FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

smeds, That's exactly where I was when I wondered alound about Wooster getting to six wins.  They've got five games (three on the road) that I can't lean significantly on one way or another and (unless they stun CWRU, Witt, or Wabash) they need to win four of them to get to six wins.  I'll be most interested to see what Wooster does at quarterback.  That's a unique and potentially difficult situation. 

[wally_wabash]

Breaking...Coaches poll is out!  Results:

Wabash (9) - 98
Witt (1) - 90
DePauw - 72
Wooster - 63
Allegheny - 62
Denison - 55
OWU - 42
Oberlin - 38
Hiram - 16
Kenyon - 14

I need a minute to take this in...discuss. 

[smedindy]

Someone voted Wabash third? Someone voted Witt third?

Surprised to see DPU third by that much. I thought that DPU / Wooster / Gheny would muddle the middle more and Denison would get a bit more love.

[Wabash Hokie]

Breaking...Coaches poll is out!  Results:

Wabash (9) - 98
Witt (1) - 90
DePauw - 72
Wooster - 63
Allegheny - 62
Denison - 55
OWU - 42
Oberlin - 38
Hiram - 16
Kenyon - 14

I need a minute to take this in...discuss.

First thoughts:
1) Someone picked Wabash to finish 3rd?  Hmm.
2) Witt was picked 1st (1) or 2nd (9)
2)  Everyone seems to think DePauw will return to form in 2012 or at least closer to it. I was surprised to see them that far ahead of Wooster and Allegheny.  Looks like the Dannies picked up the one remaining 2nd place vote that would account for much of the separation.
3) On the other end of the spectrum, Hiram and Kenyon most likely garnered all of the 9th and 10th place votes with Hiram getting 6 9th place votes and 4 10th place votes.

Only another 30 days before the games begin.  Hurrah.

[wally_wabash]

I was actually in the middle of working my through the schedules and projecting wins and losses for a 2012 prediction/outlook post...it seems that I'm generally in agreement with the results of the poll.  Here's what I came up with....

1. Wabash (7-0, 10-0) - I think this team has a very stingy defense.  Maybe stingier than last year's group that allowed under 13 ppg.  There is a three year starting senior at quarterback.  There will be shoes to fill at WR, but over the last 8-10 years, Wabash has done well to keep coming back with very good recievers.  The offensive line is good.  Running back has some solid returning players (Hunt, Holmes) and a couple of interesting newcomers so we'll see who steps up to grab the bulk of the carries.  All around, this is a solid, experienced team.  In league play, the game at Witt is the biggest obstacle, but now with the Monon Bell game being a league contest, that game will also count just that much more. 

2. Witt (6-1, 9-1) - Witt has some big shoes to fill on offense.  Gone are the top two receivers in school history and the right arm that has thrown most of those passes.  In comes Reed Florence, who I think could be a very, very difficult player to defend.  It'll be interesting to see how Witt changes their offense to utilize Florence's skill set (much different than Zoeller).  The first four games for Witt are no picnic, so they won't be able to keep all of their cards in the deck before the big game against Wabash.  The league champion is most likely coming from that game on 10/6.  I think these two teams have better players than anybody else in the league right now and I don't think it's particularly close. 

t-3. Allegheny (4-3, 6-4) - So I've got a four way tie for third place.  It's allowed.  I think I feel best about this prediction for Allegheny.  I think they are definitely better than Oberlin, Kenyon, OWU, and Hiram.  They could be better than DPU, which is their toss up game for me.  They won that game last year, but this year I'm giving DPU the edge.  Also, I have them losing in week 1 to Wooster, but that's a non-league game and unfortunately doesn't really count for much.  It could've helped break this tie. 

t-3. DePauw (4-3, 5-5) - Alright, the Tigers are back from their one year exile and I think that they'll be a little more settled this time around.  And there's no way they can get every quarterback on the roster knocked out again, right?  So in league play, I don't think DePauw is ready for that first game at Witt (welcome to the league, fellas) or to beat Wabash.  I tossed a coin and have them losing at Wooster for their third league loss.  It's reasonable that they could lose at Allegheny (they did last year) and at Wooster, they could win both, they could lose to Denison at home...who knows.  I really completely lost track of what this team is last year.  DePauw could go 5-2 in league play or 2-5.  Neither would really shock me. 

t-3. Wooster (4-3, 5-5) - I couldn't find the six wins for Wooster.  I'm not sure what they are doing at quarterback.  I think Barnes is an obvious choice, but I know that a lot of folks in Wooster really like the way Frongillo played.  Whatever the choice is, Wooster has to be way better in the red zone (both in terms of getting there and finishing with points) than they were in 2011 if they even want to get to 5-5.  I'm giving Wooster credit for wins against Hiram, DePauw, Kenyon, and at OWU.  I do have them losing to Denison again, but that is admittedly a coin toss game.  I really don't like the timing of that game for Wooster, which is why I went with Denison. 

t-3. Denison (4-3, 5-5) - Last year Denison went 4-2 in league play, this year they add Witt, so 4-3 is the prediction.  I think they'll validate that surprise win over Wooster from last year.  I like Denison's offensive experience, especially early in the season while Wooster is still trying to adjust to life without Terhune.  Denison should have little problem with Hiram and Kenyon.  Keep an eye on that game at Oberlin also...Oberlin can really sneak up on teams visiting the Savage. 

7. OWU (3-4, 3-7) - Alright, so I've got OWU beating Oberlin, Kenyon, and Hiram again this year and that's about it.  I have no idea what to expect.  Espinosa is into his third year now, so he's got experience, but presumably a whole new offense to operate.  Really, the biggest question here is what kind of juice is Watts putting into that program and is it going to turn into instant and significant improvement?  If so, they may be able to get over on Allegheny and possibly DePauw (although DePauw really put it on them last year).  No Wittenberg this year for OWU, so they catch a little bit of a break there.  This right here in the most intriguing team in the league this season. 

8. Oberlin (2-5, 3-7) - Okay, so we know that Oberlin is going to be better than Kenyon and Hiram.  This year they get OWU and Allegheny in the first half of the season, which benefits them.  Maybe they can pull a mild upset there, especially with OWU coming to Savage.  Denison needs to watch out also.  Oberlin will finish up at Wabash and home against Wittenberg which is a tough, tough way for a team with a small roster to end a season.  You know they'll fight though.  Anyway, I've only projected 2 wins for the Yeomen here, but I wouldn't be surprised if they get 3 or 4.  The schedule sets up a little better for them this year than it has the last couple of seasons. 

9. Hiram (1-6, 1-9) - I've kind of thrown my hands in the air with Hiram.  The numbers increased, they put down some nice new turf, and the results just aren't there.  I have them beating Kenyon for their lone win of the year and really beyond that it's just hard to find another win for the Terriers. 

10. Kenyon (0-7, 1-9) - Winless in league play, but I think they can beat Earlham in week 2.  Kenyon's only close game in 2011 was a three point loss to Hiram.  Beyond that, the Lords just got drilled.  There's a new coach in town in Gambier and I hope that helps, but it just seems like there is a bad vibe around that program's support right now. 

So that's what I've got....kind of mirroring the coach's poll from earlier today.  I think there's two teams clear of the pack, then a group of four that you can throw a blanket over, two more with potential to snag an upset or two, and then two that are really behind and trying to get some positive inertia. 

[Wabash Hokie]

Whoops - my math was a little off.  I didn't think I would have to use Excel to break this down.  However, now that I have done so, I am not familiar enough with this board to figure out how to post a table.  I realize there are multiple scenarios that could have played out so I ran with the first one that allowed the numbers to box.

Wabash - 9 First and 1 Third
Witt - 1 First, 8 Second, 1, Third
DePauw - 2 Second , 2 Third , 2 Fourth, 4 Fifth
Wooster - 2 Third, 3 Fourth, 2 Fifth, 2 Sixth, 1 Seventh
Allegheny - 2 Third, 4 Fourth, 1 Fifth, 1 Sixth, 1 Seventh, 1 Eighth
Denison - 2 Third, 1 Fourth, 1 Fifth, 3 Sixth, 2 Seventh, 1 Eighth
OWU - 2 Fifth, 1 Sixth, 4 Seventh, 3 Eighth
Oberlin - 3 Sixth, 2 Seventh, 5 Eighth
Hiram - 6 Ninth, 4 Tenth
Kenyon - 4 Ninth, 6 Tenth

Again, this is simply how one model breaks it out.

[bashbrother]

Great stuff Wally +K

While I think Depauw will be improved,  I can't see a miraculous recovery in a year.   Although, I do wish them the best as always 

Play Ball!

[wabco]

Forbes Mag Top 650 Colleges and Universities.  I was looking at these rankings as a counter point to straight football.  Forbes uses a formulation which assigns a weight of 32.5% to posat graduate success, 27.5% to professors evaluations and freshman to sophomore retention, 17.5% to debt, 11.25% to 4 year graduation rate and 11.25% to competitive academic awards.

NCAC ranks in the top 650 colleges and universities as follows:
#39 Kenyon
#61 Wabash
#75 Oberlin
# 79 DePauw
#102 Denison
#163 Wooster
#170 OWU
#197 Hiram
#237 Gheny
#327 Witt

NOTE:  All but Gheny and Witt rank in the Top 200.  8 out of 10.  Not bad.  Comparing that to D3 top 25 ranked football teams, only 6 og 25 rank in the top 200 and 9 out of 25 failed to obtain any ranking out of the top 650 with 5 of the top 10 ranked in the D3 football having no rank and 2 (Wabash at 61 and St Thomas at 172) ranking both in the top 200 top colleges and alsao the top 10 D3 ranked in football.   Oh ... and Earlham bailing out for the Heartland Conference (with a #229 rank) by its move improved the gene pool of both Heartland and NCAC.

Finally of the top 20 colleges and universities in the Midwest, the NCAC has 5 of the top 20:  #5 Kenyon, #7 Wabash, #11 Oberlin, #13 DePauw, and #18 Denison.  It would seem that, when picking a school AND continuing a desire to also participate in football, the NCAC is the place to be.

[Duster72]

Also noteworthy: Wabash and Wheaton are the cheapest private schools in the top 100.

[BashDad]

Maybe we've moved on, but my thoughts on the coaches poll goes something like this: holy smokes do the coaches think the conference is down this year. Depauw is not good and their appointment to third place seems like a big 'ol collective sigh and shrug by the league at large. It's funny or frustrating, depending on my mood, to read those previously posted team previews where, to a one, the coaches trumpet the "strength" of the conference. Blech. Stop it. The divide between 2nd and 3rd in that poll is an ocean's width.

With that said, here's where I'll disagree with the universe and say that Wooster is going to be way, way better this year. I think they win at least one of the ToughThree (Case, Witt, and Wabash) and maybe another. I'd put them at 8-2 and circle the game against Wabash as one that promises to have serious NCAC/Pool C implications.

The Barnes conversation is bogus. Let's fight about it.

[bashbrother]

BashDad  -  Are you drinking again? 

[smedindy]

The 'strength' of the NCAC can be proven not from the conference games, but the games outside the conference. If the NCAC can dominate the UAA and do well outside the league.

Of the non-UAA non-conference games:

DPU has a tough one against St. Olaf. Those MIAC boys can play.
Hiram probably can't hang with Westminster realistically, but stealing this game will be a big plus for the league.
Kenyon will probably lose to Bluffton, but again a win would be a big plus.
Kenyon better beat Earlham, or we're doomed. We're all doomed.
Oberlin should knock off the Quake.
Wabash should glide right past Hanover. I wonder if they'll throw 80 passes against the LG's?
Wooster should beat St. Vincent as noted previously, but struggling against a bleah PAC team won't be good for the league.
Witt and Cap is the marquee matchup again. This is the one that the pundits (and board denizens) will point to to say that the NCAC is 'strong' or not.

I can't think of why Barnes isn't the Wooster QB unless he starts fumbling from day one in camp.

[DPU3619]

I think you could have put DePauw, Allegheny, Denison, and Wooster in any order and I would have believed it.  DePauw probably receives credit for past years and the fact they went through half a dozen QBs last year.  If it were me, I probably would have voted Wooster 3rd and DePauw 4th.

[wally_wabash]

Denison is sneaky.  They've got some stout offensive skill returning, and four of their hardest five games are at home.  If DU can drum up some campus and community support and really create a strong home field atmosphere down in the bowl there, they could get some people.  They will need to be better on defense to spring one of those home upsets...Denison gave up 30 ppg in their losses last year and that's just too much against the better teams on the schedule. 

[BashDad]

BashDad  -  Are you drinking again? 

No, no. Not drinking. If I'm guilty of anything, it's wanting to sleep until November after having read that the coaches of the league collectively agree that Depauw, a miserably bad Depauw, is the third best team in the conference. The prospect of having to watch that season of football makes me want to hibernate. I can't imagine that being any fun. You know what would be fun? Something unexpected. Which, hello, kind of happens every year.

Here's why Wooster might have a surprise season.

Richard Barnes, for the first two and half games prior to his injury last year was both the best player on that team and the most resented. He looked, against BW, like a legitimate all-league wonder. His mistakes, which were blown to saturn by the Scot faithful, are coachable ("quick decisions!", "throw the ball away!", "take what they give you!") and that's a big, big deal. Why is that a big deal? Because if Barnes isn't shooting himself in the foot, he's a phenomenal talent. Like maybe the best athlete in the league kind of talent. He had a remarkably zany scramble-toss 40-50yd TD called back against Wabash last year that would have totally changed that game. Outside of maybe Shane McSweeney, you just didn't see anyone else making those kinds of plays. Anywhere.

If Barnes is half a gym-rat motivated by his backup's perceived success (Frongillo beat Kenyon and Hiram!) he'll be seeing things with a clarity this year that may have been elusive last season. It's his third year starting, you know. Third. It's his third season. Can we repeat this a hundred times all in unison? He's a grown up now. Someone go look up which quarterbacks started for three years in the past decade in the NCAC. That's a good list. Barnes is on it.

Anyway, the contrast between Barnes perceived erratic-ness and what's-his-face's mild, lukewarm "success" was enough to start all this chatter about who was better. Fine. I get it. You can't throw 6 picks in three games and expect to be warmly supported by your fans. But Frongillo is not the better quarterback, not the better athlete, and does not give Wooster a better chance to beat the better teams in the conference. With Flagg gone, every play is going to go through the Quarterback. If Richard Barnes decides to be awesome, that's scary. It's scary because lost in all of this is the fact that Wooster's D was actually pretty good last year. They held BW, Wabash and Case to 23, 19, and 24 points respectively and on the season gave up an average of 18.5. If your offense can score what it did when Richard Barnes was a FRESHMAN, you know, like, you'd be pretty good. At least better than terrible, which is absolutely what Depauw will be this year. Again.