FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

Hey, I love a good projection as much as the next guy, but I would just keep in mind that last year the committee blew our collective minds by basically putting teams in 4-team pods instead of the 8-team sections that we're used to.  I'd say the probability that these 8 teams, or even 8 North teams in general wind up in the same quadrant of the bracket is slim.  Wabash's quadrant last year had teams from three different regions! 

[smedindy]

They'd have to group the 'pods' in some sense. I guess I keep wanting to retro-fit the playoffs back to where we complained about the seedings and placement of teams in each region, and not when we just complained about seedings.

So from the North we have, assuming the "A"s hold serve:

Mt. Union
Concordia - Chicago
Wabash
Wittenberg
Franklin
Adrian
North Central
Elmhurst
Heidelberg

OWU is probably next on the list at 9-1. Wally currently has them out of the playoffs even though they have an SOS of 89 and an 0-1 record vs. RR teams. Having C-M screw the pooch last week really hurt them. I think the Tartans would have been RR'd.

[wally_wabash]

Yeah, I have Heidelberg as the last team in right now.  OWU would be the next team to the table in the North, so I guess you call them one of the dreaded "last four out".  OWU needs to root hard for whoever is playing Elmhurst and Heidelberg.  One of those teams needs to get punted if OWU is going to get in the discussion. 

[Dr. Acula]

With Heidelberg looking at JCU (6-2) and BW (7-1) they definitely have some hurdles to clear, that's for sure.

[wabndy]

Bash will get a 3 behind NC (that loss to Allegeny was a killer). 

The loss is what it is. NC and Wabash both have head scratching losses against a 3-5 and 4-4 team respectively.  Wabash has a higher SOS (at least this week) than NC at .607 vs. .538 and two RRO wins (albeit against #7 and #9) while NC has one RRO against #5.  The kicker is that Wabash played two fewer in-region games than NC.  The in-region concept is, in theory, admirable.  They way it is implemented gives us these very arbitrary and quite ridiculous results.  For example, NC, an Illinois school, can play an in region game in Hawaii.  Wabash can play an in-region game in Florida or Virginia (I retract my earlier comment about a possible stag bowl matchup with H-SC - it would be an in-region game- bring it on!).  Yet Wabash can travel the <250 to St. Louis to play an out of region game.  At the very least the 200 mile in-region rule could be expanded.  If the spirit of the rule is to prevent deep pocketed schools from scheduling expensive far-away games to boost SOS, then set the in-region radius at the same maximum as the NCAA does for playoff bus trips, 500 miles.  That isn't going to break anybody's budget and preserves the intent of the rule.

[Pat Coleman]

Bash will get a 3 behind NC (that loss to Allegeny was a killer). 

The loss is what it is. Wabash has a higher SOS (at least this week) than NC at .607 vs. .538 and two RRO wins (albeit against #7 and #9) while NC has one RRO against #5.  The kicker is that Wabash played two fewer in-region games than NC.  The in-region concept is, in theory, admirable.  They way it is implemented gives us these very arbitrary and quite ridiculous results.  For example, NC, an Illinois school, can play an in region game in Hawaii.  Wabash can play an in-region game in Florida or Virginia (I retract my earlier comment about a possible stag bowl matchup with H-SC - it would be an in-region game- bring it on!).  Yet Wabash can travel the <250 to St. Louis to play an out of region game.  At the very least the 200 mile in-region rule could be expanded.  If the spirit of the rule is to prevent deep pocketed schools from scheduling expensive far-away games to boost SOS, then set the in-region radius at the same maximum as the NCAA does for playoff bus trips, 500 miles.  That isn't going to break anybody's budget and preserves the intent of the rule.

One of the things to keep in mind is that the definition is the same for all sports. So while it may make sense for football to have a larger radius, since it plays one game a week, primarily on weekends, it doesn't make sense to encourage a soccer or volleyball team to jump in a bus for that kind of trip.

I'd be OK with an expansion to 250, but I prefer adding a line calling games between teams in bordering states in-region. That would expand Indiana/Illinois regional games (more in other sports) and Michigan/Illinois and Wisconsin/Michigan. There are also Delaware/Virginia and Maryland/Virginia games that aren't in-region but really should be.

[nike]

In reading the above posts, is it possible that if Kenyon gets the AQ, that Wabash and Witt could both get in if they win out?  That can't happen can it?

[wabndy]

In reading the above posts, is it possible that if Kenyon gets the AQ, that Wabash and Witt could both get in if they win out?  That can't happen can it?

Witt appears to own all the AQ tiebreakers so they are either pool A or out if they pick up another loss. I believe OWU has the AQ in the event of a Kenyon/Wabash/OWU tie. So the only way Kenyon can get the AQ is either as the sole champion or with just a Wabash/Kenyon tie. In that case, OWU and Witt would have lost some games and be out of pool C contention anyway.

[sigma one]

#16:  I don't know why fewer Bell tickets.  I just know they printed fewer.

[smedindy]

In reading the above posts, is it possible that if Kenyon gets the AQ, that Wabash and Witt could both get in if they win out?  That can't happen can it?

Witt appears to own all the AQ tiebreakers so they are either pool A or out if they pick up another loss. I believe OWU has the AQ in the event of a Kenyon/Wabash/OWU tie. So the only way Kenyon can get the AQ is either as the sole champion or with just a Wabash/Kenyon tie. In that case, OWU and Witt would have lost some games and be out of pool C contention anyway.

Witt losing to Hiram and Oberlin? I'm no Nate Silver, but that would be about as likely as Obama beating Romney in Utah.

I would say the same about Wabash losing to Oberlin and DPU, but there's some bad Monon Bell juju to never say NEVER in a Monon Bell game. However, I CAN say that it's about a 98.6% chance of Wabash going 2-0 as well, with 1.4% being the rivalry game factor which has been reduced by the fecklessness of DPU this year.

/please don't jinx us Monon Bell God

[BashDad]

...but there's some bad Monon Bell juju to never say NEVER in a Monon Bell game.

Never.

[sigma one]

I'm not about to predict that Wabash will struggle in its last two games, let alone lose even one of them.  Just for thought though, last year Wabash led Oberlin 30-3 in the third quarter, then the Yoes made it 30-23 with 7 minutes left in the game.  Wabash wrapped it up with about 2 min. remaining.  I admire Oberlin for its competitiveness, though I wonder how much they have left this late in the season, and on the road.  They are giving up just 2.5 yds per rush to lead the NCAC.  It helps them that Eaton is a sack monster, so rush yds against them goes down.  The Wabash running game vs. that average will be interesting as Bash tries to continue gobbling up yds on the ground.  Witjes is averaging 90 yds per game receiving.  Again, his ability vs. the Wabash D will be something to watch.  Key here, as it is every week, is how much pressure the Wabash D will dial up.  With Richardson (rushing), Mandel, Witjes, Eaton, and Kalgren (an impressive DB) Oberlin has at least five productive players--maybe a few others.  They can make it rough if the ball bounces their way swing and they are close in the second half. 
     Looking ahead to DPU, I know they have not produced.  But they have losses by 2, 2 (Allegheny and Kenyon), and 4 points (Ohio Wesleyan).  We've been at work detailing that two of these teams could be NCAC co-champs, and the other beat Wabash at home.  After two big losses to start the season, DPU has improved it appears, and last week's win v. Wooster at Woo they should take as a positive, regardless of what has happened to the Scots.  Someone from DePauw could argue--I guess I am doing that reluctantly--that their season could look quite different if not for just a few plays.  They could be .500 or above instead of 2-6.
      Like so many others, I've been wary of this rivalry and what has occasionally happened going way back to, well, the Mud Bowl game of 1967.  Recently, DPU has bitten Wabash when the Little Giants were on the cusp of undefeated seasons.  True, their records were better then, but . . .the rivalry is always unpredictable.  Wabash should win, but I don't see what others see; that is, a near repeat of the last two years.  Lots of time left to discuss this.  Yoemen first.
     If Wabash can't get pumped for these next two games with what's at stake . . .

[Pat Coleman]

In reading the above posts, is it possible that if Kenyon gets the AQ, that Wabash and Witt could both get in if they win out?  That can't happen can it?

Witt appears to own all the AQ tiebreakers so they are either pool A or out if they pick up another loss. I believe OWU has the AQ in the event of a Kenyon/Wabash/OWU tie. So the only way Kenyon can get the AQ is either as the sole champion or with just a Wabash/Kenyon tie. In that case, OWU and Witt would have lost some games and be out of pool C contention anyway.

Witt losing to Hiram and Oberlin? I'm no Nate Silver, but that would be about as likely as Obama beating Romney in Utah.

I would say the same about Wabash losing to Oberlin and DPU, but there's some bad Monon Bell juju to never say NEVER in a Monon Bell game. However, I CAN say that it's about a 98.6% chance of Wabash going 2-0 as well, with 1.4% being the rivalry game factor which has been reduced by the fecklessness of DPU this year.

/please don't jinx us Monon Bell God

Given the rest of the post, I thought this said "Mormon Bell God."

[BashBacker#16]

As some of us have said on this board, I think this Wabash team, since the Allegheny game...has been a completely different team.  They've passed every test since and have been impressive doing so.  They are playing very good football and I think that will continue these last 2 weeks. 

Think about the changes.  Up through the Allegheny game, we were still searching for our identity - especially on offense.  Were we going to be a passing team, a running team, or a 50/50 team...  Since the loss, it's as if we've found it with the read-option, establishing the run early in the game, and stretching the field from time to time throughout the game.  The Bash O-line has been very good and the emergence of Tyler Holmes has been huge!  As Nike noted, you forget he's 225 lbs - he averages 6.7 yards per carry.  I also am very impressed with our receivers.  Whether Hodges is in or not, that group catches the ball.  We may not have any Chamblee's or Horn's but Laird, Gibson, the Frosh TE, all can go get it and make plays when their # is called.  Keep in mind Holmes missed the 1st 2 games of the season!

I'm as disappointed in the Allegheny loss as anyone else but you can look back and the transformation is in that game.  For that, I'm almost glad we lost because it completely changed this team.

As SigmaOne noted, I can't see this team being flat on either one of these last 2 games - big stakes are still on the table.  Will convincing wins help our case in seedings?  Not sure but that's all we can do at this point.  I just wanna keep this momentum and hope for some luck in our draw and our seedings...

WAF

[smedindy]

I think there's a big contrast between how Wabash dealt with Allegheny and the perception of how Whitewater dealt with their Buffalo State loss. North Central seems to have dealt with their 'WTF' loss the same as Wabash.

It's a difference between, "No one ELSE is going to beat us" and "Hey, some teams CAN beat us."