FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

HELP

I need some of you in the know to give me a clue as to who will win the Wittenberg/Wabash matchup this weekend.  I've included it as the out of conference game in our pickem so it's worth 5 points that I desperately need.

Wabash.

[BashBacker#16]

It's Witt week!  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nUxCik07q3s

I'm going to predict this atmosphere (tailgating, home crowd, etc.) will be a slight notch below a Monon Bell game.  This rivalry truly is one of the best each season.  Its a much different feel from the Bell game.  I have a couple of buddies that will be seeing their first Bash/Witt game and will be interested to get their input afterwards.

WabCol86 - I'm not sure about the remark regarding Putco automatically being a 3-year starter.  Being the incumbent certainly gives him an edge but I think Belton and Rice will push and compete for that spot.  BTW:  Rice was battling the flu Saturday and couldn't dress.  It was cool to see Belton.

WAF

[wabashcpa]

They are in for a treat.  Hope my son's game is early on Saturday so we can make it. 

[jknezek]

HELP

I need some of you in the know to give me a clue as to who will win the Wittenberg/Wabash matchup this weekend.  I've included it as the out of conference game in our pickem so it's worth 5 points that I desperately need.

Considering the dearth of Wittenberg posters on this board, I think you'll get a pretty good consensus of who the board thinks will win. Not saying they are wrong, mind you...

[wally_wabash]

Here's a little tale of the tape for this week:

Stat	Wabash	Nat'l Rank	Witt	Nat'l Rank
Rush O	262.10	17	211.30	49
Pass O	158.10	192	303.30	16
Total O	420.30	58	514.50	9
Scoring O	51.40	4	46.80	7
Rush D	53.50	2	86.80	9
Pass Eff. D	83.26	4	121.05	103
Total D	196.50	3	280.90	19
Scoring D	7.10	2	17.60	48
Net Punting	38.48	3	27.05	224
Punt Ret	14.22	13	12.20	29
KO Ret	29.90	1	23.52	32
TO Margin	3.30	1	-0.80	t-189
Pass D	143.00	13	194.10	t-92
Pass Eff	154.55	23	182.04	4
Sacks	4.13	1	3.13	t-21
TFL	11.90	1	8.30	t-29
Sacks Against	1.38	t-75	1.00	t-33

[wabco]

What is weather supposed to be Saturday in C-ville?  I think Wabash is healthy ... except for season ending injuries to first two RBs.  Is this correct to best knowledge?  What is status of Witt health, if anyone knows?  I look for big crowd and great tailgates.  WAF

[badgerwarhawk]

Here's a little tale of the tape for this week:

Stat	Wabash	Nat'l Rank	Witt	Nat'l Rank
Rush O	262.10	17	211.30	49
Pass O	158.10	192	303.30	16
Total O	420.30	58	514.50	9
Scoring O	51.40	4	46.80	7
Rush D	53.50	2	86.80	9
Pass Eff. D	83.26	4	121.05	103
Total D	196.50	3	280.90	19
Scoring D	7.10	2	17.60	48
Net Punting	38.48	3	27.05	224
Punt Ret	14.22	13	12.20	29
KO Ret	29.90	1	23.52	32
TO Margin	3.30	1	-0.80	t-189
Pass D	143.00	13	194.10	t-92
Pass Eff	154.55	23	182.04	4
Sacks	4.13	1	3.13	t-21
TFL	11.90	1	8.30	t-29
Sacks Against	1.38	t-75	1.00	t-33

Thanks, this help a lot and it's exactly what my next step was going to be. 

[bashbrother]

What is weather supposed to be Saturday in C-ville?

Right now the early forecast is:

Mostly cloudy. High of 52F. Breezy. Winds from the SSW at 15 to 20 mph.

As we all know this time of year,  it could change quite a bit by the end of the week.    Wind is not Wittenberg's friend with their desire to throw down field....  A SSW wind would pretty much be a cross wind, which could be tricky for down field passing and the kicking game.

[cave2bens]

Here's a little tale of the tape for this week:

Stat	Wabash	Nat'l Rank	Witt	Nat'l Rank
Rush O	262.10	17	211.30	49
Pass O	158.10	192	303.30	16
Total O	420.30	58	514.50	9
Scoring O	51.40	4	46.80	7
Rush D	53.50	2	86.80	9
Pass Eff. D	83.26	4	121.05	103
Total D	196.50	3	280.90	19
Scoring D	7.10	2	17.60	48
Net Punting	38.48	3	27.05	224
Punt Ret	14.22	13	12.20	29
KO Ret	29.90	1	23.52	32
TO Margin	3.30	1	-0.80	t-189
Pass D	143.00	13	194.10	t-92
Pass Eff	154.55	23	182.04	4
Sacks	4.13	1	3.13	t-21
TFL	11.90	1	8.30	t-29
Sacks Against	1.38	t-75	1.00	t-33

Nevermind the LG's +26 in turnover margin - #1 (#2 at +18), including 7 (seven) Pick 6's and a couple blocked punt TDs

[bashbrother]

Wabash's  +26 Turnover margin not only leads in Div. III,  It leads the NCAA at any level.   The next closest is U. of Houston (FBS) at +20.

[BashBacker#16]

Let's hope this holds...Sat Nov 9: High 52° Low 33° Mostly Sunny Chance of rain: 0% Wind: SW at 14 mph.  I could take some more wind

WabashCPA - make a call, make it happen...  Can't your son just ride with a friend to his game?  Hahaha.  Kidding.

There are some really good highlights from past Bash/Witt games on Youtube.  2008 was a classic, Wabash 13, Witt 10.  Wabash had Darryl Kennon & Bubba Lange on the D front...

Is it too early for score predictions?  I'm anxious to see the Bash D against the Witt O.  Wow.

[BashBacker#16]

Or this one!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8wAUM-uqxr8

Any chance Thomas Bell (I think that is #28 for Wabash) knocks him out of bounds on this play if he does catch it?

[wabndy]

Just did a post on the north region fan poll page on my (semi-educated) guesses for north region rankings.  The sub-plot to this is a purely academic subject on whether Wabash or Wittenberg deserved to be ranked higher in the region, using the NCAA's criteria, based solely upon the work done thus far.

Criteria
W/L percentage against d3 opponents: wash
D3 head 2 head: not decided yet
Results vs ranked d3 teams: neither team has played an opponent likely to be regionally ranked
D3 strength of schedule: advantage wittenberg
Team SOS ranking OWP (OWP rank, OOWP, NCAA aggregate). 
Wabash 145  .4643  (152) .5068 0.478 
Wittenberg 102    .5102 (97) .5078 0.509 

Results vs. common D3 opponents:
This one was the most interesting.  Here are the comparative results against common opponents:
Oberlin: (Witt 59-0)  (Wab 27-10)  Adv. Witt
Hiram: (Witt 49-9) (Wab 66-0)  Adv. Wab
Denison: (Witt 38-20) (Wab 50-13)  Adv. Wab
Wooster: (Witt 66-39) (Wab 48-14) Adv. Wab
Kenyon: (Witt 38-7) (Wab 48-7) Adv. Wab
OWU: (Witt 55-17) (Wab 38-13)  Adv. Witt
So by a score of 4 opponents to 2, Wabash blew out opponents better than Witt.

Points scored for    Witt  305   Wab  277   (Witt scored more against common opponents)
Points scored against    Witt  92    Wab  57  (Wabash allowed fewer points by common opponents)

My guess was that they'd have to look at secondary criteria and rank Wabash higher due to Witt's D1 loss.  Just using primary criteria, SOS signifigantly favors Witt and results against common opponents slightly favors Wabash. 

Should be a great game to watch saturday.

[bashbrother]

Early Keys to the Game -

1.  Can Wabash run effectively against Witt's Defense?   I look for Witt to load the box and try and force Wabash to beat them by passing the ball.    If Wabash Can Run:   It could be a long day for Witt    If Wabash cannot:   Our passing game will be asked to do something it has not done all year....   Carry the offensive. -   Advantage:   To be seen.

2.  Witt's Big Play Potential on Offense (Passing)   -  R. Florence has had success throwing deep all year.   Wabash's D has rarely been tested with success.  (4 pass completions against of 20+ yards)   Witt has completed    37 - passes of 20 or more yards... 24% of total completions -   (11 - 30 to 39 yards)  (6 - 40 to 49 yards) & (2 - 50 + yards).   Advantage:  Witt    (IF wind stays under 15 mph....  20+ mph.... advantage to Wabash)

3.  Turnovers/mistakes -   WITT - has turned the ball over 17 times (9 fumbles, 8 int.)   They have caused 11 TO's
Wabash – has turned the ball over  10 times (6 fumbles, 4 int)  They have caused 36 TO's.    I believe this will be the BEST defense that Witt will have faced all year.  Outside of Butler.... the Best by far.   It will also be the best D Wabash will have faced.   Can the Teams keep it clean?   - Advantage:  Wabash

4.  Field Position -   Could be a huge key in this game,  especially if either team's D, slows down the others offense.

Net punting (Thanks Wally for stats) -   Wabash Net Punting   -  38.48/per punt.    Witt - 27.05/per punt

Add this to the return team statistics also being in Wabash's favor....   Advantage: Wabash

5.  Eliminating Costly Penalties -   In a game where field position is critical and offensive yards will be at a premium, Both teams need to eliminate penalties that either end their own drives or extend the opponents drives.    For the Season:  Witt has 59 penalties for 503 yards,  Wabash has 56 for 507 yards.   The teams are LAST in the conference in penalties per game.

more to come.....

Interesting Questions to keep an eye on:

1.  Does Wabash come out passing with Witt's D - game planning to stop the run?  Witt has given up plenty of passing yards this year.

2.  In what way can Witt change it up a bit to keep Wabash's D off-balance?   Do they employ plays like screens and the half-back pass (Oberlin) that was successful?  (Watch for it on Saturday.)  to keep Wabash's aggressive up field defense in check.

3.  Michael Putko has shown some good maturity this year...  how does he handle his first really "BIG" game?   Does Witt disguise coverage to try and bait him into throws/mistakes?


   
 

[BashBacker#16]

BashBro,

I am definitely concerned about the Witt passing attack against the Wabash D, no question.  Having said that, I like a lot of what Bash will bring on D.  Very good pressure on the QB - whether we get him or not, he will be under pressure all day long.  Scola, Buresh, Akinribade, McCullen - they will bring heat...  By the way, how about when Bash's front all goes from a 2-point and picks any gap they want!!!  We also may have one of the most talented D-back units we have had for a very long time - guys that are physical, opportunistic, and can run.  I don't think Reed Florence is going to sit back there and chuck long balls down the field.

Your take:  Witt's Big Play Potential on Offense (Passing)   -  R. Florence has had success throwing deep all year.   Wabash's D has rarely been tested with success.  (4 pass completions against of 20+ yards)   Witt has completed    37 - passes of 20 or more yards... 24% of total completions -   (11 - 30 to 39 yards)  (6 - 40 to 49 yards) & (2 - 50 + yards).   Advantage:  Witt    (IF wind stays under 15 mph....  20+ mph.... advantage to Wabash)

Florence really hasn't been pressured throughout a game all season with the exception of maybe, the Butler game.  Statistically, they are a bit jaded knowing they had more success late in the game but he went 26 for 40, 298, 2 TD's, and 2 INT's.  I really feel Florence will have be play very well (maybe not mistake-free) for a Witt victory.

I don't know that I would give the advantage to Witt here but like I said, I am concerned, and Bash will have to prevent the big play...