FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[smedindy]

Say goodnight, Gracie. It's the final week of the NCAC / UAA Scheduling Agreement. Some will be quite pleased, others, not so much. But there are a full slate of those contests on the NCAC slate this week.

NCAC / UAA

Case Western Reserve (3-3) @ Oberlin (2-4) - Well, welcome back Josh Mandel. The Yeomen missed you. Mandel called Robin Witjes' number time and again against Denison and it paid off big time. The result was a 30-6 shellacking that could have been worse had Oberlin's kicker been more accurate. The Spartans will know they need to prepare for Mandel and Witjes, and after a bye week will no doubt be ready. Case's wins are looking more and more bleah with age (three point wins against Marietta and Wooster aren't exactly earth shattering). The Spartans were so close against OWU and Witt, though, and really could be 5-1 as well as 1-5. Oberlin, again, needs to stay close and not get worn down by their lack of numbers, but the addition of their team leader back at QB gives them a boost that may propel them to the upset. I wouldn't be surprised if it's a one score game, nor would I be surprised if Case rolls out to a lead and grinds down the Yeomen.

Washington U. (1-5) @ Denison (2-4) - Two of the most disappointing teams in each conference match up here. Denison can't really stop anyone and has to put up serious offensive numbers to prevail. Their loss to Oberlin has to have them looking closely at themselves. Wash U. has been undone by a few plays here or there in a couple of games and seemingly has enough talent on both sides of the ball to stick around for a while. A team that loses to Coe by just three should have more than one win, though. I have a feeling the Big Red will assert itself on offense and try to build an early lead against the Bears. One team will feel slightly better about its season after this one.

Chicago (3-3) @ Hiram (0-6) - Hiram's scoring a few more points this season. Not enough, but a couple of TDs here and there in each game is a better than nothing. The Maroons have the same record as Case but are sneakily decent, since their losses were to Witt (on the rebound after a loss - never a good time to face the Old Tigers), Concordia - Chicago (6-0) and Elmhurst (a 5-1 CCIW team). Chicago's offense has been surprisingly tepid though, but that's nothing a good dose of Terriers' defense couldn't fix.

Ohio Wesleyan (6-0) @ Carnegie - Mellon (5-1) - We've talked about this quite a bit. For me, it boils down to how much you truly believe in the emergence of the Bishops or if their schedule has papered over some of their flaws. It's a bit of both for me. They're good, not great, and good is good enough this year in the NCAC. (Massey hates the NCAC this year, BTW, and I can't say that I blame them.) The Tartans line-up after a bye week and a good rebound performance against Denison. If CMU has some of their key players back from injuries, the Bishops will have to really strain to keep up with the Tartans' offense. They have a much better chance of that now than in the past, though.

NCAC Games

Kenyon (2-1, 3-3) @ DePauw (0-3, 1-5) - Say what you will about the New Tigers' coaching kerfuffle, they've played a lot better after their embarrassing start to the season. Still, they lost a game when they held a team under 200 yards. That's not easy to do unless it's in dire weather conditions. Even by playing 'better' they're still on track for a rotten record. OWU exposed the Lords last week as a product of their schedule and DPU probably has the raw talent to do the same. It's just that I can't trust this group of New Tigers to do the right things at the right time to secure a win. I think they need to blow Kenyon out early or they may feel deja vu all over again.

Wooster (1-2, 2-4) @ Wabash (2-1, 5-1) - The Scots have to get in line with Denison, DPU and Oberlin in the "NCAC teams that have really disappointed" this season. Their turnover bug has seemingly gotten worse and this year their defense has abandoned them in key situations. The LG's survived their UAA "Trap" and are now back on NCAC ground. I do not think they'll look anywhere past the Scots especially now since they're in 'win or stay home' mode for any playoff chances. It could get ugly in C'ville if Wooster puts the ball on the ground like they've been known to do.

Wittenberg (2-1, 5-1) @ Allegheny (3-0, 4-2) - A hoary, awful cliche is saying 'they just know how to win'. You could trot that out for the Gators, but they easily could be 1-5 instead of 4-2 and just going through the motions. Offensively they're less than impressive. On defense, though, they can play, and that's partly the reason they're 4-2. Witt shook off the demons and blasted Chicago with 581 yards of offense. They won't get that total against the Gators but I think the Old Tigers defense will stifle Allegheny enough for them to coast by. Of course, I felt that way about Wabash and Allegheny and look what happened there.

[wally_wabash]

There are 75 individual players in D3 that account for more total offense than Allegheny has as an entire team this season.  Digest that for a bit this morning.

Interesting Wally.  Going down smooth with my coffee right now.

What were the offensive yardage totals for each team for the 'Gheny/'Bash game?

AC - 353 yards total offense
WC - 293 yards total offense

That 353 for Allegheny is by far their biggest offensive output of the season. 

[nike]

Their inclusion in the conversation with playoff teams is a self-fulfilling prophesy, no?  There's a great quote from The Social Network that goes "If you guys had invented facebook, you would have invented facebook."  OWU is in the playoff conversation now because (as of now) they are in the playoff conversation.
Posted by: ExTartanPlayer
« on: Today at 08:54:33 am »

Nothing that happens on the 27th at Selby will in any way diminish  what the Bishops have done this year.  Nothing.  Their season so far is the the highlight of the NCAC this year.  ExTartan's post was very insightful.  They have created this stir themselves.
Watts has already copped Coach of the Year, in my opinion.  Who else can it be?  And who else is giving Belton any competition for offensive POY?  At least at this point in the season.
And as mentioned earlier, this is just the beginning.  Imagine the number of high school players they will get to the Wabash game.  The atmosphere alone will be nothing like Delaware has seen in recent times--at least that is my hope for the Bishop faithful. 
And to top it off, Espinosa is an undercassman.  OWU is really just getting started.
Premature?  Maybe.  But that is O.K.
Wish the 27th was under the lights.  But, one cannot have everything.

[wally_wabash]

I've gone through the process, made the picks, so now here's some quick commentary on this week's big games. 

OWU/CMU - So much interesting stuff around this game.  OWU, as BashDad correctly asserts, has only beaten teams that any decent team should beat.  How different is the Oberlin game if Mandel doesn't get knocked out before the second half?  I think you really have to wonder.  But, as our Bishops fans have also pointed out correctly, OWU has gained the confidence that comes along with an extended winning streak.  But now the stakes get real.  OWU is seriously 10 days away from being a tournament team.  They're also 10 days away from playing the last two weeks just for the fun of it.  This weekend, I think OWU can score.  I also think CMU can score.  The game comes down to which defense figures it out first and gets a few stops.  I think it's easier for CMU to dial up a pass rush and get to Espinosa than it is for OWU to figure out CMU's offense.  Remember, Wabash was helpless for one quarter against that offense.  It'll be interesting to see what happens if OWU has to chase a deficit...the biggest margin they've had to make up was 4 points against Oberlin.  Could they take a 21-point punch from CMU and come back?  I just don't know that they can. 

Wooster/Wabash - I don't know what Belton's status is for Saturday, but I'm not sure it matters a bunch.  If he isn't able to go, Walsh will have had the week of work with the first unit and will be adequately prepared.  Wabash is going to run.  I think we know that at this point.  Barnes is the mystery piece that can beat you, but I think Wabash can employ a similar containment plan this week as they did against Reed Florence (it worked extremely well) and I don't think Wooster has a second option as good as Witt's Dehnke to generate offense and draw Wabash's attention away from Barnes.  Ponits are going to be really hard to come by for the Scots on Saturday. 

Witt/Allegheny - Witt isn't the same team on the road, but Allegheny's struggles have not been geographically biased.  If Witt takes care of the football, I'm not sure where the Gators can get enough points to win here.  This is the week that the other shoe drops for Allegheny. 

[wally_wabash]

Watts has already copped Coach of the Year, in my opinion.  Who else can it be?  And who else is giving Belton any competition for offensive POY?  At least at this point in the season.

Whoa whoa whoa.  Maybe we should pump the brakes on postseason awards.  There are still four games left.  I'd like to see what Tom Watts dials up against Raeburn and Matlak before giving him a trophy.  Does Tom Watts get a COY award if Raeburn composes a game plan that turns Espinosa over 4 times and beats OWU by 4 TDs?  I would hope not. 

Espinosa/Belton for OPOY...Espinosa is accumulating stats through sheer volume.  And STILL Chase Belton has more passing TDs than does Espinosa, and Belton leads the league in rushing TDs.  This isn't a competition right now.  If Belton starts missing games and Espinosa's production doesn't wane as the competition level gets bumped up (a lot) over the last month of the season here, then there may be a compelling conversation in November.  At the moment, I don't think it is very close. 

[BashDad]

Nothing that happens on the 27th at Selby will in any way diminish  what the Bishops have done this year.  Nothing.  Their season so far is the the highlight of the NCAC this year.  ExTartan's post was very insightful.  They have created this stir themselves.
Watts has already copped Coach of the Year, in my opinion.  Who else can it be?  And who else is giving Belton any competition for offensive POY?  At least at this point in the season.
And as mentioned earlier, this is just the beginning.  Imagine the number of high school players they will get to the Wabash game.  The atmosphere alone will be nothing like Delaware has seen in recent times--at least that is my hope for the Bishop faithful. 
And to top it off, Espinosa is an undercassman.  OWU is really just getting started.
Premature?  Maybe.  But that is O.K.
Wish the 27th was under the lights.  But, one cannot have everything.

[smedindy]

Watts has already copped Coach of the Year, in my opinion.  Who else can it be?  And who else is giving Belton any competition for offensive POY?  At least at this point in the season.

Whoa whoa whoa.  Maybe we should pump the brakes on postseason awards.  There are still four games left.  I'd like to see what Tom Watts dials up against Raeburn and Matlak before giving him a trophy.  Does Tom Watts get a COY award if Raeburn composes a game plan that turns Espinosa over 4 times and beats OWU by 4 TDs?  I would hope not. 

You know, you gotta throw Chris Monfiletto in there, guys. If Kenyon is 4-6 or 5-5 after two straight 0-10 seasons, then he's got to be a serious candidate. Right now, he's in the team photo even if they go 3-7!

[wally_wabash]

Watts has already copped Coach of the Year, in my opinion.  Who else can it be?  And who else is giving Belton any competition for offensive POY?  At least at this point in the season.

Whoa whoa whoa.  Maybe we should pump the brakes on postseason awards.  There are still four games left.  I'd like to see what Tom Watts dials up against Raeburn and Matlak before giving him a trophy.  Does Tom Watts get a COY award if Raeburn composes a game plan that turns Espinosa over 4 times and beats OWU by 4 TDs?  I would hope not. 

You know, you gotta throw Chris Monfiletto in there, guys. If Kenyon is 4-6 or 5-5 after two straight 0-10 seasons, then he's got to be a serious candidate. Right now, he's in the team photo even if they go 3-7!

Good grief, how low is the bar for COY?  4-6 or 5-5 on a schedule that does not include Witt or Wabash and does include Earlham.  And a Mandel-less Oberlin.  Yes, that's a fantastic turnaround for a team that was in the dumps, but at what point does something like a conference championship matter?  If OWU wrangles a co-championship, that's got to count (he says minutes after dumping on Coach Watts).  Raeburn coached a team to victory AT Wittenberg.  Do you know how insanely hard that is?  Wittenberg hadn't lost in 19 games in their own stadium!  That's the biggest coaching acheivement that has happened in the league so far this year.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Watts has already copped Coach of the Year, in my opinion.  Who else can it be?  And who else is giving Belton any competition for offensive POY?  At least at this point in the season.

Whoa whoa whoa.  Maybe we should pump the brakes on postseason awards.  There are still four games left.  I'd like to see what Tom Watts dials up against Raeburn and Matlak before giving him a trophy.  Does Tom Watts get a COY award if Raeburn composes a game plan that turns Espinosa over 4 times and beats OWU by 4 TDs?  I would hope not. 

Espinosa/Belton for OPOY...Espinosa is accumulating stats through sheer volume.  And STILL Chase Belton has more passing TDs than does Espinosa, and Belton leads the league in rushing TDs.  This isn't a competition right now.  If Belton starts missing games and Espinosa's production doesn't wane as the competition level gets bumped up (a lot) over the last month of the season here, then there may be a compelling conversation in November.  At the moment, I don't think it is very close.

I agree I relly like what the Bishops have done this year so far. As I stated before I am cautiously optimistic. As curious as I am about the next two weeks and depending on the next two weeks results, I want to see how the team respond.

If they get beat bad by CMU and Wabas, do they fold up the tents or do they bounce back and fight hard the rest of the season.
IF they win or are close the next couple of games, do they continue to play hard or do they have letdowns the rest of the year because they already played their server. Championship.

[wally_wabash]

If they get beat bad by CMU and Wabas, do they fold up the tents or do they bounce back and fight hard the rest of the season.
IF they win or are close the next couple of games, do they continue to play hard or do they have letdowns the rest of the year because they already played their server.

Should they lose to CMU and Wabash, regardless of score, if they can beat Allegheny and Wooster they will win a share of a conference championship.  They will not earn an AQ and they will not make the playoffs, but they will get a conference championship trophy.  It would be easy to poo-poo a shared conference championship that doesn't come along with a ticket to the tournament, but I would remind everybody that a shared championship would be as good as OWU has ever done in this league.  There wouldn't be a good reason for OWU to pack it in.  More than anything, the next two weeks will give us something to gauge expectations for those games against Allegheny and Wooster. 

[sigma one]

Woo has to be kicking themselves down the pike.  They open with a  3-point loss to Allegheny, 17-14.  (Allegheny 20-Wabash 17) Then, they sneak past a disappointing St Vincent, 27-21.  Following that, they lose three in succession:  to Witt, 17-7, to Denison, 30-22, to CWR 31-28.  Among those, only Witt is showing power, and they often play Witt tough.  Four losses by a total of 24 points, with no loss greater than 10. A curiosity.  In Woo's six games Barnes has carried 75 times for 143 yds.  We know he slippery.  Wonder if the broken leg has changed him.  Also, among the running backs, Battaglia 36 runs for 148 yds; Tomcufcik 29 for 59; Ullman 17 for 109; and Miller, a freshman, 28 for 153 (5.5 ypc).  Promising start.  He gained 102 v. St Vincent. He has not made the stat sheet for several weeks.  Injured?   
     I'm slowly morphing into a Holtz, but I see no reason on Saturday they will not be a challenging out.  I also can see them collapsing on the road, but I just can't predict that. 
     Changing the topic.  As a Wabash fan and an advocate of a more balanced (by that, of course, I mean more stronger teams, not more weaker!) NCAC, I am happy to see OWU's progress in terms of wins. I can't imagine a year ago imagining that Wabash would go to Delaware for a game of this significance or that OWU would be running the table so far, no matter the opponents.  I'm sure, Holtz again, the Little Giants aren't going to find the Ohio Home for Wayward Boys.

[smedindy]

Watts has already copped Coach of the Year, in my opinion.  Who else can it be?  And who else is giving Belton any competition for offensive POY?  At least at this point in the season.

Whoa whoa whoa.  Maybe we should pump the brakes on postseason awards.  There are still four games left.  I'd like to see what Tom Watts dials up against Raeburn and Matlak before giving him a trophy.  Does Tom Watts get a COY award if Raeburn composes a game plan that turns Espinosa over 4 times and beats OWU by 4 TDs?  I would hope not. 

You know, you gotta throw Chris Monfiletto in there, guys. If Kenyon is 4-6 or 5-5 after two straight 0-10 seasons, then he's got to be a serious candidate. Right now, he's in the team photo even if they go 3-7!

Good grief, how low is the bar for COY?  4-6 or 5-5 on a schedule that does not include Witt or Wabash and does include Earlham.  And a Mandel-less Oberlin.  Yes, that's a fantastic turnaround for a team that was in the dumps, but at what point does something like a conference championship matter?  If OWU wrangles a co-championship, that's got to count (he says minutes after dumping on Coach Watts).  Raeburn coached a team to victory AT Wittenberg.  Do you know how insanely hard that is?  Wittenberg hadn't lost in 19 games in their own stadium!  That's the biggest coaching acheivement that has happened in the league so far this year.

Dude, it's how far you've gotten from A to B and what environment you are in in doing so. You have to look at it through several lenses.

I think a team that was 0-20 the last two seasons to be withing a fighting chance of .500 in a situation where there was serious, serious concerns about Kenyon just saying to hell with football is well worth of some accolades. It's not always about the champs in COY, otherwise you'd just award it to the coach that won the championship and not even vote.

More so in football, where you need to have time to build up your program, a leap of this magnitude is impressive. And they haven't done the Macalester thing and just bailed on the conference totally.

How far could any coach have taken Kenyon with what they had coming back, their recruiting issues and their institutional support? A team that had lost 23 in a row, including two to Hiram, and lost to Earlham three times in a row?

THAT has to count for a lot. Not saying he should win, but he shouldn't be dismissed and scoffed at because he took a chance to resurrect a team that was mostly dead.

[wally_wabash]

Watts has already copped Coach of the Year, in my opinion.  Who else can it be?  And who else is giving Belton any competition for offensive POY?  At least at this point in the season.

Whoa whoa whoa.  Maybe we should pump the brakes on postseason awards.  There are still four games left.  I'd like to see what Tom Watts dials up against Raeburn and Matlak before giving him a trophy.  Does Tom Watts get a COY award if Raeburn composes a game plan that turns Espinosa over 4 times and beats OWU by 4 TDs?  I would hope not. 

You know, you gotta throw Chris Monfiletto in there, guys. If Kenyon is 4-6 or 5-5 after two straight 0-10 seasons, then he's got to be a serious candidate. Right now, he's in the team photo even if they go 3-7!

Good grief, how low is the bar for COY?  4-6 or 5-5 on a schedule that does not include Witt or Wabash and does include Earlham.  And a Mandel-less Oberlin.  Yes, that's a fantastic turnaround for a team that was in the dumps, but at what point does something like a conference championship matter?  If OWU wrangles a co-championship, that's got to count (he says minutes after dumping on Coach Watts).  Raeburn coached a team to victory AT Wittenberg.  Do you know how insanely hard that is?  Wittenberg hadn't lost in 19 games in their own stadium!  That's the biggest coaching acheivement that has happened in the league so far this year.

Dude, it's how far you've gotten from A to B and what environment you are in in doing so. You have to look at it through several lenses.

I think a team that was 0-20 the last two seasons to be withing a fighting chance of .500 in a situation where there was serious, serious concerns about Kenyon just saying to hell with football is well worth of some accolades. It's not always about the champs in COY, otherwise you'd just award it to the coach that won the championship and not even vote.

How far could any coach have taken Kenyon with what they had coming back, their recruiting issues and their institutional support? A team that had lost 23 in a row, including two to Hiram, and lost to Earlham three times in a row?

THAT has to count for a lot.

Earlham, Hiram, Oberlin sans Josh Mandel.  If running that gauntlet gets you COY, then we probably could just do without COY.  Thunderous applause for Kenyon's coaching staff for winning some games, any games, in 2012.  But I can't buy that as a COY résumé, no matter how down and out they were last year.  MAYBE if they get to 5 or 6 league wins (and maybe toss in a road win or two while they're at it), I could buy it.  In 2005, Kenyon went 6-1 in league play.  They shocked the world!  Just two years earlier they played an independent schedule to protect the program.  What an incredible story of perserverance it was.  Ted Stanley waltzed off with the COY award that year, right?  I mean he had to, didn't he?  He didn't.  Chris Creighton, deservedly, won the award in 2005. 

[smedindy]

But Stanley probably had consideration, and that's ALL I was asking for. I wasn't going to vote for him myself. Can't a guy just offer up a name in the 'hey don't forget this?' Can't he be recognized without the qualifiers for taking a team that was DOA and at least giving it SOME life.

Lest ye forget in your smarmy snark, that 'time out' DID save the program for a while, they weren't awful in 2006 and put 70 on Grinnell in 2007 before somehow falling over a cliff with no return. What happened between week 1 of 2007 and 2011? That's a Kenyon insider question and unfortunately we don't have them. What I do see is that they've actually won some games and haven't been the victims of a poleaxing like they had in the past (yet).

[Li'l Giant]

In 2005, Kenyon went 6-1 in league play. 

And their league records the next 3 years were 3-4, 1-6 and 0-7. I realize that COY isn't about the future, and they certainly look better this year, but before we say their program has made a leap I'd like to see something sustained.