FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[ExTartanPlayer]

I think the Defense is much better than would others think. Top 3 in most areas in the NCAC, they will be fine on Defense.

This is not the SEC. If Team X isn't #1 in the NCAC in whatever the category, it's worth little. Top three is not good. That puts them ahead of who, exactly? Depauw? Witt's rushing defense was sixth last year. Oberlin, Kenyon, and Denison were better.

Witt's Defense: Hello, question mark.

While I agree with you that being "top three" in a category is not indicative of an excellent defense given that the NCAC has been a two-team league for the last decade...I will say that I don't put a ton of stock in team defensive stats such as yards, because Wittenberg blew out some teams and garbage-time stats can really skew those numbers.

I put a lot more stock in how a particular side performed in big games, or in "competitive" games when things were still close before games turned into a rout.  Oberlin scored a touchdown with 35 seconds left in a 47-13 game; that doesn't mean much to evaluate Witt's defense.  What DOES mean a lot is the big rushing performance allowed to Denison's Fioroni, the 27 points allowed to Wabash, and the 38 allowed to Heidelberg.  Against their best competition, the Witt defense wasn't exactly a shutdown unit.

While we are admittedly picking some nits in a team that probably would be considered the league favorite, the fact that there are genuinely concerning nits to pick suggests to me that their favorite status is not a slam dunk; short, you're making it sound as though it will be a shock if anyone other than Witt wins the league, and I think that's why I'd quibble with your logic.  As BD said, Wabash beat Witt last year, why is it such a JOKE that they would be a possible favorite?

BashDad, I generally agree with you, just kinda tweaking the point you made re: rushing defense by using their total yardage allowed.

[BashDad]

Not sure if this is totally accurate (was anyone hurt in the respective last games of the regular season, which is the lineup I used?) but RETURNING STARTERS for Witt/Wabash looks like this:

Wabash: 9 on offense, 8 on defense

Wittenberg: 9 on offense, 6 on defense.

[smedindy]

I'm just glad there's a little back and forth fodder on this here board.

If someone had the time and inclination, they could probably do what Football Outsiders (and other stat analyzers) do and normalize the stats to count more when games are actually on the line and not in garbage time so we can see where Witt would land on the spectrum.

Nothing is a slam dunk though - well, except Hiram finishing 8th or under.

[wally_wabash]

I'm just glad there's a little back and forth fodder on this here board.

If someone had the time and inclination, they could probably do what Football Outsiders (and other stat analyzers) do and normalize the stats to count more when games are actually on the line and not in garbage time so we can see where Witt would land on the spectrum.

Nothing is a slam dunk though - well, except Hiram finishing 8th or under.

Not a statistical analysis per se, but I know that when the game was on the line and Wittenberg's defense had nine minutes and thirty seconds to get the ball back, they couldn't do it. 

[sigma one]

BashDad, those are the O and D numbers I see as well.  The big unknown for Wabash is at QB.  Walsh did fine last year; not great, but fine when he took over for an injured Belton. Others will compete for the job.  By the time Wabash and Witt meet we will know all we need to know about the Wabash QB except how he will do in a game that will likely decide the NCAC championship, or a share of it. 
     I hear that there may be (may be, I say) a transfer to Wabash who could make the defense even better.  Remember that the defense was young last year.  We spilled ink writing about how Allegheny and then Oberlin exploited it.  This year, that same defense, minus one important d lineman and one safety (who was injured for about half the year) returns with more to prove. 
    On the other side, Witt must replace several d linemen and d two defense backs, I think.   But the Tigers have never had much problem finding new talent. 
     There were a numbers of important moments (game changers?) in the Wabash/Witt game last year.  Two second-half ones come to mind.  First, Witt fumbled on the opening kickoff of the second half after going into their locker room with some momentum.  Second, the very impressive (if you are a Wabash fan) long drive that clinched the game and that took over half of the fourth quarter.  That was some test of wills that Wabash won by just crashing forward (something that I didn't think could happen, but that set up the Wabash ground game for the rest of the season).  Both those changers hurt Witt badly--the last one almost embarrassingly.  I'm sure Witt will remember that long, slow march forward. 
     My point about last year is that it is a solid example of how the two teams have played one another over most of the past half decade. 
     Based on what they did last year Wittenberg certainly has to be the pre-season NCAC favorite.  Wabash guys:  get over it.  I'm not saying that they will win the NCAC, but that they deserve to start on top.  I've mentioned before that I believe one of the big three will lose a game to someone other than themselves.  I go out on a limb by saying  further that I think one the two--Wabash and Witt--will lose a game before they meet in the next to last game of the regular season.
     I'm ready to eat crow if this doesn't happen. 

[wally_wabash]

Not sure if this is totally accurate (was anyone hurt in the respective last games of the regular season, which is the lineup I used?) but RETURNING STARTERS for Witt/Wabash looks like this:

Wabash: 9 on offense, 8 on defense

Wittenberg: 9 on offense, 6 on defense.

Looks about right to me.  I don't know the ins and outs about who is coming and going and staying at Wittenberg, but I would offer this on the Wabash side of the ledger:

We know Bost is not returning, so I think that makes 8 of the regular starters back on offense for Wabash.  On the other side, Koop was hurt a lot last year and DNP'd in four games (including OWU)...so there was somebody else playing that safety spot for a lot of the season (Woods or Bauer mostly).  I think you can give Wabash half a point on defense there. 

[wally_wabash]

     Based on what they did last year Wittenberg certainly has to be the pre-season NCAC favorite.  Wabash guys:  get over it.  I'm not saying that they will win the NCAC, but that they deserve to start on top.  I've mentioned before that I believe one of the big three will lose a game to someone other than themselves.  I go out on a limb by saying  further that I think one the two--Wabash and Witt--will lose a game before they meet in the next to last game of the regular season.
     I'm ready to eat crow if this doesn't happen.

Oh I agree.  It's going to be an anxious morning out there in the parking lot on November 9. 

[sigma one]

Wilkins was also injured last year, and he plays safety or that S/LB that Wabash employs.  Also, Stella played that hybrid at times last year as a freshman.  One key to the Wabash defense is all three linebackers returning:  Scola (1st team all-NCAC last year); Akinrabade (also 1st team), and Buresh (HM, I believe), who was injured early in the season and missed several games. 

[BashDad]

The big unknown for Wabash is at QB.  Walsh did fine last year; not great, but fine when he took over for an injured Belton. Others will compete for the job.  By the time Wabash and Witt meet we will know all we need to know about the Wabash QB except how he will do in a game that will likely decide the NCAC championship, or a share of it. 

I have very little anxiety about the transition to a new quarterback, primarily because this version of the team is not predicated on, nor requires outstanding QB play. You know who else played "fine, but not great?" Chase Belton. Last year was screwy and Belton wasn't/isn't exempt from the blame. We kept waiting--or I did--for a player that never really materialized. That may sound harsh, but I'm just not as worried as I expected to be, say, a year ago about this team post-CB. Maybe I'm being too cavalier, but my feeling is that the offense is going to be very similar--and produce similar frustrations--than the product from last year. I'll take that. The personality of the team sits squarely on Holmes and the defense and both are very, very good.

[sigma one]

BashDad:  Agree completely on CB.  We will talk some day.  Also agree on Homes and the D.  My concern there is that one injury could upset the apple cart, and Raeburn knows that.  Holmes is a straight up runner and takes hits.   A birdie says that the head coach has switched from coaching the offensive line to coaching the, wait for it, QBs.

[short]

When you look at Conference only stats (7 games) Wittenberg is better than Wabash in almost every stat.

Scoring Offense Witt 41.6 (1st) Wabash 25.1 (3rd)
Total Offense Witt 449.7 (1st) Wabash 383.6 (3rd)
Passing Offense Witt 286.7 (3rd) Wabash 191.6 (7th)
Rushing Offense Witt 213 (1st) Wabash 192 (2nd)
1st Downs Witt 21.3 (1st) Wabash 18.4 (T-5th)
3rd Offense Witt 48% (1st) Wabash 32% (6th)
FG % Witt 87.5 (2nd) Wabash 36.4 (9th)
Red Zone Offense Witt 79% (1st) Wabash 58% (4th)
Scoring Defense Wabash 11 Pts (1st) Witt 15.4 (2nd)
Total Defense Witt 284.9 (1st) Wabash 292.7 (2nd)

Please remind me what stat Wabash was better than Witt in when looking a Conference play.... I believe the Witt Offense is returning 10 Starts and the 11th played alot.

BTW Heidelberg scored over 30 pts in 8 games last season and over 42 in 5 games while normally play ahead. Heidelberg also came into the Witt game giving up only an average of 13.4 pts per game on Defense and Witt scored 52!

[short]

This is not the SEC. If Team X isn't #1 in the NCAC in whatever the category, it's worth little. Top three is not good. That puts them ahead of who, exactly? Depauw? Witt's rushing defense was sixth last year. Oberlin, Kenyon, and Denison were better.

Witt's Defense: Hello, question mark.

Oberlin might of had a better run D than Wittenberg but Witt had the better team.  That is more than Wabash can say about Oberlin.

[wally_wabash]

Why would I casually ignore 30 percent of a season's stats?

[BashDad]

What Wally said.

As for this...

Oberlin might of had a better run D than Wittenberg but Witt had the better team.  That is more than Wabash can say about Oberlin.

You win. You're a genius.

[short]

Why would I casually ignore 30 percent of a season's stats?

Because we are talking about winning the Conference not winning the National Championship.  We are talking about how Wabash/Wittenberg match up vs Conference teams in the Quest to win the NCAC!