FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[nike]

Because with only a couple games left, the title is not guaranteed to go to either Wabash or Wittenberg. That is why.

[wally_wabash]

If Wabash had beaten Allegheny, this board would not be quite so heated.  But they lost.  If Ohio Weslyan had lost to Carnegie Mellon, again, there wouldn't be that cool posts that there have been the last couple days.  Wabash lost and Ohio Weslyan is undefeated. 

This all has the underlying assumption that the teams have played the same schedule.  Or even a schedule that is somewhat similar.  They haven't.  OWU hasn't played Allegheny.  OWU won't be playing Wittenberg.  OWU hasn't played Wooster yet either.  Let's take a look at common opponents, of which there are surprisingly few...

Denison: OWU defeated the Big Red 32-29.  Wabash defeated Denison 35-2.  Both games were in Granville.  The games happened seven days apart. 

Carnegie Mellon: OWU defeated Carnegie Mellon 34-26, at Carnegie Mellon, with Patrick Blanks touching the ball one time.  Wabash defeated Carnegie Mellon 54-28 in Crawfordsville with Patrick Blanks touching the ball 31 times. 

[nike]

Pound OWU in the ground and your point will be made. But the Bishops have earned their week of excitement, regardless of the scheduling.
Kept hearing how Carnegie Mellon was going to mop the field with the Bishops--their first real quality opponent. Didn't happen.
Now Wabash is the only thing that measures them.
Upsets happen. No one is saying that Ohio Weslyan is going to beat Wabash to a pulp. Or even that Ohio Weslyan is favored. Or guaranteeing a victory.  Only that it will be an entertaining game.
And that OWU will come to play.
Hope Belton is at full stength. If he isn't, that makes things a little more interesting. 

[smedindy]

Because with only a couple games left, the title is not guaranteed to go to either Wabash or Wittenberg. That is why.

Lest ye forget 2010, when before the games of 10/30 the standings were:

Wabash 4-0
Wittenberg 3-0
Wooster 2-1
Allegheny 2-1

Both the Gators and Scots were in the hunt; they may have needed a bit of help but nothing was guaranteed for Wabash or Wittenberg at that stage. Wabash concluded with Allegheny and Witt. Witt ended with Wabash and Wooster. The Gators and Scots DIDN'T play each other. It could have been a Gordian knot.

PS - Thanks to EARLHAM for that cluster of a season where almost every team had a 'non-conference' conference game. Yeesh.

[NCAC4Life]

Geesh....Based on what I am hearing from Wallace and Daddycakes, the Bishops have no chance at all and the Lil Giants will just crush them. Probably same thoughts OSU fans had about Purdue this week before the miracle on the Olentangy. Let's hope for the sanity of those in denial about losing to the Gators, the Lil Giants don't need a miracle this week. I mean, gosh, how would you explain away two losses to mediocre teams.

One other thought....The great Blanks is averaging 77 yards a game but had 157 yards against the Lil Giants. Not counting the Wabash game he is averaging a scary 57.5 yards per game for CMU. Thank goodness for the Lil Giant rush defense or else he might just be an ordinary back.

[bashbrother]

True the Bishops should be very happy with the year they have had...   but as many have mentioned.....  Wabash is a different beast.   Reminds me of those moments of extreme confidence as a Bash fan, only to have UWW, Mount or a good Wheaton team clean our clock.    Even though, I am sure the Bishops Coaching Staff is not hanging on the "Gheny beat them" line, I wish they were.

Beating CMU was a big win,  being undefeated is big.   The one thing that I believe will play out on Saturday is that one of the teams on the field has played in and won numerous "Big" games for many years. The other has finally found a winning spirit after years of disappointment.

I predict the game is not as close as the hype...   Not to take anything away from the Bishop's great season.

[nike]

So bashbrother, you have been where the Bishop fans are now.  You get it!
Any word on Belton?
That could be huge.

[wally_wabash]

Geesh....Based on what I am hearing from Wallace and Daddycakes, the Bishops have no chance at all and the Lil Giants will just crush them. Probably same thoughts OSU fans had about Purdue this week before the miracle on the Olentangy. Let's hope for the sanity of those in denial about losing to the Gators, the Lil Giants don't need a miracle this week. I mean, gosh, how would you explain away two losses to mediocre teams.

First, what the heck does Purdue or Ohio State have to do with anything? 

Second, no denial here about losing the game to Allegheny.  You could see that result coming after two possessions in that game.  The Gators brought it that day, no question about it. 

I've provided statistical context to OWU's season so far.  I've given a comparison of performances against common opponents.  So far, we've not been presented with anything describing OWU's strengths in Saturday's game other than "gee, isn't it exciting that OWU is 7-0" and "wouldn't it be neat if a few people actually turned out and watched this team play".  I've heard that Mason Espinosa is the hardest thing Wabash will have to have defend this year, but the evidence for that really isn't there either. 

Look, I don't know what's going to happen on Saturday.  I have no doubt that Ohio Wesleyan is a much improved football team riding an enormous wave of confidence.  These things are not disputable.  But there's a big gap between what OWU has seen so far and Wabash...this is supported by the numbers. 

Quick note: It is exciting that OWU is 7-0 and it would be nice if they brought a big crowd in for Saturday's game.  I'm not trying to say otherwise.  But neither of those things are relevant to the game analysis. 

[nike]

Quick note: It is exciting that OWU is 7-0 and it would be nice if they brought a big crowd in for Saturday's game.  I'm not trying to say otherwise.  But neither of those things are relevant to the game analysis.  wally_wabash

All true.  Will be there for the fun and excitement of d3 ball. 
Actually a date with my wife, too.  Food, a great game and nice ride back home.  We both miss our kids' high school and college games and NCAC games have been a suitable replacement over the years following the Scots.
When all is said and done, the games has to be played.  And after it is over, some folks are going to have some explaining to do.
BTW, can't remember where I heard this, from one of my coaches or somewhere, but I would remind us all regarding Espinosa, that the 400+ yards he threw for against CM this past Saturday would be a lot of yardage "even in a scrimmage".  And almost 2500 yards for the year.  Second best qb in the NCAC. And in my humble opinion, he will be the best qb you face all year-certainly the best passer.
At least until the tournament.

[NCAC4Life]

Nike- "I would remind us all regarding Espinosa, that the 400+ yards he threw for against CM this past Saturday would be a lot of yardage "even in a scrimmage".   

I think the 6,745 yards he has thrown for in almost three seasons probably doesn't count much either because only two of those games came against the  Lil Giants. We all KNOW the other teams are far inferior pass defenses to what they bring to the table. I mean with the two game average of 226 yards per game against the Lil Giants, spread over three seasons, he would only throw for 6,780 over three seasons if he averaged that. Significantly less than he has right now!

[wally_wabash]

Nike- "I would remind us all regarding Espinosa, that the 400+ yards he threw for against CM this past Saturday would be a lot of yardage "even in a scrimmage".   

I think the 6,745 yards he has thrown for in almost three seasons probably doesn't count much either because only two of those games came against the  Lil Giants. We all KNOW the other teams are far inferior pass defenses to what they bring to the table. I mean with the two game average of 226 yards per game against the Lil Giants, spread over three seasons, he would only throw for 6,780 over three seasons if he averaged that. Significantly less than he has right now!

Right. Those of us who watch Wabash football on the regular aren't qualified to spot good quarterback play.  Seriously. 

[nike]

Nike- "I would remind us all regarding Espinosa, that the 400+ yards he threw for against CM this past Saturday would be a lot of yardage "even in a scrimmage".   

I think the 6,745 yards he has thrown for in almost three seasons probably doesn't count much either because only two of those games came against the  Lil Giants. We all KNOW the other teams are far inferior pass defenses to what they bring to the table. I mean with the two game average of 226 yards per game against the Lil Giants, spread over three seasons, he would only throw for 6,780 over three seasons if he averaged that. Significantly less than he has right now!

Right. Those of us who watch Wabash football on the regular aren't qualified to spot good quarterback play.  Seriously.

So where do you rank him in the NCAC this year leading up to the Wabash game?  Who have you faced that is better this year?

[BashDad]

Your leading running back in the game averaged 3.9 yards per carry and gained a total of 55 yards.

Wabash is running better than they were in game 2 of the 2011 season.  By a lot. 

Carnegie Mellon: OWU defeated Carnegie Mellon 34-26, at Carnegie Mellon, with Patrick Blanks touching the ball one time.  Wabash defeated Carnegie Mellon 54-28 in Crawfordsville with Patrick Blanks touching the ball 31 times. 

OWU attempted 65 passes for 415 yards against CMU. Wabash nearly matched that in 20 less rushing attempts. I'm thinking if you're counting on OWU to stifle Wabash's running game, you might as well be hoping Espinosa doesn't throw a pick.

And speaking of picks, if I know anything about playing quarterback, I know this: one of the consequences of going undefeated against a soft schedule--never mind the consequence of throwing nearly 350 times during that span--is that you become accustomed to a version of success that's misleading. You become confident in certain throws that you won't be able to make. And what does that mean? Picks. You're gonna throw picks.

Espinosa has averaged 1+ interceptions a game throughout his career. He's thrown 5 in the last three games against teams with pass defenses ranked 180, 169, 206. Wabash, as Wally pointed out yesterday, is ranked 58th. 58th isn't particularly fantastic, but it's worlds away from what OWU, and Espinosa has seen. Every DB that he'll see on Saturday, minus Woods who wasn't enrolled, was an All Conference player last year. You know how many DB's Espinosa has faced this year who can say that? Zero.

Consider this: every interception Espinosa has tossed this year has been in "and-long" situations, with half of them being on 3rd and long. Now. If you look at Espinosa's longest completed passes on the year, you'll see something similar-- 4 of his longest 7 completions came on 1st and 10. The others are 2nd and 18, and 2nd and 10 twice. 6 of Espinosa's 13 Tds have been on throws of 43 yards or longer.

All of this tells me a couple things:

OWU's offense lives and dies on the deep ball. They shrink in the red zone and have no running game. They gotta get yards in chunks if they're gonna score points. They haven't had much luck otherwise. I'd be curious how many TD drives they've had that didn't have a play of 25+ through the air. I bet it's close to zero. Why would this be important? Because if OWU needs these kinds of plays to compete, which they do, and these kinds of plays are also the ones that have resulted in turnovers, which they are, then, well... you see where I'm going. Despite all this chatter about the flats and swing passes and screens and blah blah blah, the one thing that maybe we can all agree on is that if you're playing Wabash's defense and you're taking your sweet time in the pocket, you're not gonna be successful. What do big passing plays need? Time to develop. Wabash hasn't given up a play over 38 yards all season. And it's not just because our DBs are good. You can't throw with Nate Scola laying on top of you.

[BashDad]

Who have you faced that is better this year?

1. Reed Florence
2. Rob Kalkstein

I even think Max Paulus might be better, if we're talking only in terms of talent and not statistical success. The truth is, I think Espinosa looks fairly mediocre. His release is ugly as all hell, he's big and slow, but hey-- he's got a pretty good arm that gets to throw lots and lots of passes. That's what I think he is.

[sigma one]

We keep throwing out a lot of numbers.  To win, OWU has to have more balance than they have shown so far.  OWU averages 329 yds/game passing and 65 yds/game rushing.  An earlier point was that they sneaked a few good rushes in v. CMU.  They will have to pop some of those again to keep the Wabash rush/blitz off Espinosa.  And Espinosa will have to hit short passes consistently because he won't have a chance to thrown deep very often.  This was Allegheny's formula:  they used the draw effectively and kept Wabash off balance with short passes. Everyone since then has used some variation of this strategy, and not to good results.  Wabash learned something from that humiliation.
     And OWU has to, has to, has to, slow down the Wabash rush and force the pass.  Can they  do this without committing 8 guys?
     By the way, say all you want about Blanks and his total stats.  He has come on during the year, was getting more carries (and receptions) because the other CMU backs went down and their attack had to go more to him.  He's exceptional.  Again, I said earlier I still don't think that CMU would have won if Blanks had gotten his usual production, but it was a factor--big or small.  I go with big. 
     I'm looking forward to Wabash playing against a QB who isn't very often going to escape from the rush.  Those passes are going to have to be quick and accurate.  OWU supporters say Espinosa can do that, and Wabash knows he's going to have to do that. 
     Tyson:  Everybody thinks he's good until he gets punched in the mouth. Eventually, someone punched him.  Is Saturday that day or not?