock on Wabash, just noting that given the drastic difference in SOS numbers, those stats might not tell the full story.

Look, I'm really not trying to knock North Central here, but there is a degree of "we haven't played anybody nearly this good" for both teams. 

I'm not going to buy the argument that Wabash won't stop them because the opponents NCC has seen played a tougher schedule.  Yes, the NCAC isn't as good as the CCIW.  We all realize that.  However, I'm not going to buy the argument that because IWU played Elmhurst and North Park, who combined for less wins than Wabash, that they're their rushing defense numbers are worse.  North Park has as many wins in the last five years as Wabash has in this one season.  That's not really relevant.

My honest opinion is that Wabash is going to struggle to move it.  That's what happens to their system against really good teams.  A  decent defense can make things really tough for that offense.  I've been on the record with this several times.  That said, North Central isn't going to show up and just run it down Wabash's throat.  Hammer is too good.  Gum is too good.  Teams just don't run it for 300 on the LGs.  It's been that way for a long time.  Hasn't happened in the Raeburn era.  Only happened against Whitewater in the last five years.

Like smed said, either Wabash is ready to take the next step as a program or not.  Either you're elite, or you're a routine 10-0 that can't handle the playoffs.  Saturday's going to tell us a lot.  If Wabash is truly an elite D3 program, they need to win one of these against a premiere football team.

Wes,

Great post but I think you are missing the point. This isn't about Wabash, CJ and the pride of Raeburn's era. North Central isn't going to win or lose the game based on NCC's ground numbers. The fact is North Central is a running team. They run the ball 70% of the time and throw it 30%. There isn't a single team in the NCAC that runs the ball more than they pass it (Wabash is the closest at almost exactly 50/50). It's not what you are used to seeing. It's not what we see out college offenses at all these days. If Wabash holds NCC to 280 yds of offense I think the Little Giants fans would accept that outcome. That means NCC runs it for 200 yds because that's what they do. Running the ball for NCC isn't something you can get them to stop doing. They average 41 rushes a game and 7.0 yards per rush. Bash can limit them to 60% of that average and still give up 200 yds.

Let's look at 2 examples:

Ironically, Augustana played NCC closer than any other CCIW team this season. They came out in a 46 (Bear) defense and committed to stopping the run. The game was 10-3 with 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter. NCC went on a 9 play, 75 yd scoring drive to make it 17-3. They ran it for 7 plays and passed 2 times. A late pick 6 made the final 24-3.

Vs. Wheaton, NCC gained 45 yds rushing by halftime. Wheaton was absolutely committed to stopping the run. NCC finished with 275 yds rushing. It's not because Wheaton sucks, it's because NCC is going to run the ball 40-50 times.

They average 7 yds per carry. If the LG's hold them to 4 yds per carry (which would be pretty good) that's still 160-200 yds rushing. This is a team that will run the ball for 4 quarters. They have 3 qbs and 2 of them are great runners with designed runs. They will run with 2 TE's most of the time and formation you to death to find matchups in the running game they like. It's not like they  run the outside and inside zone and a little bit of option. They game plan the run like most teams game plan the pass. They have the ability to attack any gap and isolate almost any player to make a tackle. Probably one of the most sophisticated running games you will see at the D3 level. You may make the tackle 9 times and the 10th their athlete's make you miss and it's a 40 yd run. There is no shame in it.

Can Wabash beat North Central? absolutely they can. I have seen Wabash play a number of times live and on video. I watched their game Saturday. They keep getting better players and have improved every year. In 2009 I expected IWU to win by 2 scores. My opinion was based on watching many of the same players get blown out by Wheaton in 2008. That same group took a pretty good IWU team to double OT and arguably should have won. Wabash has gotten better as a program every year since ER took over. Bash's D gives up 3.7 yards per play. I don't care who you are playing, that's pretty darn good. NCC's defense gives up 3.9 yds per play  and we all think they are pretty good on defense. The Purple Power's defenses that played for the title are all right in the 3.6-3.9 yds per play range over the past decade. The perception that they aren't a top team is a false one in my mind. Wabash has a lot of great players on their roster. It will take a signature win to convince people but I am pretty sure the Bash is a lot closer than anyone outside of Indiana gives them credit for.

NCC's achilles heel is their ability to pass when they have to. If the LG's can somehow get a lead and force North Central to play catch up in the 2nd half, I think they can win.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

I'm not sure Wabash has faced the same sort of rushing attacks that IWU has over the course of the year. NCC, Elmhurst, Milikin, even North Park all have very good rushing attacks in one of the premier DIII conferences. That and I think the season has born out that Redlands was definitely the anomaly of the year for North Central.

Not meant to be a knock on Wabash, just noting that given the drastic difference in SOS numbers, those stats might not tell the full story.

Look, I'm really not trying to knock North Central here, but there is a degree of "we haven't played anybody nearly this good" for both teams. 

I'm not going to buy the argument that Wabash won't stop them because the opponents NCC has seen played a tougher schedule.  Yes, the NCAC isn't as good as the CCIW.  We all realize that.  However, I'm not going to buy the argument that because IWU played Elmhurst and North Park, who combined for less wins than Wabash, that they're their rushing defense numbers are worse.  North Park has as many wins in the last five years as Wabash has in this one season.  That's not really relevant.

My honest opinion is that Wabash is going to struggle to move it.  That's what happens to their system against really good teams.  A  decent defense can make things really tough for that offense.  I've been on the record with this several times.  That said, North Central isn't going to show up and just run it down Wabash's throat.  Hammer is too good.  Gum is too good.  Teams just don't run it for 300 on the LGs.  It's been that way for a long time.  Hasn't happened in the Raeburn era.  Only happened against Whitewater in the last five years.

Like smed said, either Wabash is ready to take the next step as a program or not.  Either you're elite, or you're a routine 10-0 that can't handle the playoffs.  Saturday's going to tell us a lot.  If Wabash is truly an elite D3 program, they need to win one of these against a premiere football team.

Wes,

Great post but I think you are missing the point. This isn't about Wabash, CJ and the pride of Raeburn's era. North Central isn't going to win or lose the game based on NCC's ground numbers. The fact is North Central is a running team. They run the ball 70% of the time and throw it 30%. There isn't a single team in the NCAC that runs the ball more than they pass it (Wabash is the closest at almost exactly 50/50). It's not what you are used to seeing. It's not what we see out college offenses at all these days. If Wabash holds NCC to 280 yds of offense I think the Little Giants fans would accept that outcome. That means NCC runs it for 200 yds because that's what they do. Running the ball for NCC isn't something you can get them to stop doing. They average 41 rushes a game and 7.0 yards per rush. Bash can limit them to 60% of that average and still give up 200 yds.

Let's look at 2 examples:

Ironically, Augustana played NCC closer than any other CCIW team this season. They came out in a 46 (Bear) defense and committed to stopping the run. The game was 10-3 with 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter. NCC went on a 9 play, 75 yd scoring drive to make it 17-3. They ran it for 7 plays and passed 2 times. A late pick 6 made the final 24-3.

Vs. Wheaton, NCC gained 45 yds rushing by halftime. Wheaton was absolutely committed to stopping the run. NCC finished with 275 yds rushing. It's not because Wheaton sucks, it's because NCC is going to run the ball 40-50 times.

They average 7 yds per carry. If the LG's hold them to 4 yds per carry (which would be pretty good) that's still 160-200 yds rushing. This is a team that will run the ball for 4 quarters. They have 3 qbs and 2 of them are great runners with designed runs. They will run with 2 TE's most of the time and formation you to death to find matchups in the running game they like. It's not like they  run the outside and inside zone and a little bit of option. They game plan the run like most teams game plan the pass. They have the ability to attack any gap and isolate almost any player to make a tackle. Probably one of the most sophisticated running games you will see at the D3 level. You may make the tackle 9 times and the 10th their athlete's make you miss and it's a 40 yd run. There is no shame in it.

Can Wabash beat North Central? absolutely they can. I have seen Wabash play a number of times live and on video. I watched their game Saturday. They keep getting better players and have improved every year. In 2009 I expected IWU to win by 2 scores. My opinion was based on watching many of the same players get blown out by Wheaton in 2008. That same group took a pretty good IWU team to double OT and arguably should have won. Wabash has gotten better as a program every year since ER took over. Bash's D gives up 3.7 yards per play. I don't care who you are playing, that's pretty darn good. NCC's defense gives up 3.9 yds per play  and we all think they are pretty good on defense. The Purple Power's defenses that played for the title are all right in the 3.6-3.9 yds per play range over the past decade. The perception that they aren't a top team is a false one in my mind. Wabash has a lot of great players on their roster. It will take a signature win to convince people but I am pretty sure the Bash is a lot closer than anyone outside of Indiana gives them credit for.

NCC's achilles heel is their ability to pass when they have to. If the LG's can somehow get a lead and force North Central to play catch up in the 2nd half, I think they can win.

I agree. Bash is probably better they have been in recent years.  However so is NCC.  NCC is creeping up on the Purples for sure.  IMO this isn't the same NCC talent that Franklin took to wire in 2007 and beat in 2008.  Beatable by Bash yes. Likely no.

[USee]

Griz,

In my opinion, this NCC team is the best CCIW representative in the playoffs in over 10 years including last years NCC team that led UWW in the 4th quarter. The problem is this current NCC team is the same team that lost to Redlands in September. If that NCC team shows up they will lose to the LG's. If the NCC team that beat every team in the CCIW by 20+ shows up, they will be tough to beat by anyone. NCC is on the road through the rest of these playoffs with no more Dubuque's or Olivet's. They have nothing but top tier teams between them and the hardware. If they manage to win @Wabash, their reward is @UMU. If they manage to win there, the reward is @UMHB/Linfield/Wesley. If they can win there they get the booby prize in Salem. If all that happens, no one will dispute their claim of the title.

[Schwami]

Game Saturday is at Hollett!

http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/football/d3

[smedindy]

Big shock is that Linfield is the one traveling to Wesley.

[bashbrother]

Game Saturday is at Hollett!

http://www.ncaa.com/interactive-bracket/football/d3

Great news.... ridiculous and unnecessary drama created by the NCAA.....

The NCAA lists the game as being in "Wabash, IN"  which is wrong.   Wabash College is in "Crawfordsville, IN"     Isn't the NCAA HQ about 40 miles from Wabash College?     

If fans see this an drive to the actual Wabash, IN... they may be a bit disappointed.

[BashBacker#16]

No doubt Bashbro.  Crazy.

[smedindy]

I think a couple of basketball refs have done that exact thing in the past. Though it's not as bad as trying to find Austin College in Austin, TX.