FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

Ha!  You guys are the best.  Clearly inspred by the play of the Wabash defense, the dialogue is raw, unflitered, and aggressive-  holding nothing back.  It's great.  Nobody is safe this year.  Crank up the heat, fellas. 

Time to play Over/Under:

-Attempts by Espo - 60
   I'll go over, but it won't get to 75.  I think Wabash is going to use more play clock this year, although if they want to go fast and get into a situation where the defense has to play 90 snaps, so be it.  They can do it.  
-Passing yards by Espo - 350
   Over again, barely.  But if you throw 60 times or so, you're going to pile up yards.  We know Wabash can give up even more than this and not allow points.
-Passing TDs by Espo - 1.5
   Under.  I think he's going to catch Wabash cheating once and sneak a long one in there for a score.  But that's it. 
-Defense/Special Team TDs by Wabash - 1.5
   Over.  One on D, one on special teams....HH might score both of them.
-Rushing yards by Wabash - 250
  Way over.
-Sacks by Wabash D - 6.5
   Under.  Wabash got 6 last year, which means Espinosa tried to pass over EIGHTY times last year.  I don't think there will be as many snaps and ultimately I think OWU is going to stick almost exclusively with the tried and true get-it-out-quickly game plan that has served them well for the last year and a half.
-Points by Wabash - 35
   I'm calling for two TDs from the offense, so I need just 21 points from the offense?  Over, please. 
-Points by OWU - 16.5
   Under....OWU scores 14 and misses the number by a missed 33-yard Miles Mackenzie field goal.

[BashDad]

One pertinent clip from this week's show: http://www.tubechop.com/watch/1545465

[bashbrother]

-Attempts by Espo - 60 -    UNDER -   Just don't think he will be on the field long enough
-Passing yards by Espo - 350 - OVER -   He will connect on enough to clear this... but not by much
-Passing TDs by Espo - 1.5 - UNDER -  Nothing that tells me the RedZone is going to be any different this year.
-Defense/Special Team TDs by Wabash - 1.5  UNDER -   This is a tough get.   I believe they get 1.
-Rushing yards by Wabash - 250  - OVER -  Way over.  Gheny rushed for 113 yards (Net) against them.... enough said.
-Sacks by Wabash D - 6.5 -  UNDER -   Hard to sack a "Dinker & Dunker"
-Points by Wabash - 35 -  OVER -  If this number was 50.... I would think about the over.
-Points by OWU - 16.5 - UNDER -  I think they score this year.....  but not 3 times.

[bashbrother]

One pertinent clip from this week's show: http://www.tubechop.com/watch/1545465

Sick

[BashDad]

And another: http://www.tubechop.com/watch/1545476

[wally_wabash]

One pertinent clip from this week's show: http://www.tubechop.com/watch/1545465

Denzel is good.  That might have been my favorite play from the Wooster game. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

-Attempts by Espo - 60 -    OVER 

He threw it 75 times against you guys last year in a game where you ground out plenty of rushing yardage.  Even if you think Wabash's ground game will hold the ball for more than 30 minutes this year...it won't be by much, it wasn't last year.  You're not suddenly going to hold the ball for 45 minutes of game time.  And Espo will be throwing nearly every down from the second quarter on.

-Passing yards by Espo - 350 - OVER

He also threw for 428 yards on those 75 attempts last year, which is a big raw number but a pretty average "yards per attempt" number.  Even if he "only" has 60 attempts this year, I bet he'll get 350 yards.  The bigger question is...will he get in the endzone?  Ah, so glad you asked!

-Passing TDs by Espo - 1.5 - OVER

I betcha he'll manage two.  Just a gut feeling.  While they haven't taken a huge step forward this year, the offense has still been quite productive.

-Defense/Special Team TDs by Wabash - 1.5  UNDER

This is a tough get.   I believe they get 1.

-Rushing yards by Wabash - 250  - OVER

Zurek might run for 250, depending on how many carries he gets.

-Sacks by Wabash D - 6.5 - UNDER

They'll get enough pressure to keep him from going downfield, but won't sack him that many times.

-Points by Wabash - 35 -  OVER

42.

-Points by OWU - 16.5 - OVER

17.  Mackenzie isn't a great kicker, but he's not as bad as he's looked so far this year.  He'll hit a FG or two, and they'll manage a few scores.  You guys have been pretty hard on OWU for not being as good as you (collectively, not individually) expected, but those expectations were probably a bit overinflated to begin with.  I do think there's some talent on that team, especially on offense, and I think they'll come out firing, knowing that since they've lost to Denison they really have to upset one of the big W's to salvage the season.  Valentine is a terrific DL, but small, and Wabash should try to run at him hard early to wear him down because he has been a pass-rushing terror in every game.  11 sacks in four games is impressive, and he's had at least 2 in every game, meaning that it's not just taking advantage of ONE bad tackle to rack up a bunch of sacks.

OWU isn't as good as Wabash, but they've got a couple of very good individuals and those kids will make a big play or two and keep it competitive for a while.  I think Wabash is up 21-10 by halftime and pulls away in the second half.

[aueagle]

Saturday weather: 79/chance of rain...OWU will need a dry track to compete in this one.
We all know Espo will throw a zillion times; Bishops have played tough against the LG"s
over the years....this should be a good test to see where we are as a program.
Wish I could be there....GO BISHOPS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           

[formerd3db]

Saturday weather: 79/chance of rain...OWU will need a dry track to compete in this one.
We all know Espo will throw a zillion times; Bishops have played tough against the LG"s
over the years....this should be a good test to see where we are as a program.
Wish I could be there....GO BISHOPS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Hello aueagle:

As we have this discussed many times in the past, it is great to finally see your OWU being much improved and starting the "new" era.  Hope has kind of been in a similar situation, although I am a little disappointed after we started out 3-0 and now having lost 2 close games.  I guess we will be like you stated for OWU in that this weekend should be a good test to see where we [really] are as a program.  We play Olivet, which is a very surprising 5-0 and while I do not believe they are (at least on paper ) as good as the Adrian team we lost to last weekend in a fairly close game, if we lose to Olivet, then I know we are not as good as we thought we we and Olivet is a little better than many people are giving them credit for.

Anyway, good luck to your OWU this weekend, even though you will not be there to see the game as you've already mentioned.

P.S. Someday, I still would like to get down to Selby Stadium to see a game! 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Saturday weather: 79/chance of rain...OWU will need a dry track to compete in this one.
We all know Espo will throw a zillion times; Bishops have played tough against the LG"s
over the years....this should be a good test to see where we are as a program.
Wish I could be there....GO BISHOPS
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         

Hello aueagle:

As we have this discussed many times in the past, it is great to finally see your OWU being much improved and starting the "new" era.  Hope has kind of been in a similar situation, although I am a little disappointed after we started out 3-0 and now having lost 2 close games.  I guess we will be like you stated for OWU in that this weekend should be a good test to see where we [really] are as a program.  We play Olivet, which is a very surprising 5-0 and while I do not believe they are (at least on paper ) as good as the Adrian team we lost to last weekend in a fairly close game, if we lose to Olivet, then I know we are not as good as we thought we we and Olivet is a little better than many people are giving them credit for.

Anyway, good luck to your OWU this weekend, even though you will not be there to see the game as you've already mentioned.

P.S. Someday, I still would like to get down to Selby Stadium to see a game!

Doc,

Hope vs. Olivet is one of those really intriguing mid-level games this weekend.  We all know Olivet is a great story being 5-0, but they've won narrow games against North Park and Wisconsin Lutheran, both teams that Hope beat comfortably.  I expect Hope to win rather comfortably, but it is still neat to see Olivet "relevant" in the MIAA race, even if it's a bit fleeting.  With the exception of Alma, the MIAA had a nice OOC season.  Will be interested to see who actually emerges from that scrum with a Pool A berth.

[BashBacker#16]

I seriously laughed out loud several times.  The post about OWU playing Huff tough in 2004 was my favorite so "my bro could get his job back" - classic.  Concluded with "I love my brother."   

-Attempts by Espo - 60 - OVER - it won't matter but they will not be able to run.  Wabash will improve on their rushing D giving up 63.8 yards/game.  Now add the sacks...       
-Passing yards by Espo - 350 - UNDER - I just cannot fathom this D giving up 350 yards through the air, even if they are dinks and dunks.  I just can't.  Hodges, Pettiford, Gibson, Wilkins, Eddie, Woods, are too good.  We may give up the flats this week, like last, but I hope we press and bring serious heat!
-Passing TDs by Espo - 1.5 - OVER - only because he'll hit a 2nd super late when the game is way out of reach.
-Defense/Special Team TDs by Wabash - 1.5  OVER -  I am a defensive guy and I love this D.  They're nasty.
-Rushing yards by Wabash - 250  - OVER - like someone else said, would be a tougher question if Zurek goes over 250.  Stella may top 100 too.  Downhill all day long for the Little Giants.
-Sacks by Wabash D - 6.5 - OVER -    Faith in the Bash D and I think we get to Espo combined with tighter coverage off the line
-Points by Wabash - 35 -  OVER - WAY OVER
-Points by OWU - 16.5 - UNDER -  This is a huge metric this year for the Bash D (just a hunch), points will be tough sledding let alone 16.5...

Bash rolls.

Wabash Always Fights!

P.S.  I'm also going to predict another huge game by Nate Scola putting himself in line for the D player of the year in the NCAC...

[bashgiant]

What are the odds OWU goes deep on their very first play? What would you do if you were the Wabash coach, man to man, zone, play your safeties up to help with the dinks, or keep them back. I'm a little more on the aggressive side I'm going man to man and bringing one of the safeties blitzing or stepping in the lane for a pick six as I believe our CB's can do a good job one on one.

[formerd3db]

ExTartan:

Good to hear from you. Thanks for your input on the upcoming Hope/Olivet game and also well stated overview of the MIAA.  I agree with your opinion/assessment.  Your "scrum" term is most appropriate in regards to who will come out from that mess with the AQ!

I've also enjoyed reading your various posts/assessments on your own board and the other boards.  Keep up the good work.   

[sigma one]

Like so many others, I have been thinking about the LIttle Giant/Battling Bishop game all week.  The bros have forgotten more about football than I ever knew, and their sense of things is that Wabash rolls big. 
     Ok, I'll take a shot--BB#16, should I be in my Holtz mode or in my bros mode?  A little of both.
     Espinosa passes:  over 60  He will throw early, often, and late, and with Wabash ahead (or even in a close game) he and his
          receivers are OWU's best shot.  Mogilnicki, Cagney, and Jenkins are all nice receivers.   But will Expinosa spend some time on
          the sidelines, even with the under on sacks?  That defense hits.
     Pass yards:  over 350.  They have to dance with who brung em.  Also, draws, misdirections to try to keep the Wabash
          speed in check.  Some quick screens.  That old Hanover offense.  Definitely.  They were masters at that old jail-break screen. 
          But those plays for three or so yards can't get the job done.
     Pass TDs: two.  They will have a tough time in the red zone and will not be able to rush the ball in close.  Throw for points.
     Defense/ST:  two TDs, maybe one on a KO return. 
     Rushing:  250 doesn't read like much anymore.  I watched the Denison game, and OWU has to be working on their
          rush defense.  Still, yes, over 250--or Wabash is in some trouble.
     Sacks:  nope.  Too big a number at 6.5.  The ball comes out too quickly.  Also the reason that OWU won't be able to drive the
          ball consistently.  Too many short balls.  They repeatedly threw down the field v. Denison.  Wabash will be aware that
          those shots are coming; still they will get one or two of them--and have to.  If they aren't successful getting the ball deep
          enough to keep Wabash on its heels, oh no.
           (And Wabash is aware that if OWU had scored on their long first drive last year, stopped on the goal line, that game
          might have been very different.)
         
     Points:  over 35, or Wabash will have a fight on its hands.  I've consistently underestimated the LGs scoring proficiency all year.
          (Holtz).  I don't think Raeburn has really turned them loose yet.
     OWU points:  over 16.5.  Not a shoot out, but one of two things:  Wabash gets way ahead and OWU gets late points, or it's
          closer than Wabash fans expect and they throw to the end anyway because that's what they do.
     A bonus thought:  I have not read here any thoughts that anyone thinks OWU can win, or even stay close.  OWU has something
          to prove; that counts for something.  How much, we will see.     Wabash 41   OWU  20  (Mackenzie has been erratic, but he is
          better than his numbers so far.  He kicks two field goals  (and gets one blocked).
     
     

[The_Bishop]

What are the odds OWU goes deep on their very first play?

I would actually love to see OWU line up in the Wing-T on the very first play, for pure comedic value if nothing else.  It could mess with the Wabash D a little bit but I don't get the sense these get rattled by much if anything.  Now that I think about it I'm curious if Espinosa has ever taken a single snap under center in his entire 4-year career at OWU.