FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

After thinking about it some more, I'm not sure there's really a clear way to break a three way tie.  I think a couple of options to break a three way tie that seem to be "fairer" than what we're doing now are:

- Use the NCAA SOS formula to determine who played the strongest schedule, and send that team.  I think the idea behind using the power ranking is that the higher the power ranking, the tougher the schedule you played.  Of course, the rankings are so out of date that that argument doesn't hold any weight.  Using the NCAA's SOS calculation keeps the spirit of the schedule involved, but makes it applicable to the current year.  Cons to this: games that factor into the OOWP third of the calculated number may decide a tournament qualifier.  Should the Kenyon vs. CWRU result break a tie between Wooster, Witt, and Wabash? 

- If we can't decide who should represent the league, maybe we should leave it to a third party and use the poll or regional ranking to make the choice.  Cons: impartiality may be an issue, in particular if you were to use regional rankings.  I don't think the d3football.com voters could care one way or another which NCAC team makes the tournament.  Some parties on the regional advisory committee might though. 

Just thinking out loud.  The Thunderdome might still be the best solution. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

I think Wooster needs to dip into the Boise State 2003-2005 Playbook and play a little non-conventional.   Kinda of like fighting the Chinese in a conventional war, it won't work.  Get creative, have some fun... Statue of Liberty play, fumblerusky etc.

I agree with this, and I've wondered why this doesn't happen more often in both football and basketball.

For instance, when a 16 seed plays a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.  They have nothing to lose, and they're probably never going to win by playing straight up...so why not do something crazy?  Run and gun, shoot a 3 on every possession, play full-court press, and run five fresh guys every 3-4 minutes?  What's the worst that happens - they lose by 40?  Wasn't that going to happen anyway?

Same train of thought with a huge underdog in football.  Do something crazy - throw something at the favorite that they don't expect.  Sure, maybe it will backfire, but you probably can't beat them straight up anyway!  Blitz every down, call trick plays, et cet/

I remember watching Princeton play UCLA in the 1996 NCAA tourney.  Once any of them took a shot, all their players would immediately run back on defense.  None of them went for an offensive board.  Coach Pete Carril gave up any offensive rebounds in return for denying hte UCLA fast break.  It worked, as they upset the defending national champs in the second round.

Great memory!  I saw that game too....Princeton won 43-41, I believe.  That's the sort of thing I'm talking about...when you're a HUGE underdog with nothing to lose, and no chance of winning conventionally, what's the harm in doing something totally UNconventional?

As a former offensive lineman, I'd say that the hardest defense to handle was a defense that constantly shifted pre-snap and never lined up the same way twice in a row.  If you're a huge underdog, and you're playing a team with a really good offense that you can't stop playing base defense, why not make your front seven a shifting amoeba with nobody in a three-point stance?  I saw a high-school team do this once and keep a VASTLY superior opponent close (they lost 13-0 because...well...they still couldn't score), but the defense certainly "worked" to some extent.  It's a pain in the butt for OL's to figure out who to block when the whole front seven is just walking around, faking at gaps, et cet...with nobody in a stance and no way to guess who's "coming" on a given play.  Plus, wouldn't your whole defensive front seven have a lot of fun throwing weird looks at the offense?

[bashbrother]

Tremendous weekly release this week from the Wabash SID Department.

As always, thanks for all the hard work, time and effort!

http://www.wabash.edu/sports/docs/footballstats/2010/2010MononBellGamenotes.pdf

[nike]

That is some release.
If Wooster can play the game of their life and win and you all uphold your end of the bargain, what a Saturday of football that would be.

[Ryder16]

here is an interesting tie breaker idea... how about +/- in games between the 3 teams in question ?

Wooster would be -4 (21-17 loss to wabash) with one game pending
wabash would be  -13   (21-17 win v. wooster) (34-17 loss to witt)
Wittenberg would be + 17 (34-17 win v. bash) with the one game pending

or look at record against common opponents outside the conference because we have more common opponents with the UAA/ NCAC  agreement
Woo/bash- lost to wash u
witt- beat wash u

just my 1   1/2 cents

even though i dont think it will matter

[ExTartanPlayer]

here is an interesting tie breaker idea... how about +/- in games between the 3 teams in question ?

This idea sounds good on paper - certainly it's much better than an overall margin-of-victory or total point differential, which would encourage powerhouses to score 70+ on Hiram, Kenyon, et cet.

A couple of years ago, I think in the ASC, a weird scenario unfolded where someone got jobbed out of a playoff berth in this type of tiebreaker because they defeated an opponent on the second possession in an overtime (and thus did not kick an extra point).  It was something like:

Team A 28, Team B 21
Team B 28, Team C 21
Team C 20, Team A 14 (won in OT, didn't kick extra point)

So Team C was eliminated from the tiebreaker because they had a -1 differential in this scenario; then they went to tiebreaker between A vs. B, and sent Team A because they had beaten Team B head-to-head (even though Team A lost to Team C).  Confused yet?

Wish I could remember the details.  Hopefully Pat or someone can chime in and fill in the blanks.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Found it.

2003 ASC race:  All three of the following teams finished 8-1 in conference.

Hardin-Simmons 20, East Texas Baptist 14 (OT - HSU won on second possession, so no PAT kicked)
Mary-Hardin Baylor 43, Hardin-Simmons 36
East Texas Baptist 28, Mary-Hardin Baylor 21 (OT - PAT kicked because ETBU had ball first)

East Texas Baptist won the tiebreaker and got the AQ by virtue of Hardin-Simmoins not kicking a PAT in a Week 5 overtime game - who'd have known that would matter?

The weirdest thing about this scenario was that MHB could have kicked a field goal against ETBU in overtime (intentionally losing the game, but winning the tiebreaker) and instead chose to play for the win.

[Frank Rossi]

We've got Regional Rankings... Final time for the season that we'll see them:

http://d3blogs.com/d3football/2010/11/10/ncaas-third-regional-rankings/

[wally_wabash]

Interesting stuff in the RRs.  Obviously would have expected Wabash to fall out, but they didn't.  Wabash is still way down in the Pool C pecking order in the North region, but a win over a conference champion and regional #3 DPU this weekend would probably bump the LGs up in front of IWU and B-W.  Wheaton and ONU seem like obvious choices at this point....an invitation is a long shot for sure, but who knows.  Week 11 chaos isn't out of the quesiton.  Let's play all the games and sort it out on Saturday night. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

I think you're right that they'd move up, Wally, but (as you said) that's probably not enough.  Here's a list of quality one-loss Pool C candidates:

West: Coe, Bethel, Pacific Lutheran, Redlands
North: Wheaton, Ohio Northern
South: Hardin-Simmons, Hampden-Sydney
East: the one-loss NJAC teams (there's a 3-way tie on top, all teams likely to finish 9-1)

We've seen a trend recently to favor 9-1 teams in Pool C.  All Pool C candidates I listed above are likely to be 9-1, and all are from strong enough conferences that they'd merit serious consideration (i.e. there's no NEFC runnerup listed there).

The hopes of all 8-2 Pool C hopefuls took a big hit when Washington & Lee beat Hampden-Syndey to claim the ODAC title), bumping a strong 9-1 HSC squad into Pool C (you guys have to root for Randolph-Macon to beat HSC, among other things, and even that has its downside because it makes Randy Mac a Pool C contender).

Barring upsets, there are likely to be about 10 strong one-loss Pool C candidates.  Just hard to imagine an 8-2 team getting a C bid this year, especially given that one loss is against a comparatively "weak" opponent in WashU (compared to Baldwin-Wallace or Illinois Wesleyan's losses).

No axe to grind here - just trying to give a realistic look at the situation.  I think Bash is about the 10th Pool C team.  Hard to see Bash getting in without help.  Nevertheless, good luck!!

[wally_wabash]

Wabash is certainly behind a lot of teams in the Pool C hunt.  By my count that list is: Wheaton, ONU, Hardin Simmons, Hampden Sydney, Coe, Bethel, Pacific Lutheran, Redlands, Rowan, Montclair St., and Cortland St.  That's 11 teams for 8 spots.  Wabash needs a win and a few of these teams to lose.  So here's your official Wabash rooting guide for Saturday:

- Wooster.  Obviously if Wooster wins, Wabash gets a share of the championship and a spot in the tournament.  

If the Wooster thing doesn't work out, Wabash probably needs, at a minimum, four of these teams to win:

Millikin over Wheaton
Heidelberg over ONU
Louisiana College over Hardin-Simmons
Randolph Macon over Hampden Sydney
Cornell over Coe
Augsburg over Bethel
Willamette over Pacific Lutheran
Chapman over Redlands
New Jersey over Rowan
William Patterson over Montclair State
Ithaca over Cortland State

In that group, it would seem that Willamette has a good chance to beat Pacific Lutheran.  Randolph Macon and Ithaca are capable teams in rivalry games so there is some possible help there.  Louisiana College is 6-1 in ASC play and may have something for Hardin-Simmons.  

Here's for mass hysteria on Saturday!  

[wally_wabash]

Barring upsets, there are likely to be about 10 strong one-loss Pool C candidates.  Just hard to imagine an 8-2 team getting a C bid this year, especially given that one loss is against a comparatively "weak" opponent in WashU (compared to Baldwin-Wallace or Illinois Wesleyan's losses).

WashU weak?  Washington is 7-2 and hasn't lost in two months.  The Bears aren't a bad team. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Kinda saw that coming - wally, I tried to use the "comparatively weak" to explain, but I guess that wasn't clear enough. (come on, wally, you know I'm a huge UAA homer! I'm not dissing the UAA...)  I probably should hve bolded the word "comparatively" in that post.

I was trying to make the point that WashU is "comparatively weak" compared to the squads that defeated Baldwin-Wallace (Mount Union and Ohio Northern) and Illinois Wesleyan (North Central and Wheaton).  All four of those teams are perennial playoff contenders, not that I have to tell you that.

[altor]

Millikin over Wheaton
Heidelberg over ONU
Louisiana College over Hardin-Simmons
Randolph Macon over Hampden Sydney
Cornell over Coe
Augsburg over Bethel
Willamette over Pacific Lutheran
Chapman over Redlands
New Jersey over Rowan
William Patterson over Montclair State
Ithaca over Cortland State

Don't forget, you also want Trine (and maybe Franklin) to win their AQ's.

[wally_wabash]

Millikin over Wheaton
Heidelberg over ONU
Louisiana College over Hardin-Simmons
Randolph Macon over Hampden Sydney
Cornell over Coe
Augsburg over Bethel
Willamette over Pacific Lutheran
Chapman over Redlands
New Jersey over Rowan
William Patterson over Montclair State
Ithaca over Cortland State

Don't forget, you also want Trine (and maybe Franklin) to win their AQ's.

Trine for sure.  I think Franklin falls below Wabash if they lose to Hanover.