FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[sigma one]

WittFootball points out some Florence accomplishments that I had not looked at closely.  I don't know when the voting takes place (the NCAC is usually later than most in announcing its post-season awards), but Florence did lead the conference in passing efficiency and his running ability is superior.  With both Witt and OWU at 9-1, and Witt in the playoffs, he jumps up in consideration.  Just thinking about Espinosa and Florence v. Wabash, on the whole both Witt and Florence did better than Espinosa, not so much in the total numbers (Espinosa was 52 of 75), but in the closeness of the results with the two leading their teams.  That's not the whole picture, but for some it might make a difference.
     Earlier I said Espinosa; I am staying with him because of OWU's big jump this year.

[nike]

Belton may not even get 2nd team. The argument positioning him above either Florence or Espinosa kind of wilts under inspection. Would I want him on my team over those guys? Yep. But I doubt the NCAC starts handing out trophies for "all around leadership." And even that, by the way, is kind of your own invention. Tough year.

All around leadership to me was the combination of big passes, big runs and game ending drives. Witt game epitome of leadership.  But Wabash had to win the Oberlin game and they did not. That would have clinched the NCAC title with Witt and OWU and probably from what I saw on here, a berth in the tournament. That would have sewed it up for Belton.
Best game of the year I saw was the Wabash Witt game. Belton was at his best in that game. Have enjoyed him for four years and will miss watching him. A class act from what I've seen.

[BashDad]

Florence also has 459 yards rushing with 7 TD's compared to Espinosa's 115 and 1 TD.

Espinosa actually has -38 yards on the ground. And look, I don't think he's better than Florence. He's not better than Belton. But he will win the OPoY. That's happening.

The truth is, and I'm still too disappointed to really go all the way with this post, but the truth is that this year's NCAC football season wasn't its best. It was a screwy, sometimes riveting season, but it wasn't those things because everyone was so good which is what I think we all want to believe right now. We're sending a team to the playoffs that probably isn't making it past Saturday; that team is sharing its conference championship with a team it didn't play and a team that got shut-out by the third place team in the league; and that team, Wabash, threw up two of the biggest what-the-eff games in the past decade of not just its own program's history, but the conference's too. It just--the whole friggin' season--it just felt a little stupid for my taste. So, I don't know, if Mason Espinosa is the offensive representative of all of that, then so be it. Seems fitting, if I have my mean hat on. Grumble grumble.

115-7.

[WittFootball]

Florence also has 459 yards rushing with 7 TD's compared to Espinosa's 115 and 1 TD.

Espinosa actually has -38 yards on the ground. And look, I don't think he's better than Florence. He's not better than Belton. But he will win the OPoY. That's happening.

The truth is, and I'm still too disappointed to really go all the way with this post, but the truth is that this year's NCAC football season wasn't its best. It was a screwy, sometimes riveting season, but it wasn't those things because everyone was so good which is what I think we all want to believe right now. We're sending a team to the playoffs that probably isn't making it past Saturday; that team is sharing its conference championship with a team it didn't play and a team that got shut-out by the third place team in the league; and that team, Wabash, threw up two of the biggest what-the-eff games in the past decade of not just its own program's history, but the conference's too. It just--the whole friggin' season--it just felt a little stupid for my taste. So, I don't know, if Mason Espinosa is the offensive representative of all of that, then so be it. Seems fitting, if I have my mean hat on. Grumble grumble.

115-7.

Believe me, after watching Wabash control the ball for the final nine minutes of the Wittenberg game, I thought they would continue that momentum towards a pretty high playoff seed. Week after week I kept watching them rise in the polls hoping that Witt would get an at-large bid because its only loss would that three point loss to Wabash. Well, then things got interesting.

Yep. It was a screwy season. My first following the NCAC. It seems that with all teams playing one another next year it should not be as controversial as this year. I am wondering what approach teams will take in scheduling their lone non-conference game. I'm hoping for games that will boost strength of schedule just in case their are three teams vying for playoffs spots next.

As for Saturday's game, take off that mean hat, put on your red W hat and send good vibes to that other team in the NCAC whose followers also wear red W hats.


"Stay focused. Your start does not determine how you're going to finish."~Herm Edwards

[bashbrother]

I will offer up my final 2012 Wabash Football post:

First of all congrats to this Senior Class!   They accomplished a heck of a lot during their time... Thank you for your commitment to winning and continuing a great tradition of outstanding football at Wabash College.   

Ok,  now for the uncomfortable:

Something was wrong with this year's team.   Either from a player chemistry, leadership or a coaching standpoint, something was wrong.    A team that gets up to beat Witt & OWU on the road and beats a good CMU team at home... doesn't fall asleep and get defeated by Oberlin and Allegheny on their home field.  There was something structurally wrong with this team.   Some may say that "We've become spoiled"... not buying it......  We beat OWU 28-0 at Selby!!!  and beat a solid Witt team on their homecoming.  If winning the big games only to lose the small ones is spoiled.....  I should probably hang it up.   I could see giving a team a pass for a being caught early in the season....  but not after they have a few games under their belt.

I am sure that ER and staff know very well what the issues were/are and I have total confidence in them figuring it out.    A great year? No... A solid year... Yes....  A strange year... Absolutely.

WAF!  and again... thank you to the Seniors that kept the Bell ringing in Crawfordsville for 4 years straight.....  You are (1) of only (5) Wabash Senior classes in history to accomplish that!  Bravo!

[wally_wabash]

Espinosa actually has -38 yards on the ground. And look, I don't think he's better than Florence. He's not better than Belton. But he will win the OPoY. That's happening.

The truth is, and I'm still too disappointed to really go all the way with this post, but the truth is that this year's NCAC football season wasn't its best. It was a screwy, sometimes riveting season, but it wasn't those things because everyone was so good which is what I think we all want to believe right now. We're sending a team to the playoffs that probably isn't making it past Saturday; that team is sharing its conference championship with a team it didn't play and a team that got shut-out by the third place team in the league; and that team, Wabash, threw up two of the biggest what-the-eff games in the past decade of not just its own program's history, but the conference's too. It just--the whole friggin' season--it just felt a little stupid for my taste. So, I don't know, if Mason Espinosa is the offensive representative of all of that, then so be it. Seems fitting, if I have my mean hat on. Grumble grumble.

115-7.

This.  All of this is correct. 

[smedindy]

Had Holmes not been hurt early so that Raeburn had to limit his carries until he returned full speed, then he may have been POY.

Of course, had other injuries not befallen the LG backfield he may not have accumulated some of his monster stats toward the end of the year.

[bufordscot]

The defensive player of the year is definately the Wooster offense.

[seinfeld]

I think everyone who has watched Schmitz run the spread offense cringes at how poorly it is done. The play calling, the players he tries to fit into the system, etc., all haven't worked. But if the spread, at least the way Schmitz runs it, should do anything, it is consistently move the chains. Since there is no vertical game, the offense should, theoretically, pick up a lot of first downs while marching down the field. However, the exact opposite has happened. Here is a breakdown of how Wooster has fared based on its drive chart in recent years:


2012
132 total drives
19 drives resulted in negative yards gained (14.4% of all drives)
54 drives went for less than 10 yards (40.9% of all drives)
19 drives resulted in 172 points (14.4% of drives led to points)

Barnes - 105 drives, 18 for negative yards (17.1%), 49 for less than 10 yards (46.7%), 13 scoring drives led to 143 points (12.4% of drives led to points)
Frongillo - 15 drives, 0 for negative yards (0%), 1 for less than 10 yards (6.7%), 4 scoring drives led to 19 points (26.7% of drives led to points)
Alex Hohl - 12 drives, 1 for negative yards (8.3%), 4 for less than 10 yards (33%), 2 scoring drives led to 10 points (16.67% of drives led 10 points)

2011
127 total drives
8 drives resulted in negative yards gained (6.3% of all drives)
40 drives went for less than 10 yards (31.5% of all drives)
25 drives resulted in 165 points (19.7% of drives led to points)

Barnes - 36 drives, 4 for negative yards (11.1%), 13 for less than 10 yards (36.1%), 2 scoring drives led to 14 points (5.55% of drives led to points)
Frongillo - 91 drives, 4 for negative yards (4.4%), 27 for less than 10 yards (29.7%), 23 scoring drives led to 151 points (25.3% of drives led to points)

2010
128 total drives
21 drives resulted in negative yards gained (16.4%)
52 drives went for less than 10 yards (40.6%)
36 drives resulted in 238 points (28.1% of drives led to points)

Barnes - 120 drives, 20 for negative yards (16.7%), 49 for less than 10 yards (40.8%), 37 scoring drives led to 224 points (30.8% of drives led to points)
Frongillo - 8 drives, 1 for negative yards (12.5%), 3 for less than 10 yards (37.5%), 2 scoring drives led to 14 points (25% of drives led to points)


Last 3 Seasons:
Team: 387 drives
48 drives resulted in negative yards gained (12.4% of all drives)
146 drives went for less than 10 yards (37.7% drives)
80 drives resulted in 575 points (20.7%)

Barnes has 261 total drives, 42 for negative yards (16.9%), 111 for less than 10 yards (42.5%), 52 scoring drives (19.9% of all drives) for 381 points (1.46 points per drive)
Frongillo has 114 total drives, 5 for negative yards (4.4%), 31 for less than 10 yards (27.2%), 29 scoring drives (25.4% of all drives) for 184 points (1.61 points per drive)


What these numbers illustrate is two things. First, Schmitz's offense is very dysfunctional, and either loses yards or gains less than 10 yards close to 40% of the time. When Barnes is the starter, that number goes even higher. Second, when it comes to moving the offense, Frongillo has been a much better quarterback than Barnes. I think just about anyone who has followed the Scots, either from the stands, or from within, believes Frongillo is the best option at QB. At the very least, he has earned the chance to play based on how he did last year and the work he put in during the offseason. The fact that Schmitz only used Frongillo once Barnes could physically not stay on the field this year, despite the fact that he billed the position as an open competition in training camp and actually had Frongillo listed as the starter heading into the season opener against Allegheny, shows a stubborn streak in coach Schmitz that has had a negative effect on the team over the years.

Another thing to note is how Barnes has regressed as a quarterback since his freshman year. We should be seeing the opposite happen, especially since Schmitz also doubles as the quarterbacks coach. This has been somewhat of a theme with past Wooster quarterbacks as well. Justin Schafer and Austin Holter played better when they were underclassmen than they did as seniors.

[nike]

Holla!

[ExTartanPlayer]

...when it comes to moving the offense, Frongillo has been a much better quarterback than Barnes. I think just about anyone who has followed the Scots, either from the stands, or from within, believes Frongillo is the best option at QB.

That is possible. 

However, it's worth noting that Barnes' first two starts last year came against probably the two best teams (and almost certainly the two best defenses) on the schedule, although he certainly didn't light up Oberlin either.  Frongillo did an admirable job thereafter, but it did come against softer competition than Baldwin-Wallace and Wabash.

This year, at a glance it seems that most of Frongillo's work came against Denison, Hiram, and DePauw.  Hiram is certainly the worst defense on the schedule, DePauw gave up more points to EIGHT other teams than they did against Frongillo-led Wooster, and Denison was OK as a team this season but gave up 20+ points to every opponent on the schedule besides WashU (18) and Hiram (10).  So while Frongillo's numbers this season look much better than Barnes, you must consider the level of competition at least a LITTLE!

Frongillo might be better, but assuming that based on the unadjusted stats that you've presented like "percentage of scoring drives" without accounting for quality of the opponents' defense is somewhere between "mildly flawed" and "outright silly."  Basically, seinfeld, you keep posting stats and thoughts that require a lot of work (and I commend you for that) but you also tend to present them in a misleading light or without considering some rather important details.

[sigma one]

As for an approach for scheduling non-conference games for next year, that was done a long time ago.  Those games are already on the schedule.

[WittFootball]

As for an approach for scheduling non-conference games for next year, that was done a long time ago.  Those games are already on the schedule.

Thanks Sigma One.  While searching for Wittenberg's future schedules I stumbled across the NCAC's schedules for 2013 and 2014.  If anyone doesn't already know them they are posted at:

http://www2.northcoast.org/mediacenter/futurescheds

I'm still trying to find Witt's non-conference opponent for 2013.  If anyone knows, please post.  Thanks!

[smedindy]

The unadjusted stats for Barnes and Frongillo are the exact reason that Football Outsiders uses dVoa and adjusts for defense on any raw statistical measure.

[nike]

What I can say having seen nearly every home game and a goodly number of road games the last three years is that Barnes has definitely not progressed as a QB in his time at Wooster. Last two years I have been a vocal supporter of Barnes on here and even on campus and at the games.  But in watching him this year, allowing for not great talent around him, he is not doing anything any better than the last two years. Never really understood the offensive scheme of things and what Wooster's game plan is.  Very predictable from the stands.
So I would start with Frongillo. He has always been a better passer. What I saw in Belton every year were better decisions, better passes, better reads, etc. He grew each year as a QB. But he certainly did have more talent.
I would go with Frongillo to begin with, unless Hohl grows six inches.