FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

Too early to predict league standings?  I may or may not have projected every league game yesterday.  I need a hobby. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Too early to predict league standings?  I may or may not have projected every league game yesterday.  I need a hobby.

Well, I'd say that counts as a hobby, right?

I also may have projected the entire regular season for each UAA team...

[wally_wabash]

Too early to predict league standings?  I may or may not have projected every league game yesterday.  I need a hobby.

Well, I'd say that counts as a hobby, right?

First Pool C projection is next on my to do list.   

[wally_wabash]

So here's how I see the league playing out...bottom to top, with a tad bit of commentary. 

10- Hiram (0-9, 0-10): 13-0 was Hiram's closest margin of defeat last year.  The Terriers scored 7 or less in 7 of their 10 games last year.  Until I get evidence to the contrary, I just can't pick Hiram to win a game. 

9- Oberlin (1-8, 1-9): I hate to do it because I have a soft spot for the Yeomen, but man do they have a lot missing from last year's team.  And Oberlin doesn't exactly have next man up depth...it takes them a couple of years to retool after big graduation attrition.  I think Oberlin and Hiram are headed for a week 11 0-9 vs. 0-9 game. 

8- Denison (2-7, 3-7): After a glorified scrimmage with Earlham to open the season, Denision's first four league games are: @Wabash, @OWU, vs. DePauw, @Witt.  So there's that.  The Big Red must replace their top QB, RB (who was also DU's receptions leader), and WR.  While I think that Denison has been building some sneaky depth over there, I'm not comfortable saying that this season will be any kind of improvement over last season.  League wins over Hiram and Oberlin this year while Denison kind of resets a bit. 

7- Kenyon (3-6, 4-6): Little bit of a hat tip to the work Monfiletto has done that I'm leaning Kenyon in the season finale at Denison.  I'm doing this despite Kenyon not having a quarterback on their roster that has thrown a college pass.  Or maybe even played in a college game.  And losing their top running back.  The major difference this year for Kenyon will obviously be their schedule, and they'll get games @Wabash and vs. Witt in consecutive weeks right there in the middle of the year.

6- Wooster (5-4, 5-5): Yeah, I've got Wooster going from a team that only beat winless teams last year to a 5-4 league team this year.  I think they'll get a new coach push much like Kenyon got last year.  I still think Richard Barnes is awesome.  And I think Denison and Kenyon regress enough this season to give Wooster a clear advantage in those games.  I've got Wooster losing to the top three, then splitting their games with Allegheny and DePauw to get to their 5 league wins. 

5- Allegheny (5-4, 5-5): Fairly standard .500 ish projection for Allegheny.  Same kind of deal as with Wooster...not as good as the top three by a good margin, better than my bottom four by a good margin, and on par with my middle three.  I've got Allegheny beating the Scots at home and losing at DePauw. 

4- DePauw (5-4, 6-4): I expect a big bounce back from DePauw this year.  They've got a coach who we know has the goods.  They've got a new rug to play on.  There's definitely a spark in that program that hasn't been there for a couple of years.  The roster is still a little thin, but most of their players that got thrown into the fire last year now have that experience and will have superior coaching to go along with their experience.  Talent is going to get them against the top three, but they shouldn't have trouble with my bottom four this time around.  I do have them getting tripped up by Wooster at home (by reason of my Barnes crush), but if DePauw can get the six wins I think they can get, I think that's a big year for them while Coach Lynch gets that thing pointed in the right direction. 

Break time...you'll notice that I had a 3-way tie for 4th.  I did break that tie because I was compelled to do it...DePauw is 4th based on fewest road losses, then Allegheny over Wooster by virtue of their h2h result. Back to the countdown and the cream of the crop...any of these remaining teams can run the table or win the league or both.  All are playoff contenders in my opinion and the h2h's between these three teams this fall are not to be missed.  Here's how I see it shaking out....

3- OWU (7-2, 8-2): Mostly, this is a thing where I'm uncomfortable picking the Bishops on the road.  I trust Wabash's defense to keep this group out of the end zone (we saw this last year).  I do think OWU could score some serious points against Wittenberg, but I also think Witt's 2013 offense can get up and down on OWU.  That's going to be a track meet.  There is an interesting schedule quirk here in that OWU gets Witt the week before Witt's game vs. Wabash which I believe plays to OWU's favor.  That OWU/Witt game is a fascinating matchup to me this year.  And they play for a skull, which is not any less awesome than it was the first time I heard about it.  Unfortunately for the Bishops, I think the Tigers just nip them in this one, giving them a second loss and ending their shot at a second league championship and a playoff spot. 

2- Wittenberg (8-1, 8-2): I've already broken down Witt/OWU which leaves Witt/Wabash to decide the title.  I really like the way ER and BJ Hammer have handled their games with Wittenberg, I like that Wabash is at home.  Obviously Wittenberg will have a senior quarterback with multi-year starting experience (not to mention a particularly sour taste in his mouth after being shut down by the LGs last year).  It's going to be a whale of a game in November against, according to my predictions, undefeated teams in league play...the league championship will be at stake on November 9 when these two get together, as it should be. 

1- Wabash (9-0, 10-0): I'll get some homer flack for this, but there it is.  Yes, I know Wabash lost to Allegheny and Oberlin last year.  I also know that they beat OWU 28-0 in the biggest game OWU has played in a decade (on homecoming no less) and beat Witt in their house (again on homecoming).  You know what the potential is for this team...so the question is do you think Wabash is more likely be the team that won at OWU and Witt or are they more likely to be the team that didn't show up against Allegheny and couldn't catch up to Oberlin? Do you think those players, most of whom are back, learned lessons about one game at a time last year?  I kind of do.  The elephant in the room is quarterback, and I'm well aware that if Wabash gets average quarterback play, the equation changes.  I think Wabash will get above average play from that position...aided greatly by a stout running game (Holmes!) and the league's best defense.  And I think this year's team is going to have a strong desire to re-establish their swagger on the home field. 

So that's what I've got.  I know I'm going to be in the minority with the Wabash pick...I just think people are undervaluing the Little Giants because they lost a game to Oberlin (nevermind that Oberlin was miles better than most people would ever realize).  Again, while I think Wabash will run the table, I wouldn't be surprised to see OWU do it or to see Witt do it.  All three are going to be outstanding teams this year that I think are playoff quality teams...teams that can win at least one game should they get to the tournament.  We haven't had that in a long, long time in this league.  It should be fun. 

[BashDad]

And.... Boom. The 2013 D3Boards.com season has just begun. I'm thrilled.

[D3MAFAN]

And.... Boom. The 2013 D3Boards.com season has just begun. I'm thrilled.

Yup...http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrQ2pKMwQC4

[waf56]

Yes! This is what I have been waiting all summer for. It sounds like there will be a couple excellant QB options reporting to Cville in a few weeks. With a workhorse like Holmes, and the bigger games coming later in the year to allow the new QB to get comfortable I would not be suprised to see your predictions come true. 

[smedindy]

The full-round robin will eliminate someone with a backdoor way into the "A" bid, which is good.

While I think (hope) Wabash can run the table, I wouldn't be shocked nor stunned if there's a three-way fiasco tie between Wabash, Witt and OWU.

[sigma one]

At least two quality QBs based on their high school teams' records and their individual stats:  both from first-rate programs in high-letter Indiana high school programs; both their teams won championships.  I've said two; maybe there are three or even four.  One from Ohio, closely related to a player who helped make Wabash tough over the last three years.  The fourth a long shot at QB (probably will switch to another position, if not immediately certainly after some time.  I'd classify him as the cliched "athlete.").  In fact, maybe one of the others will eventually also switch positions.  Having said this, there are two strong returning candidates, including one, who filled in well last year, and who is a superior athlete, also playing a strong role in basketball.  The other a rising sophomore from Arizona , who showed well in Red Squad games and in the spring.  There has not been a consistent freshman starter at QB since Jake Knott, and I expect that Raeburn will want to go with an older player (at least early on) unless one of the freshmen knocks his socks off.   
     All of the QBs should make for a spirited camp.  Remember that Raeburn has not been shy about alternating QBs, ala his mentor at Mount Union. 
     Still, QB is the one big unknown for the Little Giants.
     Wally, thanks for your analysis and picks.  You study these things hard.  In a week or so, I think I will add some comments that will differ a bit from yours, but not much.   OWU, Wabash, Witt:  wouldn't it be if they traded victories, all finishing with one loss.  I don't expect this, though.  And based on the last three years I'm reasonably sure that we will see at least one of them upset by another NCAC opponent. 
     Indiana starts playng high school football in mid August.  Not long before at least somethng happens to merit attention on Friday and Saturday.   
     

[wally_wabash]

While I think (hope) Wabash can run the table, I wouldn't be shocked nor stunned if there's a three-way fiasco tie between Wabash, Witt and OWU.

Nor would I.  And because it's never to early to prognosticate an NCAC three way tiebreak situation based on the results of games that I completely made up, here's how those situations would break down (with the one huge caveat being that these three teams can not lose to a team other than one of the other two)...this is a fantastic idea. 

We'll start with the easiest scenario first:

-- OWU d. Wabash, Witt d. OWU (road loss for OWU), and Wabash d. Witt (road loss for Witt):
Wash the h2h's, wash the results vs. common opponents, and then fewest road losses leads you to Wabash as the winner (zero road losses vs. one each for the other two).  Wabash has a distinct advantage here in that they don't play either of the other two presumed top teams on the road...meaning they ought to have a better likelihood of not losing on the road which is good for tiebreak purposes. 

-- Wabash d. OWU (road loss for OWU), OWU d. Witt, Witt d. Wabash:
Wash the h2h's, wash the results vs. common opponents, and then fewest road losses leads you to eliminate OWU (their 1 loss vs. zero for the other two).  Back to the top with Witt and Wabash and Witt wins on the h2h.  Boo. 

And those are the two ways it can play out.  Seems like there should be more scenarios, but there aren't.  OWU's disadvantage, aside from simply having to play those two games on the road and the inherent difficulty therein, is that any 8-1 situation necessitates their losing a road game which kills them in any tiebreak situation involving Witt and Wabash. 

     Wally, thanks for your analysis and picks.  You study these things hard.  In a week or so, I think I will add some comments that will differ a bit from yours, but not much.   OWU, Wabash, Witt:  wouldn't it be if they traded victories, all finishing with one loss.  I don't expect this, though.  And based on the last three years I'm reasonably sure that we will see at least one of them upset by another NCAC opponent.      

Looking around for those potential upset games and I've found a couple.  First on that list is Wabash @ Allegheny.  That's a homecoming game for the Gators, Allegheny has a habit of making life difficult for Wabash, and it will be the first career road start for whoever winds up being Wabash's quarterback.  Definitely circle that game as one to grind your teeth to.  Wabash then turns right around and goes to Wooster the next week in another game I have flagged.  Wooster has a new coach who will probably be doing all kinds of new things and they spend the previous two weeks playing Oberlin and Hiram which means they may not have to show too many cards on film.  Wooster is a serious wild card...if Colaprete and staff can deploy an offense that unlocks the things that I think Richard Barnes can do then watch out.  I don't really see a lot of resistance for OWU and Wittenberg.  Those two have favorable remaining road schedules, and I think any home field advantage they get vs. somebody like Wooster or DePauw or Allegheny, plus their talent edge in 2013, makes those games very unlikely to be lost.  Occasionally you'll see Allegheny give Wittenberg a hard time, but in week 11, on a senior day situation in Springfield with the league title and the playoff spot on the line, I can't talk myself into the Gators staying close.  All of that said, Allegheny and Oberlin both did the deed in Little Giant Stadium just last year and nobody would have predicted those results so anything can (and sometimes does) happen. 

[sigma one]

Applause, Wally.  On losing to other teams, you reasonably point out the best possibilities.  Looking down the schedules this is what I see as dangers--keeping in mind that who would have thought of Oberlin being that dangerous last year, at least for Wabash.  OWU:  they get Allegheny at home before getting on the bus to Indiana.  They then get DPU at home.  That's a tough three-game stretch, going with an assumption that DPU will be much improved, as we all have been.  They also go to Witt and Woo in two of their last three games.  At Wabash, at Witt, at Woo:  any of those is a potential loss, going with your ideas about Woo, Barnes, and the new staff.  Their advantage v. Woo might be that they have a lot of games to watch whatever the Scots are doing offensively. 
     Wittenberg:  after Butler in their opener (which should itself be some kind of preview of the Witt O and D, but not much as that game relates to the NCAC unless they win or stay very close), Witt goes to DPU.  I don't think they can lose this game, but. . . ?  To end the season they get OWU at home, Wabash on the road, and Allegheny at home.  That's their demanding stretch.  They play Wooster at home in mid-season.  When was the last time Woo defeated them?
     Wabash:  there should be a bit of concern about Hanover to begin the season.  I don't know why exactly I say this, but with a new QB and Hanover having already played a game, well . . .(This, of course, like the Witt/Butler game does not affect the NCAC, but it would influence the playoff selection process should Wabash lose.)  The game at the swamp, even with its artificial turf, is a potential trap;  Allegheny is solid every year and knows it can defeat Wabash.  Then comes Wooster on the road.  So, two long trips back to back.  After these two, the LG's return home to OWU.  Allegheny, Wooster, OWU can make or break Wabash success.  FInally, the season ends with Witt and DPU.  If things play out for both Wabash and Witt, their late-season game should draw a capacity crowd to Litle Giant Stadium.  And weather could be a factor that late in the season.  Then, down to DPU, which following Witt could be dangerous.  DPU will have had a full season under Lynch, and they have beaten Wabash before when the LG's were pointed toward the playoffs.
     A last note:  how good will Kenyon be having to play the full round robin?  Could they spring an upset?  They play both OWU and Witt at home.  Seriously, there are missteps out there for all three teams, even though like most I would be surprised if any of the three lost to anyone but one of the other two.


     

[short]

Put me on record....

THIS IS WITTENBERG'S BEST TEAM SINCE 2000!

Better than 2009, 2002, 2001.  Their QB play will be the best in the NCAC since Jake Knott.  The fact that we are talking about a 3 way tie is almost crazy to me.  Wittenberg didn't play very good for a 3 games in a row last season (Wooster, Case, Wabash) after that the Offense was unstoppable by college defenses (see Heidelberg 412 yards for Florance, and 52 points), only weather and injury slowed the tigers down late in the season (see Hobart 35 mph winds and no Dehnke).  Good Luck to all I hope to see a three way tie, but just don't think you know how Awesome this Wittenberg team is.

[wally_wabash]

THIS IS WITTENBERG'S BEST TEAM SINCE 2000!

Agreed.

Their QB play will be the best in the NCAC since Jake Knott. 

False. There's a big list of great QBs from this league since Knott. Harbaugh, Huffman, Hudson, Rummel, Savage, Huff, Belton. Florence may have a bigger year than some of these guys, but all of them?  I'll have to wait and see.

[BashDad]

Put me on record....

THIS IS WITTENBERG'S BEST TEAM SINCE 2000!

Better than 2009, 2002, 2001.  Their QB play will be the best in the NCAC since Jake Knott.  The fact that we are talking about a 3 way tie is almost crazy to me.  Wittenberg didn't play very good for a 3 games in a row late season (Wooster, Case, Wabash) after that the Offense was unstoppable by college defenses (see Heidelberg 412 yards for Florance, and 52 points), only weather and injury slowed the tigers down late in the season (see Hobart 35 mph winds and no Dehnke).  Good Luck to all I hope to see a three way tie, but just don't think you know how Awesome this Wittenberg team is.

Florence against Heidelberg was legit. He looked great. If that was an actual, accurate reflection of him as a player week-to-week then, yeah--he's gonna have as good a year as we've seen in a while. That was a huge win and he was a big reason for it.

However.

Witt played three good teams last year: Hobart, Heidelberg, and Wabash. They lost two of those games. Florence had 92 yards--total--against Hobart and 150 total against Wabash. He was not present. I'd just keep that in mind before beginning comparisons with Jake Knott or whoever else you've just thrown him into conversation with. Florence has had essentially one hell of a game. But that's kinda it. The jury, as they say, is out.

As for Wittenberg winning the league, I don't know--maybe. Just like maybe Wabash will. I really don't think there's any subtle-yet-definitive sign that you see, that we don't. Witt is going to be good and I don't think you're alone in thinking that.

But the best team since 2000? I just don't think so. They have a better QB, but that's it. The Witt D in 2002 was waaaay better (-800 yards allowed better) than last year's group and I don't see any reason to expect they're gonna make up that ground. I'd also put Grove over Dehnke and Skip Ivery over any of your current receivers. So, yeah, I disagree.

As an addendum, two opinions without a home in the above:
1. Witt opens with Butler. They are going to lose.
2. OWU is playing for third place. Full stop.

[fantastic50]

     Wittenberg:  after Butler in their opener (which should itself be some kind of preview of the Witt O and D, but not much as that game relates to the NCAC unless they win or stay very close), Witt goes to DPU.  I don't think they can lose this game, but. . . ?  To end the season they get OWU at home, Wabash on the road, and Allegheny at home.  That's their demanding stretch.  They play Wooster at home in mid-season.  When was the last time Woo defeated them?

Wooster beat Witt 27-6 in 2008, in the last game before Wooster added artificial turf and lights; that game had rain, then snow, then a stiff wind, and lots of mud.  Two years later, Wooster led in the final two minutes, before falling 23-22.  However, the last time Wooster beat Witt in Springfield?  That would be 1949, a generation before the Scots' new head coach was born.