FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[smedindy]

Alright, I'll bite:

1. Wabash
2. Wittenberg
3. OWU
4. Allegheny
5. Wooster
6. Denison
7. Kenyon
8. Oberlin
9. Earlham
10. Hiram

It will be competitive. I can see 3-6 all at 4-3, and Kenyon at 3-4. Oberlin will be better, even though I see them at 2-5.

[seinfeld]

Are we predicting the order that we think the coaches/media are going to pick, or the order we think the teams are going to finish this year?

[wally_wabash]

This is what my crystal ball says:

1) Wabash (10-0, 7-0) - The schedule sets up nicely with the only big road test at Witt (which I'm predicting will be the de facto championship game as you'll see below).  With the other key conference games at home, I think Wabash is in the driver's seat.  

2) Witt (7-3, 6-1) - Murray can carry Witt past Allegheny and OWU, but the inexperience at qb will bite them against the top tier competition they will see this year.  

3) Allegheny (7-3, 5-2) - Don't be fooled by last year's record, this was a pretty good team.  They can't get that unlucky two years in a row can they?

4) OWU (7-3, 4-3) - A promising start for OWU probably gets a wake up call when the Bishops travel to C'ville.  I tossed up the game vs. Allegheny and decided to give it to the Gators based on the home turf advantage.  Once again, we'll leave this season wondering what could have been if OWU had an offense.  

5) Earlham (6-4, 4-3) - No misprint here...Rummell makes Earlham a 6-win team.  It's that simple.  This will be best demonstrated when Rummell leads the Quakers to an unexpected victory at Kenyon later this season.  

6) Wooster (5-5, 3-4) - Before everybody jumps on me, this is not an order of which team is better than the other, it's a list of how I think the conference standings will read at the end of the season.  Wooster is better than Earlham, but unfortunately for the Scots, Earlham has an easier schedule.  I think the conference opener vs. Witt will make or break Wooster's season.  

7) Kenyon (5-5, 3-4) - Sorry Lords fans.  We all want to ride the feel-good wave right on through to this year, but the reality is that teams that make a big jump in the standings from near the cellar to near the top rarely have staying power in the NCAC.  Kenyon is a serious game this year and they'll get the best from Allegheny and Wooster for sure.  Couple the removal of the surprise factor with their month-long globe trot to start the season, and I think Kenyon slips back a couple steps from '05.

8 ) Oberlin (2-8, 2-5) - I'd love to give the Yeomen some more wins here, but I just don't see where.  I can see Oberlin losing close games Kenyon and Earlham this year, which is the difference between being above .500 and not.  

9) Denison (3-7, 1-6) - Here again, I want to give Denison more wins, but they just aren't there.  Kenyon is a better team, Rummell makes Earlham a better team, Oberlin has a slight edge...the Big Red are getting close, but aren't there yet.  

10) Hiram (0-10, 0-7) - I look up and down the schedule and I don't see any wins.  Last year's lone win came over Earlham (sans Rummell) by a score of 7-2.  With Rummell back, you can forget that result.  Hiram is getting a little older and a little better, but they've still got a ways to go.  

With the exception of Hiram, the bottom half of the conference has gotten much better.  Even though I see a couple of them having poor records this year, I think they will be reasonably competitive with one another.  Denison could go 4-3 here as easily as they go 1-6.  

[wally_wabash]

seinfeld...that's the trick.  I like to pick the order of how I think the teams will finish.  Others like to think of this as more of a power ranking sort of deal.  Either way is fine...it's an opinion poll. 

[wabco]

Beginning and end of season:
Wabash
Witt
Gheny
OWU
Woo
the rest is a scramble

Look for Wabash to blast Franklin, Millikan a good test, then in should be in gear with kinks out for rest of season. 

D in essentially all positions will lead.  Huff at QB should be fine (if Huff stumbles ... 'Bash could have a hick-up).  RB position will be filled either from moving existing talent from other position or by freshman phenom ... practice and first 2 games will get this in good shape.  Best receiving corps in league (come on Huff).  Kicking game will settle down and improve (both punts and fg/extra points).  O line just fine  ... essentially solid and experienced.   Play calling ... same type balance 50% run/pass with perhaps a little bend toward pass.  Running could be a little more smash mouth ... depending on D of team being faced and taking advantage of experienced O line. 

[kcreds]

1. OWU (9-1) Yes I am bias, but I truly believe the pieces are all there for the title run.
2. Wabash (9-1) Love to see them hic-up several times.
3. Wooster (6-4) Schedule looks good for them and they will be better than last year.
4. Wittenberg (5-5) Tough schedule and not quite as good as last year.
5. Allegheny (5-5) They will avenge some of last years losses, I just hope it isn't OWU.
6. Kenyon (5-5) They won't surprise anyone this year and their schedule looks good.
7. Denison (4-6) The league will be very competitive even though they will be better.
8. Oberlin (3-7) A long way to go.
9. Earlham (3-7) Will be in a battle for the last 3 spots.
10. Hiram (0-10) Sorry, I would like to see them win an out of conference game.

[wabco]

kcreds

You are "ax grinding" ole Wabash.  All other comments in your post were positive except for your personally stated desire to see Wabash "hic-up several times".

Why the prejudice?   I may be wrong but I do not recall personal attacks against OWU by Little Giants ... perhaps some criticism of the O scheme (that is not personal) but not just out and out ... "I hope you do poorly".  AX ... AX ... Ax.  Expect that from a Witt but not OWU.

[wally_wabash]

I guess I read that differently than you did wabco...I think he was just playing off your post and the "if" question at qb.  I read kcreds post to mean the more Wabash sputters, the easier it is for OWU (or anybody else for that matter) to win the NCAC.  I don't think it's particularly crummy to want your top competition for a championship to lose a few games here and there...if they don't, you can't win.  It's part of the deal when you're the defending champs and I don't think kcreds has anything personal against the Bashers here. 

[wabco]

I know ... just "working" kreds a little.

I see OWU as a good tough competitor ... hard hitting D.  Held back a little by the O scheme but working at it. Good people.  I just believe Witt and Gheny will be a little more powerful / successful this coming fall than OWU. 

And:  Huff will not hic-up.  He has waited too long and endured too much.  It will be HUFFTIME 

[herald79]

     

     Ncac Fans:

     Write this down, Kenyon did not sneak up on people, coaches receive game tapes every week! The problem for the NCAC defenses, is Raphael Sanchez, he is special.  And the average kid playing D in the conference can't stop him in space. Nothing will change this year, because unlike last, he will have a healthy group of wideouts to throw to. Until you see him in person you can't really coment on the Lords. So you big five guys, take notice Kenyon is here to stay, it will be tough to come in second again, but don't expect a slide. I understand your disbelief, there program in the last ten years has been truly bad, but coach stanley gets it,and finally has the support of the college.

[scotty]

herald79, really...Go Lords...

[wally_wabash]

In the six seasons prior to 2005, Kenyon won exactly 6 football games.  So yes, what they did last year did catch people off guard. 

Every year one of the bottom five teams in the conference has a surprisingly good season.  Kenyon did it last year, Denison in '04, Oberlin in '03, and so on.  What hasn't happened yet is for any of those teams to back up one good NCAC season with a second in a row.  You have to believe that a big part of that is because in the "prove it" year, if you will, teams take you a little more seriously.

I'm not saying that Kenyon can't do it.  I hope they do.  I'm just not betting on it.  Coach Stanley has things moving in the right direction, no doubt, but let's have Kenyon string together a couple of winning seasons in a row before we get too crazy about catapulting Kenyon football into the upper echelon here. 

Further, not all 6-1 records are created equally...Kenyon won't get full credit until they are playing everybody in the top half of the conference.  Normally I wouldn't hold a conference schedule against a team, but in this case Kenyon isn't playing Wittenberg or Wabash by their own doing so it is a little different. 

[medicine man]

I will believe Kenyon is good when the "strength schedule" is gone. 
"Support of the college" means allowing lower test scores. ( This is a fact).  "Some" NCAC schools still stick to their academic standards.

[ADL70]

Correct me if I'm wrong but it was only 1 year Kenyon chose not to play the conference schedule made out by the league.  The current schedule is as scheduled by the conference.  Unless there was some agreement I'm not aware of, it's based on standings from the previous schedule.  But then I may not be aware of how the "year off" was treated.

As far as Sanchez goes, against CWRU he was 13-34-1  82 yards.  And I don't think anyone would compare CWRU to the A&Ws.  No doubt he would be better with better support, but that is yet to be seen.

[wally_wabash]

I don't think I'm taking a huge logical leap by assuming that Kenyon's schedule being devoid of Witt and Wabash is related to their '03 sabbatical.  That move pretty much assured them of getting the lowest power ranking if/when they returned to NCAC play.