FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[nike]

My original point was simply that OWU people have to be feeling good about where they are now compared to the last few years.  And be pleased with their choice as head coach. 
No one is talking championships or tournament bids---yet! 
Right now, the future is bright. 
My guess is although they may lose a game or two or three, that they will not get blown out or regress. 
People in the stands is an exciting thing.

[bashbrother]

No one is talking championships or tournament bids---yet! 

Don't make me pull out my "Jim Mora" clip this early in the season. 

[wally_wabash]

ww12, good notes on the defenses and I was actually looking some things up on that.  Do with the following whatever you please...

Wittenberg's four opponents and their national ranking in Total Offense through week 5:
Capital - 209 (of 239)
DePauw - 160
Wooster - 189
CWRU - 117

Wabash's opponents:
Hanover - 104
Denison - 127
Allegheny - 206
CMU - 26

Are Witt's defenisive numbers slightly skewed because they've seen a lot of really inept offenses?  Or do those offenses look inept statistically because of Wittenberg's defense?  Probably a little more of the former given that Wittenberg has impacted only 1 in 4 games from which those stats are compiled.  Not saying that Wittenberg's defense isn't good...I'm sure it is.  But some of that margin that you see in the defensive stats probably gets evened out a touch if we adjust for strength of opponent, but I'm nowhere near SABR savvy enough to get into that. 

[smedindy]

I think everyone is encouraged by the steps OWU has taken. With every league there is equilibrium, so some will have their stock go up (OWU, Kenyon, Gheny with the big win) and some will have their stock go down (Wooster, DPU, Oberlin to some extent). 

I definitely could see OWU go to CMU as a 6-0 team, end the year at 6-4 and still have to think it's a great success story. It's a darn tough backload to the schedule for them.

[smedindy]

It's hard to say 'it's early' but still one bad or good game can affect things a bit. The opponents effect may need a couple of games to wash out.

What is known though is that three of Witt's opponents have been train wrecks on offense for the majority of the season. Wabash's opponents numbers may be an illusion as well. Hanover's big numbers were against week HCAC defenses. Gheny's had their best game of the year by far against Wabash (!).

I think both teams will bring it on defense.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Thanks for the Link to the NCAA Stats Wally Here is how Depauw and OWU Compare. Again thanks to Wally I quoted his post and stole the Table formatting and plugged in the figures for OWU and DePauw.

Stat	OWU	Nat'l Rank	DePauw	Nat'l Rank
RushO	73.5	217	98.25	189
PassO	216.25	10	236	87
TotalO	411.50	60	321.5	160
ScoringO	31.5	64	17.25	181
RushD	74.25	17	155.25	135
PassEff.D	138.36	177	168.27	232
TotalD	343.75	105	438.5	217
ScoringD	21.00	81	37.00	216
NetPunting	32.84	100	30.08	166
PuntRet	2.23	225	8.60	99
KORet	18.76	145	19.68	122
TOMargin	2.00	t-11	-1.00	t-187
PassD	269.50	218	283.25	225
PassEff	139.06	68	104.08	183
Sacks	4	t-1	1.75	t-138
TFL	8.25	29	8.75	19
SacksAgainst	3	t-186	2	120

[wally_wabash]

I definitely could see OWU go to CMU as a 6-0 team, end the year at 6-4 and still have to think it's a great success story. It's a darn tough backload to the schedule for them.

This is an interesting scenario.  How many years have we seen OWU struggle out of the gate, then finish up with wins against Hiram/Kenyon/Oberlin and then hear about "momentum"?  The word makes our buddy aueagle ill.  How does the narrative change if OWU starts off by beating the down teams and then takes some lumps to end the season?  The end result, as ETP has so aptly pointed out, is that OWU hasn't done anything that they haven't done before and if it plays out as you suggest, that'll hold true when we get to November 11. It'll be interesting to see how the tone is different if OWU does go 0-4 or 1-3 to end the year (I really don't think they'll lose to Wooster though...OWU is a better team right now I believe). 

All of that said I do think it's different in Delaware now.  Different attitude, different culture, different approach.  The one result that is different this year so far is the CWRU result.  They haven't played CWRU since the 2009 season, but they lost 55-7 there, so there is some obvious improvement there (along with some CWRU regression, yes). 

[Wabash Hokie]

Ex-Tartan,

I agree with your and Wally's comments about gaining confidence, etc. - I'm just pointing out that we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves here and assume they are "back."  There is a lot of football to be played.  As easy as Wally says they could be 1 upset away from playing for a league championship, they could also finish 5-5. 

Those Wabash/Witt comparisons are pretty scary with regards to saying "on paper" these two teams look very evenly matched.  I'm expecting within a touchdown either way and it just might be a field goal at the wire...  I'm going to make another prediction here with regards to personnel.  Buresh and Akinribade have gotten a lot of the early pub (rightfully so) as part of the Wabash LB corps, I predict that Nate Scola leads that group on Saturday - maybe a key strip, a big hit, a big sack, etc.

WAF

Given the above statement, I also predict that Scola will get at least one personal foul on Saturday.  He lives on the edge and, in the end, I hope it doesn't cost us.  Scola's roughing the kicker penalty vs CMU had Raeburn in the face of one of his assistants.  I don't know if it was because it was the second major breakdown for a special team (after an earlier CMU punt return for a TD) or if he was just generally pissed off. However, I think Scola was the one who blocked a punt later in the game.  He also came very close to getting a flag on a late hit after an incomplete pass but did not drive through the receiver.  I am all for playing with intensity but a 15 yarder vs Witt could be a game changer.

[smedindy]

I misread the OWU schedule and though they ended with Witt. They get to skip Witt this year, so 7-3 is probably more likely if they don't suddenly veer off their course. And they could wind up beating Allegheny as well. The Gators certainly didn't dominate Oberlin Saturday.

[WABCOL86]

Hokie:

I was standing down at that end of the field when Scola rolled into the punter.  He had been pushed in the back by a CMU guy on the play.  So, it wasn't like he dove right into the guy.  A better question to ask in that situation was was why any type of rush was on when we were looking at getting outstanding field position.  None of us there could understand that part of it.  Just my two cents...

[BashBacker#16]

Scola plays hard and is an intense player but I definitely don't think he a "dirty" player - there is a big difference.  CJ was certainly ALWAYS on the edge as well.  McKinley crossed the line in my opinion for 4 straight years.  Scola will be fine on that front.

On the Belton vs Florence matchup...  Florence is just coming on to the scene where Belton has definitely accomplished more.  His win/loss record is well known (is it 22-2 now?).  You could look at this 2 ways; this Saturday is a great opportunity for Chase Belton to make a name for himself and a lasting legacy on his career.  On the flip side, this is a great opportunity for Florence to establish himself - certainly for things to come.  It is also well known how big of a recruit Chase was for Witt.  Just another interesting piece for Saturday.

Dudes - it's only Tuesday...  UGH!!!

[bashbrother]

All really Good middle linebackers are intense,  kind of like good downhill skiers,  they live life on the edge and are close to losing it on every play.    As we saw from CJ over a couple of intense years,  the good definitely out-weighed the bad.   This is football after all and you take the good that intensity brings with the not so good.   We are truly lucky to have Scola roaming the middle this year,  he will be just fine.

[nike]

WOW! Chase is from Dayton/Springfield area.   More drama.  Bragging rights.  Would love to hear why he chose Wabash over Witt.  Probably more than just wanting to get away from home.
Always thought Belton was 6'1" or 6'2".  Listed at 5'10".   He certainly looks bigger on the field and certainly on the internet. 

[wally_wabash]

Would love to hear why he chose Wabash over Witt. 

Because he has a habit of being right.   

[bashbrother]

Well deserved honor for Mr. Belton on his tremendous game on Saturday.

http://www.d3football.com/awards/tow/2012/week5

Also Congrats to fellow NCAC'er, Rudy DeStefano LB Allegheny