FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

Pat Coleman · July 27, 2013, 10:07:57 AM

Totals aren't particularly instructive when teams play a differing number of games.

BashDad · July 27, 2013, 10:28:59 AM

Quote from: short on July 27, 2013, 02:09:04 AM
Wally, he already has had a bigger year than ALL OF THEM! Total Offense of 3326 is best on the list.

Ahem.

wally_wabash · July 27, 2013, 10:37:24 AM

You forgot a certain stat line from 2005....which IS the best season since Knott.

Also, and not that I necessarily agree with this but it is a fact, the people who get a vote in such things don't think Florence is the best QB returning to the league THIS season let alone the best since Knott.

You're right that Witt is going to be very, very, very good this year. Particularly on offense. But they lack a defense that makes me believe they are a clear cut, no-brainer favorite to win the league this year.

Dr. Acula · July 27, 2013, 11:59:51 AM

Quote from: wally_wabash on July 27, 2013, 10:37:24 AM
You forgot a certain stat line from 2005....which IS the best season since Knott.

Also, and not that I necessarily agree with this but it is a fact, the people who get a vote in such things don't think Florence is the best QB returning to the league THIS season let alone the best since Knott.

You're right that Witt is going to be very, very, very good this year. Particularly on offense. But they lack a defense that makes me believe they are a clear cut, no-brainer favorite to win the league this year.

I don't follow Witt closely at all so I don't know if it's a big deal, but they also lost their DC of the last 5-6 years when Waddle left for the HC gig at Marietta in December. Maybe it's a seamless transition, but still it's a new DC running things.

sigma one · July 27, 2013, 01:40:45 PM

Those Florence stats are impressive. Being a stats guy myself, there is a good argument to be made for Florence being as good as or better than those others on the list--in terms of his yards. He has multiple tools. Still, there is his senior season to play. One mark of a great QB is leadership; from viewing Witt last year he appears to have that, too. In no way do I mean to belittle Florence, his accomplishments, or his team's success. If he continues this year to do what he has being doing, then I would mark him as equal, maybe even nosing above, the best in the last 15 years in the NCAC.
By the way, when people look at Knott's completion percentage, they often say that it is very low for a quality QB. Compare his percentage to Harbaugh, Hudson, Huff among Wabash QBs. True enough. They were all "more accurate." Can you take my word (maybe not) that you had to see Knott play, throw, lead his team, escape the rush, make decisions. Like Andrew Luck with the Colts last year, he threw the ball down the field; no dink and dunk in the offense Ceighton created for him. I've yet to see another NCAC QB (again no disrespect to any of them) throw the deep out and perhaps the deep post like Knott could.
If Florence can match his junior season, or exceed it, or maybe evern stay close to it, I'll be the first to say that he deserves all the recognition he receives. In the pantheon of career accomplioshments by NCAC QBs, he is trending toward the top. Among those things he and his Tigers have to do this year is defeat Wabash on the road.

fantastic50 · July 27, 2013, 10:10:51 PM

Quote from: wally_wabash on July 26, 2013, 11:59:09 AM
Quote from: BashDad on July 26, 2013, 10:43:34 AM
Quote from: fantastic50 on July 26, 2013, 09:52:24 AM
However, the last time Wooster beat Witt in Springfield? That would be 1949, a generation before the Scots' new head coach was born.

Wow.

I feel like this is ripe for one of those graphics about what the #1 music single and #1 box office movie was the last time this happened. I think you're also obligated to include the price of a postage stamp in said graphic.

Okay, it's July, I'll bite...
- In 1949, gas cost 26 cents a gallon, a loaf of bread was 14 cents, and first-class postage stamps were 3 cents
- Chevy was rolling out the first Bel Air (the 1950 model), at $1750
- Notre Dame won the football national title (in final AP poll voting that took place before the regular season even finished) led by Heisman Trophy winning end Leon Hart
- Jackie Robinson and Ted Williams were the MLB MVPs
- George Orwell's "1984" was published
- "All the King's Men" was on the silver screen (and would win the Best Picture award early in the next year)
- "South Pacific" premiered on Broadway
- Billy Joel and Bruce Springsteen were born

Back to the Witt winning streak over Wooster at home, it is notable that the two rarely played during the 1950s and 1960s, and have played annually only since 1989. The Old Tigers have won 16 consecutive games over the Scots in Springfield; the last close game between the two at Edwards-Mauer field came in 2003, when the score was 35-31. Incidentally, after that 1949 game, Wooster didn't beat Witt anywhere until 1997, after 20 consecutive defeats.

This is a substantial streak, but not quite in the same league with these...
- Notre Dame over Navy in football 43 years in a row, from 1964 through 2006
- North Carolina 56-0 all-time at home against Clemson in basketball (1926-present)
- Wooster beat Oberlin 71 consecutive times in baseball, a run that ended in 2009

ExTartanPlayer · July 28, 2013, 07:33:35 AM

Quote from: smedindy on February 09, 2012, 01:58:14 PM
You wonder how long term these new coaches will be if they have a relatively quick success. Say Kenyon in 2013 goes 6-4 or OWU in 2013 goes 8-2 - I am sure other programs will come knocking on their door.

HOLY @#$%! I was skimming through the old posts and stumbled upon this gem...I know it's not quite a "prediction" but, smedindy, when you typed this did you have ANY idea that not only would Kenyon/OWU actually match those records, but in fact would both be a game BETTER than this?

Which goes to support my original reason for skimming through the old posts: declaring Wittenberg the favorite is fine, but acting as though it's a foregone conclusion that they're going to win the league is a bit much. Strange things always can happen in Division III football. Chemistry means a lot, you have to have good luck when it comes to injuries, and sometimes it's about just getting the bounces to go your way. I get knocked for bringing up my own experience sometimes, but it's pertinent here: I played for an 11-1 playoff team at CMU that brought back a TON (two 1,000-yard rushers, four starters on the OL plus the TE, the entire defensive line, both OLB's, and a DB that led the team in tackles)...and finished 7-4 the following season. YOU NEVER KNOW.

I've made this point several times before and I'll make it again, citing the Oberlin-over-Wabash game last year as an example: there are some really, really good football players on almost every Division III team. Many of the "mediocre" squads are full of guys that were team captains in high school, played for regional and state championships, and are capable of raising their game a level on the right day. Which is a big reason that following Division III football is so damned great. I've had the pleasure of interviewing several coaches for Kickoff this year and one thing that came up in nearly every conversation is the quality of the young men that play this game in Division III. My closest friends from college ball run the gamut from investment bankers to engineers to architects to PhD's, and there is a new crop of those playing for almost every D3 school every year. Kids of that caliber are bound to pull an occasional surprise now & then.

Sorry to go off on a tangent there. Just seemed relevant.

short · July 29, 2013, 09:53:35 AM

ALL,

I am not saying that Wittenberg will win the NCAC (but I do think they will) in 2013. I am saying when you look at all the teams what they have returning and after watching Witt play late last season they are the favorits. On paper they are awesome, plus I saw them in person look really really good. I think the Defense is much better than would others think. Top 3 in most areas in the NCAC, they will be fine on Defense. Plus the Offense is loaded! The fact is anyone COULD win the NCAC but how you can look objectively at this and say Wabash or OWU is the favorit is a JOKE! Wittenberg will be the preseason favorit by the coaches, just wait and see.

wally_wabash · July 29, 2013, 10:28:12 AM

Quote from: short on July 29, 2013, 09:53:35 AM
ALL,

I am not saying that Wittenberg will win the NCAC (but I do think they will) in 2013. I am saying when you look at all the teams what they have returning and after watching Witt play late last season they are the favorits. On paper they are awesome, plus I saw them in person look really really good. I think the Defense is much better than would others think. Top 3 in most areas in the NCAC, they will be fine on Defense. Plus the Offense is loaded! The fact is anyone COULD win the NCAC but how you can look objectively at this and say Wabash or OWU is the favorit is a JOKE! Wittenberg will be the preseason favorit by the coaches, just wait and see.

So far, I think I'm the only one that has predicted somebody other than Witt to win...and that came with the caveat that I wouldn't be surprised if any of Wabash/Witt/OWU win the league. It's not a joke, just my opinion, and one that came very tempered.

I would expect the coaches poll to make Witt the favorite and probably by a pretty wide margin. I would also expect Kickoff to predict Wittenberg to win the league. Witt will no doubt have expectations piled on them...BUT: they lost to Wabash last year and they didn't have to deal with OWU. I just can't buy them being a slam dunk favorite here. One of the favorites? For sure. THE favorite...I just don't know about all of that.

wallyworld12 · July 29, 2013, 10:58:05 AM

For the record, the preseason coaches' polls in the NCAC mean very little in what actually happens during the course of the season. In fact, since 2002, only THRICE have the coaches' predicted the eventual conference champion.

Year Preseason Actual
2012 Wabash Witt
2011 Witt Wabash
2010 Witt Witt
2009 Wabash Witt
2008 Witt Wabash
2007 Wabash Wabash
2006 Wabash Witt
2005 Witt Wabash
2004 Wooster Wooster
2003 Wooster Allegheny
2002 Witt Wabash

Granted, in many years, the result turned on the outcome of a single game. Lets not give too much credit to preseason rankings. They are little more than message board fodder.

short · July 29, 2013, 11:04:14 AM

Quote from: wallyworld12 on July 29, 2013, 10:58:05 AM
For the record, the preseason coaches' polls in the NCAC mean very little in what actually happens during the course of the season. In fact, since 2002, only TWICE have the coaches' predicted the eventual conference champion.

Granted, in many years, the result turned on the outcome of a single game. Lets not give too much credit to preseason rankings. They are little more than message board fodder.

Very True. I am looking forward to a great NCAC season! It is fun to be talking about OWU, now we just need Wooster to return to the Sutton days.

BashDad · July 29, 2013, 11:33:59 AM

Quote from: short on July 29, 2013, 09:53:35 AM
I am saying when you look at all the teams what they have returning and after watching Witt play late last season they are the favorits. On paper they are awesome, plus I saw them in person look really really good.

Genuine question: does Witt return more than Wabash? I don't think they do.

And just so we don't get comfortable with this "on paper" stuff-- "on paper" Wabash returns most of the team that led more statistical categories than Witt and beat them at home.

Quote from: short on July 29, 2013, 09:53:35 AM
I think the Defense is much better than would others think. Top 3 in most areas in the NCAC, they will be fine on Defense.

This is not the SEC. If Team X isn't #1 in the NCAC in whatever the category, it's worth little. Top three is not good. That puts them ahead of who, exactly? Depauw? Witt's rushing defense was sixth last year. Oberlin, Kenyon, and Denison were better.

Witt's Defense: Hello, question mark.

wally_wabash · July 29, 2013, 11:50:47 AM

Quote from: wallyworld12 on July 29, 2013, 10:58:05 AM
For the record, the preseason coaches' polls in the NCAC mean very little in what actually happens during the course of the season. In fact, since 2002, only TWICE have the coaches' predicted the eventual conference champion.

Year Preseason Actual
2012 Wabash Witt
2011 Witt Wabash
2010 Witt Witt
2009 Wabash Witt
2008 Witt Wabash
2007 Wabash Wabash
2006 Wabash Witt
2005 Witt Wabash
2004 Witt Wabash
2003 Wooster Allegheny
2002 Witt Wabash

Granted, in many years, the result turned on the outcome of a single game. Lets not give too much credit to preseason rankings. They are little more than message board fodder.

For the sake of completeness, in 2004 the coaches selected Wooster as the favorite (by one point) and Wooster did win the league.

wallyworld12 · July 29, 2013, 11:52:06 AM

Thanks Wally for catching that mistake! That must have been the one press release that had "Media" listed before "Coaches."

wally_wabash · July 29, 2013, 11:55:42 AM

Quote from: BashDad on July 29, 2013, 11:33:59 AM
Quote from: short on July 29, 2013, 09:53:35 AM
I am saying when you look at all the teams what they have returning and after watching Witt play late last season they are the favorits. On paper they are awesome, plus I saw them in person look really really good.

Genuine question: does Witt return more than Wabash? I don't think they do.

And just so we don't get comfortable with this "on paper" stuff-- "on paper" Wabash returns most of the team that led more statistical categories than Witt and beat them at home.

I get the sense that folks are going to need to be reminded of this multiple times between now and November.