FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

If I didn't know better, I'd think Wabash was 2-5 reading this forum this year.  About 200 teams in Division III would love to have Wabash's "problems".  I get some of the frustration I really do, but can we at least play the season out instead of fast-forwarding to all of this depressing post-mortem?  These guys might actually surprise you and win a few more games.

[smedindy]

In 2011, Wabash only beat Oberlin by 14 and Allegheny by six, FWIW.

[Li'l Giant]

I mean, we could have the drop from last year to this that Albion made. Imagine what that would be like.

[HCAlum86]

There is but only one truly PERFECT judgment call for AQ's in the instance of a tie -- Battle Royale. Wabash, Witt, and Denison each choose one player to enter the octagon. Three men enter, one man leaves... with a playoff spot.

[jknezek]

There is but only one truly PERFECT judgment call for AQ's in the instance of a tie -- Battle Royale. Wabash, Witt, and Denison each choose one player to enter the octagon. Three men enter, one man leaves... with a playoff spot.

It should be the head coaches. The players did their part during the season. 3 coaches enter, first to the golden envelop gets the AQ. Ensures we always have a fresh supply of head coaches as no one would want to risk an old man in this situation. Plus it would give the coaches a good incentive to work hard during those pre-season 2 a days!

[HCAlum86]

There is but only one truly PERFECT judgment call for AQ's in the instance of a tie -- Battle Royale. Wabash, Witt, and Denison each choose one player to enter the octagon. Three men enter, one man leaves... with a playoff spot.

It should be the head coaches. The players did their part during the season. 3 coaches enter, first to the golden envelop gets the AQ. Ensures we always have a fresh supply of head coaches as no one would want to risk an old man in this situation. Plus it would give the coaches a good incentive to work hard during those pre-season 2 a days!

VALID POINT. Perhaps even school Presidents! Earn that salary and show us how much you love the student body.

[cave2bens]

There is but only one truly PERFECT judgment call for AQ's in the instance of a tie -- Battle Royale. Wabash, Witt, and Denison each choose one player to enter the octagon. Three men enter, one man leaves... with a playoff spot.

It should be the head coaches. The players did their part during the season. 3 coaches enter, first to the golden envelop gets the AQ. Ensures we always have a fresh supply of head coaches as no one would want to risk an old man in this situation. Plus it would give the coaches a good incentive to work hard during those pre-season 2 a days!

VALID POINT. Perhaps even school Presidents! Earn that salary and show us how much you love the student body.

+k to both for providing creative levity to burdensome subject matter. 

[smedindy]

I mean, we could have the drop from last year to this that Albion made. Imagine what that would be like.

That's just nuts. I can't even....

Humboldt State (D-2) went from 7-4 in 2012, 0-11 in 2013 and 8-2 in 2014 and 10-2 in 2015 (making the D-2 playoffs). They had the same coach, too, like Albion.

So it happens, but wow, it sure is odd and frustrating.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Albion falling off the map is surprising, but on closer examination...they graduated a senior quarterback that threw for 2,976 yards and 34 TD's; two senior 1,000 yard running backs; and eight of the nine guys who caught >5 passes last year were seniors (plus last year's leading receiver, then a junior, is not listed on this year's roster).  Basically what I'm saying is, they lost pretty much every single guy that handled the ball in a game last year (not just in big moments or big games, but in any game, period).  They also lost six of their 10 leading tacklers as well.  That's probably 95 percent of the overall "production" from the best Albion team since the inception of this website.  Really good programs can reload somewhat from heavy losses, but Albion isn't quite on that level.  FWIW, I'd also expect them to bounce back somewhat next year.  This isn't quite Allegheny falling into the abyss and losing 50-0 every week.  Albion is scoring points in every game, and they've been competitive in most of the losses (including a 40-38 loss to Lakeland on a TD pass with 7 seconds to play and a 28-21 loss to Adrian where the winning TD was scored with 1:36 to play).

Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

[wally_wabash]

Albion falling off the map is surprising, but on closer examination...they graduated a senior quarterback that threw for 2,976 yards and 34 TD's; two senior 1,000 yard running backs; and eight of the nine guys who caught >5 passes last year were seniors (plus last year's leading receiver, then a junior, is not listed on this year's roster).  Basically what I'm saying is, they lost pretty much every single guy that handled the ball in a game last year (not just in big moments or big games, but in any game, period).  They also lost six of their 10 leading tacklers as well.  That's probably 95 percent of the overall "production" from the best Albion team since the inception of this website.  Really good programs can reload somewhat from heavy losses, but Albion isn't quite on that level.  FWIW, I'd also expect them to bounce back somewhat next year.  This isn't quite Allegheny falling into the abyss and losing 50-0 every week.  Albion is scoring points in every game, and they've been competitive in most of the losses (including a 40-38 loss to Lakeland on a TD pass with 7 seconds to play and a 28-21 loss to Adrian where the winning TD was scored with 1:36 to play).

Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

It's too bad the NCAA's SOS doesn't give a rip about Albion being somewhat competitive.  That 0-7 is killing Wabash right now. 

[smedindy]

I didn't think Wabash's SOS would be this bad, but it's 231. That's near the bottom.

It will improve with the next three games, but there's really not a lot they can do to come back from that. Wabash needs the AQ to feel safe - win out and hope things take care of themselves.

[DadofBashWarrior..]

I believe that one of the largest responsibilities,  of a football coaching staff is to create a culture of toughness, discipline, respect and a winning attitude...  It's the biggest unknown of any coaching change.. what will their culture be? or more importantly,  how much will the culture change from what the returning players are used to?

Lastly,  if players don't have all of the above instilled in them or they lose respect, in any way, for the new coaching staff,  their overall talent can become secondary.. and a situation can develop where players begin to "go through the motions"

Sure,  injuries to key individuals matter,  but much of winning in the trenches comes down to toughness, discipline and execution.

In week 3, after losing their first two games, Washington State Coach went public and called his football team weak and as tough as a girls volleyball team.., like Coach Leach or not.. it worked and WSU has won 5 straight (4 PAC 12) contests and is now considered to have one of the top o-lines in the Country.  It is the same starting 5 that lost their initial 2 games.. (to lower rated opponents)  Same talent/different mindset.

Food for thought.

WAF!

All about the coaching...I like it...my mantra

[formerd3db]

Ok..  then take Jim Harbaugh..as an example. Sure he brought in some significant talent early,  but I believe the culture he brought to Michigan was the most important thing in turning that program around in short order.

Or CC at Eastern Michigan... 


Agree, that is the most important aspect.  For sure that has happened at Eastern Michigan and Michigan this year as you said.  I have also held to that principle and said that in past years for other programs-i.e. additional examples are Northwestern and even our own MIAA Olivet. 
Culture matters. 

[formerd3db]

Albion falling off the map is surprising, but on closer examination...they graduated a senior quarterback that threw for 2,976 yards and 34 TD's; two senior 1,000 yard running backs; and eight of the nine guys who caught >5 passes last year were seniors (plus last year's leading receiver, then a junior, is not listed on this year's roster).  Basically what I'm saying is, they lost pretty much every single guy that handled the ball in a game last year (not just in big moments or big games, but in any game, period).  They also lost six of their 10 leading tacklers as well.  That's probably 95 percent of the overall "production" from the best Albion team since the inception of this website.  Really good programs can reload somewhat from heavy losses, but Albion isn't quite on that level.  FWIW, I'd also expect them to bounce back somewhat next year.  This isn't quite Allegheny falling into the abyss and losing 50-0 every week.  Albion is scoring points in every game, and they've been competitive in most of the losses (including a 40-38 loss to Lakeland on a TD pass with 7 seconds to play and a 28-21 loss to Adrian where the winning TD was scored with 1:36 to play).

Back to your regularly scheduled programming.

ExTartan:

Your analysis of this year is spot on.  However, I will just add that this year, like some of our colleagues here have alluded to, is an anomaly for Albion.  They have lost as much in past years, yet, in those other times, somehow (like Mount Union does) have almost always managed to reload as there people "waiting in the wings" were ready to step up and continue on, even despite less playing time experience.  No so this year.  Overall, I also tend to think it is, in part, another sign that the talent in the MIAA is just not what it was years ago.  Just my opinion and observation.   I, do agree it is baffling.  But I will also (shamelessly) admit , I am not feeling sorry for them being they are our longtime (and, yes, much heated) rival

[wally_wabash]

I didn't think Wabash's SOS would be this bad, but it's 231. That's near the bottom.

It will improve with the next three games, but there's really not a lot they can do to come back from that. Wabash needs the AQ to feel safe - win out and hope things take care of themselves.

A couple of things to keep in mind as you watch Wabash's SOS. 
- Wabash has a pretty nice OOWP, which is 1/3 of the final SOS number.  As the rest of the league round robin fills out, that number (currently 0.5442) will drift back to .5000.  It looks to me like the NCAC's non-league opponents (Wabash's opponent's opponents) have done about the same as they did last year, so that number should be about the same as it was last year for Wabash (0.4872), but the Earlham-for-MSJ swap DePauw did this year will help that a little. 

If I use last year's OOWP as a reference point, my math tells me Wabash is going to wind up with an NCAA SOS of somewhere between 0.480 and 0.459 depending on how many of these last three games Albion can win.  The higher number isn't good, but it isn't super terrible, particularly when paired with a regionally ranked win and favorable rankings placement (right behind the CCIW runner up).  Whitworth made the field last year with a .490 and a flimsier RRO profile than Wabash would have this year.  The lower number is definitely out of the mucky-muck that Wabash is in currently, but is likely going to be in the bottom 40 of the division- and that might be a deal breaker.   

Which gives me one more chance to reiterate how bad DePauw losing to OWU (again) was for Wabash.  Had Wabash been able to counter the SOS with the fact that they played 30% of their schedule against regionally ranked teams and won two of those games (opposite ideas...how can you play a really bad schedule when 3 of your 10 games are against ranked teams?), you can kind of pull that SOS out of the vacuum that it currently lives in and give it some context.  But DePauw won't show up at all as being a game that was any more meaningful than a game against Kenyon.  That's just a bad break.