FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[smedindy]

Going to be a monster year. I have two calls this morning but will find time to get my comprehensive prediction in during the installation of new carpeting upstairs. Yee-haw.

[Ryan Tipps]

How does this play out? Haha, yes I'm bored!

The NCAC has a seven-step set of criteria for determining the AQ when there is a tie, whether it's a 2-way tie, a 3-way or more. Those seven steps are kept under wraps until they actually need to be employed. If the "Rose Bowl Rule" were among those, it would be pretty far down on the criteria list -- probably even last. Since that "rule" would immediately and definitively break the tie by determining who hasn't received the AQ for the longer time, there wouldn't be the need to have any criteria after it.

But you asked how it would play out? Hopefully it would play out with one Pool A bid and two Pool Cs!!

[wally_wabash]

Here I go...my prediction for how the NCAC plays out this fall:

Wabash (7-0, 10-0) - Shocking, I know.  I believe pretty strongly that Witt and Woo are both better than they were a year ago and getting the fifth straight conference title will be far from easy.  I don't think enough attention was paid to the effect of a coaching change last season (easy to overlook when the wins keep coming, but Wabash wasn't as sharp as they could have been).  Now in year 2, I think you'll see a lot of improvement on both sides of the ball for Wabash, in spite of the key losses (really across the DL...experience returns everywhere else). 

Witt (6-1, 9-1) - I hope everybody got their licks in last year on the wounded Tigers...I have a feeling that Witt is coming back in a big way in 2009.  Very fine defense, returning senior QB...if Witt's guys are healthy, they're very, very good.  Could be a classic in C'ville on 10/17. 

Wooster (5-2, 7-3) - Is it possible that Wooster could be a better team in 2009 and win fewer games than they did in 2008?  Yep.  Wooster was overmatched in their two losses last year and despite all the positive vibes coming from the Papp right now, Wooster's personnel is the same personnel that got steamrolled by CWRU and Wabash last year (and those teams aren't terribly different from their 2008 versions either).  Add on that Wittenberg had a throwaway year last year and three losses is very possible for Wooster.  I'll not be surprised at all if the Woo/Witt game in week 11 has serious playoff implications in some fashion...be it Pool A or Pool C. 

Allegheny (4-3, 6-4) - Which three conference games do I have the Gators losing?  You know which three.  I can't make a good case for the other four on AC's schedule to beat the Gators.  I'm also giving the Gators home wins against Juniata and Westminster.  The main point as we get to the fourth spot here is that I believe there's a pretty steep drop off between #3 and #4 this year. 

OWU (4-3, 4-6) - It might be little solace for you, aueagle, but I'm giving your Bishops a four-win conference season.  OWU benefits here from not having Wabash on the schedule, but unless things are way, way worse than I think they are in Delaware, 4-3 in the league is very reasonable. 

Denison (3-4, 5-5) - Until I broke down the schedule I would have thought Denison was a four win team, but they don't have Oberlin or OWU which makes their NCAC schedule a little tougher.  If Barnes had another year, they could probably get Allegheny and get that fourth win...but alas they do not. 

Hiram (3-4, 4-6) - That's right...I'm on the Terrier train.  They've got good numbers, a ton of returning players, and I think the concentrated effort to get out of Ohio for players is about to start paying off. 

Kenyon (1-6, 1-9) - The common bond shared by the last three teams on my list here is numbers.  These teams just don't have the roster numbers to get over the hump.  I don't have much to say about Kenyon...glad I'll finally get a chance to see them play after 10 years of following the league. 

Earlham (1-6, 1-9) - The Quake made a nice turnaround last year and finished strong, but I'm still down on the EC.  Very low numbers again, and now they've got to replace a QB and a RB.  Owens is good, but who is getting him the ball? 

Oberlin (1-6, 1-9) - The Yeomen have graduated and all time QB and an all time RB and when your roster isn't very deep, replacing talents like Mangan and Carroll is very difficult.  I'm looking at a long year for the Yeomen as they try to find new pieces to the puzzle. 


And there it is.  I think the round robin between the W's is going to be thrilling...all of those games should be exciting.  I also think that the schedules have set up such that we could definitely have two bids this year as long as our league runner up doesn't slip in the non-conference schedule.  Looking forward to an exciting year here. 

[aueagle]

Thanks wally....but, I think you may be to generous....
I am counting on wins over Hiram & Earlham only......
The schedule is not in the Bishops favor.......

[Duster72]

Here I go...my prediction for how the NCAC plays out this fall:

I'm no expert, but your analysis pretty much sums up my expectations exactly, assuming no terrible injury situations.

One area that I think is being overlooked is the Wabash O-Line.  In the games that the LG's looked bad, the o-line was a big part of the problem and looked terribly overmatched. 

To me, the LG's skill positions are pretty solid.  The line on both sides of the ball will make or break this team.  You have to be able to control the line of scrimmage or you're in for a long/disappointing season (see: Colts, 2008).

[luvncac]

Aueagle,

Only managed about 45 minutes at OWU's scrimmage; the cold rainy weather was too much for my old bones, but I did see several promising offensive series against an Ohio Dominican team that had better size and speed at every position.  I almost fainted when I saw OWU's QB line up under center and throw a cross pattern to the TE for a TD....go figure that one out but I hope this is a sign that they plan to open it up some.  I heard several fathers saying the QB was a Frosh so keep your fingers crossed that this is the first of many for him.

[aueagle]

Thanks for the update luvncac......Soph QB Keegan Varner from Westerville Central should get the nod this year...He got snaps last year....I hope you saw a freshman at QB...we need another good one like Fisher was....The Bishops O-line should be solid...they have experience, but, need to stay healthy. Depth could be a problem.
GO BISHOPS

[D3_DPUFan]

With thanks to the SCAC and its nicely done Media Days, below is a link to the interview with DePauw's Interim Head Coach Robby Long. Might give you a glimpse into his mindset and the expectations he has in his new role. I for one think he will do a tremendous job and would hope that if he wants it (which I think he does) that he would get the job. For you Wabash guys who are following this, toward the end of the interview he gives his take on the Monon Bell classic...   

http://static.psbin.com/i/r/0xvfyoxazutsb1/RobbyLong-DU.mp3

[ADL70]

aueagle and luvncac

You can read about the freshman QB in Kickoff.

[smedindy]

Why not?

Wabash 7-0
Wooster 6-1
Witt 5-2
Gheny 4-3
Denison 3-4
Hiram 3-4
OWU 3-4
Kenyon 2-5
Earlham 2-5
Oberlin 0-7

[BashBacker#16]

Duster72,

I agree that the Wabash O & D lines will be key to this season.  I also agree that they played poorly vs. DPU and struggled against Wheaton in the playoffs.  BUT, I think this O-line could be (COULD) one of the best we have ever had.  J-Mo returning for his 5th season is large (no pun intended), Tokar next to him for a 3rd straight season...Craig Morrison at Guard and Evan Isaacs at the other tackle.  If Isaacs can stay healthy, he may be our best.  The key is the Center position.

On the D side, I really think that Matt Whyde will have a huge year.  He was overshadowed last year with the 3 seniors but he reminds me of Woo's good ends a few years ago...Watson and the other guy (can't recall his name off hand).  Watch for instant impact from Erik Hackett on the D front - 6'2 320 (massive), I have also mentioned Kolisek, Brock, Tichenor, and Ramsey.  All of these guys are very talented and have waited for the opportunity to step up and make plays.  I think they will gel nicely and be very solid in front of an excellent group of under-hyped LB's.

Just my 2 cents...

BB16

[zed07]

What are you hearing on the Center front?  Is it still a mosh pit of possibilities?

[Bash-Dad #84]

Yep...

[zed07]

Unfortunately that's what I'm hearing as well, but unlike yours, my source is on defense.  Maybe some resolution after Saturday's scrimmage. 

[wally_wabash]

Center by committee!