FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[DePauwalum05]

Thanks for the business and financial model perspectives.  The only nuance I would add is that a modestly successful capital campaign is very unlikely to offset runaway tuition discounting of 75%+ that Witt and many other struggling small colleges are facing, especially without a sizable endowment as noted in other posts.

I'm curious about expectations going into the season.  DePauw was very good last year, but also caught some big breaks in two OT games.  It's got to be difficult to win the league four years in a row.  I was surprised to see super seniors Lowry and Quigley back, which should help.  DPU will be tested early at home against Rose and especially at Berry against a pre-season All American RB. 

Guessing 'bash, Witt and Denison will be right there as usual.  Fabrocini's return looms large, as noted on the board.  'bash has big shoes to fill at QB, but I expect Gilbert will begin to restore the program's strength on defense with many returners on that unit.  Witt is talented, but it's hard to say how a coach's untimely departure will impact them.

Would welcome any perspective on these and other questions.  Good luck to all for a fun and safe NCAC season -

[sigma one]

DPUALUM:  I think that DePauw is a huge favorite to win the conference. For the last several years, I have contributed a team by team forecast prior to the season.  I am getting ready to do that again by going through the teams as voted by the coaches for a place in the Conference.  DePauw will be the first team previewed, followed by Wabash, Wittenberg, and Denison.  I hope to be able to start either later today or tomorrow.  Then the others:  OWU, Wooster, Kenyon, Hiram, and Oberlin over a few days time.
     When you say of Wit it's hard to tell with a coach's untimely departure.  I have seen nothing about this.  Please share.

[DePauwalum05]

Thanks, Sigma.  Will look forward to your thoughtful season preview.

Gosh darn it.  My apologies for mistakenly suggesting there was a coaching change at Witt.  I must have imagined or misinterpreted a post on this board about a coach leaving to be AD elsewhere. 

[wally_wabash]

Thanks, Sigma.  Will look forward to your thoughtful season preview.

Gosh darn it.  My apologies for mistakenly suggesting there was a coaching change at Witt.  I must have imagined or misinterpreted a post on this board about a coach leaving to be AD elsewhere. 

The MBB coach did recently depart Wittenberg to be AD at Wilmington. 

[Little Giant 89]

Two Red Squad scrimmages have snuck onto the schedule against DPU on 9/5 at 5:30 and against Rose on 9/15 at 2:00, both at Little Giant Stadium.

IT'S CLOSE!   

[sigma one]

Eight days to NCAC kickoff.  Let's look at the teams in descending order based on the Coaches' poll.  Any oversights and/or errors I will correct if you let me know what I've missed or omitted.  But this is the best I can do.

#1  DEPAUW
The Tigers have won the NCAC title three straight years, with an overall record of 28-6 (27-3 in the NCAC) under Coach Dietz.  Their only regular-season losses have been to Butler, Wabash, and Wittenberg.
Last year they completed the first undefeated, 10-0, season in DPU history, only to draw Alma in the playoffs.  They are poised once again to win the conference.
OOC:  Two quality opponents. 1st, Rose-Hulman, who has played them reasonably tough recently.  2nd, a road trip to Berry in Georgia.  They were 9-1 last year and are a strong bet to be a Top 25 team this year.  In September in the South heat and humidity are always a factor, and Berry is a giant step up from last year's game v. Anderson.  The game should be rated a toss up.  Credit DEPAUW for scheduling them as a way to prepare for the conference.
RETURNING STARTERS:  Offense: 8 (7 All-NCAC)  Defense: 8 (7 All-NCAC)  Strong position groups across the board.  Of those returning, two are All-NCAC selections back for a fifth year.  They include a tight end (Quigley) and a defensive lineman who was the 2023 Defensive Player of the Year (Lowry),  With them are others who earned All-NCAC recognition, including the QB (McCahill) three linebackers who spearhead an outstanding defense (Marsh, Bruder, and Comer) and also three D-lineman (Lowry, Guhl, and Seibel).  The only significant hole to fill is at RB, although the 2nd back last year and also an all-conference RetSp (Whitehead) returns.  WR should be strong as two All-NCAC starters return (Smith, Ballentine).  Three O-linemen are back, all of them have all-conference credentials (Watkins, McCormick, and Martin).  The kicker also returns (Gomez). 
OUTLOOK:  If they get by Berry, the Tigers have the talent and tradition to once again run the table.  Last year, they were challenged by two OT games, including a 2OT win v. Wabash in the MONON BELL game.
The Bell Game is in Greencastle this year.
   

 

[The Third Division]

So Wittenberg's faculty just voted no confidence in their board.

"And so it begins"

[WAF-WDE]

https://www.daytondailynews.com/local/wittenberg-faculty-votes-no-confidence-in-university-board-as-cutbacks-loom/CBTW3JGMMRHUJPJSW3XGZVXEBY/

[sigma one]

#2  WABASH

The Little Giants come off a 7-3 season in 2023.  They lose all-everything QB (Thompson) and have to replace other key offensive weapons.  This is Coach Don Morel's final season as head coach; he will be replaced by Jake Gilbert, who is in charge of the defense now. 
OOC:  1st, ST Norbert (7-4 last year) St Norbert and Wabash have never before played.  The Green Knights come to Little Giant Stadium with a consistent program but are something of an unknown.  2nd:  UW Platteville (7-4 in 2023)  Picked to finish 4th in the competitive WIAC, UW Platteville will be formidable on the road for the LGs.  The Wisconsin teams are always tough, with probably 4-6 of them among the Best 50 or so in the country. 
RETURNING STARTERS:  O-4  D-9/10. 
     Wabash has big holes to fill at QB, RB, TE, and WR--all the skill positions.  With WAB, WIT, and WOO close in the Coaches Poll for 2nd-4th, much will be determined by succees in doing this.  On Offensive, the heir apparent at QB will be a 3-year backup (White).  The third RB will step in; he may have been Wabash best by the Bell Game last year. Among the WRs, only one returns (Thompson, Liam's younger brother).  They may be helped by a transfer from SE Missouri St.  The TE is playing a 5th year at Butler and leaves big shoes behind.  Three All-NCAC O-linemen return (Ford, Kelley, Sholar).  They will have to be productive early.  Both the K (Rucker All NCAC) and P are back (White),
    On defense, 9/10, depending on how they are counted, return  There is strength at all three levels.
D-Line is anchored by the top 5 from last year's rotation. Olive and Thomas, who have both received all-conference recognition, are back for a 5th year.  Also, returning are the DEs (Frey, Volk) and the third DT (Cree),  Two of the three LBers will play behind them.  Two of them (Ruppert, All-NCAC, Jarvis) will be joined by a starting safety from 2023, who was injured early on (Ringer).  Among the DBs,  5 of the top 7 will fight for playing time; all played significant time last year (Epstein, Hegwood, Holtsclaw, Robertson (All-NCAC Safety), Taylor).  In another move, last year's all-conference LB has switched to DB (Pasch), although it is unclear whether he is healthy enough to play 
OUTOOK:  Wabash might be 1-1 entering NCAC play.  Of course games against DEPAUW (2 OT loss in 2023), WITTENBERG, and DENISON will determine the final conference standings if things go according to form.     
WIT is on the road; DEN at home.  Unless something unforeseen happens, the NCAC is a one-bid league for the play offs.  Watching the LGs, the Old Tigers, and the Big Red square off will be one of the high points of the league in 2024--and there is always an outside chance that one of them will catch DPU on a down day.

[sigma one]

#3 WITTENBERG

Wittenberg finished 2023 7-3.  They have played DePauw better than anyone in the conference over the last two years:  in 2023 WIT went to Greencastle and unloaded on the New Tigers, 30-7.  Last year, they lost in OT, 41-35.
OOC  1st:  Baldwin-Wallace (6-4 in 2023).  A good first-week test for WIT from a quality conference.  2nd:
Howard Payne (6-4)  HPU comes out of the Southwest Conference and should be another test.  How WIT does in OOC games will tell much about their strength. 
RETURNING STARTERS  0-6   D-7
The Old Tigers attack will be centered around their returning All-NCAC QB (Milton).  Gone are their top two rushers and all but one receiver (Pope, back for a 5th year).  Also returning is a 5th year TE (Teepe). Four starters return on the O-line to give WIT strength up front (McFeeters, Bolen, Bravo, and Osterhage--All-NCAC).  The K (Goodwin) is also back.
On D, two LBers return (Smith All-NCAC and Newcomer of the year in 2023, and Snurr, 5th year).  Up front, two also return (Renick--All-NCAC, Wadsworth). At DB two more return (Stipe and Williams).
OUTLOOK:  Wit is poised to once again battle for 2nd place with the Old Tigers, Denison, and Wabash all capable of beating one another.  The big ? are the running game and consistency--they were up against DPU last year and down v. WAB, losing big in Crawfordsville.  They have the biggest roster in the conference and should find enough new starters to make them again a perennial challenger.

[sigma one]

#4 DENISON

The BIG RED may be the toughest of the Top 4 to rank effectively.  This is so due to the return of Trey Fabrocini RB, for a 5th year.  In 2022 and 2024, he rushed for a total of 2703 yds and 39 TDs.  He also caught 46 passes for another 307 yds. and 3 more TDs.  He obviously makes Denison a bigger threat than  they would have been.  (I am unsure whether the conference coaches knew of his return when ranking the teams.)

OOC  Denison has by far the toughest OOC schedule in the NCAC.  #1 Linfield (9-1 in 2023; #23 in the D3FB pre-season poll),  DEN travels 2500+ miles to Oregon to take on the Wildcats.  At home last year, they played Linfield tough before losing 28-14.  #2 Alma (12-1 in 2023, with a playoff win at Mt Union; #7 in the D3FB poll).  They could very well be 0-2 when conference play begins and go on to challenge for the title.

RETURNING STARTERES  O-7  D-6  DEN will search for a new QB.  But Coach Hatem usually has one ready.  On O, in addition to Fabrocini, 3 WRs are back (Guzzo All-NCAC, Alerson, Brownlee).  The O-lie  needs to replace 3 outstanding players.  Three return (Gause, Schneider                     Smith).  The K (Cunnigham) has been a consistent weapon.  On D, the biggest losses are up front; one starter returns (Ballenger All-NCAC). Five of the back 7 are in place.  AT LB two return (Ressor, Hallenback).  Three DBs are also back (Epps All--NCAC at DB and RetSp, Larviere, and Murphy All-NCAC)
OUTLOOK:  After their two OOC challenges, they will be relieved to get to conference play.  Along with WAB and WIT, they will compete for 2nd place in what promises to be exciting games.   





















     

[sigma one]

#5 OHIO WESLEYAN

OWU  is almost always competitive with the top group of the conference, not winning many lately but always a test.
Particularly on Defense, they can prove difficult.

OOC:  #1  Otterbein (0-10 in 2023) OWU should start 1-0 unless OTT is markedly improved.  #2 Franklin
(4-6 last year)  The Grizzlies have not been as competitive lately, and OWU has a good chance to be 2-0
They play Wabash in Week 2 in-between their OOC games.  But they should be 2-0 v. these OOC opponents.

RETURNING STARTERS  O-56  D-7
The biggest challenge for OWU early on will be replacing a good number of offensive starters.  One of the two QBs returns (Buza  5th year).  One RB also returns (Haley). Only one WR is back ( Hurst All-NCAC in each of his first two years).   Two O-lineman are  back (Ditchler All-NCAC,  Bricker). The K (Putt) returns.  From the D-line two return (Yanka All-NCAC, Burton) Behind them are 5 experienced players. Two of them are at LB (Ramey,  Anderson All-NCAC).  The DBs are solid (Costa, Smothers, and Stoner), 

OUTLOOK:  The defense needs to be stout  early on for the Battling Bishops to get a positive start.  They are capable of upsetting one or more of the top 4, and even one victory there would propel them into the top tier of the NCAC.. 

[sigma one]

#6  WOOSTER
 
With so many starters returning on offense, it might seem like the Fighting Scots are poised to make a run at the top half of the conference.  And maybe they will.  A look at last year confirms that the offense will be difficult to stop.  It averaged 34 pts/game in 2023.  On the other hand, the defense gave up 35pts/game.  In their 6 losses in 2023 they were gashed for 63, 49, 45, 53, 35, and 52 points So, it's obvious where the greatest improvement has to occur.  If this happens, WOO will be more of a contender than the coaches' poll indicates.

OOC:  1st Wilmington (3-7 in 2023).  The Quakers put 63 on the board v. WOO a year ago.  This will have to change for the Fighting Scots to get off to a good start.  2nd  Olivet (4-6 last year)  The potent WOO offense will put up points; again, look to the defense to say what kind of year WOO could have.

RETURNING STARTERS  O-11   D-6
So, every offensive starter is back.  Additionally, a WR/Ret Sp (Warstler All-NCAC returner, who ran back a KO for TD v. Wabash and averaged 14 yds a punt return) rejoins the team after playing only basketball last year.  The QB (Lee) had a productive year before being injured late in the season.  The top 2 RBs (Mims, Perkins) and the 3 starting WRs (Gadler, All-NCAC at both WR and Ret/Sp, Journall, who also starts as a DB, Hammer) give WOO a strong nucleus on O.  Add to them, the starting TE is back for a 5th year (Balassey).  The entire returning veteran offensive line will operate in front of them (Robinson, Ellsworth, Johnston, Pugh, and 5th year Kamphries, All-NCAC).  The P (Fischer) is there as well.
On the defensive side, there are holes to fill along the DL and at LB.  One D-lineman (Clayton) and one LB (Hudson) return. Three DBs are in place (Journall  All-NCAC, Lindsay, Sivon). 
OUTLOOK:  Other teams will have difficulty handling the WOO attack.  The biggest ? is how will they stop other offensives to give the O a chance to improve on last year's impressive performance.

[Olivet Alum 17]

#5 OHIO WESLEYAN

OWU has not yet posted a 2024 roster, so I am going by what I can pull up front last year.  They are almost always competitive with the top group of the conference, not winning many lately but always a test.
Particularly on Defense, they can prove difficult.

OOC:  #1  Otterbein (0-10 in 2023) OWU should start 1-0 unless OTT is markedly improved.  #2 Franklin
(4-6 last year)  The Grizzlies have not been as competitive lately, and OWU has a good chance to be 2-0
They play Wabash in Week 2 in-between their OOC games.  But they should be 2-0 v. these OOC opponents.

RETURNING STARTERS  O-5  D-
The biggest challenge for OWU early on will be replacing a good number of offensive starters.  Both QBs who played most of the last two years are gone.  Their top RB returns (Haley).  As do two WRs (Webb, Hurst All-NCAC in each of his first two years).   Two O-lineman are  back (Ditchler All-NCAC,  Bricker). The K (Putt) returns.  From the D-line only two return (Yanka All-NCAC, Burton) Behind  them are 7 experienced players. Three of them are at LB (Ramey, Yarbrough All_NCAC, Anderson All-NCAC).  The four DBs are solid (Costa, Thornton All-NCAC, Smothers, and Stoner),  The OWU secondary is perennially one of their strong points.

OUTLOOK:  The defensive needs to be stout  early on for the Battling Bishops to get a positive start.  They are capable of upsetting one or more of the top 4 teams, and even one victory there would propel them into the top tier of the NCAC.. 

Ohio Wesleyan put out a roster today. No Tyler Webb, Yarbrough or Thornton. Buza is back for a 5th year at QB.

[Olivet Alum 17]

#4 DENISON

The BIG RED may be the toughest of the Top 4 to rank effectively.  This is so due to the return of Trey Fabrocini RB, for a 5th year.  In 2022 and 2024, he rushed for a total of 2703 yds and 39 TDs.  He also caught 46 passes for another 307 yds. and 3 more TDs.  He obviously makes Denison a bigger threat than  they would have been.  (I am unsure whether the conference coaches knew of his return when ranking the teams.)

OOC  Denison has by far the toughest OOC schedule in the NCAC.  #1 Linfield (9-1 in 2023; #23 in the D3FB pre-season poll),  DEN travels 2500+ miles to Oregon to take on the Wildcats.  At home last year, they played Linfield tough before losing 28-14.  #2 Alma (12-1 in 2023, with a playoff win at Mt Union; #7 in the D3FB poll).  They could very well be 0-2 when conference play begins and go on to challenge for the title.

RETURNING STARTERES  O-6  D-7  DEN will search for a new QB.  But Coach Hatem usually has one ready.  On O, in addition to Fabrocini, 3 WRs are back (Guzzo All-NCAC, Alerson, Brownlee).  The O-lie  needs to replace 3 outstanding players.  Two return (Gause, Schneider).  The K (Cunnigham) has been a consistent weapon.  On D, the biggest losses are up front; one starter returns (Ballenger All-NCAC). Six of the back 7 are in place.  AT LB three return (Ressor, Hallenback, Moore All-NCAC)  Three DBs are also back (Epps All--NCAC at DB and RetSp, Larviere, and Murphy All-NCAC)
OUTLOOK:  After their two OOC challenges, they will be relieved to get to conference play.  Along with WAB and WIT, they will compete for 2nd place in what promises to be exciting games.   





















     

Moore did not come back for another year.