FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[smedindy]

I was optimistic about the NCAC this season, non-conference wise. And next year, when DPU came to town, I thought the NCAC had a chance to move to the upper echelon of the middle-of-the-pack.

Well, taking the 'non-conference' NCAC games out of the mix, and any game with DPU out of the mix (or any DPU game with an NCAC foe out), here are the non-conference records to date:

Wabash 2-0
Wittenberg 2-1
Allegheny 1-2
Denison 1-2
Oberlin 0-1
Wooster 0-2
Hiram 0-4
OWU 0-2
Kenyon 0-1
DePauw 1-3

That's 7-18, folks.

As much as we talk about Denison and Oberlin improving, as much as we feel OWU's pain, as much as we hurt for Wooster's injuries, as much as we rationalize that DePauw may not have anything to play for and is down, this non-conference season has been a disaster for the NCAC. A disaster.

All 10 of us have to get better. For Wabash and Witt, that means deeper runs, for DPU, that means getting over the season in limbo, for Denison and Oberlin, continuing on the improvement, for Gheny, OWU and Wooster, righting the ship and finding what you once had, for Hiram and Kenyon, that means a win or two.

There is football left, but right now I think the NCAC is a one-bid league and deservedly so. 

[wally_wabash]

If Wabash is #3 in all O performance catagories ... then you missed reading the QB area. 

Actually, I did not.  Wabash is #3 in pass offense, #1 in pass efficiency.  Individually, Chase Belton is #1 in the league in pass efficiency.  I didn't miss the QB stats. 

Look, I'm not saying he played a good game yesterday.  He didn't and I've said as much.  What I am saying is that the numbers simply do not support your own assertion that he stinks and is holding the offense back.  He doesn't stink and the offense doesn't stink.  The data, which are emotion free, do not agree.  Flip flopping quarterbacks on a whim doesn't do anybody any good.  This strategy has never once worked in the history of football.  The last time Wabash played that game, they limped through a 6-4 season that none of us care to relive anytime soon. 

[wally_wabash]

I was optimistic about the NCAC this season, non-conference wise. And next year, when DPU came to town, I thought the NCAC had a chance to move to the upper echelon of the middle-of-the-pack.

Well, taking the 'non-conference' NCAC games out of the mix, and any game with DPU out of the mix (or any DPU game with an NCAC foe out), here are the non-conference records to date:

Wabash 2-0
Wittenberg 2-1
Allegheny 1-2
Denison 1-2
Oberlin 0-1
Wooster 0-2
Hiram 0-4
OWU 0-2
Kenyon 0-1
DePauw 1-3

That's 7-18, folks.

As much as we talk about Denison and Oberlin improving, as much as we feel OWU's pain, as much as we hurt for Wooster's injuries, as much as we rationalize that DePauw may not have anything to play for and is down, this non-conference season has been a disaster for the NCAC. A disaster.

All 10 of us have to get better. For Wabash and Witt, that means deeper runs, for DPU, that means getting over the season in limbo, for Denison and Oberlin, continuing on the improvement, for Gheny, OWU and Wooster, righting the ship and finding what you once had, for Hiram and Kenyon, that means a win or two.

There is football left, but right now I think the NCAC is a one-bid league and deservedly so.

You're absolutely right about the NCAC having an awful year.  I expected Wooster to be a lot better.  I expected DePauw to be a lot better.  Overall, the league isn't doing well this year...maybe even a step backward from the last year or two. 

That having been said, I think it's too early to call it a one-bid league.  It may be.  If Wittenberg loses a second game and doesn't win the auto bid, then they won't be invited.  If Wabash loses once and doesn't win the auto bid, I believe they will be a strong candidate for selection.  The OAC has beat themselves up to the point that 9-1 Wabash ought to be regionally ranked ahead of the OAC runner up.  There are more losses coming from the CCIW as well.  We'll have to get a look at the SOS matrix to get a better idea of where teams might stand relative to one another. 

[bashbrother]

Venting frustrations about yesterday's team performance should not exclude the guy behind center. He's got to be better.

True

At this point, QB just isn't the be-all-end-all strength of this team. That's the identity. It's just one we're not used to.

We have gotten pretty used to QB's being the signature in recent years.

To be clear, I think pulling him would be a disaster. Pre-season is when those decisions should be made, period.

I agree with this, I do.   As a former All-American QB,  your opinion on this matter is extremely credible. 

[bashbrother]

I bet this is going be to a rough week of practice.... ER is probably fit to be tied over some of the things he saw on Saturday.   I would not want to be Denison,  expect a focused and motivated LG team on Saturday.

Onward and Upward Little Giants!

WAF!

[wabco]

Good D-3 interview with Greg Carlson.  He started at zero 4 years ago and is now - with the school's first groop of football seniors - has St. Scholastica on the road to be conference champs and receive the automatic bid awarded their conference.  Nice job Coach! 

[wally_wabash]

Some bad news on the SOS front.  Whereas last year Wabash finished 15th in SOS, this year through this weekend's games the LGs are 181st.  Wabash will get a little help from Denison, Allegheny, and Witt.  DePauw will be no help whatsoever to SOS. 

If there is any consolation to this, when it comes to at-large selection (if necessary) being a one loss team seems to matter a lot more than having a high SOS number which we learned last year. 

Just an FYI if you're keeping an eye on the pool C situation. 

[smedindy]

Let's hope it doesn't come to that. I can see the ASC, SCAC, SCIAC, MIAC, CCIW and maybe the NJAC having teams with very solid "C" credentials

Fortunately, the ODAC contenders all have a loss already, and the OAC runner-up will have two losses. And the IIAC has gone stark raving mad.

And what to do about Wesley and / or Case? If Wesley wins out, they'd be a more solid "B" than Case, even with the loss to Kean and then what about an undefeated Case? Are they a "C"? The mind boggles.

A 2-loss Oshkosh (one out of region and both to the Purple Hordes) would have a better profile than a 1-loss Wabash.

Lots of football left, but I think the committee hopes that sanity reigns.

[smedindy]

To wit, these teams are in "C" contention from the conferences I mentioned (not including Oshkosh or Wesley or Case):

McMurry (what a way to say goodbye to D-3...)
Centre / Trinity
Redlands
St. Thomas / Bethel
North Central / Illinois Wesleyan / Wheaton
Montclair St. (if they lose to Kean)

Again, I think Wabash is better than many of the teams on this list, and equal to all of the others (except St. Thomas) but that's not part of the criteria...

[wally_wabash]

To wit, these teams are in "C" contention from the conferences I mentioned (not including Oshkosh or Wesley or Case):

McMurry (what a way to say goodbye to D-3...)
Centre / Trinity
Redlands
St. Thomas / Bethel
North Central / Illinois Wesleyan / Wheaton
Montclair St. (if they lose to Kean)

Again, I think Wabash is better than many of the teams on this list, and equal to all of the others (except St. Thomas) but that's not part of the criteria...

Next week Bethel plays St. Thomas and Oshkosh plays Whitewater.  If we get upsets, then we get Pool C craziness.  If not, both Bethel and Oshkosh get two losses and fall behind anybody that has just one loss.  And while I wouldn't argue that some of those teams that are going to wind up with two losses this  year are probably "better" than some of the teams that will wind up with two losses, the selection committee has time and time and time again shown us that your W/L record trumps all.  You don't want to be a team with multiple losses and then try and hang your hat on conference rep (which is not a criteria) or SOS (which is a criteria). 

Also, for accuracy, CWRU is not undefeated.  They have a chance to wind up 9-1, which makes them an interesting team at selection time, particularly if Wesley doesn't stop the Salisbury express in a few weeks. 

[smedindy]

Oshkosh has just one in-region loss, though. And you're right about Bethel because both losses would be in-region.

Missed the Case loss but again it's not in-region. This is where it gets nuts.

I posted trying to get my mind off of what happened in Vegas at the IndyCar race. So I should have been clearer.

[bashbrother]

Did I hear a week or so ago that the Huntingdon loss was actually an In-region loss for Witt? 

[wally_wabash]

Yes, Witt/Huntingdon was an in-region game. 

If the committee is consistent with what they did last year, the in-region vs. out of region stuff doesn't play into it all that much.  If so, Wabash with an 8-1 regional record and at least one win over a regionally ranked team (DePauw) and possibly two (if Chicago cracked the list at the end there) and the #15 SOS ought to have been invited.  The out of region loss to WashU buried Wabash (which I don't disagree with, but it shouldn't have factored in per the primary criteria).  I think with just 10 games, it's very difficult for a committee to dismiss a result against any D3 opponent. 

Where this line of thinking gets interesting this year is with McMurry.  If you're going to give them credit for beating UTSA, then you can't just ignore the fact that they gave up 80 to another DI team.  Those results either both have to count or neither can count.  They will be an interesting case on Selection Sunday. 

[Pat Coleman]

That's an in-region game -- it's marked as such on our site and always has been.
http://www.d3football.com/teams/Wittenberg/2011/index

[BashBacker#16]

Wabash up to #11 in the latest poll.  http://www.d3football.com/top25/2011/week7