FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

I was going to do an around the league look at the upcoming weekend, but let's not burn out the bit.  Instead, we're halfway done with the 2011 season.  How are teams doing?  My opinion...

Allegheny - Gators are 3-3, 1-1 and I really don't have a lot to say about them.  They have the worst offense in the league (by yardage) and they just beat Kenyon by 14 points (whereas everybody else is really taking it out on the Lords).  It just seems like everything is pretty plain with these Gators.  I think they're looking at 5-5 or 6-4 pending their result against Denison this week.  The Gators are pretty much right where I thought they'd be in my preseason post.  4-2 in league is available if they can beat Denison. 

Denison - Surprise, surprise.  Denison is definitely better than I thought.  They've got Woody's horseshoe.  They've got the lantern.  They've got the league's top offense (by yardage) through six weeks.  Go figure.  In hindsight that loss to OWU looks strange because OWU can't score points, but the Big Red are a little more polished than I thought they would be.  4-2 in league looks like a worse case scenario right now.  5-1 is available if they can win this weekend which is going to get them second place.  Not shabby. 

Hiram - I pegged Hiram for 0-6 with Rehor out, but Hanna has filled in well enough to get one against Kenyon.  I think that's probably it for Hiram this year, but there may be one more win available on Senior Day against OWU.  Hiram...officially better than I had forecasted. 

Kenyon - Kenyon just this weekend scored their first points in the first half this year.  That's not good.  This week they get to host Witt coming off of a big loss.  That defense is going to be chasing bombs all day.  I'm not sure where Kenyon gets a win here this year.  They have a game with OWU, who can't score on anybody but eveybody is scoring on Kenyon so the Bishops should do well there.  Tough season for the Lords. 

Oberlin - I thought Oberlin would beat Hiram (they did) and then I didn't think they would win any more league games, mostly because their OWU game comes later and Oberlin's roster was thin to start with.  Unfortunately, that was way too correct.  Oberlin closes by hosting Wabash and WashU, and then has roadies at Denison, at OWU (Senior Day), and at Allegheny (Senior Day).  I can't find a win there.  Looks like 2-8 for Oberlin which will be disappointing given the way they started. 

OWU - I pegged OWU for 3-3 in league play and they can still acheive that. They close with Kenyon, Oberlin, and Hiram and I think they should win all of those games.  I think this is still going to be a disappointing year for OWU.  They could get a spoonful of sugar by beating DePauw in a couple of weeks.  OWU is last in the league in 3rd down conversion and last in the league in opponent 3rd conversion.  Gotta be able to run the ball a little bit, Bishops. 

Wabash - I'm not sure the first half of the season could have gone much better for Wabash.  24 points in 5 games. That's what you get.  Wabash has been good in all phases.  The offense has more balance than we've seen since probably 2003, the defense is filthy, and Wabash's special teams are strong.  It's all working for Wabash right now.  They came out of the gate with a big league win on the road, they've exacted revenge on the Bears, and all sights are set on November.  Weeks 10 and 11 are what this season has always been about. 

Wittenberg - Witt has to be a little disappointed.  They came out on fire in that weird game against Capital that was split up over two days.  After that, except for their game against Allegheny, they've been a little dicey.  Sure the vertical offense is there, but the Tiger D hasn't been nearly the same as it was the last two years.  They have this weird thing about road games and not playing well which finally manifested itself into a loss on Saturday.  Wittenberg is still undefeated in league play, but they haven't quite been the team that I think we thought we were getting. 

Wooster - The Scots are easily the biggest disappointment in the league.  Coming into the season Wooster was a clear #3 and some thought they would challenge Wabash and Wittenberg at the top.  They missed Cam Daniels at the start of the year, and they're missing Richard Barnes now, but Wooster's offense has been just awful.  1st team all league RB Robert Flagg is giving them minimal production and the Scots are scoring less than 9 points per game.  I thought they'd be 4-2 and competitive in their losses to the the Ws, but it looks like they'll wind up 3-3 in league play, but 4-6 overall which is very disappointing for this group. 

[smedindy]

Enrollment is tough in many places - chasing the elusive male college student is tougher. Oberlin's got another whammy in that it's perceived as a granola campus that loathes athletics. In fact, the football team's improvement shatters that perception. They may fizzle out, but this isn't the Oberlin team that would get blasted every game.

Now, it's time to get recruiting.

[ExTartanPlayer]

@Wally:

I think you're underrating Allegheny a little bit and overrating Denison a little bit, although that's probably influenced by your relative "expectation" from each of the two programs.

Remove the loss to Bethany (which looks more puzzling each week) and the 'Gheny season is probably about par for the course.  Blowout loss to Witt, close loss to CWRU, and three "decent" wins.  Depending on their result vs. Denison this week, they'll probably end up about 6-4.  That's somewhat disappointing, considering that 'Gheny has been a pretty clearcut #3 in the NCAC for the past two seasons, but the only result that's REALLY disappointing is the loss to Bethany.

Denison, meanwhile, has one surprising result in the opposite direction (the win over Wooster).  Other than that, they lost to OWU, beat Hiram and Earlham, and lost to UAA rivals Chicago and CWRU...again, just about par for the course at Denison.  I can't say that any of those results, viewed individually, makes me think that Denison is much better than usual - and even the win over Wooster may not be all that great (Wooster has a 14-3 win over Oberlin and a 10-6 win over OWU, not exactly earth-shattering stuff there).

Overall point being: I think you're slightly over-valuing a few surprising results in your evaluation.  If Allegheny beats Denison this week, in all likelihood, Gheny finishes 6-4 and third place, Denison finishes 5-5 and fourth place, and we're pretty much looking at the usual pecking order in the NCAC (minus the surprisingly-bad Wooster* team)

*I have a strange question: are some NCAC teams playing each other as "non-conference" games this year because of the shakeup to come?  I just noticed that Wooster has beaten two NCAC opponents (Oberlin and OWU) but is only credited with one win in the conference standings.

Hiram and Kenyon are disappointing, but Hiram has been a little more competitive than Kenyon in their losses.

Oberlin, like you said, seems to be a decent team that's just running out of bodies and steam.  If they played the rest of the NCAC "lightweights" earlier in the season, I think they would have beaten most of them, but unfortunately they may end up 2-8 just because of a lack of depth, which is a shame.  I do think they might beat OWU (partially because I just watched a so-so CMU team beat OWU very badly, more on this below) if they have enough healthy bodies to play.

OWU looks like they started off with some pep and have lost steam as well.  In some ways, the result has gotten progressively "worse" each week (their Week 2 and 3 losses were much "better" than the Week 5 and 6 losses).  I don't really believe that this year's CMU team is THAT good, and they beat OWU very easily (scoring on the first five possessions), when I expected to see a little fight out of OWU given their earlier competitive losses.

'Bash is very, very good and they have steamrolled the competition in front of them.  No doubt about that.  You can't do any more than beat the teams that you play.  However, I think it's hard to get a read on whether they are a legitimate playoff team just because of the lack of competition...and it's going to stay that way until they play Wittenberg.

Witt, I agree with your assessment.  Their puzzling home/road Jekyll-and-Hyde act finally bit them.

Also agree w/the comments about Wooster.

[wally_wabash]

ETP-

I didn't have big expectations for Allegheny this year.  They were in that 3 spot the last couple of years because they had an experienced quarterback and I think that matters a ton.  This year they are playing a senior at quarterback, but he had negligible experience before this season started.  Their offense, predictably, has struggled.  I had them pegged for 4-2 in league play which they may well get to, but all in all they are pretty much what I thought they would be. 

I realize Denison's positive results have come against some bad teams.  They did get a big win against Wooster (at Wooster, on Homecoming).  If they beat Allegheny they will exceed my expectation. 

Part of it is also not just the final results but how teams have played.  Denison has more offense than I thought they would.  Paulus and Fioroni are helping that group pile up some yards (top yardage offense in the NCAC so far).

The bottom line for the league at the halfway point here in 2011, I think, is that we've got two pretty good teams and then an awful lot of mediocrity. 

And you're right about Wabash.  After the Wooster game (which in  hindsight doesn't look like as nice a win as we would have thought at the beginning of September) there wasn't going to be a really strong test until November. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

And you're right about Wabash.  After the Wooster game (which in  hindsight doesn't look like as nice a win as we would have thought at the beginning of September) there wasn't going to be a really strong test until November.

Which is frustrating in itself, although it's certainly nice to see your team execute so well.

My alma mater (high school, not CMU) is experiencing the same thing right now.  They're 6-0 and putting up whopping scores (three weeks ago they led 49-0 at the end of the first quarter en route to a 70-7 win, the next week they won 49-0, and this week they scored the first 48 points en route to a 48-14 win...) but they just aren't playing anybody that can hit back.  Fortunately, they will play a few decent teams at the end of the year before the playoffs.

Same for 'Bash.  At least the harder games (relatively speaking) will come at the end of the season...at least two from the group of Denison, 'Gheny, Witt, and DePauw should be tough enough to keep the starters in the game for three quarters.

[wally_wabash]

At least the harder games (relatively speaking) will come at the end of the season...at least two from the group of Denison, 'Gheny, Witt, and DePauw should be tough enough to keep the starters in the game for three quarters.

We'll see what happens down the stretch.  I think the word is going to get into the ears of the Wabash defense that Denison is piling up yards and I think they'll be geared up for that challenge in a couple of weeks.  Allegheny and Wittenberg have two weeks to prepare for Wabash which I think is a big deal.  Particularly for the defenses.  WashU clearly used their extra week to be well prepared for the Wabash offense this past Saturday.  The Witt game has become positively fierce.  It's going to be for the league title and a playoff spot again this year, so both teams will bring it for sure.  And then who the heck knows what will happen at the Bell game.  DePauw, literally, has nothing to lose.  They don't have a playoff spot to play for.  They don't have the Bell.  Their entire season boils down to that one game and, in this game specifically,  I've seen kids on these teams find a level of play that didn't exist before that November afternoon.  Lots of football to be played for sure. 

[D3_DPUFan]

DePauw Monon Ticket release

http://www.depauw.edu/ath/news/story/27700/

[BashBacker#16]

No one commented on this but how DUMB was WashU's coach for continuing to kick to Chamblee?  They kicked away the first time and I thought, bummer, then he started kicking at him.  Personally, I thought, it's showtime...

[FightinScot]

Good stuff, FightinScot.  Thanks for the insight.  Just one question...I get the sense that y'all don't like Richard Barnes all that much.  What's up with that?  I think he's a tremendous player and he scares me roughly 879 times more than Robert Flagg ever has.

He is very good at evading the rush and making something out of a broken play. He's slippery - reminds me of Dan Whalen in that regard.

On the other hand, he's not a threat to pass downfield, and not very accurate, and I think he can get too East-West. Not to mention how impressed I am with the other kid, Frongillo.

Just look at the stats:
Barnes: (3 games) 52-100, 467 yds 0 TD, 6 INTs, 52% completion; Rushing- 40 for 191 minus 81 for a loss (2.8 ypc) and 1 TD
Frongillo: (4 games, 2 starts) 40-64 378 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT 62.5% completion; Rushing - 37 for 182, 16 for a loss (4.5 ypc)

What the other kid gives up to Barnes in being able to avoid the rush, he makes up for in better decision-making and giving the team more of a downfield passing game. The team had more of a spark when Frong was in, from what I could tell.

What truly stumps me, is how you are so unimpressed with Flagg. He's a homerun threat every time he touches the ball. He's not a big guy so he needs an OL to give him some space, but he's strong for his size, and is a threat as a receiver and a runner. Do you just feel that Bash can control the line of scrimmage and keep him in check?

[BashDad]

What truly stumps me is how you are so unimpressed with Flagg. He's a homerun threat every time he touches the ball.

Heavens to Betsy.

Flagg ran for 4 yards against Denison. He hasn't had a single rush over 15 yards all season. He has three touchdowns (of 2, 4, and 1 yards) on 96 touches. He has---

Wait... Wait, stop. Hold on. What were we..? What was I...? I'm so bored. I--can't--fin--

[smedindy]

The irony is that Flagg ran for 82 yards against Wabash. The same Wabash that is leading the nation in scoring defense.

So as the competition has gotten easier his stats have taken a nose dive.

[bashbrother]

Coach Carlson sure has a good one up there at St. Scholastica - 

Alex Thiry, QB   SR   75 of 95 passing  (75.7%)   1040 yards.....17 Td's  0 Ints.   220.67  Efficientcy Rating (leads Div III) 

[ExTartanPlayer]

One thing I want to repeat, because it may have gotten lost in my long post earlier.

*I have a strange question: are some NCAC teams playing each other as "non-conference" games this year because of the shakeup to come?  I just noticed that Wooster has beaten two NCAC opponents (Oberlin and OWU) but is only credited with one win in the conference standings.

[smedindy]

This is the result of Earlham bolting the league, leaving a hole in schedules. It could have definitely been addressed by the NCAC to not have those odd 'non-conference' conference games but it wasn't and we've drove that into the ground.

Next year, there will be just one of those (the OWU / Denison game) as the final year of the UAA agreement is in place. Then in 2013 the full-round robin in the NCAC begins leaving just one non-conference game out there in either week 1 or 2.

[wally_wabash]

The team had more of a spark when Frong was in, from what I could tell.

Like a mini-Tebow.   

What truly stumps me, is how you are so unimpressed with Flagg. He's a homerun threat every time he touches the ball. He's not a big guy so he needs an OL to give him some space, but he's strong for his size, and is a threat as a receiver and a runner. Do you just feel that Bash can control the line of scrimmage and keep him in check?

I think pretty much any decent defense can hold Flagg in check.  Don't get me wrong; he's a nice player.  Better than average.  But I've seen him in person four times and he just doesn't stand out as a guy that single handedly tilts a game.  7 rushes for 3 yards.  Against Denison.  It's hard to look at that and be convinced that he's the head of the RB class in the NCAC.