FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wabco]

The statistics look even ... BUT ... a couple of thoughts:

Except for Witt being completely blown out by Butler, the statistics are (in a macro sense) comparable.  However, there is a limit to how bad you can beat on the little sisters of the poor within the time frame and sportsmanship (even for Witt) constraints.  So within these limits it is not surprising the statistics are (in a macro sense) comparable.

NOW the except.  Given the Butler/Witt game was the first game.  But I watched the Butler/Witt game.  Butler's speed and intensity on D simply dismantled Witt.  You can say, first game etc. etc. etc.  But the basics of speed and intensity by Butler was there on D ... and with stunning results.  And Witt's D did not hamper Butler.  So, maybe this game was held on a different planet.  Or maybe, it showed a weakness masked by the little sisters of the poor contests which followed.

NOW ... Wabash D plays against these same sisters.  But the Wabash results are not muted by the time and (don't run the score up on purpose) sportsmanship restraints.  They depend on talent and just doing your D jobs.  And the results are startling in depth and breadth.  And they are ... wait for it ... speed and intensity (and quality built on experience).

I think Wabash D will be the "Butler-esk D" ... hopefully with "Butler-esk" reults.  (Perhaps ... better said is that Butler exhibited the Wabash-esk D".)  The question is how will our O blossom.  We have some pretty fine O coaches.  We have an experienced line.  Putko looked pretty good with the passes he has thrown the past couple of outings.  Would not be surprised to see Wabash (confident in its D) come out passing to loosen things up and set up the run.

It will be fun to watch.  And at our house.  With our students and our crowd.

WAF

[wabashcpa]

I like a good defense to stop a good offense.  I think we will have a significant special teams advantage.  Oh yeah, home game as well.   Low scoring game?  I think so.  Wabash by 6 - something like 20-14.

[Dr. Acula]

I noticed there is a video link for the Witt/Bash game.  How is the video feed for Bash games?  Berg actually had a nice one that included their local radio guys broadcast with the video, but I've seen others that were "buffering" 80% of the time.  Fingers crossed for a good one because I'd love to check that one out. 

[bashbrother]

I noticed there is a video link for the Witt/Bash game.  How is the video feed for Bash games?  Berg actually had a nice one that included their local radio guys broadcast with the video, but I've seen others that were "buffering" 80% of the time.  Fingers crossed for a good one because I'd love to check that one out.

I personally would say that Wabash's Home Video feed is one of the best in the nation.   Hands down.   from Analysis, camera work etc.

You can get an idea of the quality from the following link....  (Just fast forward through the coaches show to get to game) http://www.wabash.edu/live/    although,  our coaches show is first rate too!    We are fortunate to have some great people in place and a great team of production people to pull all of this off....   It isn't easy I am sure.

[Schwami]

Bashbro, there must be something about the resolution.  Particularly around the heads and faces --- it looks like those cop show TV videos where they intentionally blur out the faces of people.  It does have the added benefit of making the Wabash D look even scarier 

[Dr. Acula]

Wow, that's fantastic!  Now that I've seen that I can't wait to watch the NCAC Championship game Saturday.

[The_Bishop]

4.  Field Position -   Could be a huge key in this game,  especially if either team's D, slows down the others offense.

Net punting (Thanks Wally for stats) -   Wabash Net Punting   -  38.48/per punt.    Witt - 27.05/per punt

Add this to the return team statistics also being in Wabash's favor....   Advantage: Wabash

I think this is what ends up winning the game for Wabash.

[bashgiant]

It's Witt week!  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUxCik07q3s

I'm going to predict this atmosphere (tailgating, home crowd, etc.) will be a slight notch below a Monon Bell game.  This rivalry truly is one of the best each season.  Its a much different feel from the Bell game.  I have a couple of buddies that will be seeing their first Bash/Witt game and will be interested to get their input afterwards.

WabCol86 - I'm not sure about the remark regarding Putco automatically being a 3-year starter.  Being the incumbent certainly gives him an edge but I think Belton and Rice will push and compete for that spot.  BTW:  Rice was battling the flu Saturday and couldn't dress.  It was cool to see Belton.

WAF

That video made the hair on the back of my neck stand up!! Where's my helmet!

[smedindy]

Two big keys:

1. Wabash D preventing the big play, as discussed.
2. Wabash special teams and offense doing the little things right. The right block, the right contain on special teams.

This is a game where one missed assignment could be deadly.

[bashgiant]

4.  Field Position -   Could be a huge key in this game,  especially if either team's D, slows down the others offense.

Net punting (Thanks Wally for stats) -   Wabash Net Punting   -  38.48/per punt.    Witt - 27.05/per punt

Add this to the return team statistics also being in Wabash's favor....   Advantage: Wabash

I think this is what ends up winning the game for Wabash.

Hey The_Bishop,
Did you get to see both Wabash and Witt play OWU? If so it would be interesting to get some more of your input on the Wabash Witt game.

[sigma one]

Wabash-Wittenberg has become a terrific rivalry.  This week is this week, but here's some information on the teams' recent games.
            From 2008-2012 (last 5 years):
                                          '08     Wabash         13       Wittenberg     10
                                          '09     Wittenberg    10       Wabash            7
                                          '10     Wittenberg    34       Wabash          17
                                          '11     Wabash         28       Wittenberg     17
                                          '12     Wabash         27       Wittenberg     24

            Conferences Finishes:
                                          '08     Wabash        1st       Wittenberg    3rd
                                          '09     Wabash        2nd      Wittenberg    1st
                                          '10     Wabash        2nd      Wittenberg    1st
                                          '11     Wabash        1st       Wittenberg    2nd
                                          '12      Wabash       3rd       Wittenberg    1st
              Total records over those 5 years:                                                        Wabash 47-9      Wittenberg  46-10
              From 2003 to 2012 (10 years);  Wabash  6 wins       Wittenberg  4 wins
                                                              Six of those games have been decided by 6 or fewer points  (Three by 3 points)

           Since 2008, Wabash and Wittenberg have both produced 37 First-team All-NCAC Players!

That's why this week is this week.
             
           

[bashbrother]

I don't know that I would give the advantage to Witt here but like I said, I am concerned, and Bash will have to prevent the big play...

16 -

Here is essence of my concern....   Do I think Witt can drive the ball up and down the field on us enough to secure a victory... nope... not on our defense.    Do I think Florence and the cast around him... is good enough... to make us really pay for being out of position or catching us on a blitz....   yes.   Reed will complete one or a few down field......that is going to happen.   I just hope we have the field position situation under control, so those times don't mean points.  In a game that could be lower scoring,  our D needs to bring it and be good/great (As they have been).     ER and staff will have this team ready!  Wish it was Friday.....

Additional Stat -    Wittenberg's FG kicker is 6 of 7 on the year.....   He has not attempted a FG of more than 30 yards though....   Will that come into play?  Hard to have a feeling for his range.  Any Witt posters have any input?

WAF!

[wally_wabash]

I did some poking around on this issue of big plays vs. the Wabash defense.  Here's what I found (and this is all presented without added context of time and score in a game...we'll just pretend all of this happened against Wabash's top unit and then you can apply your own correction factor):

Through 8 games, Wabash has faced 504 offensive snaps from their opponents.  Of those 504 snaps:

- 16 have resulted in gains of 20+ yards (3.2% of snaps, 2 per game)
- 20 have resulted in gains between 15-19 yards (4.0%, 2.5 per game)
- 32 have resulted in gains between 10-14 yards (6.3%, 4 per game)

Now for the other side of the coin.  Of those 504 snaps:
- 95 have resulted in negative yardage plays (18.8%, 11.9 per game)
- 110 passes have been incomplete...the play results in no gain (21.8%, 13.8 per game)

Now, when you add those up, you get just north of 40% of the snaps taken against Wabash's offense that have resulted in zero or negative yardage.  If you add in completed passes and rushes for no gain (which I haven't done) you start to creep up on 50% of plays that don't break the LOS against this defense. 

What does it all mean?  Honestly, I don't know.  I didn't do the same analysis with other teams to see how normal (or not) all of this is.  What it means to me is that only very occasionally you can take a big chunk of yards out of Wabash's defense.  You can do it about 8 times per game if we consider anything over 10 yards as a big chunk.  How many drives can you sustain that way, given that half of the time you are either going backwards or staying put?  The answer is not many.  And let's also consider that teams this year have been just as likely to turn the ball over to Wabash (36 times) as they have been to gain 15+ yards on a play and it's hard, hard work to put together drives and score. 

[The_Bishop]

Bashgiant,

I'm afraid I only watched the OWU/Wabash game and missed the Witt game entirely, so I can't provide any comparative analysis based on those games.  I've been a big believer that solid special teams on the DIII level separate the really good teams from the great teams and Wabash seems to be "surviving" quite well in the punting and kicking game this year.  That disparity in punting average really stands out and I just think Wabash is going to get a short field one too many times this Saturday and it will be the difference.

Plus, I just don't like Witt.

The_Bishop

[bashgiant]

Bashgiant,

I'm afraid I only watched the OWU/Wabash game and missed the Witt game entirely, so I can't provide any comparative analysis based on those games.  I've been a big believer that solid special teams on the DIII level separate the really good teams from the great teams and Wabash seems to be "surviving" quite well in the punting and kicking game this year.  That disparity in punting average really stands out and I just think Wabash is going to get a short field one too many times this Saturday and it will be the difference.

Plus, I just don't like Witt.

The_Bishop

Maybe one of the other Bishops can chime in.
Thanks