FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[nike]

My guess is Barnes will look better than Espinosa against your defense. Barnes was running for his life all day. 300 yards is a lot even in a scrimmage.

[sigma one]

Barnes/Espinoas, two different types of QBs in two very different systems--although a lot of what Wooster did in the passing game on Saturday reminded me of OWU
      The seven sacks could have been 9-11 except for Barnes's talents.  Espinoas will be harder to reach.  His line will protect him better; he has a quicker release.  And his receivers are better.  I'm intrigued that OWU has been throwing the ball more down the field recently.  A change in their philosophy or simply taking advantage of other teams' defensive backs?  He could have a hard time holding onto the ball to let his receivers get deep v. Wabash.  The cat and mouse v. BJ's blitzes and defensive decisions will be fun to watch.   
     Last year, we know that OWU threw the ball was it 75X and complerted was it 52.  And they never scored a point.  How will they attack this year against what I think is a better Wabash set of defensive backs and overall a better defense.  Wooster could teach them somethng, maybe, but I'm not sure how much Wabash held back last week.
     If OWU can't stop the run, this may all be moot.  Against Denison's running game, they were horrible.  Was that just one of those things or will Wabash control the clock and make them play from behind and take risks?  And if Wabash crashes ahead, that makes the Wabash defense all the more likely to go all out after Espinosa. 
     I have not looked at the long-range forecast; my fault.    A twenty-four point spread is already out.  Three + TDs.  BB#16, the Holtz will have to think about that.   
       

[bashbrother]

Does OWU throw deep more this year?  Will Wabash press more and try to take away the flats more than they did on Saturday and bait OWU into throwing deeper?  As a defense, you are basically gambling that you can get to him in the extra two or three clicks they will have.

After last year,  I wouldn't be surprised to see OWU go deep on their first offensive play.   Last year proved to them that the "Dink & Dunk" short stuff will not defeat a defense the caliber of Wabash's.  Plus,  after giving up 326 yards rushing to Denison and knowing the rushing game that Wabash brings...  I believe they need to draw up a different offensive game plan altogether....  I believe this is their only chance to keep it closer.  If they come in as expected....  it will be the same if not a worse result.

[nike]

I look at the teams that OWU has played so far and just don't think that the defenses they have faced are anywhere close to what Wabash defense is.  Don't think Espinoza will have more time to throw than Barnes had. Barnes athletic ability got him out of a number of bad situations, but he still couldn't do it by himself.  From clips I've seen so far of Wabash defense I am willing to say that this may be as good a defense as they have ever had. I know it's still early in season but those guys really get after it. And I know Wabash people do not want to start talking about that yet.  We shall see.

[wabco]

From the posts, OWU does not defense the run well.  If Wabash wins the coin toss, would not be surprised to see ER elect to receive... and put them down by seven on the first drive, compliments of Wabash running.  Start the clock running toward Wabash D pinning their ears back and making the OWU QB experience an early Halloween Fright Night. 

[bashbrother]

Zurek already has 501 yards rushing on the year.   8.2 yard/carry average.    Wabash as a team has 1,197 and 18 TD's rushing through 4 games.   Not bad depth, when your 2012 NCAC's leading rusher goes out with an unfortunate injury and you are able to insert another back of similar quality.

You have to give them big guys upfront a ton of credit for this as well,  they are opening up the lanes for these tanks to get up to speed and into the second level.   

[wally_wabash]

So it's OWU time.  Are they going to throw deep?  Probably.  I think they have to try it a few times.  I think they'll still have similar red zone issues that they had last year, so they'll want to strike with a lot of field to work with.  But here's the thing...if you're going to go deep you need 1) time and 2) WRs who can win their matchup.  Time is obviously going to be an issue unless they guess right and get it when Wabash doesn't rush an extra guy or two.  But then if Wabash doesn't rush an extra guy, that's an extra guy back in pass coverage which makes it harder to win the matchup. 

I think Moglinicki is really good and I think he can win his matchup sometimes.  Cagney is good and Wabash will have to be careful with him running the seam.  But of course all of that requires Espinosa to have time.  And of course Wabash primed the Houston Hodges pump by getting him some DB snaps at Wooster.  He'll play a lot more this Saturday.   It's going to be a big, big day for OWU's offensive line.  I wouldn't be surprised if Espinosa throws 60 or so times.  I don't know what other option the Bishops have. 

Now, what the Bishops can do to stop the bowling ball that is Mason Zurek, I don't know.  I'm going to beat ER to the punch this week and tell you that OWU's defensive line is the best one Wabash will have seen by far this year.  They have some serious pass rushers on that line.  But Wabash won't pass a ton...except perhaps when they catch the Bishops cheating up too far and hit them with something deep.  Minus a bizarro game where Wabash fumbles 5 times, I don' t know that OWU can score enough on a long field enough times against this unit to win the game. 

I'm away this weekend and will have to catch this one on the stream.  This is the last home game I'm missing this year.  I promise. 

[wabco]

As we get ready for OWU, there is still time for a little Dannie fun.  At Wabash at Homecoming someone gave me a button which read:

"DePauw is the Home of Fantasy Football  49-0  45-7  23-0"

[ExTartanPlayer]

So it's OWU time.  Are they going to throw deep?  Probably.  I think they have to try it a few times.  I think they'll still have similar red zone issues that they had last year, so they'll want to strike with a lot of field to work with.  But here's the thing...if you're going to go deep you need 1) time and 2) WRs who can win their matchup.  Time is obviously going to be an issue unless they guess right and get it when Wabash doesn't rush an extra guy or two.  But then if Wabash doesn't rush an extra guy, that's an extra guy back in pass coverage which makes it harder to win the matchup. 

I think Moglinicki is really good and I think he can win his matchup sometimes.  Cagney is good and Wabash will have to be careful with him running the seam.  But of course all of that requires Espinosa to have time.  And of course Wabash primed the Houston Hodges pump by getting him some DB snaps at Wooster.  He'll play a lot more this Saturday.   It's going to be a big, big day for OWU's offensive line.  I wouldn't be surprised if Espinosa throws 60 or so times.  I don't know what other option the Bishops have. 

Now, what the Bishops can do to stop the bowling ball that is Mason Zurek, I don't know.  I'm going to beat ER to the punch this week and tell you that OWU's defensive line is the best one Wabash will have seen by far this year.  They have some serious pass rushers on that line.  But Wabash won't pass a ton...except perhaps when they catch the Bishops cheating up too far and hit them with something deep.  Minus a bizarro game where Wabash fumbles 5 times, I don' t know that OWU can score enough on a long field enough times against this unit to win the game. 

I think you've hit on several important elements.  I think that Wabash is going to handle OWU fairly easily because of the matchup: Wabash's strengths play very well to OWU's weakness, and a good Wabash game-plan will negate OWU's biggest strengths.  The single best thing OWU does defensively is rush the passer and force sacks/turnovers, but Wabash doesn't have to make that a factor if they run the ball as well as they have been, and OWU is not a great rushing defense, so I expect Wabash to grind out yards and play it a little close to the vest on offense, avoiding mistakes and counting on the defense to hold OWU off the board.  You guys have addressed the Wabash defense vs. the OWU offense pretty thoroughly already.

[wally_wabash]

Just something for the DCs of the NCAC to let rattle around in their mentals...Mason Zurek and Tyler Holmes are back in 2014.  So good luck with all of that. 

[bashbrother]

So I took a look at the Top 25 and discovered many of the teams either have their "Tough ones" toward the end of the year or have already played them.   My original look was to see what Wabash or Witt's prospects of moving up in the next couple of weeks was.   Here is what I found. (Teams & Next Strongest Test - in my opinion)

1.  Mount Union -   11/02 @ #12 Heidelberg
2.  Linfield -   Cruising the rest of the way?
3.  UMHB -  Cruising the rest of the way?
4.  North Central -  11/02 -   @  #26 Illinois Wes.
5.  Bethel -    10/12 -  @ #22 Concordia Moorhead
6.  St. Thomas - 10/19  @  #5 Bethel
7.  Hobart - 11/02 -  @ Union?
8.  UW Platteville -   11/02 -  @ # 10 UWW
9.  UW Oshkosh -  10/26 - @ #10 UWW
10 UW Whitewater - 10/26 - #9 Oshkosh
11. Wesley -  11/09 -  @ FCS Charlotte (A couple of NAIA Teams between now and then?)
12. Heidelberg -  11/02 -  #1 Mount Union
13. Wheaton -  10/19 -  Elmhurst
14. Franklin -  10/12 -  Mount St. Joseph? -  although I don't think this one will be close.
15. Pacific Lutheran -  10/26 - @ Willamette??  Fairly close game last year
16. Johns Hopkins -  10/26 - @ Gettysburg ??  Score was close last year.

So the forecast for movement by Wabash or Witt in the poll, barring upsets, is not great until the WIAC teams start beating up on each other or Bethel, St. Thomas, Concordia Moorhead results work their way out in the next couple of weeks.  Even then,  I believe it might be tough sledding to get a NCAC team in the Top 10 by seasons end.

October 26th and November 2nd will be big weeks for the poll.

Now back to your regularly scheduled Monday.

[wally_wabash]

Support for Franklin seems to be eroding a touch week by week, which is unfortunate.  I think they've accomplished more on the field to warrant a top 10 ranking than, say, North Central.  But you're right, bashbro- there doesn't appear to be a lot of oppotunity for upward movement between now and the last couple of weeks of the year.  League schedules, particularly those in the NCAC, CCIW, and OAC are very back loaded this year. 

[bashbrother]

Support for Franklin seems to be eroding a touch week by week, which is unfortunate.  I think they've accomplished more on the field to warrant a top 10 ranking than, say, North Central. 

I  think that if Franklin had not scheduled Butler and pick-up up that 2nd loss,  they would be close if not in the top 5.  Franklin will have it's say in the playoffs.....  not the team you really want to see in your side of the bracket....

NCAA Div. III Stats are updated.... Wabash still well represented.   http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div

[bashgiant]

Support for Franklin seems to be eroding a touch week by week, which is unfortunate.  I think they've accomplished more on the field to warrant a top 10 ranking than, say, North Central. 

I  think that if Franklin had not scheduled Butler and pick-up up that 2nd loss,  they would be close if not in the top 5.  Franklin will have it's say in the playoffs.....  not the team you really want to see in your side of the bracket....

NCAA Div. III Stats are updated.... Wabash still well represented.   http://stats.ncaa.org/rankings/change_sport_year_div

As for the red zone defense stat, Wabash opponents have only been in the red zone 3 times and they are tied for 60. This stat is a little bit deceiving.

[bashbrother]

As for the red zone defense stat, Wabash opponents have only been in the red zone 3 times and they are tied for 60. This stat is a little bit deceiving.

Just a tad....

Upon further review,  Wabash leads the nation in allowing their opponents into the redzone only 3 times.  2nd is John Carrol with 5.