FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

A preseason power ranking and a conference winning streak? Rewarding a team for their work in season's past? Rewarding a team that got beat early versus getting beat late, when the schedule probably dictated the early vs. late beating?

If that makes Wabash the "A", hooray, but realistically that's no way to run a railroad. It should be about this season and other factors other than when you happen to play a certain opponent.

Yep, it's pretty awful.  I don't know what a better way to do it is though.  Do you use overall record and possibly punish a team for having played a challenging non-league schedule?  That doesn't seem fair.  Do you use MOV?  That's not going to be pretty either.  Do you introduce some kind of SOS metric?  It isn't trivial.  I really don't know what the best way to solve a three way tie is or that there is an equitable way to do it. 

I think it's worth noting that we trot this three-way tiebreak out every year (or very nearly every year) and there hasn't been a three-way tie in this league since 1997.  It seems like we're steering directly into that iceberg this year one way or another, but usually this winds up sorting itself out pretty cleanly...or shall I say linearlly, cave? 

[smedindy]

It may get better (or worse) next year, but perhaps criteria #4 could be 'did you win your non conference game' and #5 could be 'what was the SOS of that opponent'.

I think adding component #5 would prevent teams from scheduling cream puffs, otherwise the entire NCAC would fight over Wilmington and Earlham.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Think if Whitewater loses to Oshkosh. They're not dominating in SOS (150th) and will have two losses (only one in region, but still that loss to Buffalo State is worse in retrospect and a bad out-of-region loss kept CWRU out last year) and only one elite win in Platteville.

I know that a few of us are quite curious to see what would happen if Oshkosh beats UWW.  Will the selection committee treat UWW like any other 8-2 team with a bad non-conference loss, or will they grandfather UWW into the field based on the fact that they're three-time defending champions?

I favor the former, but I will still be curious to see what happens if this comes to pass.  I think recent history should matter when you're seeding teams (i.e. a 10-0 defending national champion should be awarded the #1 seed regardless of their SOS metric), but not to give an 8-2 defending champion a free pass for a truly awful non-conference loss and slide them into the field.  I realize the inconsistency of that position, but I really feel like they are different situations.  Thoughts?

Now that I wrote this, UWW will probably beat UW-O by 30, rendering the entire post moot.

[BashBacker#16]

The_Bishop,

Maybe Wabco got you fired up but where did the Zima comment come from??  That's funny dude - Wabash guys are so Zima....NOT!  You obviously are clueless what kind of kid goes to Wabash.  I don't echo all of the other love posters saying "it's so great to see OWU rising," etc.  The downward spiral will start this Saturday.  Are they better?  Yes.  Are they a lot better?  We don't know.  As we've said, they haven't beat anyone and some of the bad teams they have played, they've barely squeeked out a win.  Espinoza can sling it against the Kenyon's, Oberlin's, Hiram's...can he against the upper half of the league?

Lastly, just an honest question:  since you have them going 9-1, what if the 1 loss is something like 45-14?  Does that give them a pool C? 

Tough sledding starts this Saturday...we'll see.

Zima?  Hahahahahaha.  Good one.

[Wabash Hokie]

The_Bishop,

Maybe Wabco got you fired up but where did the Zima comment come from??  That's funny dude - Wabash guys are so Zima....NOT!  You obviously are clueless what kind of kid goes to Wabash.  I don't echo all of the other love posters saying "it's so great to see OWU rising," etc.  The downward spiral will start this Saturday.  Are they better?  Yes.  Are they a lot better?  We don't know.  As we've said, they haven't beat anyone and some of the bad teams they have played, they've barely squeeked out a win.  Espinoza can sling it against the Kenyon's, Oberlin's, Hiram's...can he against the upper half of the league?

Lastly, just an honest question:  since you have them going 9-1, what if the 1 loss is something like 45-14?  Does that give them a pool C? 

Tough sledding starts this Saturday...we'll see.

Zima?  Hahahahahaha.  Good one.

BashBacker - Check out The Bishop's post again - he noted the Zima quip with a JK (just kidding).   He was just giving the finger to Wabco for getting into his face.  The best way to insult a Wabash guy?  Accuse him of acting like a Dannie.

Good one Bishop.

But the fun looks to end on Saturday for OWU in the battle of the TLAs (three letter acronyms). While the Bishops have improved, CMU represents a significant step in competition.  Looking forward to the game on Saturday.

[wally_wabash]

Lastly, just an honest question:  since you have them going 9-1, what if the 1 loss is something like 45-14?  Does that give them a pool C? 

It's hard to say right now.  OWU's SOS is awful, but will get a big boost over the next two weeks.  If they beat CMU, they might actually prevent CMU from hitting the regional rankings which would hurt OWU in the selection criteria (damned if they do, damned if they don't on that front...obviously, losing the game hurts worse).  If OWU slips into the at-large pool, their chances are going to rely pretty heavily on what happens over in the CCIW and the OAC.  Otterbein is likely to pick up a second loss.  Good for OWU.  If Heidelberg loses to JCU or B-W, good for OWU.  More importantly, OWU is going to root hard for IWU to beat North Central and win the CCIW.  That's probably going to wipe out strong at-large contenders from that league.  That gets OWU at or near the top of the North region list on selection Sunday, and half the battle is getting to the table.  OWU may also want Witt to lose, but I think OWU may wind up with a better 9-1 résumé than Witt will if it comes to that. 

That's a long way of saying, maybe.  9-1 OWU would need some help, but none of that help is unreasonable. 

Maybe a better way to say all of that is that 9-1 OWU would be sitting behind, in the North region:
9-1 IWU
9-1 Heidelberg
9-1 Elmhurst
and maybe 9-1 Wittenberg

One more edit...add Concordia-Chicago to this list if they wind up 9-1.  The last real chance for the Cougars to slip into Pool C comes this Saturday with their game against Aurora. 

[The_Bishop]

The_Bishop,

Maybe Wabco got you fired up but where did the Zima comment come from??  That's funny dude - Wabash guys are so Zima....NOT!  You obviously are clueless what kind of kid goes to Wabash.  I don't echo all of the other love posters saying "it's so great to see OWU rising," etc.  The downward spiral will start this Saturday.  Are they better?  Yes.  Are they a lot better?  We don't know.  As we've said, they haven't beat anyone and some of the bad teams they have played, they've barely squeeked out a win.  Espinoza can sling it against the Kenyon's, Oberlin's, Hiram's...can he against the upper half of the league?

Lastly, just an honest question:  since you have them going 9-1, what if the 1 loss is something like 45-14?  Does that give them a pool C? 

Tough sledding starts this Saturday...we'll see.

Zima?  Hahahahahaha.  Good one.

BashBacker - Check out The Bishop's post again - he noted the Zima quip with a JK (just kidding).   He was just giving the finger to Wabco for getting into his face.  The best way to insult a Wabash guy?  Accuse him of acting like a Dannie.

Good one Bishop.

But the fun looks to end on Saturday for OWU in the battle of the TLAs (three letter acronyms). While the Bishops have improved, CMU represents a significant step in competition.  Looking forward to the game on Saturday.

Thanks Wabash Hokie.  I was certain my Zima quip would be seen as nothing more than a good-natured reference to mid-90s pop culture as opposed to a direct insult to the manhood of all Wabash graduates.  So much for some fun and games on this board and trying to keep it light once in a while.  Next time I'll post a clear disclaimer, in bold, and exclude you by name so my intent is not misconstrued.

Bashbacker, you might want to spend some time re-reading my posts about the Bishops this year.  Do I have them going 9-1?  Far from it.  The team hasn't gotten ahead of themselves this year and despite being just a humble former player, alum, and fan, neither will I.  I'm concerned about whether the defense will be able to keep them in the game against CMU this Saturday.  CWRU (and Kenyon, to some extent) had some long, time-consuming drives and if the offense has too many quick 3-and-outs I'm not sure OWU's bend-don't-break defense will be able to keep things close as they have all year.  CMU is probably at least a couple touchdown favorite this Saturday, but before you start applauding the demise of OWU and the imminent "downward spiral" you're so anxious to see happen, let's let the guys play the game this Saturday.

As for any other Wabash grad I may hopefully have the pleasure of meeting in person at a pre-game tailgate in the future, the first Zima is on me. 

[nike]

OWU has provided me with more enjoyment this year than anything else in the NCAC, with the exception of Chase Belton.  Big fan and seen him many times these last four years.
Do feel that although the Bishops are underdogs Saturday they could win and I hope they do.
The last few years OWU found ways to lose games that they are winning this year. Period. Regardless of Saturday's game, on the 27th OWU will be undefeated in NCAC play. 'Nuff said. Will be there with at least two others to watch a great event, no matter who wins.
Think Watts will be even more a force to be reckoned with in the years to come with a couple years of his recruiting.
OWU got the right guy.

[BashDad]

The last few years OWU found ways to lose games that they are winning this year. Period.

The only team--the only one--that OWU beat this year that beat them a season ago is Depauw. A miserable Depauw that is among the program's worst in several decades. OWU beat that team by 4 points. The idea that we are witnessing the grand resurrection of the Bishop program--that their QB should be a POY candidate; that their coach is a genius; that they belong in conversation with perennial playoff teams--this stuff is entirely, entirely, entirely premature. I think the above quote is only tenuously correct and while I respect everyone's enthusiasm and excitement, please, for my own sanity, can we just tone it down a little bit? OWU could very well lose the next 4 games and end up 6-4 in a season where they don't play Wittenberg. That's not exactly a huge step forward.

[nike]

I will wait until Saturday to get any more excited about the Bishops.
CM first real test of the season seems to be the consensus.
Witt  and Allegheny the key game as far as the NCAC. 
6-4 may not be huge improvement, but 6-0 is. And right now the Bishops are 6-0.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Grr.  I had typed this post once and lost my internet connection.  I'll try to repeat it.

The only team--the only one--that OWU beat this year that beat them a season ago is Depauw.

Agreed.  However...

...that they belong in conversation with perennial playoff teams--this stuff is entirely, entirely, entirely premature.

Their inclusion in the conversation with playoff teams is a self-fulfilling prophesy, no?  There's a great quote from The Social Network that goes "If you guys had invented facebook, you would have invented facebook."  OWU is in the playoff conversation now because (as of now) they are in the playoff conversation.

Regardless of the coming results vs. CMU, they will be playing Wabash on 10/27 with a chance, however faint you think it may be, to put their playoff destiny completely in their own hands.  Pending the Allegheny vs. Witt result this week, the 10/27 game will be a virtual elimination game for the NCAC title.  Are we supposed to just pretend that isn't the case and that 5-1 Wabash vs. 6-0 Ohio Wesleyan is the same as any other year's game between the two?  Are we supposed to ignore the potential playoff ramifications of this game?

...while I respect everyone's enthusiasm and excitement, please, for my own sanity, can we just tone it down a little bit?

First, no one says you have to read the boards, and you're free to ignore any discussion of OWU.

Second, reread the above comments about self-fulfilling prophesy.

Something I've previously commented on, as an ex-player of recent vintage, is that most casual fans drastically underestimate how hard it is to win games every Saturday, even against lesser teams.  Except for the very bottom of the barrel, most Division III programs are full of guys that were team captains in high school, leading rushers and receivers, three-year starters, and so forth.  Winning six games in a row against ANYONE on this level is pretty hard (and if you disagree, I'll kindly refer you to Wabash's lapse against an Allegheny team that was a) annihilated by a CMU team that Wabash ran off the field a few weeks later and b) just got shut out by the mighty Chicago Maroons).  Strength of competition be darned, any 6-0 team is one that must be taken seriously by all but the very, very best Division III teams.

*Edit: One thing I forgot in the "rewrite" here is that no one has yet come out and boldly predicted that OWU actually WILL beat CMU and/or Wabash, or that they will make the playoffs.  Several of us have raised the possibility that it could occur, but no one has said it's going to happen (and I fully expect CMU to beat them this weekend and Wabash to beat them the next).  So if there's a chorus of "I told you so's" from some of the more, shall we say, hardheaded Wabash posters in the aftermath of a Wabash blowout win against OWU...you'll be arguing against a position that was never taken.

[wabco]

OK ...

ZIMA .... The Dannies have control of all Zima.  It is now their private stock.  Just go out and try to find one short of a store located in Greendingle.

NEXT ... Bishop:  Remember ... Grand Canyon ... no water ... no food.

NEXT ... ExTartan:  Refer to Bishop above.

The Little Giants can smell the purpose of their season and see it in within their grasp.  No let downs.  Witt similarly can see the end of the season within their goals.  No let down. Both Wabash and Witt have outstanding coaches ... no let down.  Both teams have the depth to play through any player replacement ... any player replacement ... against the remaining teams on their schedule. You saw it with Walsh when Belton unexpectedly went down.  It may call for a little game plan adjustment on the run ... but result through the end of the regular season will be the same.  NOW ... a playoff run after the regular season is like the work up to the World Series. You need to have your "A" game if at all possible and a fall off no matter how small ... is a expanded issue.

With all respect, OWU is the Illinois College of last year.  Good but not great.  I wish OWU all future success except against Wabash.  I look for them to improve but it takes  more than a 6 game miracle of scheduling to proclaim an arrival.  I look for them to beat Witt.  I look for them to take Witt recruits.  I look for them to be a guide to what Woo needs to do.  OWU has very fine athletes and coached and what appears to be an administration whiich desires its sp;orts program to flourish.  BUT .... 10/27 ...  after a drive or so of scripted plays aided by adrenaline ... it is the Grand Canyon hike without water or food.  (Note I did not use "monkey stomp" ... that is saved for the Zima sippikng Dannies.  And it WILL be a monkey stomp.)

[smedindy]

Frankly, I'm thinking this season is lining up at 8-2 for OWU, because even though Alleghney beat Wabash, I'm more convinced that was a 'bad' game for the LGs against a decent team. What I can't reconcile is the Gators performance the rest of the season, and with that I do think OWU can beat them.

[wally_wabash]

There are 75 individual players in D3 that account for more total offense than Allegheny has as an entire team this season.  Digest that for a bit this morning. 

[The_Bishop]

There are 75 individual players in D3 that account for more total offense than Allegheny has as an entire team this season.  Digest that for a bit this morning.

Interesting Wally.  Going down smooth with my coffee right now.

What were the offensive yardage totals for each team for the 'Gheny/'Bash game?