FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[FightinScot]

Hi all,

I've been trying to activate my account all season, hence just arriving to post now. I've seen a lot posted about such an amazing year in the NCAC. Since it looks like everyone covered everything I wanted to post, could we start talking about all-Conference teams? My son was the punter at Wabash a number of years ago, so I feel like a Special Teams guru. I saw someone post a mock all-conference team that had Wooster's Obery over Wabash's Sobleski.Maybe it comes with the bias of having a son who went there, but Sobleski finished with a higher punt average and a better net punt average, so how could he lose? Then, Simon from DPU in . I agree with the earlier call that Mckenzie from OWU should be the first team hands down. However, I have a feeling that they might give it to Williams from Witt. He was 8-10 on the season and more accurate on PATs. I do want to give McDougal from Wabash a shot for second team though (honorable mention). (again probably bias) Wabash did the best on KO coverage and most touchbacks. It was painful to watch missed fg and xp but maybe that injury kept him from full strength longer than we know. (Btw does anyone know what happened to Smith in the Bell Game, it looked like McDougal sprinted his fastest 40 just to kick the fg) I think this has been one of the strongest seasons I have seen in the NCAC for specialists in awhile. This is just my opinion, obviously. My son told me to post on here cause he was tired of hearing me rant.  Good season NCAC. Here's to an even better one next year!

I have obvious bias for Wooster's punter, but he has a few things going for him nonetheless. Setting a school record for long punt of 77 yards, being a 3x AC pick, and while his punting average was lower, his average was skewed by the number of "coffin corner" situations he was in. I'm far from a "guru" though.

[ExTartanPlayer]

I have no dog in the "punting" discussion, but I will admit that gross and net punting average are both somewhat overrated statistics.  I'm more interested in the number of punts downed inside the 20, inside the 10, and the percentage of punts returned. I'll take a 35-yard kick with no return every time at this level.

[nike]

Has anyone ever been Player of the Week more than once in one season in the Northcoast conference?  That is truly "fair and balanced."

[Bishopleftiesdad]

^ Yeah Nike, it happened this year. Kolin Sullivan got it twice for Kenyon.

http://www2.northcoast.org/football/potw/2012

[nike]

Wow! I need to wear my glasses all the time. 
Thanks.

[cave2bens]

Wow! I need to wear my glasses all the time. 
Thanks.

Some of us do in absence of ten foot "wingspan" - uh, doesn't help.  I need other excuses / suggestions welcome.

[seinfeld]

A few more statistics that I think shed some more light on Mike Schmitz's tenure at Wooster:

I need to correct Schmitz's overall record at Wooster. He is 78-54 overall, and minus the Tony Sutton era (25-5), is just 53-49 and 16-24 the past four seasons.

The combined record of the teams Wooster beat in 2012 was 0-20, and for the last four years, the record for teams Wooster has beaten is 36-104.

In the last four years (40 games), Schmitz has seen Wooster squander 11 second half leads (27.5% of all games). Three of the losses included blowing double-digit leads. In this same period, Wooster only won three games where they trailed in the second half (one was a touchdown deficit to winless St. Vincent (2012), one was trailing OWU by a single point at halftime in 2010, and the other was overcoming a 4-point deficit to Wash U. in 2009).

While head coach, Schmitz has seen his team lose a 4th quarter lead 10 times, while his team has mounted 4th quarter comebacks six times. None of the six teams (Earlham twice, Hiram, Oberlin, OWU and Wash U.) finished with more than four wins in those particular seasons.

Of the 54 times Wooster has trailed in the second half under Schmitz, only twice have they overcome a double-digit deficit (a 14-point deficit to Earlham in 2006 and a 13-point deficit to Case in 2003). On the other hand, the Scots have squandered six leads of double-digits, including three times in the past four years.

This is obviously subjective, but you can make the argument that Schmitz has never led Wooster to an upset in 132 career games. To me, there are only two games that can even be considered. The first was the 2003 win over Wabash at home. I think going into the game Wabash was probably considered the favorite. But Wooster had maybe the greatest player in NCAC history in Tony Sutton, was the preseason favorite to win the conference that year, and had six future All-Americans on the field. The other game was the 2008 win over Wittenberg at home. But again, Wittenberg was down that year, finishing 6-4. They were without their starting quarterback (Huffman), had just lost to a .500 Allegheny team the week before, and also had a bad loss to Wash U. on their resume that year as well.

[ExTartanPlayer]

The combined record of the teams Wooster beat in 2012 was 0-20, and for the last four years, the record for teams Wooster has beaten is 36-104.

While head coach, Schmitz has seen his team lose a 4th quarter lead 10 times, while his team has mounted 4th quarter comebacks six times. None of the six teams (Earlham twice, Hiram, Oberlin, OWU and Wash U.) finished with more than four wins in those particular seasons.

These sorts of cherry-picked statistics aren't nearly as strong as they sound, especially the "record of defeated teams over the past four seasons" thing (although it is worth noting that their only two wins this year came vs. winless opponents).  If you run that same number for all but the top echelon of teams in Division III, it's going to be a losing record by a fairly large margin.  And the fourth quarter comeback thing, while it makes for good table chatter, is again a flawed margin.  Some of the nation's top teams are also going to show up with donuts or very low numbers in the "fourth quarter comeback" column because the score at the start of the fourth quarter is somewhat of an arbitrary snapshot in the game.  How many fourth-quarter comeback wins has Mount Union recorded in the past couple seasons?  Think it really bothers them very much?  I'd prefer that my team be ahead at that juncture, so personally I don't really care whether my team has a bunch of comeback wins - the overall record certainly matters a lot more (which is indeed still an issue here, I'm not pretending that it isn't - however, I really dislike the use of these cherrypicked numbers to make things sound especially ominous). 

This is obviously subjective, but you can make the argument that Schmitz has never led Wooster to an upset in 132 career games. To me, there are only two games that can even be considered.

I actually think this is the stronger part of your post.  Part of being a really good coach is getting your team to play above its head once in a while.  Obviously "upsets" aren't common, otherwise they wouldn't be UPSETS, but the ability to coax a quality performance out of an above-average team is a sign of really good coaching...and not beating one truly "above average" opponent over the last few seasons is very telling. 

Again, I think the strongest argument to be made is how far Wooster has fallen relative to the other NCAC teams.  When I started paying attention to the league, they were a clear #3A and #3B with Allegheny behind Wooster & Witt, and they were one of the teams that I took seriously when I saw them on a UAA team's schedule.  They were on par with CWRU and WashU in some of those games - and while they still have played Case close the last few seasons, they haven't actually BEATEN them since the UAA agreement took hold.  Even worse, now they don't just appear behind Wabash and Witt, they appear to be well behind many NCAC teams that they could have taken as guaranteed W's in the past.  THAT is far more troubling than a lack of fourth-quarter comebacks or a poor record of defeated opponents, IMO.

[Bishopleftiesdad]

This is probably old news but I will post it anyway.

Congratulations to the following seniors for being named to the 2012 "D3Senior Classic" Preseason All-American Football Team

http://www.d3seniorclassic.com/2012/08/2012-%E2%80%9Cd3senior-classic%E2%80%9D-preseason-all-american-football-team/

South Offense
RET- Taylor Wagner- DePauw

North Defense
1ST team
DL- James Huddleston -Ohio Wesleyan
2ND Team
LB- Tyler Sheetz-Ohio Wesleyan


South Defense
2ND Team
DL-Pat Clegg- Wabash

Honorable Mention
K- Sean Williams-Wittenberg
OL- Weston Kitley-Wabash

[short]

With the season over who is the NCAC player of the year this season, Belton or Esponisa or maybe the RB from Denison.  I would think Belton is a shoe in but Esponisa and OWU had a great year! 

[BashDad]

I'd be shocked if OPoY didn't go to Espinosa. Monster year statistically on the surprise conference co-champs. That'll do it.

[nike]

Not so sure anymore.  Thought that Wabash would somehow win the NCAC. That didn't happen.  No championship opens the door for other candidates. I'm wondering if he'll even get first team NCAC.  Espinosa's numbers may trump Belton's all around leadership.

[BashDad]

Belton may not even get 2nd team. The argument positioning him above either Florence or Espinosa kind of wilts under inspection. Would I want him on my team over those guys? Yep. But I doubt the NCAC starts handing out trophies for "all around leadership." And even that, by the way, is kind of your own invention. Tough year.

[WittFootball]

I'd be shocked if OPoY didn't go to Espinosa. Monster year statistically on the surprise conference co-champs. That'll do it.

Witt's Reed Florence should definitely be considered for Offensive Player of the Year.  He replaced last year's winner, Ben Zoeller, and he has put up some great numbers not only throwing but also running.  While he may not have as many yards in the air as Espinosa, he does have three more TD's (23) with 141 fewer attempts.  Florence also has 459 yards rushing with 7 TD's compared to Espinosa's 115 and 1 TD.  Because of the scores in most of the games this year, Florence was only playing in three quarters.

He may not win the award this year, but the way that Reed starting playing in the last part of the season should give other NCAC teams something to think about this off season, and should vault him to the top of next year's list.

Tiger Up!

[sigma one]

Strictly on the numbers, which aren't everything, Espinosa and Fioroni seem to have a big edge.  Espinosa is at the lead position on a team that far exceeded predictions.  OWU threw for over 100 yards more per game than any other team in the conference.  While Holmes of Wabash rushed for more yards per game than Fioroni (132/123), Fioroni also caught 65 passes. Given the success of OWU, if I had a vote, it would be for Espinosa, even though one could argue that the OWU system gives him an advantage.  He still had to complete passes (65%) and move the offense--and on a team whose system didn't produce many rushing yards. 
     Belton had a significant career, but he missed a game and a half this year.  He had up games and down games.  The award is not supposed to be for career accomplishment.  The only other names that might be in the mix, and those down the list some, might be Florence (because of Wittenberg's success and entry into the playoffs), and Witjes (who led the conference in receptions and receiving yards), and who helped spark Oberlin to more wins that most would have anticipated, and to a major upset. 
     Maybe someone can lobby for others.
     Not quite so interesting a question, but fun to look at, is who might be the Newcomer of the Year?  Dehnke of Wittenberg is having a big year at RB.  On the defensive side, Tyler McCullen of Wabash has major stats at DE.  Both are rising stars.  Anyone else?