FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

I'm intrigued by the Chicago/OWU game.  You get the feeling that OWU is close, they just need to finish and get a win over a decent team to get some positive inertia.  If OWU can get by Chicago, they may just run the table here (really...look at their schedule; all winnable games).  I wouldn't have given them a shot to beat DPU three weeks ago, but DePauw has been super bad in their last two games. 

I think it might be a bit aggressive to put Oberlin in the top three here.  They did lose to Wooster.  I know  you're working with a Barnes correction factor, but I need to see the Yeoman handle somebody other than Kenyon and Hiram before I make them a top 3.  Oberlin's next four: @Witt, @CWRU, vs. Wabash, vs. WUStl.  We'll know where Oberlin stands after the next month of games. 

[bashbrother]

If you look at the Denison/Case box score and don't look at the score,  one could probably say it was a pretty close game on the scoreboard (Similar to the Wabash/OWU Game)  I have a hunch the Denison/Wooster game may deliver a surprise.

Surprisingly, Oberlin's Defense gave up 353 yards to Hiram....  They will be facing a much better offense this week in Witt and thus It will most likely be a long day for the Yeoman D.  Another item of note: - Witt's D is giving up some points this year (Save the Gheny game).  (2010 Reg. Season 117 points allowed (10 games)  2011 -  61 pts allowed thus far (4 games) )


OWU needs a win here.   If they don't get it,  I fear the memories of the "Program's Recent Past" may begin to creep back into this team's psyche.  Again, a victory here would be huge for this program.

Gheny -  I am leaning toward believing this Gheny team is not very good.  And has victories over a bad Depauw offering and a down CMU team.  We shall see.

Wabash -  Just needs to concentrate on playing clean, executing and staying healthy through this one.  Scoring 60+ is not the goal.   Don't want to look past anyone, but.....

[DPU3619]

Centre (3-0) @ DePauw (1-2): This is a litmus test for the Tigers. After a loss to Rhodes that can be put as either surprising or embarrassing, another game against their erstwhile conference foes could make or break a .500 season for the DPU. Centre is one of the two upstart (and fleeing) SCAC programs (Birmingham Southern is the other) trying to put a kibosh on Trinity's resurgence.  A win against DePauw will give them even more confidence. For the Tigers, they'll need some motivation to win.

Not trying to pick on you smed, but if this is a litmus test for DePauw, I don't really know what the past 3 weeks have been.  Everybody's frustrated.  Nobody wants this thing to get out of hand and show up on 11/12 at 2-6 or 1-7. 

Unfortunately, Centre is the best team on the schedule so far.  They're scoring 42 a game.  DePauw HAS to find a way to move the football.  I know I keep harping on that, but they couldn't get it out of their own end on Saturday.  It's also their first home game and they're last home game for a month.

[BashDad]

Also, while I generally like the updated look fo the NCAC webpage, I'm not liking the new stats page.  Kind of tough to sort, can't find any stats on team defenses or team special teams.  I'm sure it's all automated and easier/quicker for the stats person over there, but stuff is missing.  Just putting it out there suggestion box style.

You weren't kidding. Wow, is that page a mess. Where are the TEAM DEFENSE statistics?

[smedindy]

Centre (3-0) @ DePauw (1-2): This is a litmus test for the Tigers. After a loss to Rhodes that can be put as either surprising or embarrassing, another game against their erstwhile conference foes could make or break a .500 season for the DPU. Centre is one of the two upstart (and fleeing) SCAC programs (Birmingham Southern is the other) trying to put a kibosh on Trinity's resurgence.  A win against DePauw will give them even more confidence. For the Tigers, they'll need some motivation to win.

Not trying to pick on you smed, but if this is a litmus test for DePauw, I don't really know what the past 3 weeks have been.  Everybody's frustrated.  Nobody wants this thing to get out of hand and show up on 11/12 at 2-6 or 1-7. 

Unfortunately, Centre is the best team on the schedule so far.  They're scoring 42 a game.  DePauw HAS to find a way to move the football.  I know I keep harping on that, but they couldn't get it out of their own end on Saturday.  It's also their first home game and they're last home game for a month.

What I meant was that this will tell what beats inside of the Tigers. Can they overcome a season in limbo and a bad loss, or will they just go, "Bleargh!"

[wally_wabash]

The part that is puzzling to me is how DePauw has fallen this flat.  I get that they graduated a bunch of players, especially on offense, but to go from what they were for most of their 2010 season to completely inept is bizarre.  Wabash graduated most of their offense from the 2009 team, then lost both of their key returning seniors on offense before halftime of game 1 and managed a decent offense in 2010.  It wasn't the best offense Wabash has put together, but they were able to score points and win games.  I guess I just assumed there was more depth at DePauw. 

[DPU3619]

It's all those things and it's the fact that they lost a pretty darn good offensive coordinator, too.  I'm not trying to put Joe Deifel's head on the chopping block here, but Dustin Ward had a good thing going there.  That's probably the biggest loss of all.  I was convinced you could plug just about anybody in at the skill spots in that Ward scheme and still succeed.  Having Koors sure helped out a lot, but a lot of those routes could have been run by anybody.  That offense worked because of how the routes were combined with each other against a zone.  Dustin called plays to find holes and it worked. Except last year in the Bell game when the Wabash CBs seemed like they knew the routes before we ran them.

The passing game just isn't the same as it was with Spud or Engle.  Engle's efficiency last year was 154.4.  That's even with 15 INTs.  Schweir's effeciency is 98.  They're completing a lower percentage of passes.  They're getting 100 less passing yards per game.  They have 2 passing TDs in 3 games.  They've only been in the red zone 7 times in 3 games.  Rhodes was in the red zone 5 times on Saturday alone.  They've already been to 3rd down 50 times.  They're only converting 44% of those.  23 penalties in 3 games.  I could go on and on. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Chicago-OWU is a fascinating game, and I agree that it's very important for OWU.  They've played very respectable ball the past few weeks, but at some point moral victories won't cut it anymore, and I've seen some teams that played tough early in the season eventually pack it in.  However, a win over either Chicago or CMU would give them a shot at a .500 season (closing with relative "equals" in Kenyon, Oberlin, and Hiram - although Oberlin might be a stretch, more on that in a second).  I think that Chicago SHOULD win this game, but I admit that I had a pretty similar feeling to wally that this is a real make-or-break game for OWU this season, and they might just break through this week.

CMU-Hiram will not be close (although I think you're using the term "slugfest" to mean "both teams will score some points" in which case I somewhat agree; I expect something like a 48-21 CMU win).  Even if Hiram's defense is improved, it's hard to imagine them keeping it close.

CWRU-'Gheny is impossible to figure.  I posted the other day on the UAA board about how hard it was to figure out all of the UAA teams b/c each team has had at least one decent win and at least one awful loss, and 'Gheny fits that description as well.  I wouldn't be surprised by a 21-point win in either direction.

As a UAA fan, I'd say that I expect all three UAA teams to win these matchups..and recent history would support me - I've often pointed out that the UAA teams have generally a) been owned by Wabash/Witt, b) played relatively even with Allegheny/Wooster, and c) killed everybody else.  Normally, I wouldn't even think about whether Chicago or CMU would beat OWU/Hiram/Denison-type teams, but for some reason this year I'm nervous.

*Oberlin fascinates me, also, because they were an "almost" team last year that was a little better than their record suggested.  They finished 4-6, but had very competitive losses against Witt (27-21), 8-2 CWRU (led 21-14 at end 1st qtr, eventually lost 48-36), and 7-3 Allegheny (17-14).  They're off to a 2-1 start this year but they aren't really any better-positioned than last year...with Witt and 'Bash coming up in the next few games, that record might become 2-5 in a hurry.  I think that Oberlin IS a dangerous team, but their final record may not reflect it - they've already played a couple of lightweights and won't see another true lightweight til much later in the season.

[bashbrother]

Some may have seen some of my optimistic comments in the past few weeks, about Denison, OWU etc.   I think it is more of a case of me wanting a true quality mid-level NCAC team to step-up and establish itself.   A team that could threaten and even beat one or more of the top tier in certain years.

This year in our conference thru week 4, it seems as though we have;

Wabash and Witt are firmly established at the Top with Wooster looking like they could very well  hold onto that 3rd territory.   In the past, we have seen Gheny and OWU fitting in and competing well with the top tier or occasionally even putting themselves in top 3.    We then have the Denison and Oberlin programs that always give us some "Muskingum Hope" early in the year, only to fall back into the top of the bottom tier of teams. 

Depauw will add, I think, a very nice competitive dynamic to the conference. (well maybe not this years Tiger's version) but their proud program will be back soon and I expect them to challenge for the conference every year.   

[D3_DPUFan]

It's all those things and it's the fact that they lost a pretty darn good offensive coordinator, too.  I'm not trying to put Joe Deifel's head on the chopping block here, but Dustin Ward had a good thing going there.  That's probably the biggest loss of all.  I was convinced you could plug just about anybody in at the skill spots in that Ward scheme and still succeed.  Having Koors sure helped out a lot, but a lot of those routes could have been run by anybody.  That offense worked because of how the routes were combined with each other against a zone.  Dustin called plays to find holes and it worked. Except last year in the Bell game when the Wabash CBs seemed like they knew the routes before we ran them.

The passing game just isn't the same as it was with Spud or Engle.  Engle's efficiency last year was 154.4.  That's even with 15 INTs.  Schweir's effeciency is 98.  They're completing a lower percentage of passes.  They're getting 100 less passing yards per game.  They have 2 passing TDs in 3 games.  They've only been in the red zone 7 times in 3 games.  Rhodes was in the red zone 5 times on Saturday alone.  They've already been to 3rd down 50 times.  They're only converting 44% of those.  23 penalties in 3 games.  I could go on and on. /quote]

Good thoughts, Wes...Dustin was an excellent coordinator...and as a young guy who played in the Big 10 he had a nice rapport with kids who wanted to be challenged...the offense put a lot on the QBs in terms of reads and line blocking calls...but most of all it was an offense (as most do) that demanded QBs make good decisions and get the ball quick and out where it is suposed to go...DPU will get it figured out...Robby is a good man...this year may be a long one, though...

[smedindy]

Right Tartan, as I said i don't think Hiram can stop CMU. I was thinking more of 48-34 or something like that

[Bash-Dad #84]

Looking forward to having a great football Saturday. First we are going to C'ville to watch #84 and the Little Giants run around, then we are heading 30 minutes north to watch ND try to climb back up above 500. Which game do you think I am most excited about? Yeah, that's right but watching the Irish will be fun too!

Wabash Always Fights!                         Go IRISH!

[WABCOL86]

Well, I'll be there, most likely with my wife and eldest son (possibly the daughter as well, as she wants to do some spectating of things other than football).  Wearing my red Wabash Hoodie and my Wabash Football hat.  Really narrows it down, huh?

I don't care what the final score is as long as we win....

WAF!!

[wally_wabash]

(possibly the daughter as well, as she wants to do some spectating of things other than football). 

Homecoming floats and banners, right? 

Looking forward to having a great football Saturday. First we are going to C'ville to watch #84 and the Little Giants run around, then we are heading 30 minutes north to watch ND try to climb back up above 500. Which game do you think I am most excited about? Yeah, that's right but watching the Irish will be fun too!

Wabash Always Fights!                         Go IRISH!

I have a strong feeling that you'll be happy at the end of both events.  Matchups are, shall we say, favorable. 

[WABCOL86]

Floats and banners, sure....