FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[BashDad]

Excuse 514 from the lil giants  side! I give up! His worst game because the OWU defense knocked Blanks out of the game! The great WC Defense gave Blanks twice his per game average! No wonder you think he is so good! Good luck to both sides and may everyone stay healthy.

Listen, dude. That's exactly why we think he's so good. You think, what, that the Wabash defense is poor? That's the answer you're going with?

Is Kalkstein the guy OWU pounded on Saturday?

I didn't know Espinosa played defense.

Some of you guys don't want to give the Bishops and Espinosa any credit at all for their season so far. No props at all. Wow!

Not saying that he and OWU deserves unbridled and unquestioned admiration is not congruent to no props. Settle down a bit.

Actually, I think BashDad falls into that category. I've been amazed for a week now at his utter refusal to be happy that someone in the league might actually be getting better and can raise the profile of the NCAC.

Pish posh. OWU being 7-0 may "raise the profile of the NCAC," whatever that does, but if they're pretenders—which they still might be—I don't see how that's a help to anybody. I mean, look, every year the NCAC has a third best team. Why are we geeking out so much that OWU might be that team this year? I just don't care. I don't care. I think it's all phony. A mirage. And, for the thousandth time, it's hard for me to "be happy" about the sudden rise of a team that doesn't play one of the top two teams in the league. Witt's absence only exacerbates my—somewhat playful—irritation that we're being asked to care about a team that beat Hiram, Depauw, Kenyon, Denison, Oberlin, and two teams from the UAA. How is this difficult to understand? You might think I'm an asshole, but my reasons for being one, even in jest, seem pretty clear (justified?) to me.  Beat Wabash on Saturday, or just stay within a couple touchdowns, and I'll be the first one logging in to give "props" to the massive, awe-inspiring, who-da-thunk-it sea change happening in Delaware.

[smedindy]

Meanwhile, is there a 'chance' that if Wabash beats OWU and then OWU beats Allegheny, that the NCAC could have THREE playoff teams?

I know Wally's the Pool C dude but if Wabash, Witt and OWU are all 9-1 and the carnage in the South and West and the CCIW continues, then is that realistic?

(Yes, that also assumes Wabash beats OWU and then wins out, and Witt wins out, but c'mon humor me here...)

[The_Bishop]

You might think I'm an asshole...

Pretty much.

[wally_wabash]

Meanwhile, is there a 'chance' that if Wabash beats OWU and then OWU beats Allegheny, that the NCAC could have THREE playoff teams?

I know Wally's the Pool C dude but if Wabash, Witt and OWU are all 9-1 and the carnage in the South and West and the CCIW continues, then is that realistic?

(Yes, that also assumes Wabash beats OWU and then wins out, and Witt wins out, but c'mon humor me here...)

Here's the Pool C situation in the NCAC as I see it...Wabash is either going to beat OWU and get in via AQ or lose to OWU and be out.  If OWU beats Wabash, all they have to do is split their games against Allegheny and Wooster and they'll go in via Pool A, which leaves Witt alone at 9-1 in Pool C (Witt is a 99.7% lock to finish 9-1, so we'll just take that as it is). 

The interesting scenario, as you've alluded to, is if Wabash beats OWU, and OWU wins their last two games.  I'm guessing here, but I believe OWU is going to grade out better than Witt will.  OWU will get a SOS boost on Saturday, and then stay put basically after that.  Wittenberg is going to see their SOS fall for the next three weeks.  Moreover, Witt will not have a quality win, mostly because they lost their only chance to have one.  OWU might get a quality win if CMU sneaks into a regional ranking, possible while the deeper south of the south region keeps eating itself.  Further complicating things for either OWU or Witt, who are going to have fairly soft 1-loss résumés, is the multitude of CCIW teams still in play, Heidelberg, and a bunch of west region teams that have gaudy SOS numbers and quality wins.  Going strictly by feel here, 9-1 OWU feels like a last team in or second to last team in to me.  Witt is a victim of their schedule and probably needs more help. 

Quick note on the soft 1-loss résumés that I mentioned above...if it does get down to that there will be a LOT of debate and ruffled feathers over either OWU or Witt in front of some really good quality 2-loss teams that will have big SOS metrics and quality wins.  I'd much rather have just one loss on selection Sunday than 2 no matter what the schedule was that created those 2 losses, but this would really invite a strong debate on how much weight to put on win% vs. SOS and quality wins. 

[wabndy]

Meanwhile, is there a 'chance' that if Wabash beats OWU and then OWU beats Allegheny, that the NCAC could have THREE playoff teams?

I know Wally's the Pool C dude but if Wabash, Witt and OWU are all 9-1 and the carnage in the South and West and the CCIW continues, then is that realistic?

(Yes, that also assumes Wabash beats OWU and then wins out, and Witt wins out, but c'mon humor me here...)

No need to humor you. I think it is very likely that there will be a three way tie for the conference crown.  I don't think it's beyond the pale (albeit unlikely) to say the lords could run the table and create a 4 way tie. What I think you can absolutely write in stone is there are only two NCAC tickets to the playoffs.  I just don't see the committee picking a #3 NCAC team over a -shall we say- a two loss UWW team finishing #2 in the WIAC, regardless what the criteria are.

Bottom line, only OWU controls their own destiny right now. Everyone else has to hope they win out and gets help either from other teams or the pool C committee. I don't think anybody in the NCAC can take any pool c bid as a given.

[smedindy]

That UWW team won't even be the best two loss team out there per the criteria. The Buff State loss, while out of region, is going to sting.

A four way tie? Thanks Earlham and the UAA agreement!

[The_Bishop]

Wally laying down the Pool C knowledge gets me as jacked up as when I'm watching Clark Kellogg talk bracketology during the first week of March.

[BashDad]

You might think I'm an asshole...

Pretty much.

I won't lie. This stings more than I want it to.

[nike]

What is the 514 reference and will Wabash's weekly report address Belton's health?
Think we will sit on Wabash side first half and if OWU is still in the game at half time, walk over to the OWU side.
What is the best place to eat in downtown Delaware?  Can't remember.

[The_Bishop]

What is the 514 reference and will Wabash's weekly report address Belton's health?
Think we will sit on Wabash side first half and if OWU is still in the game at half time, walk over to the OWU side.
What is the best place to eat in downtown Delaware?  Can't remember.

It may not be the "best" food but if you like a hometown diner with a great atmosphere, give the Hamburger Inn a try.  Arguably within walking distance to the Stadium, right in the middle of town, and phenomenal malt shakes.  Here are the urbanspoon reviews for what they're worth:

http://www.urbanspoon.com/r/33/371116/restaurant/Columbus/Hamburger-Inn-Delaware

[wally_wabash]

Let's break down the four way tie scenario, shall we?

Here are the tiebreaks again, as published in 2010:
1- H2H
2- Results vs. other NCAC opponents in descending order (I believe this has to be amongst common opponents)
3- Fewest conference away losses
4- Highest preseason power ranking
5- Team with the longest conference winning streak

1- I don't know how you break this tie on head to heads since everybody didn't play everybody else.  Kenyon/Wabash, Kenyon/Witt, OWU/Witt did not happen.  OWU beat Kenyon, Wabash beat Witt, but I don't think that settles anything.  Nor can we elminate a team based on head to heads because not one of these teams played the other three.  I think we move on. 

2- This is a nightmare also because of the schedule thing and how nobody plays the same teams.  What are the odds that all four teams played a team and had one different result?  Not good, but it happened.  There are four opponents common to all of these 1-loss teams: Wooster, Oberlin, and DePauw were all dispatched by our would-be quad-champs.  Allegheny was not.  In our scenario, OWU/Kenyon/Witt all beat Allegheny.  Wabash did not.  Wabash is eliminated (Price is Right horn is appropriate here). 

So we go back to the top with the three remaining teams. 

1- This is weird.  Witt did not play Kenyon or OWU.  OWU beat Kenyon.  Can we eliminate Kenyon based on that?  I don't think we can.  We can't break this tie on h2h results.  We move on.

2- In addition to the common opponents above, Hiram becomes a common opponent amongst the three remaining teams.  It's all moot though because these teams all beat all of those common opponents.  We move on. 

3- Here's where the Kenyon/OWU result comes into play.  OWU and Witt have zero away losses in conference (both were beaten by Wabash at their  home stadiums).  Kenyon lost to OWU at OWU, so the Lords have 1 away loss.  Kenyon is eliminated. 

So now we have to break the OWU/Witt tie. 

1- There is no head to head here. 
2- OWU and Witt have six common opponents.  For a second I thought I was going to have to project final standings.  Turns out I don't.  Both teams lost to Wabash, both teams beat Oberlin/Hiram/DePauw/Allegheny/Wooster.  So it doesn't matter what order all of those teams finish in, the results are common.  Both teams also played Denison, but OWU's game was non-league and doesn't count for this purpose...not that it matters as both teams also beat Denison. 
3- Conference away losses are zero for both teams.  We move on. 
4- Witt wins if there is a power ranking in play.  If not, we'll go on to step 5 where...
5- ...Witt wins anyway as their league win streak is at 4 while OWU's league win streak will be at 2. 

So, in a four way tie, I think Witt wins the AQ.  If I've done this properly. 

[wally_wabash]

will Wabash's weekly report address Belton's health?

I wouldn't bank on getting much out of the weekly release (usually on Wednesdays) or the game notes (usually on Friday).  Belton was on the top of the two-deep in the game notes last week.  If Belton has already been cleared to go or gets cleared by Wednesday, then Coach Raeburn might say so.  Or he might keep it to himself. 

Additional note here...Coach Raeburn doesn't seem (to me at least) to be a guy that plays particularly coy with who's going to play and who isn't.  If guys are hurt, he usually says so and if guys are going to go he usually says so.  If he says he doesn't know, that's usually how it is at the time he was asked about it.  I don't think he'll keep this a big secret just to do it.  I don't think that sort of secrecy is that big of a deal to him. 

[drt]

Bashdad,
Don't let that sting.
You're avid, enthusiastic, well-informed and understandably biased.
Not the other thing......

[bashbrother]

Ok, I've held off as long as I could.....

http://youtu.be/U7fjDS0jKiE

[Li'l Giant]

I hate to beat the dead horse on this but:

Like BashBro said, what OWU is experiencing is akin to what Wabash fans have experienced in the runup to games against UMU and UWW (and to an extent NCC last year) in the past. This isn't to say we're UMU or UWW by any means but we all know there are strata in D3. And while, no, our program isn't on that level, we're on a different level than OWU has been. Anyone wanting to jump levels is going to have to do two things: (a) hear from doubters and (b) go win the games. OWU gets their chance Saturday. Easiest way to shut up the doubters is to win the game.

As far as "elevating the conference", for that to happen someone other than Witt or Wabash has to actually win the league. See above. Not compete, not have a run, not finish 2nd. Win it. Until you do it, there will be doubters. It's been since 2004 since someone other than Witt or Wabash has won the league. In those 7 full seasons since then only twice has someone other than the Witt/Bash loser ended up in 2nd place: 05 Kenyon (without playing Witt or Bash) and 08 Wooster (Beat Witt, lost to Bash).

Gheny was in 3rd place in 08, 09 and 10. They beat Wabash this year. But unless they win the league and get to the tournament, then it will only get chalked up to a good win for them and a bad loss for Wabash. Nothing more. I sincerely hope that OWU and Gheny get good enough to win the league. I'd like our league to be tougher. But you gotta actually go out and win it for that to happen.