FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[smedindy]

I'll bite:

1. Witt
2. Wabash (sigh...picking with my head, not heart)
3. Gheny
4. Wooster
5. Denison
6. OWU
7. Kenyon
8. Oberlin
9. Hiram

[wally_wabash]

Here I go...my preseason rankings with predicted league records sure to be completely wrong. 

1. Wabash (6-0) - I think it's pretty clear that there is a two-team race for the league title this year and that it will be decided in Springfield on November 6.  Obviously, I'm going to pick Wabash, but the reality here is these Witt/Wabash games have been agonizingly close for most of the last decade.  I don't see any reason to think that we won't get another epic game this year. 

2. Witt (5-1) - Breaking in a new QB?  It's a whole lot easier when nobody in the league can score against your D.  The Tigers will have that advantage this fall. 

3. Allegheny (4-2) - Not quite at the same level as the two teams above them on my list, but pretty clearly better than those below them. 

4. Wooster (4-2) - I'm pretty down on Wooster this year, but I have them ending up with just the two conference losses.  They don't play Allegheny, so they avoid a third loss there.  Wooster also has four of their six league games at home, so there's that. 

5. OWU (3-3) - OWU plays the top three on my list and the bottom three.  They don't get Wooster or Denison in league play, which I think are critical games to measure noticeable improvement from the Bishops. 

6. Denison (3-3) - Could get to 4-2 if they can get over on the Scots, but I'm not counting on it.  They could also fall to 1 or 2 wins if they don't take their games with Obe/Hir/Ken seriously. 

7. Oberlin (1-5) - I have Oberlin beating Hiram for their lone win....but watch out here; Oberlin has a week off to get ready for Wooster on 9/18.  Wooster will be coming off back-to-back roadies against B-W and Wabash.  Oberlin suffers with depth as the season gets deeper...with just one game under them and a bye week to prepare, the Yeoman should be at full strength and they've been a pretty decent team when healthy in recent seasons (let us not forget the scare they put into W&J a couple of years ago).  This is a game that could completely change the trajectory of the seasons for these teams. 

8. Hiram (1-5) - New coach?  I'll buy regime change for a league win.  Is this finally the move that gets the program going?  We shall see. 

9. Kenyon (0-6) - Tough draw for the Lords...four of their league games are on the road.  Harry is gone.  Toot is gone.  Could be a really long fall for the Lords. 

[wally world]

Sad story about a incoming frosh at Wabash from Andrean HS in Merrillville. Hope he gets better soon.

http://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/porter/portage/article_1544e2e1-b07b-5a7a-86dd-96fb39e5467f.html

[short]

1) Wittenberg- I think that this is how the Coaches will vote not necessarily were they will end up.  Witt has only a few question marks but QB is one of them.  I too expect a war November 6.

2) Wabash- I have said before it's more like 1 and 1a when you look at these two teams.   Wabash returns a few less starters than Witt that why I gave Witt the edge in the Pre-season. However, the game will be played November 6 so there is plenty of time to brake those 1st year starters in.  There is no better One Two punch in D3 football than Chamblee and LeMond making it easier for a new QB to settle in.

3) Allegany- I love their Defensive 3-4 multiple front and they return some very good players. In the secondary they return one of the most under rated players in Facaros at Safety. I believe he has All-American type talent.  If they can buy Salopek time and find some WR's they will be head and Shoulders better than the rest of the NCAC (other than Wabash/witt).

4) Wooster- I put Wooster he mostly by default.  While I think Allegany has a very good team returning and Wabash and Witt are both top 25 type teams the middle of the NCAC is just flat out down this year.  With that said I think the Bottom of the NCAC is a little up this year.  I have no reason to believe Wooster will not be the 4th place team but also could see them losing to any of the teams ranked below them.   I think both Denison and OWU have great chances to knock of Wooster in 2010.  I guess I put Wooster here over the other two because of what Coach Schmitz and staff has been able to do over the years.

5) OWU- I see them as very talented team that COULD be 8-2 or 2-8.  They were very athletic and fast in 2009 and they have the ability to cause teams problems.  I can not put my finger on way this team doesn't win more games.  

6) Denison- Let a new area begin.  Coach Hatem has turned a number of high school programs around and now he will work on turning the BIG RED back into a top team in the NCAC.  Hatem's defense have been a very hardnosed groups over the last 3 seasons and I think that will be what you see this year for Denison, A HARD NOSE TEAM.  They are not going to be as talented as any of the teams above them this season.  However, they will be coach well and play hard.  Coach Hatem like Coach Piper could get Denison back in the top half of the NCAC on a year in year out basis.

7) Hiram-  More #'s and more talent than the other two programs.  Coach Moore will work out some of the problems and I think we will see a much better team in 2010 than we have seen over the past decade.

8) Oberlin- A more complete team and always very well coached

9) Kenyon- Defense anyone?


I really do think that teams 6-9 are better than most years in the NCAC but team 4 and 5 are down.

[wally_wabash]

Sad story about a incoming frosh at Wabash from Andrean HS in Merrillville. Hope he gets better soon.

http://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/porter/portage/article_1544e2e1-b07b-5a7a-86dd-96fb39e5467f.html

Just senseless.  I hope Mike can recover very soon.  I hope the assailant is forced to face the music. 

5) OWU- I see them as very talented team that COULD be 8-2 or 2-8.  They were very athletic and fast in 2009 and they have the ability to cause teams problems.  I can not put my finger on way this team doesn't win more games. 

I can...they don't score enough points.  OWU scoring offense national ranks over the last handful of years:
2009 - 206 (16.4 ppg)
2008 - 231 (10.4 ppg)
2007 - 168 (19.3 ppg)
2006 - 48 (27.7 ppg...despite having decent scoring number, the Bishops wound up 3-7 this season because their defense gave up a ton of points)
2005 - 117 (23.6 ppg)
2004 - 123 (22.7 ppg)

If I get enough free time to do this, I might run the numbers and figure out where the average conference champ/playoff team sits in the "scoring offense" category...my guess is that you don't find many playoff teams that are consistently in the bottom half of D-III in this category. 

[short]

Wally,

I guess what I was saying was WHY are they so bad?  They have good players, right?  Their football team is full of All-NCAC track stars.  I understand that it is different sports but how can you have that many fast guys that are just bad football players?

[oldtiger]

Wally,

how can you have that many fast guys that are just bad football players?

The 5-10 ounces/foot added by football cleats can become very significant when combined with the potential of being knocked out of them.

[wally_wabash]

Wally,

I guess what I was saying was WHY are they so bad?  They have good players, right?  Their football team is full of All-NCAC track stars.  I understand that it is different sports but how can you have that many fast guys that are just bad football players?

I think OWU's problem is scheme.  The last time OWU was really relevant, they had a stud RB (Capone) and a bunch of studs on their OL.  If you're going to run that offense, that's what you have to have.  They did, and they ran all over people.  In the decade since OWU's last really good season, they just haven't had players that are quite that good.  So OWU has made some tweaks to the offense...they're running it out of the shotgun now...they're throwing a little more...etc. etc.   In deploying these tweaks, I think all they've really done is muddle the identity of the offense such that nobody really knows what it's supposed to be anymore and you wind up with a unit that has a hard time stringing together first downs and scoring points.  Also, when you're running this kind of tweener offense, I would have to believe that it's difficult to recruit specialized skill players to your team.  If I'm a highly regarded high school QB (a passing QB, mind you), why would I go to OWU to run option 70% of the time?  Same thing goes for receivers.  I think OWU winds up with a lot of good athletes that don't necessarily have the specialized skill sets that teams with more defined offenses have.  If OWU isn't going to mold their offense to their personnel, then they need to recruit personnel that fits their offense.  A good starting point would be committing to one style or another. 

I think the game has gotten more sophisticated than just trying to recruit good athletes and expecting to be successful.  Even here in D-III, you've got to have specialists on the team.  Kids that have been learning to play WR or QB or LB since high school.  It's increasingly difficult to just recruit "athletes" and teach them to play when they get to college.  I'm sure we've all seen players come through the programs that we follow who fit this mold: they come in as freshmen, there's a ton of hype about what a sick athlete this kid is...and then he turns out to be a pretty average football player despite obviously being a great athlete.  There's a gap to be bridged between having the physical gifts of size, strength, and speed and being a good football player. 

[Raider 68]

Wally,

If you conducted a poll for your pre-season picks it may give you a quick indication of who is #1 and #2 by the numbers, just a thought..........


+k for you!!

[wally_wabash]

Ask and you shall recieve.   

[Duster72]

I am certainly rooting for Wabash, but I don't see how you can look past the questions about the offensive line and uncertainty at quarterback.  I really hope Miracle or Belton turn out to be fantastic, but I don't get the impression that the battle for that position is near over.  Add to that major questions on the O-line, and I can't see putting them over Witt.  I think the line will be good enough to fend off most of the schools on the schedule, but Witt and DePauw make me very concerned.

But, they've got some time to come together, improve, and make it happen.  I certainly hope that they do and make me look foolish.  But I'm predicting 8-2 this year -- and much better next year.  Much, much better.

[BashDad]

I really hope Miracle or Belton turn out to be fantastic, but I don't get the impression that the battle for that position is near over. 

Blasphemy!

[wally_wabash]

But I'm predicting 8-2 this year...

I'm not going to quibble with anybody who wants to say Wabash is an underdog at Witt this year (but do remember that there's two months worth of games to see how those two teams have addressed their graduation losses), but Duster....buddy....you're saying 8-2?  Please tell me that #2 is Wooster...or Allegheny...hell, even Chicago.  You can't possibly be sitting here in July and predicting a Wabash loss to...geebus I can't even type it. 

To borrow from the great Walter Sobchak...you have got to buck up, man.  You can not drag this negative energy into the season! 

[Raider 68]

Wally,

So far your poll is about even Witt vs. Wabash, the poll probably reflects how close the two teams may be and it all comes down to the Nov. 6th game!

[bashbrother]

I believe at this point in the Summer and with what both teams lost on paper to graduation, Wabash is the underdog right now.   As we all know, by the time Nov. 6 rolls around many things can happen

I believe that Wabash was somewhat the underdog going into last year's game as well  (with Hudson out) and came very close to beating a Witt team that was  beginning to click.  Blown kick coverage or an awesome kick return or both, decided the game for the most part.

Bottom line, history tells us that it will probably be decided by 7 pts or less.  A mistake or great play  here or there can decide it.

Should be an interesting last two weeks of the regular season as Wabash has it's two biggest rivalries in back to back weeks.