FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[bleedpurple]

Jim Catanzaro eloquently (too eloquently!) enumerated the number of ways Wabash's loss on Saturday was damaging.  Not just that it was going to cost Wabash their spot in the top 25, but UWSP is likely to be a mid-pack team in their own conference** and end up with 4-5 wins on the season- so this is a loss to a team that won't be ranked at the end of the year, a definite negative for the selection committee.  UWSP finishing with just four or five wins means no help to Wabash's SOS, another negative (this was true win or lose).  And lastly, whereas USWP is a common opponent between Wabash and John Carroll (another North region playoff hopeful), Wabash is pretty much always going to live behind JCU in the regional rankings thanks to this common opponent result.  This isn't going to matter if Wabash loses a second game, but if both of these teams wind up 9-1, it really puts Wabash in a spot where hosting a playoff game might be out of the question. 

I don't mean to put the cart before the horse here either, with the playoff talk.  Wabash has a tough bounce back this week traveling all the way out to Meadville.  If you think, like I do, that the biggest areas for improvement here are DL and secondary play, then this game should concern you.  Allegheny is going to spread it out and sling it all over the place.  If Wabash can't get to Naz Greer any more than they got to Matt Urmanski, whoo boy.  Watch out.  This is serious challenge this week for Jeff Ramsey and his defense. 

** I think it's worth noting here that UWSP is as good as anybody else Wabash will play this year, despite what their final record is likely to be.  That's a testament to level of ball being played in the WIAC (top ranked conference by D3Football.com, and it's honestly not close).  It's also why that home and home series was so risky.  UWSP was always going to be a challenging team to play- again, as good as anybody else on the Wabash schedule- but there was never going to be a ton of reward from playing and winning those games.  It isn't good for SOS, there's no RRO opportunity.  It's a high quality opponent with none of the ancillary benefits that typically come along with playing almost any other team of that caliber.

Wally, I have a question for you.  Based on this line of thinking, which I agree with, can an argument be made that it is actually a smarter move to schedule UW-W than a UW-SP because of the more likely positive impact on OWP, RRO, and SOS?

[wally_wabash]

A north region opponent, unranked.  A weak defense, especially when it mattered.   A very bad loss.  A championship or playoff team won't lose a game like that.  They might get better, sure.  But as I said, as of now Wabash is simply not such a team.

Not a north region team (wrong)
they were unranked (correct)
the defense wasn't great (correct)
Not a bad loss by really any reasonable measure (wrong)
Playoff teams lose games like this all the time! Notably Johns Hopkins who lost to Susquehanna last year and ended up in the final four (wrong)
Basically everybody gets better after their first game (wrong)

2/3 of your post is flat out incorrect and misinformed.  People have really got to get over the Pouty McPoutface that happens every single time Wabash doesn't win a game by 73 points.  It's toxic.  We can do better. 

[wally_wabash]

Jim Catanzaro eloquently (too eloquently!) enumerated the number of ways Wabash's loss on Saturday was damaging.  Not just that it was going to cost Wabash their spot in the top 25, but UWSP is likely to be a mid-pack team in their own conference** and end up with 4-5 wins on the season- so this is a loss to a team that won't be ranked at the end of the year, a definite negative for the selection committee.  UWSP finishing with just four or five wins means no help to Wabash's SOS, another negative (this was true win or lose).  And lastly, whereas USWP is a common opponent between Wabash and John Carroll (another North region playoff hopeful), Wabash is pretty much always going to live behind JCU in the regional rankings thanks to this common opponent result.  This isn't going to matter if Wabash loses a second game, but if both of these teams wind up 9-1, it really puts Wabash in a spot where hosting a playoff game might be out of the question. 

I don't mean to put the cart before the horse here either, with the playoff talk.  Wabash has a tough bounce back this week traveling all the way out to Meadville.  If you think, like I do, that the biggest areas for improvement here are DL and secondary play, then this game should concern you.  Allegheny is going to spread it out and sling it all over the place.  If Wabash can't get to Naz Greer any more than they got to Matt Urmanski, whoo boy.  Watch out.  This is serious challenge this week for Jeff Ramsey and his defense. 

** I think it's worth noting here that UWSP is as good as anybody else Wabash will play this year, despite what their final record is likely to be.  That's a testament to level of ball being played in the WIAC (top ranked conference by D3Football.com, and it's honestly not close).  It's also why that home and home series was so risky.  UWSP was always going to be a challenging team to play- again, as good as anybody else on the Wabash schedule- but there was never going to be a ton of reward from playing and winning those games.  It isn't good for SOS, there's no RRO opportunity.  It's a high quality opponent with none of the ancillary benefits that typically come along with playing almost any other team of that caliber.

Wally, I have a question for you.  Based on this line of thinking, which I agree with, can an argument be made that it is actually a smarter move to schedule UW-W than a UW-SP because of the more likely positive impact on OWP, RRO, and SOS?

Not until RACs and national selection committees consistently reward teams for playing Whitewater or whatever other purple power du jour might be more than they penalize teams for losing.  I think the at-large selection history would show that losing a game is generally way worse than any SOS or RRO benefits a team gets from playing a very highly ranked team (like UWW or UMU or UMHB). 

In particular, the last two years of North regional rankings have been, let's say, lacking nuance.  Until the pendulum swings back the other way and schedule quality matters, playing UW-W is about the worst strategic move a team playing the Pool C game could make.  That's an unpleasant answer, but that's the rankings/selection climate right now. 

[bleedpurple]

Jim Catanzaro eloquently (too eloquently!) enumerated the number of ways Wabash's loss on Saturday was damaging.  Not just that it was going to cost Wabash their spot in the top 25, but UWSP is likely to be a mid-pack team in their own conference** and end up with 4-5 wins on the season- so this is a loss to a team that won't be ranked at the end of the year, a definite negative for the selection committee.  UWSP finishing with just four or five wins means no help to Wabash's SOS, another negative (this was true win or lose).  And lastly, whereas USWP is a common opponent between Wabash and John Carroll (another North region playoff hopeful), Wabash is pretty much always going to live behind JCU in the regional rankings thanks to this common opponent result.  This isn't going to matter if Wabash loses a second game, but if both of these teams wind up 9-1, it really puts Wabash in a spot where hosting a playoff game might be out of the question. 

I don't mean to put the cart before the horse here either, with the playoff talk.  Wabash has a tough bounce back this week traveling all the way out to Meadville.  If you think, like I do, that the biggest areas for improvement here are DL and secondary play, then this game should concern you.  Allegheny is going to spread it out and sling it all over the place.  If Wabash can't get to Naz Greer any more than they got to Matt Urmanski, whoo boy.  Watch out.  This is serious challenge this week for Jeff Ramsey and his defense. 

** I think it's worth noting here that UWSP is as good as anybody else Wabash will play this year, despite what their final record is likely to be.  That's a testament to level of ball being played in the WIAC (top ranked conference by D3Football.com, and it's honestly not close).  It's also why that home and home series was so risky.  UWSP was always going to be a challenging team to play- again, as good as anybody else on the Wabash schedule- but there was never going to be a ton of reward from playing and winning those games.  It isn't good for SOS, there's no RRO opportunity.  It's a high quality opponent with none of the ancillary benefits that typically come along with playing almost any other team of that caliber.

Wally, I have a question for you.  Based on this line of thinking, which I agree with, can an argument be made that it is actually a smarter move to schedule UW-W than a UW-SP because of the more likely positive impact on OWP, RRO, and SOS?

Not until RACs and national selection committees consistently reward teams for playing Whitewater or whatever other purple power du jour might be more than they penalize teams for losing.  I think the at-large selection history would show that losing a game is generally way worse than any SOS or RRO benefits a team gets from playing a very highly ranked team (like UWW or UMU or UMHB). 

In particular, the last two years of North regional rankings have been, let's say, lacking nuance.  Until the pendulum swings back the other way and schedule quality matters, playing UW-W is about the worst strategic move a team playing the Pool C game could make.  That's an unpleasant answer, but that's the rankings/selection climate right now.

That is an unpleasant answer.  But it is the one I expected.  And it gets pretty frustrating trying to schedule. But it's also hard to blame a school for acting in their own self interest. 

[HCAlum86]

Can anyone cite the last time the NCAC had zero teams represented in the Top 25?

As a curious corollary to that, what is the highest an NCAC team has been ranked in the last 10-15 years? Would it be the Eddie Valery led Wittenberg teams circa 2010?

[HCAlum86]

Can anyone cite the last time the NCAC had zero teams represented in the Top 25?

As a curious corollary to that, what is the highest an NCAC team has been ranked in the last 10-15 years? Would it be the Eddie Valery led Wittenberg teams circa 2010?

Just after a cursory glance, I have Witt 2010 at #7

[Dr. Acula]

I don't recall anyone cracking the top 5.  The Wabash team that made a deep run under ER at the end was top 10 I think.  There was another Witt team that was too.  If 2010 was then it'd be either 2009 or 2011.

[sigma one]

Wabash finished #7 in the Final 2011 DIII FB poll.  They finished #8 in the final poll in 2015 and #10 in 2007.  Wittenberg was #6 in 2009 and #10 in 2013.

In the last 10 years (since 2009), Wabash has finished in the final top 25 6X.  Wittenberg 7X.  During the last decade at least one of them has finished in the top 25 every year.  Both finished in the top 25 in 2009, 2013, and 2014. 

[HCAlum86]

Wabash finished #7 in the Final 2011 DIII FB poll.  They finished #8 in the final poll in 2015 and #10 in 2007.  Wittenberg was #6 in 2009 and #10 in 2013.

In the last 10 years (since 2009), Wabash has finished in the final top 25 6X.  Wittenberg 7X.  During the last decade at least one of them has finished in the top 25 every year.  Both finished in the top 25 in 2009, 2013, and 2014.

Thanks! I have a feeling we won't see an NCAC team crack the top 25 again until week 6 or 7

[wally_wabash]

Can anyone cite the last time the NCAC had zero teams represented in the Top 25?

As a curious corollary to that, what is the highest an NCAC team has been ranked in the last 10-15 years? Would it be the Eddie Valery led Wittenberg teams circa 2010?

Just after a cursory glance, I have Witt 2010 at #7

Wabash reached #3 in 2008.

[MRMIKESMITH]

Can anyone cite the last time the NCAC had zero teams represented in the Top 25?

As a curious corollary to that, what is the highest an NCAC team has been ranked in the last 10-15 years? Would it be the Eddie Valery led Wittenberg teams circa 2010?

Just after a cursory glance, I have Witt 2010 at #7

Wabash reached #3 in 2008.

2008 is the same year we finish Top 15 and didn't make the playoffs. I think we reached Top 5 that year, but imploded against Delaware Valley. I think this the same year Delaware Valley had beaten both Salisbury and Wesley when both teams were in the Top 5 and then went on to lose 2 or conference games...sigh!

Sorry for commenting on a more NCAC conversation...

[smedindy]

Win your league! The NCAC leaders can't rely on at large committees to do their job for them.

It seems that the NCAC won't be helped by OWP much

Otterbein looks like they're going to struggle beating anyone but Capital, Muskingtum and Wilmington.
Bluffton's a meh team in a bad league
Ohio Northern's ceiling looks like 6-4. Maybe 5-5 or 4-6 depending on 'Berg and Marietta.
RPI's may have issues with Union, Ithaca and Hobart, and has a loss already.
Catholic is another meh team in a bad league. (Sorry Pat)
Kalamazoo - a meh team in a meh league. A 3-7 MIAA team isn't going to help anyone.
Stevens Point may have a struggle to .500 again. A 2-7 D3 season isn't out of the question, and Eau Claire looks improved. Damn that's a tough league. (Stout and River Falls look decent enough. The WIAC mid-pack usually feasts on their own kind).
Marietta may be a lot better but that still could mean 6-4 or 5-5 (again, depending on 'Berg and ONU)
W&J helps Witt, them, but if W&J stumbles against C-M, Case, and/or Westminster that bubble could burst too.
Central has to get through Wartburg and the IIAC can spring some upsets too.

Not everything will be worst case, but a couple of key losses and the NCAC may be looking at a champ that gets a 7 or 8, again, with no second team.

[smedindy]

2008 is the same year we finish Top 15 and didn't make the playoffs. I think we reached Top 5 that year, but imploded against Delaware Valley. I think this the same year Delaware Valley had beaten both Salisbury and Wesley when both teams were in the Top 5 and then went on to lose 2 or conference games...sigh!

Sorry for commenting on a more NCAC conversation...

It's OK, we still get salty about 1982 (10-0 and no playoffs in a bad system) and 1998 (DPU spy-gate)

[sigma one]

Full slate of NCAC games this Saturday.

DePauw (0-1) @ Kenyon (1-1)  With a number of new players at skill positions, DPU lost by 26 at Central last week.  Kenyon has an overtime win and a shut out loss.  Wally has the Tigers by 26.5.  The Kenyon defense is suspect. 
Oberlin (0-2) @ Ohio Wesleyan (2-0)  The Yoemen have not yet scored a point in their 2 losses.  OWU's defense has been solid, giving up a total of  only 10 points in 2 wins.  Wally sets up OWU by 17.5, and Oberlin's defense may make it that close.
Wabash (0-1) @ Allegheny (0-1)  I don't know what the two losses by these teams tells us.  Both look to bounce back this week.  Could be wide open.  We will find out more on Saturday about the two defenses.  Allegheny has had an extra week to prepare.  Wally  says the LGs by 11.5. 
Wooster (2-0) @ Wittenberg (1-1).  A key early-season NCAC match up.  the Scots have looked good so far, giving up only 6 total points in their two wins.  The game should say a lot about Woo's  hope to challenge for the top of the league.  Witt has a close loss, while playing outstanding defense, against a top team and an expected win last week.  Wally establishes the Tigers by 12.5 on the road. 
Hiram (0-2) @ Denison (1-0).  Hiram has not shown much in 2 losses.  Denison steamrolled Ohio Northern and was idle last week.  Wally puts the Big Red in front by 26.5.   In Granville it might not be that close. 

[Li'l Giant]

Some Big 12 defense on display in Meadville today.