FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[The_Bishop]

If if's and but's were candy and nuts . . .

[nike]

Do any Bishop backers know what things are like on campus?  Have the students and campus community gotten into what the team is doing so far this year?  I would hope so. It may take something like the Wabash game to get them excited. I trust it will.

[The_Bishop]

I wish I did.  I know a handful of guys I played with who are planning on a trip to Selby on 10/27.  As far as the student body goes, I would hope that there is some electricity in the air for what the Bishops have done thus far this season.  The men's soccer team is down a notch, and congrats to DePauw for recently ending OWU's regular season conference win streak that dated back to 2007. 

I know you're fired up for a great scene at Selby in a couple weeks, Nike, and I'm certain you are going to get it.  Having the Wabash faithful on the visitors' side after they down a few Zimas during the pregame tailgater will set the stage for a great day.  (JK about the Zima remark, guys.) 

[BashDad]

Hey, what happened to the Journal Review's coverage of Wabash Football? It's been weeks since they last published anything but a release from the school itself.

Here's my search: http://www.journalreview.com/search/?q=wabash+football+&t=article&l=10&d=&date-selector=on&d1=09%2F1%2F2012&d2=10%2F16%2F2012&s=&sd=desc&f=html

[smedindy]

I think they've been short staffed. The Paper of Montgomery County has a reporter at the home games. From what I know (here in FL) that the sports editor jobs have been turning over at both places over the past months.

[wally_wabash]

Excitement surrounding OWU/CMU aside (I'll have more to say on this game after I make picks on Wednesday), the biggest game of the week in the NCAC is Witt/Allegheny.  If Allegheny wins, Wittenberg is eliminated from pretty much everything.  It also puts Allegheny in a very good position to wrap up this AQ if they can beat OWU (there is still a game against Kenyon in there for AC also, but I'm not sure I buy Kenyon beating AC in a game that means everything for AC).  But if the Gators beat Witt and lose to OWU and OWU loses to Wabash, we wind up with a three way Wabash/Allegheny/OWU tiebreak that I can't sort out without help. 

For Wittenberg, this is the game that makes or breaks their 9-win season.  They don't have competition left that will beat them beyond this week.  I'll be scoreboard watching on Saturday...this is a huge game with implications for a lot of teams. 

[nike]

Excitement surrounding OWU/CMU aside (I'll have more to say on this game after I make picks on Wednesday), the biggest game of the week in the NCAC is Witt/Allegheny.  If Allegheny wins, Wittenberg is eliminated from pretty much everything.  It also puts Allegheny in a very good position to wrap up this AQ if they can beat OWU (there is still a game against Kenyon in there for AC also, but I'm not sure I buy Kenyon beating AC in a game that means everything for AC).  But if the Gators beat Witt and lose to OWU and OWU loses to Wabash, we wind up with a three way Wabash/Allegheny/OWU tiebreak that I can't sort out without help. 

For Wittenberg, this is the game that makes or breaks their 9-win season.  They don't have competition left that will beat them beyond this week.  I'll be scoreboard watching on Saturday...this is a huge game with implications for a lot of teams. 

Agreed.
I think the focus has been on OWU because they have come so far in such a short period of time.  If there were any Allegheny people on this board, there would be a lot more talk about what Gheny has done this year.
But there are not, at least that I am aware of.
From everything I have read, do not think that Allegheny will beat Witt.  Certainly they could, but don't think they will. 
Saw where Wabash said Belton had a mild concussion.  So what do they do this week?  Play him a little to keep him sharp for next week and generate some early offense, or keep him out completely to insure his health for OWU on the 27th?
Tricky decision for coaching staff.  Have to win this Saturday--period!

[smedindy]

Gheny / OWU / Wabash would come first down to power rankings of opponents, right? Who did you beat? Since OWU missed Witt, that would eliminate them (I think) and leave Gheny and Wabash head to head, which we all knows what happens there.

Of course, the NCAC may have adjusted that piece of it.

Next year, we won't have to worry about that bit of arcana with a full-round robin.

If they do the 'Rose Bowl" rule with a three-way, OWU goes since Wabash won the league last year and Gheny in 2003.

[BashDad]

I think the focus has been on OWU because they have come so far in such a short period of time.

Or because folks just keep saying they have.

[firstdown]

Nike 

It's not that tricky a decision about Chase Belton, if the coaching staff and the medical staff don't feel that he's ready, he won't play.  Andy Walsh did a fine job last week and he's up to the task if needed. 

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Gheny / OWU / Wabash would come first down to power rankings of opponents, right? Who did you beat? Since OWU missed Witt, that would eliminate them (I think) and leave Gheny and Wabash head to head, which we all knows what happens there.

Of course, the NCAC may have adjusted that piece of it.

Next year, we won't have to worry about that bit of arcana with a full-round robin.

If they do the 'Rose Bowl" rule with a three-way, OWU goes since Wabash won the league last year and Gheny in 2003.

Be glad it is not Baseball where last years tie was decided by a coin flip. Wooster tied Allegheny for the last spot in the tournament and got in on a coin flip. Of course they still won the whole thing once they got in. They probably played there best baseball of the year in that tournament.

[wally_wabash]

Gheny / OWU / Wabash would come first down to power rankings of opponents, right? Who did you beat? Since OWU missed Witt, that would eliminate them (I think) and leave Gheny and Wabash head to head, which we all knows what happens there.

Of course, the NCAC may have adjusted that piece of it.

Next year, we won't have to worry about that bit of arcana with a full-round robin.

If they do the 'Rose Bowl" rule with a three-way, OWU goes since Wabash won the league last year and Gheny in 2003.

This really ought to be published somewhere so that we don't have to guess...maybe in a media guide, maybe just as a direct link on the league website.  Tiebreak rules are not state secrets...throw us a bone. 

That said, here's what I'm pulling from the googles...this comes from The Daily Record in 2010, which is as recent a rundown of these rules as I can find. 

1- H2H
2- Results vs. other NCAC opponents in descending order (I believe this has to be amongst common opponents)
3- Fewest conference away losses
4- Highest preseason power ranking
5- Team with the longest conference winning streak

The article doesn't go beyond that, but I think there is eventually a Rose Bowl rule, which is patently absurd when deciding who should be in a championship tournament.  Bowl games are rewards and don't really count for much of anything...spread that love around all you want.  But when the national championship is on the line, kindly table the kumbaya and save it for exhibitions.  I think we can settle the debate here with this information. 

In a Gheny/OWU/Wabash 6-1 league record scenario which must assume AC beats Witt and OWU beats AC and Wabash beats OWU:
1- H2Hs are a wash; we move on
2- As noted, I believe opponents common to all three teams are the only opponents that can be considered.  Ergo, nobody lost to anybody else in the league that all three of these teams played.  We move on.
3- Wabash: 0 away losses, OWU: 0 away losses, Allegheny: 0 away losses (strangely, each team loses on their home field here).  We move on.
4- Highest preseason power ranking.  Are they still using a power ranking?  I assume so, but I have no idea which years are being used since this year's schedule was figured and refigured over the last couple of years.  What I do know is that no matter what two years from relatively recent history they are using, Wabash will have had a better record than OWU or Allegheny.  There's your winner.  What if there is no power ranking?  Just for fun, we'll move on. 
5- Wabash, having lost their first league game will have ripped off six in a row wins here.  AC will have won one league game in a row, OWU 2 in a row. 

Ta da. 

Using these same rules, we may as well go through the AC/Witt/Wabash scenario as well, which assumes a Witt win over AC and OWU losses to both AC and Wabash:
1- H2H is a wash so we move on
2- Again, nobody lost to anybody that everybody played.  We move on. 
3- Again, oddly, every team lost at home and all will have 0 conference away losses.  We move on.
4- This is where it gets dicey, if there is even a power ranking in play.  Let's say that there is.  Allegheny is going to be out.  So the question becomes does Witt have a power ranking advantage over Wabash, or vice versa, or is there a tie.  Let's check it out:

Years	Wabash	Witt
10-11	11-1	11-1
09-10	12-1	12-1
08-09	14-0	10-4
07-08	14-0	10-4
06-07	13-1	12-2

2009-2010 seems reasonable, doesn't it?  I think this is a tie, but who really knows.  What we do know is that Wabash is either a clear winner on this tiebreak or Allegheny is a clear loser, which sends Wabash and Witt back to the top of the tiebreak list and Wabash beat Witt H2H.  Done.  If there are no power rankings, then we move on:
5- Again, Wabash wins by having won 6 league games in a row while Witt and Allegheny will have not won 6 league games in a row. 

Unless there is a completely different set of rules that were developed last season and we don't know about, this should be how these three way tiebreaks go down. 

[cave2bens]

At least a pre-game coin flip allows for deferred choice?    

As OWU, through collective wisdom of NCAC schedulers, misses out on the Old Tigers this year, would really like to see Bishops beat up on both 'Gheny and CMU.  Let the 27th be for all the marbles with no letdowns in following weeks by either of the principals (specially on the 10th of November).  Though an admirer of Wally's research and scenario crunching, this just seems a linear solution and clear of meddling minds   



 

[BashDad]

Wow, Wally. I wish we could have all of that confirmed. Thanks for scavenging...

[smedindy]

A preseason power ranking and a conference winning streak? Rewarding a team for their work in season's past? Rewarding a team that got beat early versus getting beat late, when the schedule probably dictated the early vs. late beating?

If that makes Wabash the "A", hooray, but realistically that's no way to run a railroad. It should be about this season and other factors other than when you happen to play a certain opponent.

If I'm Wabash I ask to open the conference season with Witt and close it out with Oberlin, Keynon and Hiram before DPU.

The power ranking thing strikes me as bad. Think if Whitewater loses to Oshkosh. They're not dominating in SOS (150th) and will have two losses (only one in region, but still that loss to Buffalo State is worse in retrospect and a bad out-of-region loss kept CWRU out last year) and only one elite win in Platteville. Do they get a 'pass' for 2012 because of what they have done in the past, thereby screwing a team with only one loss and much better criteria? The power ranking thing is the same for me.