FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

You guys really want to kick Barnes out?  With a year of eligibility left?  Can we send a car over to get him?

[smedindy]

I'm sure his credits will transfer pretty easily...

[nike]

Not saying that.  Just saying that Barnes at least from what I have seen the last three years has not gotten much better. I remember when Belton was a freshman and maybe even a sophamore there were some on here suggesting the back up QB. But Belton kept improving. Barnes has not and I at one point thought he could become the next Belton of the league. At least I was hoping.
Certainly talent helps.
Look forward to one day hearing in the future more about Wabash's funky inexplicable losses to Allegheny and Oberlin from Wabash folks, if they are one day up to it. Still cannot figure it out other than that old axiom, "...and that's why they play the game."

[wally_wabash]

I think the thing that holds Richard Barnes back more than anything else is that he doesn't have any help whatsoever.  If I'm a defensive coordinator, which I'm not, but if I were and I were getting my team ready to play against Wooster, I'm putting a circle around Richard Barnes and telling my guys "See that guy.  That guy is the one guy on this team that is better than you.  Get him."  And that's pretty much my game plan.  Harass Barnes relentlessly with as many people as I can possibly free up on any given play to do so.  That might be why things look particularly tough when he's in there.  Frongillo is a nice player for sure, but he doesn't demand the same kind of attention that Barnes does.  The whole thing changes if Wooster has an above average running back or receivers that command double teams or could reliably catch passes (Wooster drops more passes than anybody I've seen over the last several years).  As it is though, the sole focus of a defense playing against Wooster is to get Richard Barnes. 

[seinfeld]

Following up on the previous post I made, which was trying to highlight the dysfunctional nature of Schmitz's spread offense, in particular when Barnes is the quarterback, here are some more numbers that demonstrate how, as I like to say, "unsustainable" the offense is. In other words, the offense seemingly goes backwards as often as it goes forwards. This is really demonstrated when you compare how often an offensive play loses yards vs. making a big play (20 yards or more).

2012:
695 total offensive plays
94 offensive plays lost yards (13.4% of all plays)
31 plays went for 20 or more yards (4.5% of all plays)

Barnes - 514 plays, Wooster lost yards on 73 plays when he was QB (14.2% of all plays), gained 20+ yards on a play 21 times (4.1%)
Frongillo - 127 plays, Wooster lost yards on 13 plays when he was QB (10.2%), gained 20+ yards on a play 8 times (6.3%)
Hohl - 54 plays, Wooster lost yards on 8 plays when he was QB (14.8%), gained 20+ yards on a play 2 times (3.7%)

2011:
669 total offensive plays
73 offensive plays lost yards (10.9% of all plays)
30 plays went for 20 or more yards (4.5% of all plays)

Barnes - 207 plays, Wooster lost yards on 31 plays when he was QB (15% of all plays), gained 20+ yards on a play 6 times (2.9%)
Frongillo - 462 plays, Wooster lost yards on 42 plays when he was QB (9.1%), gained 20+ yards on a play 24 times (5.2%)

2010:
680 total offensive plays
85 offensive plays lost yards (12.5% of all plays)
30 plays went for 20 or more yards (4.4% of all plays)

Barnes - 644 plays, Wooster lost yards on 85 plays when he was QB (13.2% of all plays), gained 20+ yards on a play 29 times (4.5%)
Frongillo - 36 plays, Wooster lost yards on 0 plays when he was QB (0%), gained 20+ yards on a play 1 time (2.8%)


Last 3 Seasons:
Team: 2044 total offensive plays
252 offensive plays lost yards (12.3% of all plays)
91 plays went for 20 or more yards (4.5% of all plays)

Barnes - 1365 plays, Wooster lost yards on 189 plays when he was QB (13.9% of all plays), gained 20+ yards on a play 56 times (4.1%)
Frongillo - 625 plays, Wooster lost yards on 55 plays when he was QB (8.8% of all plays), gained 20+ yards on a play 33 times (5.3%)


Another element of Wooster that I've noticed while Schmitz has been the head coach is how often Wooster loses close games, or is unable to mount comebacks from deficits that aren't insurmountable. Wooster has trailed by 7 points or less heading into the 4th quarter in 19 games under Schmitz. Wooster has only come back to win 4 of those games (Oberlin in 2005 down by 6 points, Hiram in 2007 down by 1 point, Earlham in 2008 down by 1 point, and Wash U. in 2009 by three points). The combined records of these teams was 11-29.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Seinfeld:

1) please stop pretending that the level of competition isn't a factor in the Barnes-Frongillo comparison.

2) please run the numbers on #of plays that go for no gain or loss vs. # of plays that go for 20+ yards for another team to give some basis for comparison. These numbers sound strong in a vacuum but are meaningless without some baseline comparison.

[ADAWGISADAWG4LIFE]

How would you guys describe the officiating in the NCAC? I believe the Adrian v Franklin game drew NCAC officials, just curious what to expect.

[HScoach]

How would you guys describe the officiating in the NCAC? I believe the Adrian v Franklin game drew NCAC officials, just curious what to expect.

Historically, the NCAC officials have been the worst group that we see at Mount.   Just hope we don't get them in the semi's against MHB.

[wally_wabash]

How would you guys describe the officiating in the NCAC? I believe the Adrian v Franklin game drew NCAC officials, just curious what to expect.

NCAC officials have great personalities. 

[ADAWGISADAWG4LIFE]

Cant say those two reviews of the officials make me optimistic. The only upside I guess is that they shouldnt favor either team as they are unrelated to either...would have liked to read some glowing reviews though!

[wally_wabash]

Cant say those two reviews of the officials make me optimistic. The only upside I guess is that they shouldnt favor either team as they are unrelated to either...would have liked to read some glowing reviews though!

Yeah, sorry bud.  Game officials notwithstanding, I think Adrian's bigger problem tomorrow is Jonny West.  It's an interesting contrast of styles up there in Michigan this weekend.  Should be a good game. 

[sigma one]

Let me take a (brief?) crack at the question of why Wabash lost to Allegheny and Oberlin this year (at home no less).  This will be too superficial for some, but here goes.  The word inexplicable has been used several times, and that's a perfect word.  Who would have thought those losses would occur.  Football is a strange game, and the "any given Saturday . . ." prevails.  At a later time, I'm might go through the dIII schedules for the last two or three years and try to find major upsets.  Still, two of these games in the same year is highly unusual.
     So, for starters, this Wabash team was quite (nearly) a powerful and resiliant as past teams.  Before anyone throws stones, this is not to suggest that Wabash was not very good.  They were good, and for stretches exceptionally good.  Watching all year, many did not see the confidence, continuity, and killer instinct of years' past.  Emotional edge appeared to be a problem at times.  The team was young, very young on defense.  Nine starters will return there, I think (loss of Clegg, a Hodges, and Koop--and Koop missed half the season).  And non-starters made significant contributions because of injuries on both sides of the ball. 
     In 2011 Wabash barely beat Allegheny in Meadville, the game going into the fourth quarter before Wabash won by a TD.    Maybe that gave the Gators some confidence.  Allegheny employed the same game plan this year as last year, and if you watch the tape, you will see that everything worked.  There were some good play calls, amazing catches by receivers, and tough defensive play.  Wabash appeared frustrated, and that resulted in some tightness as the game went along.  Still, the teams played into overtime, remember.  And a field goal was the result.  Even then, Wabash had a chance to win; they missed their FG; Allegheny made theirs.  As the game progressed, you could feel the noose tighten.  What plagued Wabash at times all year, inconsistency on offense, was apparent all day.  I've heard many say that Wabash Lost rather than that Allegheny Won.  But give the Gators credit for exploiting the weakness they found.
     The Oberlin game was different. Again, think of last year when Oberlin stayed close until very late.  Maybe they came in, too, thinking they had a legitimate chance if things fell their way with a strong group of seniors.  The Yoemen scored on big plays, and the longer the game went the more desperate and confused the Wabash secondary seemed to get.  Once Oberlin got the lead, in a game with conference title implications, the Wabash defensive backs appeared to think that they had to gamble and in one instance they just flat out got fooled by a clever gadget..  Oberlin was good enough at QB and receiver to take advantage.  You might say that their seniors had careers days, and they had enough talent and intellingence to prevail.  They always have been well coached, even when they did not have the players to mount any kind of challenge.  Still at question is why the Wabash offense could not respond, but we know that when things start to go south the entire team is sometimes out of sync and the other team becomes confident, until, argh.  Oberlin won with superior play.
     Finally,  how a team that beat Wittenberg and Ohio Wesleyan losses to Allegheny and Oberlin will forever remain a mystery, although others will have perhaps better analysis than this  The best I can muster is to say that that this year Wabash was not the kind of team, on either offense or defense and despite outstanding performances in some games (and essentiallly 4 shoutouts on the season--Denison scored only a safety) to be entirely consistent, to be able to play with maturity and firepower every week.
     
     As small consolation, Wabash still has not lost more than 2 games in a season during Coach Raeburn's time.  We should check to see how many other teams in dIII have this kind of result and consistency over the past 5 years.  My guess is fewer than 10 with fewer than 10 losses--averaging 2 losses or fewer per year.
     All this said, the operative word is still inexplicable (mysterious, strange, weird, unthinkable, head-scratching, etc. dont' seem to carry the same weight).  And inexplicable means just what it says--unable to be explained, no mattter how we parse the statistics, squad strengths on paper, individual talent, extraneous factors.   I'm out.

[wally_wabash]

As small consolation, Wabash still has not lost more than 2 games in a season during Coach Raeburn's time.  We should check to see how many other teams in dIII have this kind of result and consistency over the past 5 years.  My guess is fewer than 10 with fewer than 10 losses--averaging 2 losses or fewer per year.

I'm on this...will report shortly with my findings. 

Here's the list of teams that have finished with 2 or fewer losses in every season between 2008 and now:

Mary-Hardin Baylor
North Central
Wesley
Wabash
Mount Union
Cal Lutheran

End of list.  North Central's spot is pending a run to a national championship.  Anything less and they fall off. 

[nike]

Let me take a (brief?) crack at the question of why Wabash lost to Allegheny and Oberlin this year (at home no less).  This will be too superficial for some, but here goes.  The word inexplicable has been used several times, and that's a perfect word.  Who would have thought those losses would occur.  Football is a strange game, and the "any given Saturday . . ." prevails.  At a later time, I'm might go through the dIII schedules for the last two or three years and try to find major upsets.  Still, two of these games in the same year is highly unusual.
     So, for starters, this Wabash team was quite (nearly) a powerful and resiliant as past teams.  Before anyone throws stones, this is not to suggest that Wabash was not very good.  They were good, and for stretches exceptionally good.  Watching all year, many did not see the confidence, continuity, and killer instinct of years' past.  Emotional edge appeared to be a problem at times.  The team was young, very young on defense.  Nine starters will return there, I think (loss of Clegg, a Hodges, and Koop--and Koop missed half the season).  And non-starters made significant contributions because of injuries on both sides of the ball. 
     In 2011 Wabash barely beat Allegheny in Meadville, the game going into the fourth quarter before Wabash won by a TD.    Maybe that gave the Gators some confidence.  Allegheny employed the same game plan this year as last year, and if you watch the tape, you will see that everything worked.  There were some good play calls, amazing catches by receivers, and tough defensive play.  Wabash appeared frustrated, and that resulted in some tightness as the game went along.  Still, the teams played into overtime, remember.  And a field goal was the result.  Even then, Wabash had a chance to win; they missed their FG; Allegheny made theirs.  As the game progressed, you could feel the noose tighten.  What plagued Wabash at times all year, inconsistency on offense, was apparent all day.  I've heard many say that Wabash Lost rather than that Allegheny Won.  But give the Gators credit for exploiting the weakness they found.
     The Oberlin game was different. Again, think of last year when Oberlin stayed close until very late.  Maybe they came in, too, thinking they had a legitimate chance if things fell their way with a strong group of seniors.  The Yoemen scored on big plays, and the longer the game went the more desperate and confused the Wabash secondary seemed to get.  Once Oberlin got the lead, in a game with conference title implications, the Wabash defensive backs appeared to think that they had to gamble and in one instance they just flat out got fooled by a clever gadget..  Oberlin was good enough at QB and receiver to take advantage.  You might say that their seniors had careers days, and they had enough talent and intellingence to prevail.  They always have been well coached, even when they did not have the players to mount any kind of challenge.  Still at question is why the Wabash offense could not respond, but we know that when things start to go south the entire team is sometimes out of sync and the other team becomes confident, until, argh.  Oberlin won with superior play.
     Finally,  how a team that beat Wittenberg and Ohio Wesleyan losses to Allegheny and Oberlin will forever remain a mystery, although others will have perhaps better analysis than this  The best I can muster is to say that that this year Wabash was not the kind of team, on either offense or defense and despite outstanding performances in some games (and essentiallly 4 shoutouts on the season--Denison scored only a safety) to be entirely consistent, to be able to play with maturity and firepower every week.
     
     As small consolation, Wabash still has not lost more than 2 games in a season during Coach Raeburn's time.  We should check to see how many other teams in dIII have this kind of result and consistency over the past 5 years.  My guess is fewer than 10 with fewer than 10 losses--averaging 2 losses or fewer per year.
     All this said, the operative word is still inexplicable (mysterious, strange, weird, unthinkable, head-scratching, etc. dont' seem to carry the same weight).  And inexplicable means just what it says--unable to be explained, no mattter how we parse the statistics, squad strengths on paper, individual talent, extraneous factors.   I'm out.

Excellent!
Will catch some Witt tomorrow, but tonight defending Ohio div4 state champion Norwayne plays in Stow Ohio. Small, tight knit community right outside of Wooster.  Not a close game this year.  Have two D1 prospects and several that would look great in black and gold.
Should be a great night.  Last year's championship game against Kenton and qb Mauk worth checking out on YouTube. The last quarter or even the last five minutes.   

[old wabash]

As small consolation, Wabash still has not lost more than 2 games in a season during Coach Raeburn's time.  We should check to see how many other teams in dIII have this kind of result and consistency over the past 5 years.  My guess is fewer than 10 with fewer than 10 losses--averaging 2 losses or fewer per year.

I'm on this...will report shortly with my findings. 

Here's the list of teams that have finished with 2 or fewer losses in every season between 2008 and now:

Mary-Hardin Baylor
North Central
Wesley
Wabash
Mount Union
Cal Lutheran

End of list.  North Central's spot is pending a run to a national championship.  Anything less and they fall off.

good analysis, sigma one!!
especially of something so "inexplicable"!! lol
i wondered how long it had been since bash lost to a team that finished .500 (or below)?
let alone two .500 (or below) teams in one year?
i'm no expert but have seen alot of bash football over the years, and this year was strange?
i know we were missing a couple of big names but i thought the overall potential this year might be the best we would have ever seen!
but think they did not perform as well as '02 or '11 imho!