FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[Bishopleftiesdad]

Can anybody fill me in on what happened to OWU this weekend. Were they outplayed or just mentally not there?

I think this loss gives Hiram a real opportunity to have an upper-hand mentally going into this game. OWU came into this season with lofty aspirations; as they very well should have, with a QB at the helm with Espinonsa's prowess and proven skill players. Any deflated confidence will be needed for the Terriers to get this victory, as they will come into this game with a sense of confidence that they had not held previously, especially coming off a bye. No disrespect to OWU, as I have nothing but respect for the Bishops as they are normally a very entertaining team to watch, and an equally as hard to beat as they are fun to watch.

So, long story short, my question made brief: What was the cause of OWU's defeat and what tangible impact (if any) does everyone think it will have going into this week??

The point that I've made before: OWU's 9-1 record last year tricked y'all into giving them some inflate expectations. Let's look at their three losses on the season this far:

1) Denison in overtime. They only beat Denison by 3 points last year. If we remove the teams' final records and just consider the result of last year's H2H matchup, it's not that shocking that they lost to Denison.

2) Wabash by a score of 38-13. Last year they lost to Wabash 28-0, and prevailing opinion is that this year's Wabash team is superior to last year's. Not totally shocking here, either.

3) DePauw by a score of 23-21, the loss that on the surface seems the most shocking...but even against last year's 2-8 DePauw team, they won 26-22.

Point being, with each OWU loss we have wondered whether they had some sort of breakdown or loss of focus...but I'll put forth another theory: they just aren't an elite team. They're a slightly-above-average NCAC team that put together a magical run last year and pulled out every close game they were in. This year some of those close games are going the other way.

HCAlum, I do think the Terriers have a puncher's chance against OWU, and you may well be correct that OWU's "mounting" losses in a season that they probably expected to go somewhat differently may start to affect the team mentally.  I wish I could remember where I read this, but I recall an interesting account of an underdog that pushed a heavily favored team to the very limit but came up just short. The coach of the favorite, addressing his team in the locker room after the game, told his players that the game ended up close because their opponent was more excited to play THEM than they were to play this "lesser" opponent. If Hiram comes to the game truly excited at the prospect of beating OWU while the Bishops bring a lackluster attitude because they've already got three losses and it's "just Hiram" a similar scenario could unfold.

Nothing against the Bishops here - just calling it as I see it!

I have to agree with ETP here. Look at the kicking game in each of the losses. Each loss had at least one miss or block that would have could have made the difference. I don't know if it is the line or the holder or any number of things, but last year the kicking game was money. This year it is not. I know that Watts players really like him. I think he can recruit. Things should improve in Delaware, we may see a step back before they get better.

[The_Bishop]

The kicking game was money last year, BLD.  I don't get it?

HCAlum86,

Hiram has generally been able to put up points against OWU so we could easily see a game that looks like 49-35.  At this point I'm not entirely sure which team will be the 49.

[sigma one]

Yes, Mackenzie had a very nice year in 2012.  He kicked 18 FGs and led the nation with that number.  But he was 18 for 29 (62%).  And he had 4 blocked.  That's one in every 8 he attempted.  Bad blocking, poor snaps, messed up holds--all could have been factors in misses and blocks.  It's probably most accurate to say that he kicked a lot of FGs.  Early on this year, we talked about how OWU had difficulties in the Red Zone last year, which led to so many attempts.  That he was "money" last year is overstating it somewhat. 
     At 4 for 12 this year, he's been off so far.  He missed a 33-yarder v. DePauw.  DPU won by two with a late kick of its own.   Kickers are creatures of confidence as much as of ability.   Some Wabash fans have been grouchy about MacDougall from time to time as he missed some PATs and FGs.  At the beginning of the year, he missed two points after; look up his numbers now. 
     I'm not trying to rag on the kid.  Those are the numbers.
     

[wally_wabash]

A few of my own thoughts on OWU and why they are 3-3 and not the 5-1 they should be. 

- Offense.  The offense hasn't evolved in year two like I had expected it to.  It's the same thing that we saw last year with very little new stuff.  Espinosa with all of those receivers coming back, plus a healthy Wall (who I think is grossly underused) ought to have been doing more and doing it faster than they did last year.  That hasn't happened. 

- Defense.  It's no secret that OWU lost some really good players on this side of the ball.  Huddleston and Sheetz immediately come to mind.  Those are hard guys to replace and, as we've seen in OWU's three losses, the impact on the run defense has been dramatic. 

- Special teams.  Trying not to pile on here, but against Denison 3 FGs were missed in a game that ultimately went to overtime.  Any one of those kicks wins.  And on Saturday a 33-yard attempt was missed in a game that they lost by 2 points.  It's a hard place to be when your offense bogs down in the red zone and you can't salvage the three points.  Too many empty drives in those two games that otherwise would have been won by the Bishops. 

To HCAlum's question about Saturday and what happened there...Nikko Sansone ran for 200 yards and OWU's second half possessions went as follows:
3 plays, 3 yards, punt
8 plays, 65 yards, missed FG
3 plays, 9 yards, punt
3 plays, -6 yards, punt
6 plays, 14 yards, punt
1 play, 0 yards, end of game

Four first downs and four punts in the money half of a football game won't win games. 

[BashBacker#16]

One of the things about this Wabash team that impresses, is how well rounded they are - in all phases.  Special teams have definitely stood out!  It starts with our kicker and punter.  Check out these numbers:

Ian MacDougall, K.
38 for 40 Xtra points.  10 for 10 on field goals (long of 45)
55 kick offs, 23 touch backs, 3 OB, and averages 60.6 yards/per

Cameron Sobleski, P.
24 punts.  43.3 yard ave, 8 over 50 yards, and 12 inside the 20.

...those are sick.  WAF

[Bishopleftiesdad]

The kicking game was money last year, BLD.  I don't get it?

HCAlum86,

Hiram has generally been able to put up points against OWU so we could easily see a game that looks like 49-35.  At this point I'm not entirely sure which team will be the 49.

I admit I over stated how well the kicking game was last year. I stand corrected. But in the close games they seemed to get those FG.

Thanks to all.

[ExTartanPlayer]

The kicking game was money last year, BLD.  I don't get it?

HCAlum86,

Hiram has generally been able to put up points against OWU so we could easily see a game that looks like 49-35.  At this point I'm not entirely sure which team will be the 49.

I admit I over stated how well the kicking game was last year. I stand corrected. But in the close games they seemed to get those FG.

Thanks to all.

This is the correct point.  It's not that OWU's kicking game was perfect last year - it's more that Mackenzie made a few clutch FG's that won them a game or two (Case in particular), so it was easy to follow the narrative of OWU's stellar kicking game putting them over the top in close games.  Now that's gone the other way, and suddenly the borderline-playoff-team OWU looks again like a "merely pretty good" OWU team.  We always forget how much randomness there is in the outcome of close games.  Games decided by 14+ points, you can be pretty sure that if they played again, the same team would win.  Games decided by three points, you never know.  Hence my non-surprise at OWU losing to DePauw and Denison this year.  We spent too much time evaluating OWU by last season's 9-1 record and not enough considering that to repeat that record, they really would have to be 1-2 notches better than they were last year.

[The_Bishop]

I will add briefly that as a former player, the kicking game for OWU was customarily somewhere between disastrous and embarrassing.  Extra points were an adventure.  If the potential field goal was longer than 30-32 yards, forget about even sending the FG team on the field.  Thus, not only am I biased by some of the clutch kicks MacKenzie pulled out last year, I'm also jaded by the fact that OWU has actually been attempting field goals in the range of 35-45 yards over the past 4 years, with varying degrees of success.

Wally's post pretty much nailed it.  The defense simply has no identity this year and what I thought would be Espinosa's laser show with his returning senior receivers has been just OK most of the time.  I hear that the early over/under on OWU/Wooster is 116.

[ADL70]

Even against CWRU last year MacKenzie missed from 25 and 36, before making the clutch 46 yarder at the end.

[HCAlum86]

The kicking game was money last year, BLD.  I don't get it?

HCAlum86,

Hiram has generally been able to put up points against OWU so we could easily see a game that looks like 49-35.  At this point I'm not entirely sure which team will be the 49.

I agree. If I were to set a point total for this game it would probably be around 75. I think it really all has to do with OWU's ability to pass the ball vertically. A game that turns into an absolute track meet favors OWU. However, if Hiram can make the few key stops they need, I really do like the Terriers chances in this one. Especially after learning of how OWU's run defense was thrashed against Depauw. With that being said, I do not think we can assume that automatically translates into Hiram rushing for 200 yards. But I really do like our chances if we can hold them to the 35-41 range. I feel that is a very attainable goal, just allowing a little over 1 TD per quarter.

[bashbrother]

Wabash /Kenyon Game highlights.....

http://youtu.be/z_Ew_Jol9kg

Quite a running game.....   and that one-handed catch by our TE was pretty amazing

[nike]

Not playing Witt last year helped OWU's season immensely also. Depending on where in the schedule they would have played the other elite program in the conference, POY may have been different as well as the conference championship.  Each season, however, is different.
Do not want to get beyond this week's game, but we play OWU here on Nov. 16th.  That will be a good one.
Hope that Espinosa and Barnes both stay healthy until then.

[bashgiant]

Can anybody fill me in on what happened to OWU this weekend. Were they outplayed or just mentally not there?

I think this loss gives Hiram a real opportunity to have an upper-hand mentally going into this game. OWU came into this season with lofty aspirations; as they very well should have, with a QB at the helm with Espinonsa's prowess and proven skill players. Any deflated confidence will be needed for the Terriers to get this victory, as they will come into this game with a sense of confidence that they had not held previously, especially coming off a bye. No disrespect to OWU, as I have nothing but respect for the Bishops as they are normally a very entertaining team to watch, and an equally as hard to beat as they are fun to watch.

So, long story short, my question made brief: What was the cause of OWU's defeat and what tangible impact (if any) does everyone think it will have going into this week??

Espinosa might not have been 100%, he had a pretty rough go of things against Wabash. Might have had a bad case of the
Carson Palmer's.

[HCAlum86]

Espinosa might not have been 100%, he had a pretty rough go of things against Wabash. Might have had a bad case of the
Carson Palmer's.

I can appreciate what you're saying, but it may be a little unfair to Espinosa for you to say that, considering he has shared, in my opinion, best QB in the conference with Florence the past two years, and had even less to work with. I'm not sure if that was a jab at Espinosa that you took, so my apologies if I misinterpreted it. But if anything I'd say he had more of a case of the "Peyton Manning's", where a dominant performance is typical and expected, and when it isn't achieved it is looked at as a disaster.

[bashgiant]

Espinosa might not have been 100%, he had a pretty rough go of things against Wabash. Might have had a bad case of the
Carson Palmer's.

I can appreciate what you're saying, but it may be a little unfair to Espinosa for you to say that, considering he has shared, in my opinion, best QB in the conference with Florence the past two years, and had even less to work with. I'm not sure if that was a jab at Espinosa that you took, so my apologies if I misinterpreted it. But if anything I'd say he had more of a case of the "Peyton Manning's", where a dominant performance is typical and expected, and when it isn't achieved it is looked at as a disaster.

Should have explained myself. The first few years Carson was with the Bengals he was on his back as much as he was on his feet, and played hurt quite a bit and would rush passes even if for some odd reason he had time to throw. Man those were some rough years to be a Bengals fan.