FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wabndy]

Here we go again.  This is the last definitive post I've found from our archive with actual data.  If anybody knows if the NCAC has updated their criteria - that'd be great.

Here are the tiebreaks again, as published in 2010:
1- H2H
2- Results vs. other NCAC opponents in descending order (I believe this has to be amongst common opponents)
3- Fewest conference away losses
4- Highest preseason power ranking
5- Team with the longest conference winning streak

So with full round robin, criteria 1 and 2 are moot if we have a 3 way tie with each one loss team with a win and a loss against the other co-champions.

Scenario 1
Wabash, Witt, Denison with one loss.  Denison's loss would be at home.  Both Wabash and Witt's losses were away.  Denison gets the AQ?
Scenario 2
Denison, DePauw, and Witt with one loss. All three losses would be away.  If the power ranking is the preseason ranking, Witt would have it.  If we go to the last criteria, DePauw would have the AQ as they would have a 5 game win streak, Witt would have 2, and Denison would have 2.

[Pat Coleman]

There was a lot of carnage on the bottom of people's ballots. Four teams dropped out and ETBU slid. CMS was probably going to go into the Top 25 but they got blasted, too.

Coe was probably #26 or so on several ballots that didn't rank them, so they got the benefit of the wreckage.

Thanks smedindy!!

I was just going to say by beating an unbeaten team on the road. That's a pretty good feat in Week 7.

[wally_wabash]

I would just caution us to use those tiebreaks with caution.  Anything done pre-2013 was done at a time when the league was not playing full round robin, which means that tiebreaks that made sense then maybe don't know that we have a full round robin.  In any case, now that Wittenberg has an interest in potential tiebreak scenarios, you might see Jablonski dig up fresh tiebreaks from the league.  He's about the only local newsie that I see covering a team closely around the league (will freely admit that I'm not hunting down news articles on all NCAC teams). 

The power ranking would have referred to the ranking the league put the teams in in order to create the unbalanced schedule in the pre-round robin days.  That shouldn't have influence now (nor should it even be a thing that exists).  I should really hope that the preseason coaches poll doesn't have anything to do with it either.  How the league awards the AQ after 10 games shouldn't be influenced by what the coaches thought of one another before anybody played any games.   

[HCAlum86]

While this is NOT AT ALL a 2012 "Oberlin over Wabash" kind of win; I do think it is likely that Denison will drop a game, perhaps two.

This program is doing tremendous and has proved me wrong time and time again this year, and they very well may do so again. In fact, I hope they do. They are well on their way to being a "top-o-the-conference" type of team for the foreseeable future. However, I just think it is unfair to apply the transitive logic of Denison beat Witt, Witt beat Bash, therefore, Denison beats Bash.

The Big Red is doing extremely well, and I hope they go 10-0. I just think they lose in Greencastle and then at home against Bash. Really hope they prove me wrong.

Go Big Red, Go Terriers.

[wabco]

HCA

Not nice to root against the Little Giants.  We rooted for your team when they were on life support and continue to do so.  Glad to see HC coming on.  Simply join our merry band of those against both the Dannies and Witt.

[HCAlum86]

HCA

Not nice to root against the Little Giants.  We rooted for your team when they were on life support and continue to do so.  Glad to see HC coming on.  Simply join our merry band of those against both the Dannies and Witt.

Haha, I am not rooting AGAINST the Little Giants; rather, I would just enjoy seeing a blossoming program receiver our AQ.

Here is my entire shtick...

1). I love the NCAC. I love the schools, what it represents, and the standards of academia that our respective institutions hold themselves to; we are often cast off as snobbish in some regards by member-schools of other conferences (cough, OAC), yet I am extremely proud of our conference. Having said that, I think it is nearly inarguable that Wabash and Wittenberg would represent our conference better in the playoffs -- meaning they would likely have a greater chance of advancing than Denison. I think that is important for our conference, but I do not think it's the end all be all.

2) Although I do not see Denison advancing, should they make the playoffs, I ultimately believe it would be good for the conference. Having four member institutions with playoff berths since 2010 would do wonders for our conference, in my opinion. A Denison berth gives the conference another recognizable name, which in turn gives the NCAC a better shot at gaining at-large bids in the future. For example, here is a hypothetical scenario: Witt goes 8-2 in 2012 but loses in close games to Denison and Wabash -- 0% chance of making the playoffs. Now apply that scenario to 2018, Witt loses two close games to Denison and Wabash, both have made playoff appearances the last two years, and both have been ranked in the top 25 -- there is now a chance of an 8-2 at large bid that was widely unthinkable years prior, though still a tough sell.

3) I know how it feels to watch your program struggle. For that reason, I will always cheer for a program turnaround. I hold the same hope for Wooster and, with Stanford at the wheel, feel strongly that Hiram is only 2-3 years away from 7-3 or 8-2.

But in the meantime, I am just here for the party. Go Dawgs.

[matblake]

For example, here is a hypothetical scenario: Witt goes 8-2 in 2012 but loses in close games to Denison and Wabash -- 0% chance of making the playoffs. Now apply that scenario to 2018, Witt loses two close games to Denison and Wabash, both have made playoff appearances the last two years, and both have been ranked in the top 25 -- there is now a chance of an 8-2 at large bid that was widely unthinkable years prior, though still a tough sell.

HC, I'm sure you know this, but it's a good reminder for everyone, the top 25 on this site, although fun and helping with a national picture, has no relation to playoff qualifying.  Pool C is simply selected by the NCAA criteria for that particular year. 

[HCAlum86]

For example, here is a hypothetical scenario: Witt goes 8-2 in 2012 but loses in close games to Denison and Wabash -- 0% chance of making the playoffs. Now apply that scenario to 2018, Witt loses two close games to Denison and Wabash, both have made playoff appearances the last two years, and both have been ranked in the top 25 -- there is now a chance of an 8-2 at large bid that was widely unthinkable years prior, though still a tough sell.

HC, I'm sure you know this, but it's a good reminder for everyone, the top 25 on this site, although fun and helping with a national picture, has no relation to playoff qualifying.  Pool C is simply selected by the NCAA criteria for that particular year.

Understood, and that's definitely important to note.

[jmcozenlaw]

There was a lot of carnage on the bottom of people's ballots. Four teams dropped out and ETBU slid. CMS was probably going to go into the Top 25 but they got blasted, too.

Coe was probably #26 or so on several ballots that didn't rank them, so they got the benefit of the wreckage.

Thanks smedindy!!

Not that I see it happening whatsoever, but by that logic, DelVal could jump to Stevenson's spot (from #25 to #15) if they were to beat that undefeated team on the road in Week Eight?

I was just going to say by beating an unbeaten team on the road. That's a pretty good feat in Week 7.

[wally_wabash]

Perhaps, jm, but Del Val's loss probably limits how high they would climb with a win at Stevenson.  I think the poll response there would be to see those teams come together somewhere around #20 as opposed to a complete position swap between Del Val and Stevenson.  Coe's big boost comes along with being undefeated and running the Wartburg/Central/Dubuque gauntlet.  That's not quite the Morningside/UWO/UWP stretch that UWW had earlier (still shocked more #1 votes didn't drift their way after that), but that's a pretty mean three-week run nonetheless. 

Also keep an eye on Wesley as we go along here.  A lot shine went off of the Wesley result for Del Val with their 1-2 start, but if they keep winning (possible, and a big game this weekend with Rowan) and end up winning the NJAC, Del Val should some residual poll inertia there. 

[wally_wabash]

This program is doing tremendous and has proved me wrong time and time again this year, and they very well may do so again. In fact, I hope they do. They are well on their way to being a "top-o-the-conference" type of team for the foreseeable future. However, I just think it is unfair to apply the transitive logic of Denison beat Witt, Witt beat Bash, therefore, Denison beats Bash.

You don't need transitive property stuff here to believe in Denison. 
-They're 35th in total offense; 71st rush offense (187.7 ypg), 40th pass offense (286.8 ypg)...really nice balance
-30th in total defense
-7th in 3rd down %, 35th in 3rd down % defense...this team gets the ball back and keeps the ball when they have it which leads to...
-8th in TOP (34:32).  Now I usually poo poo the TOP stat because I don't think it's necessary to win (Franklin, Oshkosh, SJF, WashU...all having great years, all possess the ball 26 minutes or less per game, all in the bottom 16 in that category in D3), but it's a good sign of how Denison is really in total control of their games.  Everybody they play is playing to the tempo that Denison wants them to. 

And you need a star?  Canaan Gebele is your star and he touches the ball every play.  This cat leads the NCAC in rushing with over 100 ypg AND is 7th in D3 in total offense.  He's also scored more TDs than anybody else in the NCAC.  He completes 70.7 percent of his passes.  That's fourth in D3 and on over 30 attempts per game, so we're not working with limited sample sizes here.  And for as much as he handles the ball, he's got just three turnovers (1 INT, 2 lost fumbles).  Dudes, this is all-region stuff right here. 

None of this is cute or accidental after six games and a win against Wittenberg.  That Wittenberg win was skill and guts and none of the "the favorites turned the thing over seven times and got upset" that usually comes along with big upsets.  These guys are real, real good and absolutely have the chops to run the table. 

[smedindy]

Gebele was almost as efficient last year, and he's got two more years to go.

He's also a Data Analytics major so he's got the mind for assessing the defense logically and has the skills as well. Leading a team in rushing and passing may not be so odd in the days of the read option, but by far he's got to be the leader for the Gregory award. And as a data analyst, he'll know this isn't a small sample size, either.

The scariest thing, they hardly have any skill players that are seniors, and most of their defense are going to be around next year too. If Hatem can keep the pipeline going, we may have a program that's a constant challenger for the title. We wanted a team from 'the others' to break through - it may be here.

[jmcozenlaw]

This program is doing tremendous and has proved me wrong time and time again this year, and they very well may do so again. In fact, I hope they do. They are well on their way to being a "top-o-the-conference" type of team for the foreseeable future. However, I just think it is unfair to apply the transitive logic of Denison beat Witt, Witt beat Bash, therefore, Denison beats Bash.

You don't need transitive property stuff here to believe in Denison. 
-They're 35th in total offense; 71st rush offense (187.7 ypg), 40th pass offense (286.8 ypg)...really nice balance
-30th in total defense
-7th in 3rd down %, 35th in 3rd down % defense...this team gets the ball back and keeps the ball when they have it which leads to...
-8th in TOP (34:32).  Now I usually poo poo the TOP stat because I don't think it's necessary to win (Franklin, Oshkosh, SJF, WashU...all having great years, all possess the ball 26 minutes or less per game, all in the bottom 16 in that category in D3), but it's a good sign of how Denison is really in total control of their games.  Everybody they play is playing to the tempo that Denison wants them to. 

And you need a star?  Canaan Gebele is your star and he touches the ball every play.  This cat leads the NCAC in rushing with over 100 ypg AND is 7th in D3 in total offense.  He's also scored more TDs than anybody else in the NCAC.  He completes 70.7 percent of his passes.  That's fourth in D3 and on over 30 attempts per game, so we're not working with limited sample sizes here.  And for as much as he handles the ball, he's got just three turnovers (1 INT, 2 lost fumbles).  Dudes, this is all-region stuff right here. 

None of this is cute or accidental after six games and a win against Wittenberg.  That Wittenberg win was skill and guts and none of the "the favorites turned the thing over seven times and got upset" that usually comes along with big upsets.  These guys are real, real good and absolutely have the chops to run the table.

Wally, I'm not familiar with Gebele. Given his numbers and his obvious smarts, does he become the next Joe Callahan (Wesley) and at least get a good look from the NFL, if not actually making a roster?

[jmcozenlaw]

HCA

Not nice to root against the Little Giants.  We rooted for your team when they were on life support and continue to do so.  Glad to see HC coming on.  Simply join our merry band of those against both the Dannies and Witt.

Haha, I am not rooting AGAINST the Little Giants; rather, I would just enjoy seeing a blossoming program receiver our AQ.

Here is my entire shtick...

1). I love the NCAC. I love the schools, what it represents, and the standards of academia that our respective institutions hold themselves to; we are often cast off as snobbish in some regards by member-schools of other conferences (cough, OAC), yet I am extremely proud of our conference. Having said that, I think it is nearly inarguable that Wabash and Wittenberg would represent our conference better in the playoffs -- meaning they would likely have a greater chance of advancing than Denison. I think that is important for our conference, but I do not think it's the end all be all.

2) Although I do not see Denison advancing, should they make the playoffs, I ultimately believe it would be good for the conference. Having four member institutions with playoff berths since 2010 would do wonders for our conference, in my opinion. A Denison berth gives the conference another recognizable name, which in turn gives the NCAC a better shot at gaining at-large bids in the future. For example, here is a hypothetical scenario: Witt goes 8-2 in 2012 but loses in close games to Denison and Wabash -- 0% chance of making the playoffs. Now apply that scenario to 2018, Witt loses two close games to Denison and Wabash, both have made playoff appearances the last two years, and both have been ranked in the top 25 -- there is now a chance of an 8-2 at large bid that was widely unthinkable years prior, though still a tough sell.

3) I know how it feels to watch your program struggle. For that reason, I will always cheer for a program turnaround. I hold the same hope for Wooster and, with Stanford at the wheel, feel strongly that Hiram is only 2-3 years away from 7-3 or 8-2.

But in the meantime, I am just here for the party. Go Dawgs.

If the OAC actually considers the conference "snobbish"..........imagine what everybody says about the New England schools and their conferences. Now THAT is snobbery (including the $65,000/year private prep schools).

[jmcozenlaw]

Perhaps, jm, but Del Val's loss probably limits how high they would climb with a win at Stevenson.  I think the poll response there would be to see those teams come together somewhere around #20 as opposed to a complete position swap between Del Val and Stevenson.  Coe's big boost comes along with being undefeated and running the Wartburg/Central/Dubuque gauntlet.  That's not quite the Morningside/UWO/UWP stretch that UWW had earlier (still shocked more #1 votes didn't drift their way after that), but that's a pretty mean three-week run nonetheless. 

Also keep an eye on Wesley as we go along here.  A lot shine went off of the Wesley result for Del Val with their 1-2 start, but if they keep winning (possible, and a big game this weekend with Rowan) and end up winning the NJAC, Del Val should some residual poll inertia there.

Thanks Wally. Great points and logic (which I don't find much on the dying MAC board with bman, simba and PBR in the Witness Protection Program..........or out campaigning for Gary Johnson)