FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[bashbrother]

Breaking down the schedules of the Pre-season Top "3" NCAC Squads -

Witt -   The Tigers will most likely enter their 11/02 match up at home with OWU at 6-0 in the conference (overall record will be 6-1).
I believe the Bishops will either enter this game at 5-1 or 6-0  (Wabash 10/12)   This significance is that Witt cannot afford to look past this game to a road trip to Wabash the following week.   OWU will field probably their best team in a long time and will beat anyone that is not ready to play.   Tough two week stretch for the Tigers..... if they win both,  the conference and the AQ is probably theirs.

OWU -   The Bishops with all of their offense, need to learn how to score touchdowns in the red-zone to unseat Witt or Wabash.    Last year,  they only scored 19 TD's in 46 visits to the red-zone.    They also only converted 18-29 field goal attempts as well  (62%).   The Bishops should make their trip to Wabash with a record of 4-0 (3-0 conference).  Their 28-0 loss from last year is still fresh in the minds of the players and coaching staff.   Finding a way to score, I am sure,  is their #1 priority.   406 total yards without a score is problematic.  78 passing attempts and -22 yards rushing will need to change for them to have a shot. 

Wabash -  It is all about regaining the "Home Field"...and defeating those teams (home & away) that they should.  On paper, the schedule lines up perfectly for them.   With both OWU and Witt at home (with Kenyon, Oberlin and Hiram in-between) is not a bad draw.  IF Wabash finds an offense early and can actually rely on the passing game,  they will be hard to beat, especially at Hollett.   In big games,  OWU & Witt,  if they have to lean too heavily on Holmes & the running game to move the ball,  they are possibly in for a long day.   

There are my thoughts, for what they are worth.. ready for the season.

[ADL70]

bb

As far as OWU FG go, they were 15-21 inside 40 (1 blocked) and their kicker is on an award watch list.

Are you giving too much credit for home field advantage?  Both losses last year were at home (but maybe "trap" games).

[bashbrother]

bb
As far as OWU FG go, they were 15-21 inside 40 (1 blocked) and their kicker is on an award watch list.

Sure those are great numbers within the 40,  I guess my point is then that the 2012 Bishops offense moved it well between the 30's but when they got to or close to the red-zone they ran out of answers.

My home field advantage angle comes from the fact that Wabash, before the start of last season, was 33-2 (reg. season) at home going back to the 2005 season.    Only losses coming to Witt (2009) and Depauw (2008).  In 2012 they were 3-2 at home.

Disclaimer:  I believe these statistics are accurate,  my staff fact checker was a casualty of the sequester. 

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Thanks bash, you are right about OWU they need to find a running game. That will help nearer the goal line. I am interested to see Watts recruiting class. Hopefully the running game will be better this year.

[bashbrother]

As a follow-up to my last post,  here are the Red Zone Efficiency for all (3) teams in 2012.

Witt -    39 TD's in 64 Red Zone visits  (64% is pretty darn good.) Overall Red Zone scores - 50-61 - (81% - Excellent)

Wabash -  25 TD's in 48 Red Zone visits (52%)  Overall Red Zone scores - 33 - 48 - (68%)

OWU -   19 TD's in 46 Red Zone visits (41%)  Overall Red Zone scores - 34 - 46 - (73% - Not that bad.)

For Reference of Championship Teams -   

Mount Union - 64 TD's in 87 Red Zone visits (74%) - Overall Red Zone scores - 76- 87 - (87%)
Alabama Crimson Tide -  46 TD's in 62 Red Zone Visits (74%)  Overall Red Zone scores - 56 - 62 - (90%)

[smedindy]

It's also how many times you're in the Red Zone.

Hiram was in the red zone 10 times last year. And three of those were in the OWU game.

[BashDad]

As a follow-up to my last post,  here are the Red Zone Efficiency for all (3) teams in 2012.

Witt -    39 TD's in 64 Red Zone visits  (64% is pretty darn good.) Overall Red Zone scores - 50-61 - (81% - Excellent)

Wabash -  25 TD's in 48 Red Zone visits (52%)  Overall Red Zone scores - 33 - 48 - (68%)

OWU -   19 TD's in 46 Red Zone visits (41%)  Overall Red Zone scores - 34 - 46 - (73% - Not that bad.)

For Reference of Championship Teams -   

Mount Union - 64 TD's in 87 Red Zone visits (74%) - Overall Red Zone scores - 76- 87 - (87%)
Alabama Crimson Tide -  46 TD's in 62 Red Zone Visits (74%)  Overall Red Zone scores - 56 - 62 - (90%)

These are interesting. Those Bash numbers are ew.

[wally_wabash]

If Miles McKenzie kicks enough field goals to win national awards, OWU will have lost at least twice this year. Take that to the bank. The money bank. 

Touchdowns win championships.

[sigma one]

Of course, success in the Red Zone in many ways defines a team's offensive proficiency.  I did some digging to discover how OWU, Wab, and Wit did outside the Zone last year.  Interesting results.  The Wit numbers are for the regular season only. 
     OWU scored 13 offensive TDs of 21 or more yards.  (Four of these v. Allegheny.)  Of these, 13, 12 were via the pass.  The other was a 64 yd. run (Allegheny).   They threw a 19-yd. TD pass. They also scored two defensive TDs on interception returns--67, 47, yds (both v. Kenyon).  The passes were 66, 56, 56, 54, 47, 46, 44, 43, 40, 35, 32, 24 yards.
     Wabash scored 13 offensive TDs of 21 or more yards.  Of these, 8 were passes and five were runs.  The passes were 82, 70, 49, 47, 39, 30, 27, 26, yards.  The runs:  69, 67, 56, 26, 21 yds. (The 69 and 56 were v. Washington U.)  (The 82, 67, 47, 26 yd. scores were v. OWU; the 69 and 56-yd. runs were v. Washington U.)  They also scored two TDs on interception returns--39 and 26 yds. 
     Wittenberg scored 15 offensive TDs of 21 or more yards.  (Three of these were v. Denison, three v. DePauw, three v. Kenyon, and three v. Hiram.)  Eleven of these were passes, and four were runs.  The passes:  76, 50, 47, 45, 43, 42, 41, 36, 32, 31, 30 yds.  The runs:  52, 47, 28, 23 yds.  They scored on 2 interception returns--54 and 40 yds, both v. Hiram, and a fumble return v. Oberlin.  They also threw 4 TDs of exactly 20 yards, and one of 19 yds.   
   That's a lot of numbers, but one point to be made is that they all were together in TDs beyond 20 yds.  And then that OWU was a passing team; Wabash and Wittenberg showed some balance. 
     Oh, well, for the stats minded.
     

[D3MAFAN]

Of course, success in the Red Zone in many ways defines a team's offensive proficiency.  I did some digging to discover how OWU, Wab, and Wit did outside the Zone last year.  Interesting results.  The Wit numbers are for the regular season only. 
     OWU scored 13 offensive TDs of 21 or more yards.  (Four of these v. Allegheny.)  Of these, 13, 12 were via the pass.  The other was a 64 yd. run (Allegheny).   They threw a 19-yd. TD pass. They also scored two defensive TDs on interception returns--67, 47, yds (both v. Kenyon).  The passes were 66, 56, 56, 54, 47, 46, 44, 43, 40, 35, 32, 24 yards.
     Wabash scored 13 offensive TDs of 21 or more yards.  Of these, 8 were passes and five were runs.  The passes were 82, 70, 49, 47, 39, 30, 27, 26, yards.  The runs:  69, 67, 56, 26, 21 yds. (The 69 and 56 were v. Washington U.)  (The 82, 67, 47, 26 yd. scores were v. OWU; the 69 and 56-yd. runs were v. Washington U.)  They also scored two TDs on interception returns--39 and 26 yds. 
     Wittenberg scored 15 offensive TDs of 21 or more yards.  (Three of these were v. Denison, three v. DePauw, three v. Kenyon, and three v. Hiram.)  Eleven of these were passes, and four were runs.  The passes:  76, 50, 47, 45, 43, 42, 41, 36, 32, 31, 30 yds.  The runs:  52, 47, 28, 23 yds.  They scored on 2 interception returns--54 and 40 yds, both v. Hiram, and a fumble return v. Oberlin.  They also threw 4 TDs of exactly 20 yards, and one of 19 yds.   
   That's a lot of numbers, but one point to be made is that they all were together in TDs beyond 20 yds.  And then that OWU was a passing team; Wabash and Wittenberg showed some balance. 
     Oh, well, for the stats minded.
   

I think you can go a little bit further and add another variable based on the opponent overall record. It appears that Wabash had more success against quality teams than OWU and Wittenberg.

[bashbrother]

Week 1 - Initial Look

9/07 -  Witt at Butler -  Butler's program is on the rise....  Does Witt have a chance in this one?  How does this game benefit Witt?
9/07 - Depauw at Sewanee -   How far has Depauw come?  New proven coach,  new attitude for winning?  Worked for OWU in '12.
9/07 - Kenyon at Allegheny - Will the Gators have any bite this year?  How does round robin affect Kenyon's program?
9/07 - Bluffton at OWU -   Bishops enter the 2013 campaign with tremendous confidence.  Bluffton coming off there best season in 11 years.... (6-4)
9/07 -  Westminster (PA) at Hiram -  Terriers dropped last year's meeting 17-7.   Is this the best chance for them to earn a "W" this season?
9/07 - Wash & Jeff at Wooster -   2-8 result from last year.  Do they improve upon that?  Tough opponent to start with.
9/07 -  Earlham at Denison -  Last time they met, Denison drilled the Quakers 44-7.  Any different this time?
9/07 - Case Western at Oberlin -  Last year Oberlin played Case close in a loss....   does Oberlin have anything left in the tank?

With the round robin scheduling,  each NCAC team only has one non-conf. game each.   How will this impact SOS numbers and the possibility of two NCAC teams making the playoffs in the future.

Unfortunately,  I see a non-conf. record of 2-5 out of week 1.   (Kenyon/Gheny is a conference game)

Thoughts?   

[smedindy]

It means our overall SOS numbers will be closer to the mid-point than in the past since there's only nine data points to consider outside of the NCAC (thanks to Witt).

The league has to hope, nay, pray that the teams they play in the non-conference finish .500 or better. And maybe they should stop scheduling Earlham (except Hiram, perhaps, just to get a W).

[ADL70]

bb  CWRU @ Oberlin is 9/15 not 9/7

[sigma one]

To follow up on smedindy about the non-conference teams and the hope (prayer) that they finish with good records this year.  Bluffton was 6-4 last year.  They open with OWU and Baldwin-Wallace--tough beginning.  Then, in the HCAC, they have Franklin.  Those are probably three losses.  They will have to play well to get Mt. St. Joseph.  They beat Rose-Hulman 37-34 last year, and Definace 27-24 in 2 OTs.  Can they be 5-5 or 6-4 this year?
     Case Western is good to very good.  They have scheduled Linfield and Trinity (TX).  The Trinity game might be interesting.  Then they have the UAA opponents to finish the season.  Otherwise, their schedule is favorable. 
     Sewanee has Willamette, Washington & Lee, Birmingham So., and Centre.  Improving on last year will be difficult.  They do finish with Hendrix and Berry.
     Westminster was 3-6 a year ago.  Improvement?
     Washington & Jefferson will be their usual big winner.
     Carnegie-Mellon:  probably will win more than half its games. Can they win 7 or more?
     Then: throw away Butler.
     Leaving, Earlham (gulp).  And Hanover; picked 2nd in the pre-season NCAC poll.  (And as the Board's half-empty guy I do not think a loss to Wabash is certain given the LGs new QB--although I do think the defense will be enough.)
     C-M, CWR, W&J will are probably the best of the group.  Hanover, Sewanee, Westminster:  can they all be at or over .500?  Bluffton:   Earlham:  we all hope they improve, but hope is cheap.                      (Butler)
     The NCAC champion will go, of course.  It matters if that team is unbeaten and the runner up is 9-1.  If the three W's all lose at least one game or there is a strange combo of Ws/Ls or another team rises, can there possibly be another team in the playoffs?  Not very promising.

[bashbrother]

Insomnia is great.... you run across stuff like this....

OWU & Wabash made the cut for "Odd Mascots" ... pretty funny.

http://youtu.be/OBAmQcj667M

There are some weird ones...