FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[sigma one]

Hard to know when a roster is revised, but I found an early roster for Oberlin in 2012 that lists 46 players.  Of these, 16 were seniors and 15 freshmen.  Last Year.  Allegheny listed 39 frosh; Denison 24; DePauw 39; Hiram 46; Kenyon 14; Ohio Wesleyan 25; Wabash 45; Wittenberg 69; Wooster 42.  So, if those numbers are accurate, Oberlin lost more seniors than they are bringing in freshmen.  Not a healthy trend. 

[smedindy]

I think the two biggest factors are admissions (it's tough to get in and they aren't going to bend to get athletes in) and, as smedindy put it, academic programming.  It looks like 1/4 of the students are in the conservatory of music.  And that doesn't include the kids majoring in art, film, literature, etc.  Those aren't usually big football majors.  And the usual suspects like PE/Health, Sport Management, Exercise Science, etc. are all absent.

Wabash doesn't have those majors though, and they do quite well in attracting freshmen. They also don't have accounting or business majors, either. So there is a place for Liberal Arts majors and football. But Oberlin's overall programming is somewhat contra to the majority of what a 'typical' football player would major in, which is why I included it as a big factor.

(If there is such a thing as 'typical' in D-3. )

[sigma one]

Had a little time to look at the College of Wooster 2013 preview.  A name that grabbed is David Smith, a transfer from Stetson University.  Smith is a QB who play h.s. football at Upper Arlington.  He was a first team all-conference player.  His grandfather (football) and father (basketball) played for Wooster.  Stetson is reviving football after a long absence and will compete for the first time this year.  By the by, one of the cooler nicknames, I think:  the Stetson "Hatters."
     With a new coach, even with Barnes as a returning senior starter, could there be a change coming.  Hohl played well in his opportunity last year:  16 of 20 passing.  Now, Smith.  Someone said days ago that to him Barnes is the single most exciting player in the NCAC.  I've thought about that, and I can't think of anyone else to plug in there.  But Barnes has been inconsistent for all his talents.  I recall Wabash having trouble tackling him when he was a freshman.  The preview has Coloprete making many position changes.  Would he move Barnes if he thinks there is another QB?  And would Barnes move?  Still, Barnes has to be the front runner now that Frongillo is not returning to the team for health reasons.  Wooster is putting in a new offense, so there is no specific experience advantage for Barnes there. 
    I also noticed that the leading tackler from last year--LB Hood--is not mentioned.  Nor are Tozzi, who played a lot at DE, and Rivers, who started a DB as a freshman.  I know there are always personal player decisions and other changes, but those three appear to have been significant contributors. 
     Wooster opens with Washington and Jefferson; no time to ease into the season.  Still, that's a non-conference game.  You have to admire Coloprete for evaluating who returns and for shaking things up after last year's poor season.
     

[Bombers798891]

Hard to know when a roster is revised, but I found an early roster for Oberlin in 2012 that lists 46 players.  Of these, 16 were seniors and 15 freshmen.  So, if those numbers are accurate, Oberlin lost more seniors than they are bringing in freshmen.  Not a healthy trend.

Nor is the overall drop in numbers, from 46 to 39, and the drop in incoming freshman from 15 to 10.

Assuming this roster is mostly complete, at what point does it become a safety concern for them? Considering there are two kickers (who seem to be just kickers), you're really looking at a roster of 37—with only 16 defensive players listed. If you get a couple of injuries, you're either going to have guys playing out of position or both ways. The team seems to be decent—and considering their roster size, that's saying something—but there's got to be a point where it becomes about the ability to stay healthy for 10 games

[smedindy]

I think there are parallels to the Lewis & Clark situation a few years ago, and then Macalester had to drop women's basketball for a year because of low numbers.

I'd think you'd need at least 35 to limp through a year. I can't imagine going into a season with no less than 50 players, though.

[wally_wabash]

Happy days...we've got preseason polling.  Here is your 2013 NCAC preseason coaches poll:

1. Wittenberg (8) 97
2. Wabash (1) 88
3. Ohio Wesleyan (1) 84
4. Allegheny 58
5. DePauw 50
6. Kenyon 43
7. Denison 41
  Wooster 41
9. Oberlin 33
10. Hiram 15


Nothing too surprising there except maybe Wooster's placement, but as has been pointed out there are a lot of question marks around the Scots. 

Also released today is an all-decade team!  Hard to find much fault there (diffiuclt to be "wrong" with a decade's worth of players to choose from).  One name that did surprise me a little was AJ Akinribade...who is the only active player to make the list (and has only played two seasons!). 

[bashbrother]

Interesting list,  a bunch of great football players on that roster.   Nice to see Josh Foster on it... he was such a beast and stood for what D3Football was all about.   Congrats to all the fine players.

Moving on -  It was cool to see Alex Tanney play a large part of the 2nd half last night against the Dolphins.   On one of his first couple plays,  he was welcomed to the NFL while scrambling...had to hurt.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Hard to know when a roster is revised, but I found an early roster for Oberlin in 2012 that lists 46 players.  Of these, 16 were seniors and 15 freshmen.  So, if those numbers are accurate, Oberlin lost more seniors than they are bringing in freshmen.  Not a healthy trend.

Nor is the overall drop in numbers, from 46 to 39, and the drop in incoming freshman from 15 to 10.

Assuming this roster is mostly complete, at what point does it become a safety concern for them? Considering there are two kickers (who seem to be just kickers), you're really looking at a roster of 37—with only 16 defensive players listed. If you get a couple of injuries, you're either going to have guys playing out of position or both ways. The team seems to be decent—and considering their roster size, that's saying something—but there's got to be a point where it becomes about the ability to stay healthy for 10 games

I think it was already a safety concern...if I recall correctly, they agreed to finish one game with a running clock last year (Case Western, if memory serves me right) because an injury in the third quarter took them down to only five offensive linemen.

It's hard to say what the minimum to get through a season is.  There are very good small-high-school programs with 30 kids but those typically all have kids playing both ways and the game is much less physical, so injuries are somewhat less common, it's just not an apples-to-apples comparison.  I think L & C had 30-some the year they decided to forfeit their conference schedule.  Like smedindy said, 50 is about as low as I'd be comfortable with, at least then you have enough for a full two-deep plus a few specialists and (hopefully) a third QB.

This is why I laugh when we have conversations about Division III recruiting and folks act like coaches are targeting specific positions in a given year.  Maybe a little, but realistically, guys, everyone that plays high school ball on a decent level is a target.  You want to bring in as many of everything as you can, every year.

[wally_wabash]

We've been down this road with Oberlin and their roster size before...I've even previously been in the "I just don't know how they can get through a season with 40 players" camp.  I'm off of that train.  This is Oberlin's reality, it isn't new, and they absolutely don't embarrass themselves on Saturdays.  I think they'll be fine. 

[Bombers798891]

We've been down this road with Oberlin and their roster size before...I've even previously been in the "I just don't know how they can get through a season with 40 players" camp.  I'm off of that train.  This is Oberlin's reality, it isn't new, and they absolutely don't embarrass themselves on Saturdays.  I think they'll be fine.

I don't think that's the concern—at least, it wasn't mine when I posted my comment. It's not about being uncompetitive and "embarrassing" themselves. I was simply wondering if the players might be at an elevated risk of injury because of roster limitations, specifically on defense, this season.

[DagarmanSpartan]

We've been down this road with Oberlin and their roster size before...I've even previously been in the "I just don't know how they can get through a season with 40 players" camp.  I'm off of that train.  This is Oberlin's reality, it isn't new, and they absolutely don't embarrass themselves on Saturdays.  I think they'll be fine.

Well I dunno man!

As long as I've been following Division III football (since the early 90s), Oberlin has NOT been a historically "competitive" program.

In fact, they once had a 44 game losing streak during that period.  In 1994, they were outscored 358-10, and in 1995, 469-72.

Last year's team (sub-.500) may literally be the best team they have for some time!

It is possible that they are returning to the form from the 1990s that some of us remember.

[wally_wabash]

We've been down this road with Oberlin and their roster size before...I've even previously been in the "I just don't know how they can get through a season with 40 players" camp.  I'm off of that train.  This is Oberlin's reality, it isn't new, and they absolutely don't embarrass themselves on Saturdays.  I think they'll be fine.

Well I dunno man!

As long as I've been following Division III football (since the early 90s), Oberlin has NOT been a historically "competitive" program.

In fact, they once had a 44 game losing streak during that period.  In 1994, they were outscored 358-10, and in 1995, 469-72.

Last year's team (sub-.500) may literally be the best team they have for some time!

It is possible that they are returning to the form from the 1990s that some of us remember.

I watch Oberlin play at least a couple of times every year.  If you want to think that they are still the punchline that they were in the 90s, you go on ahead.  You're also wrong. 

[Li'l Giant]

I think the possibility is that you're both right. Oberlin may have been competitive last couple of years but they may also be cycling down. If this year's class is an aberration, then maybe no big deal, if they have strong numbers next fall.

But they get another small class next year and in a few years they're going to stink like last weekend's barbacoa.

[sigma one]

Here's what the big(gest) problem is--or so it seems.  Some years ago Kenyon feared for the safety of its players due to squad size and the quality of the players they were putting on the field.  Now we are talking about Oberlin.  While the two situations are not exactly the same, there are some commonalties--at least we have not yet heard from Oberlin about their concern for safety.  But teams are not even in camp yet.  Kenyon has bounced back because they looked at their program and decided to put in some support.   Even so, until last year they had gone more than two years without a win.  It took time. (At least they were not back to saying that they had safety concerns.)
     From time to time we have discussed commitment to athletics, and specifically to football.  Words like "tolerate" have been tossed around.  An athletic program, and specifically a football program, cannot be competitive--or safe, if you don't really care how often you win or stay close--without some conscious level of institutional support.  Neither Kenyon nor Oberlin it seems is to go to a system like the one used in NESCAC.  That's an OK decision, but Oberlin has to realize that football is not the same as other sports--in which Oberlin has had some success.  Football:  players run into one another, violently.  Even subtracting students in the music conservatory, Oberlin probably enrolls 2000+ students.  Sixty on a football team would not seem too much to ask. (Even though they probably have trouble recruiting into their environment.  Not a criticism, just a statement of reality.)   
     This year, Oberlin is particularly depleted.  That small squad size last year (but larger than this year's squad) included enough senior talent  to have them end up with 4 wins.  Not even .500, but a good year nonetheless--beating Wabash makes those four wins seem like more for their coaches and players, I'll  bet. A better year than, for example, at DePauw and Wooster.   That's just the kind of result that leads some people (administrators?) to say, "Well, we are doing just fine."  I'm on the side of believing/hoping Oberlin will survive this year, but I do share the injury concern because so many (quality) players graduated.  Remember that a about 25% of the team will be freshmen; are they yet ready to be on the field v. other teams?  The answer should be obvious.  I hope someone in the Oberlin administration is reading this discussion, or someone who talks to them tells them to pay attention (maybe they already are, at least I hope so).  Oberlin:  you are potentially placing your athletes at risk.  You are also perhaps damaging the prospects of other schools in the conference if you have to forfeit games.  But your chief concern should be the welfare of YOUR athletes.  You have a terrific head coach.  It seems that Jeff accepts his circumstances; he has been there for some years. And good for him--and you.  You are smart people,  so you can surely find a way to give your football student-athletes and your coaches the support they deserve.   Please.

[ExTartanPlayer]

We've been down this road with Oberlin and their roster size before...I've even previously been in the "I just don't know how they can get through a season with 40 players" camp.  I'm off of that train.  This is Oberlin's reality, it isn't new, and they absolutely don't embarrass themselves on Saturdays.  I think they'll be fine.

Well I dunno man!

As long as I've been following Division III football (since the early 90s), Oberlin has NOT been a historically "competitive" program.

In fact, they once had a 44 game losing streak during that period.  In 1994, they were outscored 358-10, and in 1995, 469-72.

Last year's team (sub-.500) may literally be the best team they have for some time!

It is possible that they are returning to the form from the 1990s that some of us remember.

Dagarman, sorry, that's a pretty asinine comment.  What relevance does 1994-1995 have to Oberlin's present?  Look, I know you're all on your high horse because you jumped on the Case bandwagon right as Debeljak brought that program up a level and they've had fun beating up on the Oberlins, Kenyons, and Denisons of the world for the last decade or so (listening to you brag about the Case winning streaks against them is kinda like listening to the playground bully brag about his record in fights against younger kids, by the way), but it wasn't so long ago that Case was about at the level Oberlin's been at for the last five-six-seven years.  Look at Oberlin's records from 2006-2012 and compare them to Case's from 1999-2005.  Not all that different.

Wally didn't say they were winning conference titles.  He said they "don't embarrass themselves on Saturdays."  Four wins, one of them over Wabash, certainly qualifies as "competitive" in my book, and was about the same as a typical Case season from 1999-2005.  We're not using "competitive" on the national scope here, but more like "capable of competing with their peers" which Oberlin certainly was last year, especially with a healthy Mandel.

Has Oberlin been truly "good" for the last decade?  Of course not.  Have they been "respectable" given the circumstances?  Absolutely!

wally, I know that we've been down this road before, but it still bears watching.  Not just that they have a small roster but that it seems to be trending downwards and they're perilously close to the bare minimum (needing to finish one game with a running clock last year because they were out of backup OL's is the troubling sign, that's hard evidence rather than just speculation).  It's tough to see them on the fringes like this because they HAVE battled so hard the last few seasons, and I had hope that this past season would inspire a somewhat bigger incoming class.  Even 25 guys coming in would be a huge boon to them, and that would be a disastrously SMALL incoming class for many programs, my alma mater included.