FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[The_Bishop]

I think Wabash is angry.  An angry hard hat D is going to be a long, punishing day for the CMU offense.  An angry Wabash O is generally not good for an offense, so after a quarter or so I expect the offense to find their rhythm.

I've got Wabash taking this game by 3 TDs.  A lot of good insight on the boards this week but I can't help but think a lot of the sentiments are similar to those of Patriots fans every time there is a bump in the long road that is the NFL regular season.  Wabash lost to a tough Allegheny team last week who apparently executed its game plan beautifully.  Wabash players have a lot of pride and are likely seething this week.  I'm not betting against them.

[wally_wabash]

The last time Wabash lost a regular season game (a 2010 34-17 loss at Wittenberg) they bounced back seven days later and beat DePauw's 9-0 SCAC championship team 47-0.  So there's evidence here that this group responds well after a loss. 

If memory serves, that game at Witt had a similar feel as last weekend's game vs. Allegheny.  It was hard to get anything going on offense, Wabash's defensive calls weren't working well (tried to cover a lot in the first half, Witt took what was available underneath...tried to bring blitz pressure in the second half, Witt got bigger plays deep...it was just off), Witt also had a bye week leading into the game.  It was just one of those games where nothing seemed to work quite right.  It happens sometimes in football.  If it happens at Wabash once every two or three seasons, I think we're doing ok. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

It was just one of those games where nothing seemed to work quite right.  It happens sometimes in football.  If it happens at Wabash once every two or three seasons, I think we're doing ok.

Just want to repeat this for emphasis.  It's very tempting to look at football results as linear (i.e. Team A beat Team B by 14, and Team B beat Team C by 14, so Team A is 28 points better than Team C), but that neglects so many other factors.  As you alluded to, wally, there are myriad factors that can blend together to make a game between a "very good" team and an "average" team a close game if the "average" team brings a solid gameplan, executes it well, and plays without fear of its opponent. 

From what I observed as both a player and fan, Allegheny under Matlak is NOT always the most talented opponent and will occasionally get blown out by a superior opponent, but there will also be games where they really seem to be "up" for a particular game and meet the description above.  They're a dangerous opponent when that comes up.

As you said, wally, once every two years there might be a game where Wabash (or any top caliber program) just is a little "off" - and if that game happens to occur against one of the "above average" programs on the schedule,  on the same day that said "above average" team brings its best game, a loss may happen.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Too early in the week for game notes from either school. So, after looking at the various box scores for the past few games for each school...
.....
It has been a while since I have seen Wabash in a shootout and it may come to pass on Saturday.  I think Wabash will move the ball and score.  In my opinion, it will be Wabash's defense that will determine the outcome of the game for the Little Giants.  Thoughts?

Game notes from CMU posted:

http://www.cmu.edu/athletics/sports/football/gamenotes/2012/wabash.pdf

Re: your prediction of a shootout, I'm not sure exactly what to expect. 

CMU has posted gaudy passing numbers through four games, but to be honest it's still NOT our offense's bread-and-butter.  We've been able to do a lot of damage on the passing plays we have dialed up because we've stuck to a philosophy of pound, pound, pound on the ground - even if we're not chewing up BIG chunks of yardage - and then getting the ball to one of two very talented WR's (Kikta and Swanson) on a deep ball or in space on the perimeter.  Through four games, CMU has also executed the passing game very well in key situations (i.e. completing a big pass for a touchdown right before halftime or right after a turnover) which seems to magnify its effect on the outcome of our games.

I'm not sure whether that will hold true against Wabash, who will have the most talented defense we've yet seen (the loss to Allegheny notwithstanding).  It will be a very fascinating matchup on that side of the ball.

I'm very nervous about the CMU defense against the Wabash offense.  The dirty little secret of CMU's impressive 4-0 start is that the defense has been somewhat shaky (even if a lot of DePauw's yardage came in garbage time in the fourth quarter) and we haven't seen a QB nearly as gifted or accomplished as Belton.  So perhaps a shootout will come to pass.

I think that a true shootout favors Wabash.  I suspect that CMU would prefer something like a 21-17 game, a couple of long grind-it-out drives mixed with one or two well-timed big plays from our passing game.  Even with the big plays we've gotten from that passing game, I don't think we want to get into a 38-35 barnburner.

***********************EDIT****************************

Just copy & pasting a few thoughts on the two major crossover games that I already posted on the UAA board, since this will be of interest to folks here as well.

Case Western (2-2) vs. Wittenberg (3-0)
Carnegie Mellon (4-0) at Wabash (2-1)

Call me crazy, but I think BOTH of these matchups are very intriguing for UAA and NCAC fans.  Plus, there is the added intrigue that Wittenberg and Wabash play each other the following week, meaning that they follow these games with their biggest league game of the season.

Case Western is off to a shaky start with two losses to mediocre opponents.  On the bright side, they're just a few plays from being 4-0 and they still have plenty of experienced guys around from last year's 9-1 team, including the QB.  I just can't imagine that CWRU is actually as bad as they've looked the last two weeks. 

Wittenberg looked like world-beaters in their first two games, but time has revealed that both of those opponents (Capital and DePauw) may be down a bit from their usual standard.  Wittenberg also seems play at least one curiously bad road game per year; in 2010, an undefeated NCAC-champ Witt team beat 4-6 Oberlin, 4-6 CMU, and 5-5 Wooster by 6, 6, and 5 points, respectively.  In 2011 they beat 6-4 WashU by a field goal and lost badly to Huntingdon.

The point of all the above is that, on paper, 3-0 Witt vs. 2-2 CWRU looks like a mismatch, but I'm calling this one as my "surprisingly close game" of the week.  I'm not going so far as to predict an upset, but I wouldn't be surprised if Witt survives this one with a 20-14 win or something of that ilk.

Meanwhile, Carnegie Mellon vs. Wabash might be the most fascinating game in the North Region this week.  I've posted some detailed thoughts on the actual gameplay on the NCAC board already (edit for this post: see above), so I won't repeat it all here, but the stakes are pretty high for both teams.  CMU has a chance to legitimize its 4-0 start and stake an early claim for a Pool B playoff berth; Wabash is coming off a stunning upset loss and needs a solid win to regain momentum heading into the Wittenberg game the next week.  It's tantalizing to look at CMU's handling of Allegheny, combined with the fact that the Gators managed to upset Wabash last week, and draw the conclusion that CMU is the better team this year.  I don't buy that logic for a second (and I almost wish that Wabash had beaten Allegheny; now they'll be coming into the game pissed-off and in dire need of a victory; no chance we'll catch them looking ahead to Wittenberg).

[smedindy]

Well, let's preview the week in the NCAC, shall we?

Non-Conference (or should I say NCAC / UAA games?)

Washington U. (1-3) @ DePauw (0-3) - The New Tigers sunk to new defensive depths in the first half against Carnegie-Mellon. Whether that was a reaction to the unholy mess of the entire situation or just being beaten by a supremely talented team is anyone's guess. My gut it's a combo of both. But in the second half there was life. Justin Murray replaced the injured Drew Seaman at QB and threw four TD passes. Nikko Sansone had a good game as a receiver. Of course most of those yards were in garbage time after CMU was up 51-7. Now, DPU faces a Wash U. squad that barely beat Kenyon. The Bears were 0-3 against decent to great opponents, but the struggles against the Lords may have told more of a story than a loss to Coe. Can the New Tigers rise up and defend their home turf? Can the DPU community rally around their beleaguered players? Or will it be the same old, same old? At any rate, it'll be a good one to keep an eye on for the good of the NCAC and the DPU fan base.

Wittenberg (3-0) @ Case Western Reserve (2-2) - Both teams seemed flat Saturday night. The Old Tigers faced a hungry Wooster squad that was undone by turnovers (which of course is a recurring theme for the Scots in recent years). Had Wittenberg not been +3 on net takeaways then they probably would have been hung with a loss. The Spartans were nipped at the gun by the resurgent Battling Bishops on a long FG. Case looked decent on defense and piled up a lot of yards but were plagued by turnovers and couldn't force any giveaways. If the Spartans want to win, they can't feed the Old Tigers the ball like they did against OWU (or Wooster did against Witt). For Witt, Reed Florence needs to have a better game in the air than he did against Wooster. It was nice that the Old Tigers ran the ball well but Case will be ready for it. This should be a pretty darn decent game.

Carnegie - Mellon (4-0) @ Wabash (2-1) - History could be on the side of the LG's in a huge avenging win against the Tartans (avenging the loss last week as they've never played CMU (h/t to Wally for me being opaque)). It is Homecoming as well and crowd should be more fired up (oiled up, perhaps) than they were against Allegheny. That being said, the games aren't played in the history books - they're played in the now on the field. There are a lot of issues on offense for Wabash and seeing that Allegheny's offensive line got the D-3 team of the week honors probably says something about Wabash's defensive effort last Saturday as well. I have no doubt that the LG's will respond. I also have no doubt that the Tartans are talented and will give Wabash a test. I don't know if C-M has ever played in an atmosphere like they will encounter (Homecoming and all) on Saturday and that may be a difference as well. I look for a game in the 20's on both sides and some hard hitting action.

NCAC Games:

Wooster (0-1, 1-2) @ Denison (1-1, 1-2) - The Scots have to be bitterly disappointed that they couldn't put away Wittenberg on Saturday night. The game was there for the taking if the ball didn't keep hitting the ground. Will they rise up against the Big Red? Denison cruised past Hiram Saturday behind their reliable pair of Paulus and Fioroni. Wooster held Witt's passing game in check but had no answer for the run. The key will be how well Fioroni runs against the Scots and if Barnes, et. al. can stop turning the ball over.

Oberlin (0-1, 1-2) @ Allegheny (1-0, 2-1) - If the same Gators team shows up Saturday that played against Wabash, the Yeomen won't really have much of a change. But as we know Allegheny can be enigmatic and not rise up against certain opponents. Oberlin was worn down by the Maroons Saturday, which will be a standard theme considering their lack of numbers. They'll have to get out to a lead and hold on and get better play from Poggiali. What helps the Yeomen is that the Gators won't be in track-meet mode. This could be intriguing if Oberlin scores quickly.

Hiram (0-2, 0-4) @ Ohio Wesleyan (1-0, 3-0) - The Bishops are sky-high after their big win over Case, and with good reason. But now, the dreaded 'trap' game appears on the schedule. The Terriers aren't going to scare anyone, and will have issues stopping Espinosa and company. But OWU can't be complacent - they have to treat every game as a struggle in order to keep improving.

[wally_wabash]

Carnegie - Mellon (4-0) @ Wabash (2-1) - History could be on the side of the LG's in a huge revenge win against the Tartans.

Am I missing something?  This is the first game between Wabash and CMU.

[smedindy]

I meant revenge as in avenging last weeks game. I'll tweak.

[BashBacker#16]

I am definitely jacked to see how Wabash responds after last week.  Like others have said I think we'll see the "real" Little Giant team this weekend.  I think the Hodges brothers against the CMU receivers will be a key matchup and hopefully allow the Bash D to bring heat and pressure all day.

I've heard rumblings about the tailgate lot being policed a bit more than normal with regards to cars being allowed - anyone see or hear that last weekend? 

I won't jinx us again and say how many homecoming games Wabash has won in a row...   

Bring it:  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BpfP1VYhdro

WAF

[Li'l Giant]

I won't jinx us again and say how many homecoming games Wabash has won in a row...   

Ugh. I still remember that last loss. . .

[bashbrother]

Weekly Wabash Release -

http://sports.wabash.edu/documents/2012/9/26/ReleaseSept262012.pdf?id=86

[wallyworld12]

Hopefully the rain clears off for a fun Homecoming Weekend at Wabash. Best of luck to the freshmen today as they participate in the annual rite of passage, Chapel Sing!

Excited to see how the floats look on Saturday morning, wonder what creative liberties the pledge classes with take with "Tartans"? Will we see Scottish terriers or a plaid-pattern?

[wally_wabash]

Wabash is riding a gargantuan Homecoming win streak.  16 games.  Most of those 16 opponents have been stereotypical Homecoming fodder.  But there was one year when the streak was very much in jeopardy.  Let us flash back to 2003.  Wabash was 2-2 going into the Homecoming game against Wittenberg (a rematch of both the best NCAC game in the last decade and a 2002 second round playoff game).  Wabash was coming in to this game fresh off of an elements-affected close loss to Allegheny.  You see where this is going.  Wabash, amid a flurry of questions about the team's offense, dropped a 41-14 whooping on Wittenberg in that Homecoming game.  So when does a game in 2003 matter in 2012*?  When I need it to make a point.  The point is: we've totally got this.   

*We will conveniently ignore the rest of that history-repeating-itself stuff that ends with Allegheny running the table to win the NCAC and Wabash missing the playoffs because that just isn't nearly as inspiring

[smedindy]

History never repeats, though.

Unless it does.

For me I can't rely on the unseen hand of the Wabash God taking us through the C-M game. We need to play better in all aspects of the game against the Tartans.

[ExTartanPlayer]

LOL at Wally's small-size-font footnote.  That slays me.

I wouldn't be surprised by anything from a Wabash blowout to CMU in a close one.  I do know that this is the first time I've been really excited about a CMU game since I graduated; while Wabash has played its share of big games over the years, one can also argue that this is very important from a momentum standpoint after such a puzzling loss last week.  Should be a pair of "desperate" teams at the game on Saturday.

[bashbrother]

That was an amazing game.... one of my favorite moments at Hollett. 

We will see a different Little Giant team this weekend,  I am sure this wasn't the friendliest week of practice for the players as I am sure reviewing the film of the Allegheny game was uncomfortable for all that were involved.   It was apparent from watching the game again last night, ( http://youtu.be/rssVLmxN7h4 ) we got caught unfocused and maybe even a little out-coached last Saturday.... 

this will NOT happen tomorrow.  We have the horses to beat CMU...and we will.