FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

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wally_wabash
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Re: North Coast Athletic Conference
« Reply #24095 on: Today at 03:03:28 pm »
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Quote from: Wabash Hokie on Today at 02:22:28 pm
While the RESULTS are not representative, the inability of Wabash's defense to adequately defend that type of pass is ever-present, as seen again in the CMU game and the Wash U game;  Wabash is vulnerable to that type of passing game.  Should OWU prove to be proficient in executing those plays, Wabash will be challenged.  Do I think Wabash will win? Yes I do.  I think they will  roll OWU by more than 14 points (if I was to set the line).  While the CMU win was a good one for OWU, the Wabash defense is unlike anything they have seen to date. However, if OWU (like the Miami Dolphins against the 85 Bears) can hit short quick outs against Wabash, they will be hard to stop.

I would say that what was obvious from the Allegheny game was that the game plan was all wrong and Wabash did not adjust in time.  In a previous post, I expressed my opinion that Raeburn missed an opportunity to make a statement play late in the game and to use a phrase commonly found on this board "punted to win". Unlike in the Witt game when we went for a 4th and 1, Wabash declined the opportunity to make a play and suffered for it.

CMU lost by 26 and WashU lost by 20.  WashU also sustained exactly one drive in the game against Wabash, and punted on 9 of 13 possessions.  I don't really see where this idea that Wabash is getting run up and down the field by everybody who runs a screen pass comes from.  It just isn't happening. 

Buresh scored a TD after an INT on a screen pass yesterday.  Wabash clearly isn't completely inept defending that play.
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"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

I think the point is that CM and Witt scored 28 points and 24 points respectively against Wabash.   Espinoza will test your defense more so than any team you have faced, I believe.  OWU will put points on the board. No one is predicting a Bishop win, but be careful looking for your defense to shut Mr. Espinoza and company down. Do not think that will happen.
Wabash will have to play a great game, not just show up.
Trust Belton will be healthy. You guys are going to need your best players and your "A" game. Am not coming to Selby for a blowout.
It will be a great game and a great day for Bishop football.

[smedindy]

I don't think OWU's offense is better than Wittenberg's offense.

[sigma one]

Since this if going to go on all week, let's expand the chatter.  The talk thus far has been about the OWU passing game and the Wabash defense.  The way I am looking at it, at least this early in the week, is also the match up between the OWU defense and the Wabash offense, and in particular the Wabash run game.
     OWU is second in the NCAC v. the rush at 92 ypg.  (Kenyon is third at 92.6).  Aiding that immensely is that they surrendered only 15 yds. to Hiram and 34 yds. to the new tigers.  But they have also held Oberlin to 72 (while Obe's ave per game is 124, and Denison to 73--they average 111).  CWR got 137, Kenyon 141, and CMU 172.  We all know CMU can rush the ball (though they ran for that total without Blanks, who had one carry for 5 yds).  I assume he was injured? I just can't help but think that the game would have been different if Blanks was there to make a comparison a bit more interesting--knowing that A v. B, v. v. v. is deeply flawed.    Before things get  wild, I am NOT saying that CMU would have won!
     OWU leads the NCAC is sacks, too.
     So, as big a ? at this juncture is how OWU will do v. the Wabash rush.  And if Belton is healthy, that compounds things.  Wabash returns to being a two-headed monster--something they did not have to be last week because Wooster was helpless/hopeless against the run. 
     Another complication is that Wabash can usually throw the ball successfully when they want to--they just have not had to do much passing, opting to keep the ball, rest the defense, and run some clock.
     The factors, then, are:  OWU rush defense, Wabash pass defense, quick strike potential or lack of it by both teams, and turnover margin.  These are the two best in the NCAC at that margin:  OWU +10, Wabash +8.    Excepting Allegheny, no one so far has been able to drive the field consistently v. Wabash.  And I believe we all agree we should throw out the Allegheny game as football craziness, unlikely to repeat.  There's just too much aggressiveness in the Wabash defense.
     As to the debate about Wabash not defending the flanks and the screen, not so recently.  Every defense has a weakness.  The way Wabash plays the short outs and backs sneaking from the backfield, it's true they have been occasionallly exposed (give Allegheny credit), but those holes have been shrinking the last several weeks. Some completions, but minimum yardage.
     Am I looking forward to this match with the excellence of the OWU passing v. the Wabash pass defense efficiency? You bet.  I am also looking forward to seeing what OWU does v. the Wabash rush.  And can Wabash pass if they have to, and can (will)  OWU (try to) rush (I don't sense that they will--try, that is)--although I think, here, the advantage may tip to the Little Giants, if it comes to that. 
     
       
     

[BashDad]

I don't think OWU's offense is better than Wittenberg's offense.

Points to you, sir. Still laughing.

[BashDad]

The way I am looking at it, at least this early in the week, is also the match up between the OWU defense and the Wabash offense, and in particular the Wabash run game.   

Yes. Since 'Gheny (and against a tougher set of teams) the LG's are averaging 295 ypg on the ground. If they continue on that pace, they'll rush for more yards than any team in Wabash history ever has.

[cave2bens]

I think the point is that CM and Witt scored 28 points and 24 points respectively against Wabash.   Espinoza will test your defense more so than any team you have faced, I believe.  OWU will put points on the board. No one is predicting a Bishop win, but be careful looking for your defense to shut Mr. Espinoza and company down. Do not think that will happen.
Wabash will have to play a great game, not just show up.
Trust Belton will be healthy. You guys are going to need your best players and your "A" game. Am not coming to Selby for a blowout.
It will be a great game and a great day for Bishop football.

With wifey back on the dark continent, considering a 10 hr road trip to the Olentangy flats for some pheasant shooting at Lone Oak and a ballgame on Saturday.  It is a big day for OWU, regardless - the Bishops are having a season for the ages (or at least the decade  ).

Before succumbing to the inevitable "yeah, buts...," believe The LGs have solved part of the screen pass dilemma with their focus on containment.  There was one incident where a safety didn't come to the weakside when #2 blitzed from the outside, but an incompletion rendered the situation moot.  Have watched Espinosa (and no offense, but that is the spelling of his name) since his junior year at Cookeville (friend of my nephew).  His play is very strategic, heady, and he certainly can execute on par with anyone, given adequate time as an "old school, pro-type" quarterback.  Success lives and dies with his pocket protection and receivers breaking open very quickly as he's not a scrambler in the vein of Florence, Barnes, or Belton when pressured.

Really believe this will be an interesting game where outcome hinges on how well the OWU o-line can keep Mason off of his back.  While Wabash may not have played against such a prolific passer this year, OWU has not dealt with aggression and speed of the LG front seven either, and the secondary is pretty solid (especially if Koop's back from his niggle. The OWU defense faces a multi-dimensional, balanced offense unlike any seen so far this season.  So the second question becomes how many possessions will be available to Espinosa and the Bishops?  Execution, errors (forced or unforced), focus - why the games are played and not left to prognostication. 

Sigma beat me to it - hate those red warnings, but spent too much time developing carpal tunnel to toss it. 

[BashDad]

OWU is second in the NCAC v. the rush at 92 ypg.  (Kenyon is third at 92.6).  Aiding that immensely is that they surrendered only 15 yds. to Hiram and 34 yds. to the new tigers.  But they have also held Oberlin to 72 (while Obe's ave per game is 124, and Denison to 73--they average 111).  CWR got 137, Kenyon 141, and CMU 172.  We all know CMU can rush the ball (though they ran for that total without Blanks, who had one carry for 5 yds).

I mean..... Just look at those opponents.

[smedindy]

BTW, Wittenberg has more total offense per game than OWU. 430.9 to 406.6. Wabash is third at 400.1

Wabash has the most points, 32.9 per game. Witt is second at 32.4 and OWU is 31.3

[old wabash]

wabash jumps two spots on latest poll...from 13th to 11th!!


http://www.d3football.com/top25/2012/week8

[old wabash]

also owu picks up its first poll points this season?


http://www.d3football.com/top25/2012/week8

[wally_wabash]

Just so that we're all aware of how poor the pass defenses are that OWU has faced this year are, here's this:

Team	Pass D Rank
Denison	208
Oberlin	116
CWRU	167
Hiram	177
DPU	206
Kenyon	169
CMU	180
Wabash	58

It's naive to think that OWU will be operating their pass-first (pass-only?) offense as freely as they have been against an entire schedule of teams that are very poor against the pass.  It's a different animal on Saturday. 

Similarly, let's take a look at who OWU has had to defend against the run:

Team	Rush O Rank
Denison	178
Oberlin	155
CWRU	123
Hiram	235
DPU	217
Kenyon	96
CMU	57
Wabash	43

Again, while maybe not quite as striking, OWU hasn't seen what Wabash is bringing...not even Carnegie Mellon (was surprised to see that actually...also, OWU caught a huge break with Blanks not playing for CMU Saturday.  Huge break.)  Now I'm not trying to say that all of this adds up to a Wabash win or certain doom for OWU.  Just trying to use some data to show how big the step up is here compared to what OWU has seen so far this season. 

[Joe Wally]

I did not catch the entire broadcast. what happened to Porter?

[wally_wabash]

I did not catch the entire broadcast. what happened to Porter?

CP had made a nice run, got tackled from behind and was hurt on the play.  Dislocated and fractured hip would seem to be official report.  We certainly wish CP the best and hope that he comes out of this well and can get back on the field next season.  CP has been and continues to be a great Wabash story. 

[sigma one]

It's peculiar, and shows how dangerous statistics can sometimes be--not always--just sometimes.  Denison is 177th nationally in rushing at 111 yds. per game.  Yet they feature the leading rusher in the NCAC in Fiorini, who rushes for 111 yds per game.  He has 777 yds. on the season.  Denison's second rusher has all of 37 yds.  And Paulus is -66. 
     Fioroni has also scored all 6 of Denison's rushing TDs. 

[sigma one]

Oops, I want to this in public.  Fioroni, Fioroni, Fioroni, Fioroni, Fioroni, Fioroni.  Too good a player to be mis-identified.