FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[The_Bishop]

Nice write-up on OWU from the Dispatch:

http://buckeyextra.dispatch.com/content/stories/2012/10/02/fbc-ohio-insider-10-2-art-gkcjj03s-1.html

[wally_wabash]

Some interesting series notes for Wabash/Witt:

Witt leads the series overall 8-7
Wabash leads the series 7-6 since joining the NCAC
The regular season series since Wabash joined the NCAC is 6-6
The home team is 10-5 in the series

[BashBacker#16]

Just for kicks I wanted to look at OWU's wins so far:

Denison is 2-2 (includes a win over Hiram)
Oberlin is 1-3 (includes a win over Earlham - a woeful 0-5 team who's given up 196 points in 5 games!)
Case is 2-3 (includes a win over Hiram)
Hiram is 0-5

A soft, combined record of 5-13

Let's see what the Bishops do with the 2nd half of their schedule and I would officially start that this Saturday against DePauw.

[nike]

I am sure OWU folks will take a 4-0 start over the 0-4 starts in years gone by.  Will DePauw be a good measuring stick for the Bishops? 
Wife said no way I will be in Springfield Saturday.  Depending on the conference race, may have to make the trip to Crawfordsville when the Scots go up there.

[wally_wabash]

So far, OWU's schedule is t-172 in D3 based on the OWP of teams played so far.  So no, they haven't played a rugged schedule, but to nike's point, I think the important thing for OWU is that they've had a chance to figure out how to win games, gain some positive inertia and, most importantly, confidence as they get into their backloaded schedule.  And without Wittenberg on their schedule this year, OWU may be just one upset win away from playing for a league championship in November. 

Just for fun, some other schedule rankings around the league so far, based on OWP...

- Wabash t-11
- DePauw t-27
- Allegheny t-39
- Wooster t-96
- Denison t-121
- Oberlin t-121
- Hiram t-140
- Witt t-161
- Kenyon 212 (which is last on the list)

[ExTartanPlayer]

*Disclaimer up front for Bash-Backer #16: Yes, this post draws on my playing career, but it is highly relevant in this case.  Take a journey down memory lane with me and you'll see why.

Imagine that you're a player on Carnegie Mellon's team in the fall of 2006.  You're coming off a disappointing 5-5 season, but a number of experienced players return and there's optimism that this season might be better than the last.  The season opens with an ugly, ugly 27-6 win against Hiram in the rain, an awful team that would ultimately would give up 50+ points several times and finish the season 0-10.  In week 2, you post a 28-0 win over Grove City, a mediocre team that notched just one win before the calendar flipped to November.  In week 3, you post a 33-6 victory over a Westminster team that was beaten 35-10 by Allegheny the week before.  In week 4, you win 34-14 against a Franklin & Marshall team headed for a 3-7 season.  And in week 5, the last before a midseason bye, you beat a Colorado College team that would drop the program two or three years later.

That's a 5-0 start against very, very mediocre opposition.  Not a single opponent finished the year with more than three wins.  And yet, it gave us a lot of confidence going into the tougher part of our schedule (which admittedly didn't feature anyone as tough as 2012 OWU's future opponents such as 2012 Wabash or 2012 Carnegie Mellon).  Much as wally just described, though: we figured out how to win some games, had positive inertia, and from that point forward we went into every game EXPECTING to win (which was definitely not the case the year before).  While it seems a little bit...less than manly, I'll admit that there's some merit to a mediocre program playing a few softies in the early part of the schedule because there's something magical about being 3-0, 4-0, 5-0 and getting your team to believe that you really ARE good.  It makes a difference in those tossup games later in the season because you start to believe that you are supposed to win.

Apologies for using "my" experience here.  Please substitute your more recent and relevant example of choice if you can relate a similar experience of a team coming off a .500-type season that opened the season with four wins against softball competition, which ultimately springboarded the team to their best season in the past decade.  I'll wait.

[TitanPride]

So far, OWU's schedule is t-172 in D3 based on the OWP of teams played so far.  So no, they haven't played a rugged schedule, but to nike's point, I think the important thing for OWU is that they've had a chance to figure out how to win games, gain some positive inertia and, most importantly, confidence as they get into their backloaded schedule.  And without Wittenberg on their schedule this year, OWU may be just one upset win away from playing for a league championship in November. 

Just for fun, some other schedule rankings around the league so far, based on OWP...

- Wabash t-11
- DePauw t-27
- Allegheny t-39
- Wooster t-96
- Denison t-121
- Oberlin t-121
- Hiram t-140
- Witt t-161
- Kenyon 212 (which is last on the list)

Hey Wally -- where do you find these stats? 

[wally_wabash]

Hey Wally -- where do you find these stats?

NCAA stats page, which is completely awesome.  That page is also linked in the "News" pulldown on the front page of d3football.com.

[wally_wabash]

Here's a little statistical comparison...

Stat	Wabash	Nat'l Rank	Witt	Nat'l Rank
RushO	167.50	97	156.50	106
PassO	216.25	94	253.25	54
TotalO	383.75	84	409.75	65
ScoringO	34.75	38	31.75	62
RushD	114.75	67	123.50	76
PassEff.D	97.70	33	89.55	12
TotalD	324.25	86	259.00	24
ScoringD	15.50	39	12.00	15
NetPunting	30.18	164	31.00	143
PuntRet	9.25	86	7.54	122
KORet	24.00	32	23.45	40
TOMargin	2.25	5	2.00	t-11
PassD	209.50	146	135.50	20
PassEff	144.78	50	157.23	31
Sacks	3.25	25	1.75	t-138
TFL	9.50	12	5.75	153
SacksAgainst	2.25	t-142	0.50	10

[nike]

OWU had over 3000 people there Saturday!!!  Against Hiram.
It certainly appears that at this early date, the school did an excellent job in their coaching search.
You Bishop backers on here have to be thrilled.  The last number of years, since the 2005 team when the Osbornes were freshmen at 7-3 for the year, by this time in the season the Bishops were already out of it.
So congrats.
Wooster not looking too good right now.  Things just are not clikcking.  Thought they would be better offensively.  To be honest, Barnes does not really look any better or sharper than last year when he did play.
Belton has gotten better every year.  But it is obvious that Belton has much more help in skill positions and the O line.
A tough year so far.

[BashBacker#16]

Ex-Tartan,

I agree with your and Wally's comments about gaining confidence, etc. - I'm just pointing out that we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves here and assume they are "back."  There is a lot of football to be played.  As easy as Wally says they could be 1 upset away from playing for a league championship, they could also finish 5-5. 

Those Wabash/Witt comparisons are pretty scary with regards to saying "on paper" these two teams look very evenly matched.  I'm expecting within a touchdown either way and it just might be a field goal at the wire...  I'm going to make another prediction here with regards to personnel.  Buresh and Akinribade have gotten a lot of the early pub (rightfully so) as part of the Wabash LB corps, I predict that Nate Scola leads that group on Saturday - maybe a key strip, a big hit, a big sack, etc.

WAF

[ExTartanPlayer]

Ex-Tartan,

I agree with your and Wally's comments about gaining confidence, etc. - I'm just pointing out that we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves here and assume they are "back."  There is a lot of football to be played.  As easy as Wally says they could be 1 upset away from playing for a league championship, they could also finish 5-5. 

Oh, I do agree.  I don't remember if I posted it here or on the UAA board, but if you compare the H2H results for OWU from this season to last year, the only team they've beaten this year that they lost to last year is Case Western.  So they might not be that much better than last year - however, I do think the psychological value of winning those games on the front end will give them a better chance to win those games on the back end.  You're right that they could end up anywhere from 5-5 to 9-1 at this point, probably.

[bashbrother]

The past two years, Witt has had a bye week (extra week of preparation) for Wabash and went 1-1 in those games.   This year, they do not and you would have to think that this is a positive for Wabash heading into this year's game... or does that really matter with the teams knowing so much about each other?  Thoughts/comments?

Another factor is that Wabash realizes that they most likely cannot drop another conference game and win the conference.  Thus, every conference game is the "Conference championship" to them.  How does this impact things?

[wally_wabash]

The past two years, Witt has had a bye week (extra week of preparation) for Wabash and went 1-1 in those games.   This year, they do not and you would have to think that this is a positive for Wabash heading into this year's game... or does that really matter with the teams knowing so much about each other?  Thoughts/comments?

Another factor is that Wabash realizes that they most likely cannot drop another conference game and win the conference.  Thus, every conference game is the "Conference championship" to them.  How does this impact things?

I don't think that the lack of a bye week for Witt is necessarily an advantage for Wabash.  I think the main thing there is that there isn't an advantage for Wittenberg. 

Wabash no doubt knows that every game is a must win game thanks to the Gators.  Wittenberg hasn't been head slapped with that reality per se, but if any game on the schedule has their full and undivided attention, it is this one.  Wabash can not lose another conference game, period.  Wittenberg can not lose this conference game, period.  They will no doubt have every bit the urgency that Wabash will this week.  It's going to be intense this week. 

[wallyworld12]

Two teams are very evenly matched, which adds to the excitement for Saturday's game. Witt rolled over opponents in earlier games this season, but has been less productive in games against Wooster and CWRU.

Their defense has been stellar all season long. No reason to think that won't be the case this week.

Low scoring affair? Thinking something along the lines of Wabash 17 Witt 14 or something like that.

Any reason to think it will be an offensive shootout between Belton and Florence? Another good matchup to watch, after the Springfield News-Sun declared Florence to be the "second-best quarterback in the conference" when he was backing up Zoeller last season...