FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[The_Bishop]

What is everyone forcasting for this weekend against Wabash?

Nervous, with a 90% chance of gassy.

[wally_wabash]

Great analysis, as always, Wally.  Eliminating some of the penalties would also shorten the field - officials aside (and they had issues on Saturday), the infraction rate is borderline ridiculous 

I think it would be interesting to look at other teams with great, aggressive defenses and see if they have a higher than average penalty rate. I think it is human nature if one team is dominating and really roughing the other team up physically the refs (whether they know they're doing it or not) tend to call more penalties on the team that is dominating. I am sure if you go back and look at great defenses whether it be pro, D1, or D3 you will find that great defenses are penalized quite a bit more than good or average defenses just for the simple fact that they are really aggressive and or mean and nasty and have a tendency to pick up roughing, late hits, and un sportsman like conduct penalties.

I think in this context, it's not penalties against the defense that are at issue, it's the stuff on the offense- holding, procedure- that move the ball behind the sticks and put Wabash in long down and distance situations that effectively kill off drives.  On Saturday, Wabash's average third down distance was OVER ten yards.  That's just too many negative plays.  In 2013 Wabash got away with this because the defense was scoring themselves, getting takeaways, or otherwise maintaining Wabash's overwhelming field position advantage.  And it worked right up until it didn't against Witt (I did a 2013 field position breakdown a while ago...I might fish that back out). 

I'm not as concerned about the penalties as many are, particularly on defense.  First, I think that group is good enough to make up for a penalty every now and then.  Second, with today's rules protecting quarterbacks from contact and rules regarding touching receivers down the field, the defense is just going to take penalties.  There's no way around that.  But it's the stuff on offense that is really devastating.  This offense isn't very good when the ball gets behind the sticks- and that's not a criticism of Wabash specifically; nobody's offense is particularly good in those situations. 

[sigma one]

I was researching this while Wally made his most recent post.  Of the 35 penalties for 346 yds. Wabash has taken during the season's first four games, 22 have been against the Offense, 9 against the Defense, 2 on special teams, and 2 that were offsetting personal fouls.
          Among the Offensive penalties, 6 are for holding, 4 for false start, 4 for delay of game, 2 unsportsmanlike, 2 for block in the back, and 1 each for personal foul, illegal formation, illegal procedure, and another for holding (again)--but declined.  Among those penalties against the Defense, 3 are personal fouls, 2 are off side/encroachment, and only 1 for pass interference, 1 for holding,  1 for unsportsmanlike, and 1 for illegal use of hands. 1  Two penalties have been called on special teams, and 2 more for offsetting personal fouls, Wabash v. Opponents. 
          So of the 31 penalties, Offense and Defense combined, 71% have been assessed on the Offense. 

[bashgiant]

I was researching this while Wally made his most recent post.  Of the 35 penalties for 346 yds. Wabash has taken during the season's first four games, 22 have been against the Offense, 9 against the Defense, 2 on special teams, and 2 that were offsetting personal fouls.
          Among the Offensive penalties, 6 are for holding, 4 for false start, 4 for delay of game, 2 unsportsmanlike, 2 for block in the back, and 1 each for personal foul, illegal formation, illegal procedure, and another for holding (again)--but declined.  Among those penalties against the Defense, 3 are personal fouls, 2 are off side/encroachment, and only 1 for pass interference, 1 for holding,  1 for unsportsmanlike, and 1 for illegal use of hands. 1  Two penalties have been called on special teams, and 2 more for offsetting personal fouls, Wabash v. Opponents. 
          So of the 31 penalties, Offense and Defense combined, 71% have been assessed on the Offense.

Great research! I thought it would have been flip flopped.

[sigma one]

The penalty analysis helps confirm Wally's initial post about Wabash's lackluster 3rd-down conversion percentage this year.  Add to the penalties, 13 sacks of Wabash QBs (don't know how many of those on first and second down, but memory says quite a few), and one can see why the LGs have not had much 3rd-down success.  Digging a hole early, and with an offense that wants to run the football and use the pass primarily as a way to keep defenses honest, one can see how the percentage is lower than optimum. 
     Of course, not taking chances--giving up the sacks--being conservative, then punting the ball away has worked reasonably well because the defense is so dominant.  Again, memory serves to tell me that most of the sacks have been "coverage" sacks, when Putko has held the football.  Maybe another way to say this is "indecision" sacks.  In either case, he has held the ball, because of hesitation or receivers not being open. 
     This formula can work against most teams on the schedule, but against Witt and DPU later in the year?  And if the occasion arises against stronger opponents in the playoffs.
     Let's hope the offensive can begin to straighten things out over the next several weeks.  But I don't think we will really know until the 9th game in Springfield.
     On a positive note, Wabash is averaging about 40 points a game, and has scored at least 31 in every game so far, while averaging 400+ yards a game on offense.  Throw out the Allegheny game, and the average pts/game is still above 30.  Not as high as one hopes for but not feeble.

[Wabash Hokie]

Does anyone from Wooster have an injury update on Sean Hackel?  I had to watch the game online and there were no updates provided.  Hoping that his injury was not serious.

[sigma one]

Since we are messing around with stats today, I decided to take a further look at Wabash v. the pass.  I was earlier struck that through 4 games Wabash has only one pass interference penalty.  That's remarkable for their aggressive defense.  So, looking at passing overall, opposing teams are 75 of 133 (with 3 INTS, 2 of these returned for TDs by Wabash).
     That's 56% completions.  Figuring in total number of drop backs with entent to throw, that is adding the 24 sacks Wabash has produced (6 per game, which leads DIII), that makes it 75 of 157, or 48% completions on all passing drop backs.   To be more complete, assuming that once or twice a game an opposing QB has escaped the rush for positive yards, the passing intent may be a bit higher.  But that is speculation, so let's leave that out.
     On the 133 passes actually thrown, opponents have averaged 4.86 yds per pass and 8.63 yards per catch for 162 yards per game.  If we take into account the sacks as intent to pass, that per pass number goes down to 4.1 yds. per attempt without figuring in the yards lost to those sacks. That's a strong defensive number.  And below 50% on all intents to throw is really good, too.
     Of course, it helps that on a windy last Saturday Barnes was 6 of 22, and was sacked 7X.  Even so . . .
       

[firstdown]

Sigma One

With the exception of one pass in the H-SC game where the Wabash defender made a play on the ball, the Wabash defenders have not let the opposing receivers get behind them.  The LG pass defenders have kept generally the receivers from making the long plays by so doing.

It is better to give up the short passes and maybe jump in front of one for int than let a longer one get away.   

[bashgiant]

Sigma One

With the exception of one pass in the H-SC game where the Wabash defender made a play on the ball, the Wabash defenders have not let the opposing receivers get behind them.  The LG pass defenders have kept generally the receivers from making the long plays by so doing.

It is better to give up the short passes and maybe jump in front of one for int than let a longer one get away.   

Being able to put both corners on an island by themselves frees up one the safeties to play almost like an extra linebacker, and Austin Brown is making it work leading the team in tackles.

[sigma one]

firstdown:  totally agree.  And even the first H-SC TD Nance to Walker was a great catch by Walker over the top of the Wabash defender.  He didn't even have a half step when he pulled that ball away.  The combination of a fierce pass rush that limits QB time to pick a receiver and hence limits opponents to short throws mostly and pretty good coverage makes the pass D tough to solve.  Even when the Wabash corners play off a bit giving up the quick throw, they limit Yards after the Catch

[Bishopleftiesdad]

What is everyone forcasting for this weekend against Wabash?

Nervous, with a 90% chance of gassy.

have to agree, Earlier some posters were talking about OWU v Hiram. Lets get this game done first. I am not ready to make any predictions.

[formerd3db]

bishoplefties and augeagle:

Thank you for the follow-up info.  Most informative and interesting.  For some reason, I thought that OWU had around 2000 students in this past decade and the 1990's, however, obviously from your history/information, it was many years before that.  Anyway, yes, hopefully, the new approach/plan for student enrollment and retention will help much. Certainly, the administration of each college has to come up with their own type of plan that will work for their particular school.  Even though most of these schools are in the liberal arts mode historically, the "one size fits all" approach obviously does not work anymore in this new era of society.  Thanks again.   

[wally_wabash]

Let's talk OWU, shall we? 

The page has turned in Delaware and this is a totally different situation than what we've seen over the last four years.  Dominick Orsini is accounting for around 70% of OWU's offense which might actually not be that different than what Espinosa did, but Orsini does it in a very different fashion.  I haven't watched much OWU football this year, but I did see him break off a couple of really nice runs against Kenyon.  He's definitely got a very good running element to his game and that'll be challenging if Wabash gets caught watching the paint dry on read options (does the Hoosiers reference work here?  Don't care...I'm going with it).  On top of the run threat, Orsini is completing 68% of his throws and has only been intercepted twice (in 98 attempts).  Not a lot of mistakes over the first four games for the new OWU quarterback. 

OWU has 15 sacks of the quarterback so far this season- germane given this week's conversation.  OWU usually has pretty good defensive line play, so this isn't surprising.  In recent years, OWU has had trouble staying away from the big pass play, particularly against Wabash.  We might see Houston Hodges have a good day on the outside, particularly if OWU's secondary wants to pay special attention to The Show (which they should...Christen is in full break out mode right now).  I believe it was a pair of Hodges long TD passes that broke open the monster 2012 matchup in Delaware, so keep an eye on Wabash taking a shot or two deep, particularly in spots where a good play action can help out (which requires favorable down and distance...win first down!). 

This is a major step in competition level for OWU.  It's the kind of situation, especially with a new QB, where you sometimes see a team have the deer in headlights thing going on, get down 21-0 in the first quarter before settling in a bit.  We'll see how well Orsini handles his first taste of the upper crust of the NCAC. 

[aueagle]

After a great 1st season, Coach Watts got a wake-up call last year and played 50/50 in conference play...
BUT...now in his 3rd year, he is getting his recruits in and the Bishops are STILL young this season.
The JV program is (again) having a great start...3-0, against OAC schools with a strong win over Ohio Northern.
The point here is, Watts is stacking his deck...young team this year...JV guys move-up and he and the staff have
hit the high schools very aggressively...it will pay-off.
QB "Dom", like wally stated...will "take-off" if his routes are covered...which should keep the LG 'backers in check..
All NCAC (HM) back, Herman might be undersized...but the kid is tough and averages 3.6 yds a carry.. Cagney is Doms main target,
he runs well after the grab and is nice size target too (could give Bash DB/Lb's problems). OWU punt game (something that gave me fits years
ago) is doing well...38.7 ave. The 2013 game was over in the 1st half with 28 LG points...the game got away from us...The point that concerns
me is that the Bishops are giving up 24 pts a game...That can't happen if you want to be in the "upper crust"
The Vegas has the line at 20 1/2...The Red & Black always give Wabash a game (clean..hard hitting...100%-100% of the time)
We're young (Watts will throw a gadget or 2 at the Hard Hats)...it's at Selby...The Red & Black will have to play a near perfect game and
catch Bash off-balance...It's why we play the game!!
GO BISHOPS

[HCAlum86]

Does OWU still have the tight end that would also double with the H back roll the last few years? Good player