FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[ADL70]

Maybe Vince Kehres is every bit the master that Larry Kehres is.  But I doubt it.  I think that totally changes the game.  Mount Union is still going to have the players.  They can replace the players.  But you can't replace 332-24-3.  That part of the equation doesn't get reloaded.

A couple of thoughts on this. First, you can't say "Larry Kehres is the greatest" and then say you're going to just replace him. Those two thoughts don't compute for me. No shade intended for Vince Kehres but like Wally said you can't replace 332-24-3.

Second thought, Larry Kehres-coached UMU teams only missed the playoffs 4 times in his career. And those 4 times came in his first 6 seasons as head coach. I'm certainly not predicting they'll be missing the playoffs or anything, but, this is a program that has at least made the semifinals for 18 (!!) straight seasons. A first time head coach has the expectation of keeping that going. If that doesn't happen, and a quarterfinal loss happens, will that be acceptable? Lots of teams consider a trip to the quarterfinals a damn fine season. UMU has done better than that for almost 2 decades straight.

Not sure how this plays out, but it's not necessarily something that plays out this season either. We will probably be watching this play out over several seasons.

Of course VK has talent and tradition that LK didn't have in the early years.

[ExTartanPlayer]

QB situation around the NCAC will be one to pay attention to as the season starts.  Allegheny (Dawida was 44/73 last year in limited time), Denison (no one on the roster with any experience and a talented freshman who starred in high school , but is he the one)), DePauw (appears to be a decision between Seaman and Murray; both threw over 200x last year), Hiram (bacause of Blake being injured last year, and the transfer), Kenyon (no one with any experience at all), Oberlin (Poggiali filled in semi-ably last year for a couple of games), OWU (!), Wabash (?), Wittenberg (!), and Wooster (Barnes is back for his senior year after three years of play, but I don't see him as a lock; Hohl played a game last year and was pretty good, and there is a transfer--Smith).

Compare that to last year when the league was returning-QB heavy, and with good players.     

Good points.  An experienced QB is not a guarantee of success, nor is the absence of one a guarantee of failure, but I'm a firm believer that a) on the league-wide level, a handful of experienced QB's results in better quality play and b) on the team level, a steady hand at QB can be worth a few wins (i.e. it can push a "bad" program up to "okay" for a couple years, or an "okay" program up to "good").  A thin team with a really good QB might steal a few games that they wouldn't otherwise win.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

One significant component to the change from LK to VK is the loss of offensive game planning and adjustments.   It would take all day to list the times that Mount offensively exploded with a minor adjustment to formations or play calls.   The 1st Stagg against Whitewater was an example where the offense completely changed for that game.   They hadn't run split backs all year and the TE was nothing until the Stagg.   But he uses split backs to slow down the UWW rush and the seldom used TE has a huge game.   2nd Stagg against Whitewater was the "Greg Micheli is only a running QB" game but then has the best passing efficiency game in Stagg history.   And most of the Rowan games were won with halftime adjustments, both good ones by LK coupled with zero adjustments by KC Keeler.

LK was the QB coach and O-coordinator for most of the last 20 year run.   There were a couple years where he turned the play calling over to Matt Campbell (now HC at Toledo), but even during a couple years that Zac Bruney was officially the OC, he'd step in and over the play calling whenever a game got close or they really needed a drive.   That is now gone.

I have no doubts in VK's ability to keep the defense together, but there are HUGE question marks regarding the offense and that's without factoring in that only QB Kevin Burke returns from 2012.   

I also completely agree with the mental aspect of LK retiring in regards to both Mount and their opponents.   For Mount, there is now doubt whether the decisions are the right ones whereas the opponent has a boost in confidence associated with The Master no longer walking the sidelines.   There is no getting around that fact.   And it's going to be interesting in seeing how Mount handles that this season.    Without that unwavering belief in LK, does Mount score 34 points in the 4th quarter last year to beat MHB?   

I think VK will be a very good coach, but anyone that expects him to replicate what his Dad did is crazy.  Best that I can honestly expect is for Mount to remain a Top 5 team with a reasonable chance of winning the championship.  Not the odds on favorite every year.   This season is critical for VK.   In my mind to keep the recruiting train rolling along he needs to win the OAC outright and at least make the Semi-Finals.   No pressure!

Another angle to consider that while LK has left the day to day to VK, almost all the assistants remain and almost all were former players etc (at least how I read the media guide).  That being said, I dont think the drop-off will be that measurable if at all.  Just my two cents.  Rock solid talent, depth, and consistency should rule in Alliance.

[wally_wabash]

     QB situation around the NCAC will be one to pay attention to as the season starts.  Allegheny (Dawida was 44/73 last year in limited time), Denison (no one on the roster with any experience and a talented freshman who starred in high school , but is he the one)), DePauw (appears to be a decision between Seaman and Murray; both threw over 200x last year), Hiram (bacause of Blake being injured last year, and the transfer), Kenyon (no one with any experience at all), Oberlin (Poggiali filled in semi-ably last year for a couple of games), OWU (!), Wabash (?), Wittenberg (!), and Wooster (Barnes is back for his senior year after three years of play, but I don't see him as a lock; Hohl played a game last year and was pretty good, and there is a transfer--Smith).
     Compare that to last year when the league was returning-QB heavy, and with good players.     

Some follow up here...Allegheny's game notes for this week list freshman Jon Nigro (5-9, 175) as the starter...because when your offense ranks 223rd in Division III in 2012, it quite literally can't hurt to give the thing over to a freshman.  Sophomore Kyle Smith is listed as the backup.  Joe Dawida doesn't appear to be on the roster. 

And that was your Gator Minute. 

[wally_wabash]

A couple of other notes around the league....

- Denison is going HD for their video broadcasts this year.  Huzzah.  Side note...except for Hiram, are we all broadcasting the moving pictures of home games now?  I think we are, which is very cool. 

- NCAC Pick 'Em is active.  I don't have any Thursday or Friday games on the week 1 slate, so there is still plenty of time to get picks posted before we kick off on Saturday if you are interested in playing. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

     QB situation around the NCAC will be one to pay attention to as the season starts.  Allegheny (Dawida was 44/73 last year in limited time), Denison (no one on the roster with any experience and a talented freshman who starred in high school , but is he the one)), DePauw (appears to be a decision between Seaman and Murray; both threw over 200x last year), Hiram (bacause of Blake being injured last year, and the transfer), Kenyon (no one with any experience at all), Oberlin (Poggiali filled in semi-ably last year for a couple of games), OWU (!), Wabash (?), Wittenberg (!), and Wooster (Barnes is back for his senior year after three years of play, but I don't see him as a lock; Hohl played a game last year and was pretty good, and there is a transfer--Smith).
     Compare that to last year when the league was returning-QB heavy, and with good players.     

Some follow up here...Allegheny's game notes for this week list freshman Jon Nigro (5-9, 175) as the starter...because when your offense ranks 223rd in Division III in 2012, it quite literally can't hurt to give the thing over to a freshman.  Sophomore Kyle Smith is listed as the backup.  Joe Dawida doesn't appear to be on the roster. 

And that was your Gator Minute.

Interesting.  I do think, when the returning options at QB are somewhat uninspiring, that turning it over to a freshman - if it's the right freshman - can pay dividends down the line.  CMU may reap the benefits of that approach with Kalkstein this year.  Undersized, but it's hard to imagine many D3 quarterbacks are more poised than a kid entering his fourth year as a college starter after four years as a high school starter, and he really took a major step forward last year.

[DPU3619]

DePauw (appears to be a decision between Seaman and Murray; both threw over 200x last year)

There are good QBs in this freshman class. I know there were several QBs expected. I see only 3 on the roster, so I almost wonder if some haven't already had a position change.  I think it's a pretty good class when you get the starters from Heritage Christian, Brownsburg, and New Trier to come to your school. 

It would not surprise me to see a total shift in direction of the offense, as we've previously discussed.  If that's true, then I also wouldn't be surprised to see one of those youngsters take it over right out of the gate.  I haven't heard anything from anybody on the subject.  That's just me talking out loud.

[sigma one]

I thought Murry showed promise for DePauw last year.  Nice size.  Athletic. Now he has a year of some experience.  Seaman looked average the couple of times I saw him. 
     Interesting to see who trots out there for the Tigers with those freshmen from good high school programs.  After all, those two QBs played on a 2-8 team in 2012, and new head coaches sometimes want to put their early stamp of things.
    The listed Allegheny starter v. Kenyon this week played high school football at Hampton Twp, a northern suburb of Pittsburgh.n  He was a two-year starter, first-steam all Greater Allegheny Confence on a 7-3 team in Class AAA. (PA has four classes.)  Passed for a total of just under 2,000 yards total in those two seasons.  He also kicked. Ya gotta love the internet. 
     With the Gators at home v. Kenyon, this would be a good place to break in a freshman.  This game may also tell us something about the relative strength of those two teams this year. 

[BashBacker#16]

Good read on Mount - http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2013/09/mount_union_football_begins_a.html

SigmaOne - Murray??  He's Lynch's guy - http://www.bannergraphic.com/story/2000489.html

[sigma one]

I think Murray has great promise.  Reminds me in some ways of Dustin Huff.

[Li'l Giant]

Good read on Mount - http://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2013/09/mount_union_football_begins_a.html

Miller High Life! Reminds me of some daytime trips to the Green Street Tavern in Crawfordsville.

[wally_wabash]

On the eve of our NCAC season, I'll offer up some statements. 

- A little reversal from my preseason prediction, but I think Hiram is going to win at least one game this year.  At least one. 

- Ohio Wesleyan is going to be better in the red zone this year, but mostly because they'll be better at what it is that they do and not because they installed some kind of power jumbo package for the short field.  That just isn't who they are. 

- DePauw is going to establish themselves as the clear cut #4 in the league...and advancing fast. 

- While we have three teams of playoff caliber in the league, only the champion will participate in the postseason.  The winner of Wabash/Witt will win the league, the loser of that game in week 10 will take too large a hit in the regional rankings too late in the game to get one of the five Pool C bids. 

- Wabash will lead the league in rushing.  And pass efficiency. 

- Wittenberg will lead the league in scoring.  Somebody is catching a 70-burger from the Tigers this year. 

- The NCAC playoff representative will reach the quarterfinal round.  At least. 

- Espinosa is going to throw over 500 passes whether he needs to or not. 

- The forum will welcome back photos of Ye Olde Skull with thunderous applause. 

- Wooster will get their lantern back. 

- DePauw isn't getting their dirty paws on the Monon Bell this year...although I will admit that 5 seems to be about critical mass for a Bell streak.  So I might get nervous in 2014. 

That's all I've got for now.  Can't wait to get this all started tomorrow. 

[firstdown]

Wally

I agree that Coach Lynch will bring a great improvement to the football program at DePauw over their recent doldrums.  While you can throw the records away for the Monon Bell game, it is going to take a couple of seasons for Lynch to rebuild the program.   I certainly see them climbing near the top of the conference sooner rather than later.  It will take a some work to get to the level to compete regularly with Witt, Wabash, and OWU.   Wabash has a great group of young quarterbacks on campus and, when one of them breaks away from the pack this season, the Little Giants will a key ingredient in place for the next couple of years along with some strong back ups. 

[sigma one]

I'm going to turn Wallly's statements around.  Ten Questions about the NCAC this year.

     *Can Wabash find a QB?

     *Will Hiram win a conference game?

     *Will Wittenberg finish unbeaten, after Butler (or even with Butler)?

     *How close will Kenyon come to matching 6-4?

     *Will Oberlin survive the season without having to make a decision?

     *How much will DePauw and Wooster improve with new head coaches?

     *Can Denison find adequate replacements for Fioroni and Paulus  (oh, and their wide receivers)?

      *Which of the three Ws is most likely to lose a conference game to a team other than themselves?

     *Can OWU keep it going when they play both Wabash and Wittenberg--and will they finish with two losses or fewer?

     *Will more than one NCAC team make the playoffs?

      And a bonus:  Which team will suffer most from injuries to key players?  (none, we all hope.)

     Good luck to all the teams this weekend, and particularly to those playing out of conference.
     

[firstdown]

Sigma One

I will answer question number 1 - yes, Wabash will find a quarterback.  They have a senior who played when Belton was injured last year, a talented sophomore, and a stable full of talented freshmen quarterbacks - several of whom won state championships in high school.   The LG's have a big and experienced OL, talented running backs, and some good receivers to surround the QB.  Coach Raeburn and Coach Morrell have have had great success in the past in developing quarterbacks.  Who will emerge from the group as the guy is anybody's guess at this point.  However, with the available talent pool, the strength of the rest of the offense, and the good coaching, the ingredients are all in place.  It also doesn't hurt having a strong defense as well that gives the offense the ball in short field situations.