FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

Brief Fincham remarks on coaches' poll:

http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/sports/college-football/defending-champion-wittenberg-picked-first-in-ncac/nnDZr/

Excellent use of the word "scads." 

[bashbrother]

Brief Fincham remarks on coaches' poll:

http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/sports/college-football/defending-champion-wittenberg-picked-first-in-ncac/nnDZr/

Excellent use of the word "scads."

Favorites until beaten...  Cool with it.   

Scads - scads (skædz)
pl n
1. a large amount or number

I know what that word means now... cheers!

WAF!

[wally_wabash]

I'm handicapping the 2015 OPOY award because why not.  Here's what I've got:

4-1: Mason Zurek
7-1: Zach Jenkins
10-1: Zach Culvahouse
12-1: DuShawn Brown
12-1: Matt Hunt
20-1: Amen Galley
25-1: Drake Christen
28-1: Justin Cruz
30-1: Danny Robinson
30-1: Dominic Orsini
40-1: The Field

[wabashcpa]

I may have to go with the field depending on who wins the Putko/Rice QB battle.  Might take either one of them actually.

[wally_wabash]

I may have to go with the field depending on who wins the Putko/Rice QB battle.  Might take either one of them actually.

I think my main concern with Wabash-QB-for-OPOY is usage rate.  Over the last three years, Wabash basically runs twice per pass attempt.  Even if ER lands on one guy to take the bulk of the snaps, recent history indicates that Wabash isn't likely to throw enough for a QB to accumulate the kinds of stats that are necessary to win this award. 

None of that is to say that I think Wabash is offensively deficient.  On the contrary, I think Wabash's 2015 offense is going to be really, really good.  It's just the way that ER uses QBs doesn't lend itself well to a QB being the top offensive player in the conference...contrasted with the way CC used QBs, which made their being OPOY almost a forgone conclusion. 

[Sir Battlescars]

I'm handicapping the 2015 OPOY award because why not.  Here's what I've got:

4-1: Mason Zurek
7-1: Zach Jenkins
10-1: Zach Culvahouse
12-1: DuShawn Brown
12-1: Matt Hunt
20-1: Amen Galley
25-1: Drake Christen
28-1: Justin Cruz
30-1: Danny Robinson
30-1: Dominic Orsini
40-1: The Field

I'll put my money on Jenkins. If you ask me, it's a no brainer. He has a lot of experience and a ton of weapons around him. And the Witt D will most likely keep him on the field.

[oldtiger]

I'm handicapping the 2015 OPOY award because why not.  Here's what I've got:

4-1: Mason Zurek
7-1: Zach Jenkins
10-1: Zach Culvahouse
12-1: DuShawn Brown
12-1: Matt Hunt
20-1: Amen Galley
25-1: Drake Christen
28-1: Justin Cruz
30-1: Danny Robinson
30-1: Dominic Orsini
40-1: The Field

I'll put my money on Jenkins. If you ask me, it's a no brainer. He has a lot of experience and a ton of weapons around him. And the Witt D will most likely keep him on the field.

I hope you're correct, and it's definitely possible; but, tape of Witt vs. W&J will probably be popular in the opponents' defensive rooms when prepping for the Tigers. As always, cohesive o-line play is crucial for success and losing a Sr., 3 yr. letter winner, All-NCAC guy certainly doesn't help that area.

Witt proposed upgrades:
http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/news/news/local/wittenberg-presents-details-of-30m-athletic-facili/nnFBh/

I imagine they'll stick a press box somewhere.

[sigma one]

An NCAC curiosity:  DePauw lists 13(!) QBs on its 2015 roster.  Seven of them are freshmen.  We all know that young QBs might end up at another position, but that's a lot of signal callers.

[wabashcpa]

Recognized a few freshman names on the DePauw roster - Matt Labus was on Guerin's state championship team in basketball and won Trester Award.  Zach Williams from Avon is a good player, and Hunter Sego from Madison (dad was a swimmer at Wabash and fraternity brother of mine).  Need to have a talk with Hunter's dad!

[wally_wabash]

It's camp week!  I assume everybody but DePauw is reporting sometime this week (DePauw doesn't play week 1 so I'll assume they start camp later than the rest of us).  Really starting to ramp up now. 

[wally_wabash]

Here's how I think it shakes out in the NCAC this year.  Do note that I have no sources and a lot of this is speculation on my part...for a more thorough and informed breakdown of the NCAC in 2015, get Kickoff.   

Alright, let's get this started:

Allegheny (1-8, 1-9) - So I sort of thought for sure that Allegheny was on an upward trajectory from 2013's total rebuild.  But here's the thing- Allegheny was 1-9 in 2014 and that team has now lost 12 seniors, 13 for practical purposes if you count the guy that played both ways.  Uh oh.  Nigro is entering his third year and if you're going to have experience, QB is the place you want it.  So probably less mistakes there, but there is a whole lot of new stuff around him.  That one step forward in 2014 might be two steps back in 2015. 

Kenyon (1-8, 1-9) - Kenyon has a lot coming back here in 2015.  That's the good news.  The bad news is that they were not particularly competitive in 2014.  I do think Kenyon is much improved here this fall, but there is a big gap to catch the next tier of teams and some of those teams are also improved in 2015.  I have the Lords beating Wooster later in the year (off of the bye week)...the other possible wins here I thought might be Oberlin and Allegheny- both road games where I took the home team. 

Wooster (1-8, 1-9) - Something smells funny to me around Wooster football.  The Scots HC is a former DC of a top 20 team and in two years his Wooster teams have been really, really bad on that side of the ball.  There was something funky about the way the quarterback situation was handled in the last half of last fall.  Now, Wooster has almost nobody returning with starting experience and their best returning player by far, Darrian Owens, is also gone.  This is a team that is basically starting over in 2015 and, at least from the spectator's perch here, I'm not sure everybody on that team is all aboard the Frank Colaprete train.  Lot of growing pains this year for Wooster.  We live in a  world where Wooster and Allegheny might very seriously be the bottom two teams in the NCAC.  That's almost unfathomable.   The times, they have changed. 

Hiram (3-6, 3-7) - Hiram is a big mystery.  I've bought in to the idea that there is a different mindset around that team now.  They bring back a lot of that defense, which is now a pretty experienced group.  Offensively Britton Lewis and Danny Robinson are really good players.  We'll see how they fill out their offensive line, but most glaringly they need a quarterback.  I doubt that the Terriers have a Partridge substitute, but if they can get adequate QB play (read: not catastrophically bad), I think they'll be able to maintain a lot of the momentum they've built in 2014.  If the QB play isn't there, they may slide back.  But mostly, I think there are more good players on that roster right now than at any time since they've joined the league in 2000 and I'm buying at least 3 wins for this team. 

Oberlin (4-5, 4-6) - We're starting to get into that upward cycle for Oberlin where the kids that stepped in after the last really strong senior class are upperclassmen.  That usually means Oberlin is going to give some good teams fits.  Poggiali is into his third year as a starter, Buckhannon is a solid RB, Justin Cruz is really, really hard to defend (reminds me of Witjes).  Lots returning on defense as well- this was the most scored on defense in 2014, so those returning players will need to do much better obviously.  I'm also counting 57 players on the Oberlin roster which is as many as they've had in as long as I can remember.  That added depth should help the cause in Oberlin. 

Denison (5-4, 6-4) - Denison is retooling the offense a bit with the graduation of Brandon Sklenar who was really undervalued in the league I think.  They do have reigning OPOY DuShawn Brown back for one more assault on the record books- we'll see if they can find an arm to get him the ball.  The Big Red do return a ton of dudes on a defense that was respectable in 2014 (4th/5th in most major defensive categories).  Jack Hatem is doing a really good job at Denison which we probably don't talk about enough. 

Ohio Wesleyan (6-3, 6-4) - OWU and Denison are really similar in my mind, the main difference being I know who OWU's QB is going to be and I think Orsini is a good player.  He's got a year under his belt now, I think the personnel has cycled through now where we're seeing this team be the thing Tom Watts wants it to be.  The Bishops return a bunch from a young defense in 2014 and should be closer to a  solid OWU defense that we usually get out of that team.  After a rough opening salve (UMHB, @Witt), OWU gets home games with Oberlin and Denison- games they should be fully primed for. 

DePauw (7-2, 8-2) - 17 returning starters, you guys.  All five offensive linemen.  Quarterback.  Running back.  in 2014 DePauw basically rolled the rest of the non-Wabash/Witt league, minus a screwy hiccup against OWU at home.  That's a game a young team drops.  They aren't dropping that game this time around.  I don't think that this group quite has the dudes to beat Witt or Wabash, but they'll be tough to beat and they're going to wipe out the rest of the league.  I expect they'll come into the Monon Bell game at 8-1 and a shot at a share of the conference championship pending the result of September's Witt/Wabash game.  This is a good team- one I expect will be regionally ranked and perhaps hanging around the back end of the top 25 by November. 

Wittenberg (8-1, 9-1) - Wittenberg has a ton of firepower coming back on offense.  Jenkins had a great season stepping in for Reed Florence. Culvahouse is a tough guard and those two are going to pile up tons of yards and TDs in 2015.  If the Tigers can figure out how to work in senior RB duo Gary/Dehnke, defenses are going to have a really, really hard time against this team.  We'll see how big the loss of Alec Nutting is at the center position.  That could be a pretty big deal, particularly early in the season.  Flip it around and now Witt has a lot of holes to fill.  A lot of good players are gone from a defense that I think most of us overlooked in 2014.  I don't think Witt is going to turn into a team that gives up 28 ppg- they've got depth there and they'll be fine.  I do think the road trip to Wabash is where they stumble, but that's going to be a tough, tough game as it always is.  I think they'll be in the playoffs win or lose against Wabash. 

Wabash (9-0, 10-0) - 8 returning starters on offense including all five offensive linemen.  Not included- Mason Zurek.  He's back, too.  I think this offense is really, really good.  I have no idea who is going to play quarterback (my hunch is Putko and Rice will share again), but I've seen Wabash share QB time enough now to not get overly itchy about rotating.  ER clearly has his guys prepared and ready for that system.  And for the most part, both guys have been good when they've played- the glaring exception was at Witt in 2014 where both guys really struggled.  Wabash will need better play from that position to win on 9/26 regardless of who is playing.  Sammy Adams has been a strong receiver for Wabash (nice, big target out there) and Drake Christen scored a bunch of TDs from a bunch of different spots last year.  He's a tough matchup.  But the offense will center around Zurek.  He's clearly the #1 back and he has been outstanding.  Z is going to pile up yards this year in the featured back role.  Wabash lost some all-timers on defense.  Cody Buresh, AJ Akinribade, Denzel Wilkins, Houston Hodges- these are all guys that contributed as freshmen into the tournament in 2011.  Lots and lots of experience to replace there.  But Wabash does return a strong secondary in full, there's another Buresh who excelled last year, three more starters on the DL and plenty of talented players that have been waiting their turn to get in at the now open LB spots.  And BJ Hammer is the best DC in the league and he's still calling the shots.  The defense will be fine.  Wabash gets Witt at home and I think that's the major difference.  Also watch the week 11 game with DePauw- That game could well be for an automatic ticket to the tournament. 

That's what I've got.  I think Witt and Wabash are separated from the league by quite a bit. Depauw is closing that gap and I think have really separated from the rest of the league.  The middle tier of teams I think are coming and going in fits and starts...any one of those teams that gets some traction could have a strong season as well.  And I think Allegheny and Wooster are in for long, long seasons and could post records that grab attention in all the wrong ways. 

[wabashcpa]

Good job, good read.  Getting itchy for everything to get going!

[BashDad]

Love it. Thanks, Wally.

[sigma one]

Lots for people to chew on there, Wally.  Thanks for the analysis.  For what it's worth, I see the Bell Game this year in Greencastle as the first legitimate challenge to Wabash after six consecutive Little Giant victories.  But mid-November is a long way off, and injuries and upsets could affect the line as the game nears.
           I've read Wooster's own season preview on their football site.  I'm scratching my head.  Lots of position changes again this year, which seems to be a Coloprete trademark as he fiddles with both sides of the ball.  I can't speculate about whether he is making the most of his personnel,  I wonder though about the wisdom of too much moving multiple pieces around on the board.  I have not seen many of his earlier position changes turn players in stars at their new positions.
          I am also struck that, according to the NCAC pre-season media guide, Allegheny and Wooster have the fewest returning starters in the conference.  You place them at the bottom of the league, with good reason (though I do think Wooster will win more than one game). Interesting to me are the followiing:
               *How will the Wabash defense function without those multi-year, all conference players (fine I believe with what they have
                 returning)?  Can Zurek stay healthy?  The returning receiving corps should help the running game by presenting a consistent
                 threat to defenses.
               *Can Wittenberg figure a way to get the running game going with two talented senior backs (if they do, wow)?  They have all those
                 talented receivers coming back, and a QB who is a potential POY again.      And they always find players to replace their losses.
               
               *Is DePauw ready to win a game v. Wabash and/or Witt, and avoid being blindsided by someone else?
               *Who emerges in the middle of the conference (the OWU/Denison matchup is intriguing:  the big Red lose an outstanding--
                 underrated--QB, and a fine RB, while returning the core of the defense. The Bishops lose a big-threat tight end, and their top
                 running back, but Orsini has a year under his belt, and the defense should be improved.
           
               *Hiram, Oberlin:  Who replaces Partridge to lead a line up that's pretty talented, particularly on offense.  Can Oberlin find a
                 defense?  That Buckhannon returns is a bonus for them.
               *Wooster, Allegheny, Kenyon:  they have to have more than three or four victories among them, don't they?  Wooster is the
                 biggest mystery in the league with their combination of losses, late changes at QB last year, disappearing players, and so many
                position changes.  Allegheny has some reason to be hopeful with Nigro returning for his third year at QB, but they still seem under-
                sized to me.  I keep think that some degree of competitiveness will return to Meadville, but I have no good evidence to think that it
                will be this year.
Once again, thanks Wally.   

               
                   

[wally_wabash]

sigma-

Re: non-conference games...

Wins: Wabash (vs. Hampden-Sydney), Witt (vs. Capital), DePauw (vs. Earlham), Denison (vs. Marietta)
Losses: OWU (vs. UMHB), Hiram (vs. Westminster), Wooster (vs. W&J), Kenyon (vs. Sewanee), Allegheny (vs. Thiel), Oberlin (vs. Brockport St.)

Of those projected results, the Allegheny and Hiram games are games that could tilt the other way and not really surprise me.  The other eight results I think are pretty solid.