FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[sigma one]

Many will or have recognized this pattern as a significant part of the reason for a Wabash win yesterday, and for such a close game in the end (see 2nd half).  Witt's drives beginning on--1st Half:  Witt 15 (interception), Wit 20 (punt), Wit 10 (punt), Wit 13 (punt), Wit 25 (punt), Wit 30 (13 plays, FG). (4 of 5 inside the Wit 25.)  2nd Half:  KO return, fumble, Wab recover; Wit 10 ( Florence 72 yd. run, TD), WAB 2 (blocked punt, TD), Wit 31 (punt), Wit 35 (punt), Wab 37 (recovered fumble, TD).  Then 9:32 and they never get the ball back.
     Only one "drive" of consequence all day, and that with the long run.  Another TD possession started at the Wab 2, the final TD possession at the Wab 37.  The almost 70-yard drive at the end of the first half was impressive, but resulted in a field goal, which has caused some debate.  (For me, it's still the first half; you get the ball to start the 2nd half; take the sure points.) I know that games between two good teams are almost always won off mistakes--and lost.  But to bury Wit deep in their own end  was key, and particularly for multiple possessions through most of the first half on their Homecoming when they come out with emotion in front of an eager crowd, knowing that they will seldom get points on long drives off the Wab D, which was playing with its own set of emotions, readiness, and, yes, probably anxiety, was key.  I could look at the Wabash possessions as well, but the last one is really the one that matters.   

[BashDad]

The Drive^tm

[Li'l Giant]

(For me, it's still the first half; you get the ball to start the 2nd half; take the sure points.)

That was my thought as well. I think with, post FG, a 10 point deficit and getting the ball to start the 3rd it was a reasonable call.

The Drive^tm

I think they're still sensitive about that phrase in Ohio. 

In all seriousness though, how frustrating must that last drive have been for Witt to see the clock melting away like that and not be able to stop it.

And that 4th down call on that drive? My thought went immediately to the film version of Glengarry Glen Ross.

[bashbrother]

Thought I would take a look at the race for the NCAC Championship at the halfway point.

OWU -  3-0   (Kenyon,  Wabash, @ Gheny, Wooster)
Allegheny  2-0  (Depauw, Witt, @ Kenyon, OWU, @Hiram)  (Win over Wabash)
Kenyon -  2-0  (@OWU, @Depauw, Gheny, @Wooster, Denison)
Wabash - 2-1 (Wooster,  @OWU, Oberlin, Bell Game)  (Win over Witt)
Witt -  2-1  (@Gheny, @ Denison, Hiram, @Oberlin)  (Loss to Wabash)

My prediction on how these current front-runners end up when the smoke clears:

Wabash -  6-1
Witt -   6-1 (Loss to Wabash)
OWU -  6-1 (Loss to Wabash)
Allegheny - 5-2 (Losses to Witt & OWU) (Depauw has a shot at a win as well)
Kenyon -  2-5 (Losses to OWU, Depauw, Gheny, Wooster, Denison)

[BashDad]

The Drive^tm

I think they're still sensitive about that phrase in Ohio. 

In all seriousness though, how frustrating must that last drive have been for Witt to see the clock melting away like that and not be able to stop it.

And that 4th down call on that drive? My thought went immediately to the film version of Glengarry Glen Ross.

Always. Be. Closing.

[BashDad]

My prediction on how the conference ends up when the smoke clears:

Wabash -  6-1
Witt -   6-1 (Loss to Wabash)
OWU -  6-1 (Loss to Wabash)
Allegheny - 5-2 (Losses to Witt & OWU)
Kenyon -  2-5 (Losses to OWU, Depauw, Gheny, Wooster, Denison)

Which would send OWU as the NCAC rep to the playoffs.

[bashbrother]

My prediction on how the conference ends up when the smoke clears:

Wabash -  6-1
Witt -   6-1 (Loss to Wabash)
OWU -  6-1 (Loss to Wabash)
Allegheny - 5-2 (Losses to Witt & OWU)
Kenyon -  2-5 (Losses to OWU, Depauw, Gheny, Wooster, Denison)

Which would send OWU as the NCAC rep to the playoffs.

I don't think so,  I believe the head-to-head loss to Wabash would send Wabash, (may be wrong)  Witt & OWU would get Pool C consideration.  The key for Wabash is to obviously win out and for Gheny to lose twice.

A bunch of football to be played though...

[wally_wabash]

My prediction on how the conference ends up when the smoke clears:

Wabash -  6-1
Witt -   6-1 (Loss to Wabash)
OWU -  6-1 (Loss to Wabash)
Allegheny - 5-2 (Losses to Witt & OWU)
Kenyon -  2-5 (Losses to OWU, Depauw, Gheny, Wooster, Denison)

Which would send OWU as the NCAC rep to the playoffs.

I don't think so,  I believe the head-to-head loss to Wabash would send Wabash, (may be wrong)  Witt & OWU would get Pool C consideration.  The key for Wabash is to obviously win out and for Gheny to lose twice.

A bunch of football to be played though...

In the Wabash/Witt/OWU 6-1 scenario, Wabash wins the playoff spot by having beaten both Witt and OWU. 

It gets much more hairy if Wabash/Witt/Allegheny finish 6-1.  I think Wabash wins that tiebreak but I'm not 100% sure.  Whether Wabash wins that tiebreak or not may not matter, because 9-1 Wabash ought to look pretty good to a selection committee. 

[BashDad]

Oops. Yes. You're right re: OWU. Wouldn't Gheny go though, should they finish with only a single conference loss, since they're the program that has been out of the playoffs for the longest amount of time?

[sigma one]

I think you are correct, BashDad.  Allegheny would go.

The Drive.     The First Tip (. . ."Colorado Red"----someone will remember the complete play call that went on all the tee shirts---the "Monon Miracle"); the Second Tip, 29-28.     The knock away in the end zone v. Franklin?    "I can make it coach.  I will not fail you." v. DePauw?     The Field Goal, v Wit, 13-10?     Others?  All these but the First Tip in the last decade.  Could that play have been that long ago (2001)!  What long memories we have.   

[formerd3db]

aueagle and other OWU colleagues:

Wow, quite a turnaround so far for your OWU.  Hopefully, they can continue the strong play, although obviously as one of the previous posters mentioned, the Wabash game will be a tough challenge, yet I suppose they all will be.  Nonetheless, nice to see some good attendance figures for Selby as has occurred so far for the home games OWU has had.  At least your team has done better than my Hope has so far this season. Anyway, good luck the rest of the way.  I'll be watching.

[The_Bishop]

^^Thank you, sir.  Despite the soft schedule the first half of the season, the Bishops have found ways to win each game.  The competition gets ratcheted up significantly the next few weeks culminating in the 10/27 showdown with the team that has been the class of the NCAC for the past decade.  I look at this matchup as the "closing the gap" game to provide the best measure of how far the Bishops have come in regaining their place as a top-tier team in the league.  Wabash has had OWU's number and have snuffed them out in particular at Selby in recent years, but with a packed house and a few breaks here and there, you never know.

[bashbrother]

New Top 25 out.... Wabash up to 15th.   

http://www.d3football.com/top25/2012/week6

Is it just me,  or does it seem like there is a greater number of one loss teams in the Top 25 for this time in the season.  More parity in D3 Football?  Scheduling?

[smedindy]

Oh, sure, rain on my 'Kenyon as NCAC Champs Fear Mongering" with facts and logic.

But I doubt they'll be 2-5. They're not playing Wabash and Witt - and every other NCAC team has looked dreadful at times. (Except OWU but their close wins against Denison and DPU aren't exactly saying they'll monkeystomp Kenyon).

[sigma one]

bashdad, I continue to have too much free time.  You are right.  This year, of the Top 25 (26 actually with a tie at #25) in Week 6, 14 have at least one loss, and Franklin has two.  Of those, 9 have been beaten by other teams currently in the 25:   Wesley by Mary H-Baylor, Salisbury by Wesley, Cal Lutheran by Linfield, St J. Fisher by Salisbury, Platteville by WhiteH2O, Birmingham So by Wesley, Louisiana College by Wesley, Huntingdon by Birmingham So, Franklin by Mount.  Wesley has taken down 3 in the group and themselves beaten by MHB.  Interestlingly, Wesley has 4 games remaining, three of them against teams not in DIII.  What's the rule for the playoffs?
     Of the others:  WhiteH2O lost to Buff St (#80 in the DIIIfootball pre-season rankings); North Central lost to LaCrosse (#71); Wabash to Allegheny (#105); Wheaton to Albion (#51); Rowan to Merrimack (nonD3); and Franklin to Butler, nonD3 in whatever that non-scholarship league is called) in addition to Mount.
     This year's 14 teams compared to recent year's past in the Week 6 poll:  2011 (11); 2010 (6); 2009 (9, one of them with 2 losses)); 2008 (8); 2007 (12, one of them with 2 losses).
     Apparently, this year more of the top teams have scheduled one another early, although it would take more digging to confirm this.