FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[Mr. Ypsi]

Apologies if this has already been covered.

IF Wooster were to shock the world this coming Saturday, who wins the AQ?

[bashbrother]

Apologies if this has already been covered.

IF Wooster were to shock the world this coming Saturday, who wins the AQ?

Wooster would go I believe because of the head-to-head result, and each team having one conference loss.

[Mr. Ypsi]

Apologies if this has already been covered.

IF Wooster were to shock the world this coming Saturday, who wins the AQ?

Wooster would go I believe because of the head-to-head result, and each team having one conference loss.

But it would be a THREE-way tie - are you so depressed you've forgotten that Wabash would also have only one conference loss?!

[wally_wabash]

Apologies if this has already been covered.

IF Wooster were to shock the world this coming Saturday, who wins the AQ?

Wooster would go I believe because of the head-to-head result, and each team having one conference loss.

Here we go...the following is the last known set of NCAC tiebreak rules.  They may have changed since, they may not have...but this is what we have to work from right now. 

Here you go in case the link doesn't work.....I suggest a little Maalox and 2 Tylenol before reading this....

• "1. Head-to-Head result(s) between tied teams."

• "2. Result(s) versus individual opponents examined in descending order, individually, until tie is broken. The tied teams must have a common opponent in order for the result to be considered; if not a common opponent, move to the next team in the standings. The first team to have beaten a higher-ranked team that is a common opponent wins the tiebreaker.

"If the tie is not broken in the descending order review, start from the bottom of the standings and examine opponents in ascending order. The first team to have lost to a lower-ranked team loses the tiebreaker (no common opponent provision in ascending review)."

• "3. The team with the fewest losses in conference away games."

• "4. The team with the higher preseason power ranking used to determine conference schedule. This provision would not apply if a tiebreaker had been used to separate the teams in final power ranking."

"5. The team with the longest active winning streak in conference play at the end of the season."

"6. The team that has not participated in the NCAA playoffs for the longest period of years ("Rose Bowl rule")."

"7. Coin Toss. When three or more teams are tied, the same procedure shall be followed until one team is eliminated. The process shall then be repeated until one team emerges.

So let's do this.  For the sake of the exercise, assume Wooster beats Wittenberg Satruday which leaves Witt, Woo, and Wabash with matching 5-1 league records:

Step 1 - h2h's between the tied teams are a wash
Step 2 - Each team only lost to each other, so any other common league opponent would have been beaten by all three teams.  This obviously works in either ascending or descending order of the standings.  We move on. 
Step 3 - Each team's loss is on the road.  We push again.
Step 4 - We have a tiebreak.  Last year we found out when investigating the possible Wabash/Witt/Allegheny tiebreak, that you had to go all the way back to 2003-2004 to find the power ranking used for last year's schedule.  Which is still completely ridiculous and makes my eye twitch.  We started a new schedule cycle this year, so it stands to reason that the power ranking used to determine this schedule cycle also moved on by two years...presumably based on the results from 2005-2006.  Records from that time period are:
Wabash: 13-1
Witt: 11-3
Wooster: 8-6

And there you have it.  IF Wooster wins on Saturday and IF these tiebreak criteria are still what directs the league to choose the automatic qualifier and IF my assumption about the power ranking is right, Wabash would be the NCAC representative in the tournament...based on W/L records that are five years old which is still completely out of whack, even if it plays to Wabash's favor this time around. 

[bashbrother]

Ypsi -

Yes, you are correct....  It was a blow.   This season has been full of them.

That all changes this weekend, with our victory in the Bell Game! 

Go Wabash!

[Mr. Ypsi]

wally, thanks for trying to help - apparently no one knows!

(I suppose some mole down at NCAC headquarters actually has the info, but is sworn to secrecy. )

Probably a moot question anyway (you'd probably have to spot me +21.5 to take Woo, and even then I'd be ambivalent), but I'd imagine the coaches would like to know by the end of next Saturday!

[wally_wabash]

I'm sure the actual scenarios for the potential tiebreak will surface sometime this week. 

Wittenberg is obviously going to be a heavy favorite next Saturday, but let's keep in mind Wittenberg's road results this year:
24-21 at Allegheny
27-21 at Oberlin
27-21 in OT at CMU

The Tigers have not been the same club away from Springfield. 

[aueagle]

Men of Wabash....You guys took it on the chin in Springfileld..
The Tigers are THE team in the NCAC this year & Fincham is the kind
of coach I'd like to see in Delaware....Grab The Bell and you still have a very,
very good season...and, yes, wally...I'd like OWU to be 7-2 at this point.

[formerd3db]

Interesting - DePauw beat DI Evansville in basketball in an exhibition game 10/31/10.

[BashBacker#16]

Back from Springfield with some thoughts:

- Witt is a very, very good team with a lot of stud seniors - McKinley, Vallery, Kattoua, McKee, Freeman, Guida, Weber, Kralich, etc.  19 Seniors - it was their year and they took it.
- Even though the stats are UGLY, the game was close and could have been a lot closer...  Bash didn't capitalize on some great opportunities:  Martin's 80-yard INT return = NO POINTS after missing a chip shot field goal was a killer early in the game.  When Bash cut it to 24-17 and then got the ball back - I felt the momentum totally flipped and it was about to get very interesting until Burke's tipped INT.  Then, after Witt gets a FG there, Bash fumbles the KO return - another mistake you just can't make in Springfield.
- I also didn't like the QB rotation.  I was really surprised we didn't settle on one of the guys and go.  I thought Burke showed a little more composure and was throwing a better ball for the most part.  
- let's not forget what ER has had to work with this year, even going back to last Spring with the death of big OL Josh Linthicum (would have been a sure starter) and Erik Hackett not returning to school.  These would have been 2 starters on the O-line - and likely 2 of our best.  Then, take Lemond ACL followed by Chamblee's ACL in consecutive weeks.  All that said and the fact we played for a league championship yesterday...says a lot about the quality of our program and the quality of our coach.  In fact, I think you could make a very strong case for ER being the coach of the year this year - certainly in the discussion given everything this team has had to endure.
- It sounds like Chamblee and CJ Gum will be returning for their 5th years (not official but sounds likely).  I'm also hopeful that Hackett will re-enroll 2nd semester - that makes things look very bright for Wabash football.

I also thought Coach Finchum showed a lot of class at the end of the game taking a knee as time expired.  Congrats to Witt - I do think they will be a very tough out in the playoffs (given they get by Woo next week.)

It's Bell week - GO BASH BEAT DePauw!!!

[BashBacker#16]

I wanted to make one more comment.  I have to agree on the 3-man drop 8 defense that we seem to run at the end of a half, on 3rd and long, etc.  I don't get it at all.  The Bash D is clearly at it's best when we bring heat and get after the QB.  When we are able to do that, the D looks entirely different.  Especially bringing Wood or CJ or Pannell or DJ...  I really hope we can pressure Engle this Saturday as that may be the key to the game - if he's pressured and running for his life (like Salopek (Gheny) did) - mistakes are likely to follow.

I like Wabash's chances A LOT this weekend given the circumstances...at home, spoil the Dannie's undefeated season, and coming off a big loss like Witt.

I'd be interested to hear Wally or BashBro's comparison of Witt and DePauw.  Personally, I think Witt is a much stronger team.  Thoughts?

[wabashcpa]

I thought the same thing about Witt taking a knee at the end - they had a chance to rub some salt in the wound and didn't - that was a classy and respectful move.

If our pass defense against DePauw resembles what we saw yesterday, Engle, Koors, et.al. will make us pay.  Hopefully dealing with Zoeller, McKee, Cooper, & Kralich will be good preparation for what's to come and what needs to improve on Saturday.  8-2 with Bell retention will sure beat the alternative and give something positive to build on for next year.

Hopefully ER will see enough on the Witt tape to make a decision on one QB, so that a rhythm can be established for the whole offense.

[Fat Frank]

Wally_Wabash, I agree and I think my point is better made with the adjective "predictable" rather than "passive". If the offense knows what you are doing on D they will eat you alive. So we have to disguise our defensive plans and learn how to play the chess game so as to put more pressure on the other teams offense , both mentally and physically. Certainly, if you show them the blitz and do blitz, they will check out and make you pay. I just am tired of us showing our hand most of the time on defense. You can beat inferior teams showing them what you are doing on D, but showing your hand to good teams like Witt, get you killed. Your other point is also very good in that what worked one week doesn't necessarily work the next week. That is why teams study film and why once again you have to learn how to disguise your plan of attack regardless of what the plan is......

That game is over. Let's not be predictable this Sat and lets keep the Bell! WAF

[wally_wabash]

I'd be interested to hear Wally or BashBro's comparison of Witt and DePauw.  Personally, I think Witt is a much stronger team.  Thoughts?

I think the two are pretty comparable, but Witt is probably a little better.  Certainly I think Wittenberg has a stronger defense than DePauw.  Offensively they are probably pretty close.  Engle/Koors is a similar situation to Zoeller/McKee.  Witt may be deeper at WR.  If Wabash plays a similar style of defense as they did against Witt, success or failure will be determined by how well DPU blocks.  As I mentioned, Wabash's defenses in recent years rely almost entirely on getting pressure on the QB with the down linemen.  If that group can't get to Engle, Koors will get open and we know how that works out.  Pressure, pressure, pressure.  That's a big key on Saturday. 

[DPU3619]

I'd be interested to hear Wally or BashBro's comparison of Witt and DePauw.  Personally, I think Witt is a much stronger team.  Thoughts?

I think the two are pretty comparable, but Witt is probably a little better.  Certainly I think Wittenberg has a stronger defense than DePauw.  Offensively they are probably pretty close. 

Agree.  I think DePauw probably is a little better than Wittenberg offensively, but Witt is leaps and bounds ahead of DePauw defensively.