FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[firstdown]

Congrats to Justin Woods for being names to the D3football Team of the Week.   

[bashgiant]

Congrats to Justin Woods for being names to the D3football Team of the Week.   

And for setting the Wabash record for the most interception return yards in a game.

[bashbrother]

Ok,  it is only Tuesday and I have already blown myself up looking at statistics breaking down what I think will happen on Saturday...

I will just leave it as:

Witt Offense  vs.  Wabash Defense.....   Whichever side wins this battle.... wins this game.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Bold Predictions Alert:

I think whichever team scores more points will win the game.

You can't get this kind of analysis anywhere else, folks.

[bashbrother]

Bold Predictions Alert:

I think whichever team scores more points will win the game.

You can't get this kind of analysis anywhere else, folks.

Nice....  I hadn't thought of it that way...    

OK.... here it goes     Wabash 24  Witt 17

[firstdown]

Ok,  it is only Tuesday and I have already blown myself up looking at statistics breaking down what I think will happen on Saturday...

I will just leave it as:

Witt Offense  vs.  Wabash Defense.....   Whichever side wins this battle.... wins this game.

Bashbro - No question that this is one of the keys to the game.  If you remember last year's game, the long drive on the ground in the fourth quarter by the Wabash offense was also key to the outcome.  No question that Wabash has gotten great play from both the defense and special teams this year.  The offense has needed a bit longer to round into form with a new quarterback and the loss of 2 1,000 yard + running backs.  The defense and special teams have taken the pressure off of the offense to give it the needed time.  I think that the key to victory on Saturday is a solid game from all 3 phases.

[wally_wabash]

Ok,  it is only Tuesday and I have already blown myself up looking at statistics breaking down what I think will happen on Saturday...

I will just leave it as:

Witt Offense  vs.  Wabash Defense.....   Whichever side wins this battle.... wins this game.

Bashbro - No question that this is one of the keys to the game.  If you remember last year's game, the long drive on the ground in the fourth quarter by the Wabash offense was also key to the outcome.  No question that Wabash has gotten great play from both the defense and special teams this year.  The offense has needed a bit longer to round into form with a new quarterback and the loss of 2 1,000 yard + running backs.  The defense and special teams have taken the pressure off of the offense to give it the needed time.  I think that the key to victory on Saturday is a solid game from all 3 phases.

I guess I still don't get this.  If you scrub away the touchdowns scored by the defense and special teams and only count offensive touchdowns, the PATs from those TDs, and FGs, Wabash still scores 40 points per game.  40 points!!  That would be 21st nationally.  Wabash has the 17th best rush offense in the nation.  Where is all of this struggling that Wabash's offense has done? 

Here's what it looks like when you have a stellar defense and an offense that struggles-  WashU.  It looks like 7-0 games against Macalester and 10-7 2OT games against Rhodes.  That's what it looks like.  It doesn't look like 66-0 and 50-14 and 38-13.  That's not an offense just trying to figure it all out. 

[bashbrother]

I believe Wabash has a good to very good offense....  With a big IF...... If they are able to run the ball.    We have not seen this offense be carried by the passing game this year... We simply haven't needed the pass much and many of the passes we have thrown have been set up by our effectiveness running the ball.  Also,  from watching film,  I am sure that a quality opponent would recognize that Putko,  while effective, does not have the world's strongest arm.   Not a slight.... just educated observation.  Thus, they know we are not throwing too many bombs.

The weak spot of Witt's Defense, I believe, is that you can pass on them.   Thus,  I hope Wabash's game plan coming in, is to open with some passing on running downs.   A couple of completed passes early will help to open up the running game during the rest of the game.

Hope to see a steady dose of Klembara on Saturday.

 

[firstdown]

Wally

The Wabash offense has indeed played quite well this season.  With a new quarterback and having to adjust to the loss of 2 ace running backs, it has had to reinvent itself a couple of times this season, and  having a big offensive line hasn't hurt either.  Having the luxury of not having to face intense pressure does not hurt.  Think about what the Colts offense faced in the first half of the game with Houston on Monday night with replacing Reggie Wayne and having to adjust to the scheme that was used by the Houston defense that was creating intense pressure on Luck.  Obviously Luck is the consummate professional and remained cool under fire.  A lot of pro teams have brought in wonderkind quarterbacks from college and having thrown them in the mix too rapidly, seen them get ruined.

Putko has had time to develop and get comfortable, and most importantly, he doesn't make a lot of mistakes that result in turn overs and interceptions.  Coach Raeburn has done a great job of adding new pieces into Putko kit bag each week.  Further for the Little Giants to be able to recover from the loss of both Holmes and Zurek at running back is nothing short of amazing.  Stella, Klembara, Porter and Gibson have all really done a great job stepping in.  I remember another young offense for the Little Giants in 2003 putting up 41 points on Wittenberg. 

[bashbrother]

I remember another young offense for the Little Giants in 2003 putting up 41 points on Wittenberg.

Probably my 2nd favorite Wabash game EVER!!!  (North Central Playoff game was my favorite)   One of only two games in this series that could be considered a blowout.

2000 -  Witt beat Wabash 41-10
2003 -  Wabash beat Witt -  41-14

As has been brought up many times before.... this series is close....Other than those two games... this game has been decided by a TD or less  7 of 11 times.   

[sigma one]

One factor that we have not mentioned is that the effective Wabash defense repeatedly gives the offense good field position.  As Wally says, the offense scores about 40 ppg.  I think that one could argue that a fair number of those points have resulted from short fields.  Again, that is not to say that the offense has not had good moments and longer drives.  I'm going to take a look at how many Wabash drives have started on the opponents' side of the 50.  That may help broaden our understanding.
     Of course, that's the point.  It's the Wabash defense controlling the game, that in part helps the offense show so effectively.  And I am not saying that the offensive is anemic.
     If Wabash can control field position, make Witt drive the ball 70-80+ yards most of the day, Witt will have a tough go. this defense.  Witt has been able to wrack up plenty of yards, meaning that they have been able to take the ball down the field.  The number of first downs they have accumulated testifies to their ability to move the chains, not just rely on the big play.  But this is a different defense from any they have seen, Butler excluded.
       
     
     

[sigma one]

OK, a quick and dirty set of numbers on Wabash field position. I may be slightly off, but the point does not change.
         
                              Wabash has started a total of 105 drives this season that did not end at the end of a half or end of a game.
                              Of those 105, 39 started on the opponents' side of the field--25 have resulted in a TD or FG (37%/24%).
                              Additionally, Wabash has started another 14 drives between the Wabash 40 and midfield--6 have resulted
                                   in scores. 
                              So, 105 possessions:  53 at the Wabash 40 or beyond;  31 resulting in a TD or FG (50%/30%).

     A few of the starting points have been because of kick or interception returns; several from turns-over (turn-overs?) on downs.  Most have been as a result of teams forced to punt, often into the wind as Wabash played the field-position game. 
     I suppose this could get much more sophisticated, with length of opponents' punts from what yardage in their own end, forced by the Wabash defense holding them down, etc.
     I don't know what I would find if I charted all the top teams, or the entire NCAC, of just Wittenberg (or alternatively the number and percentage of long drives, say, 65-70 yards + by Wittenberg)
     In the end, since I'm not doing comparisons, I'm not sure what this all means.  But 50% of all offensive possessions not farther than 60 yards from the opponents' goal line makes it seem like the defense is giving the offensive a huge advantage.  Then the offense has been able to operate fully--successfully.   Someone:  I would be interested in knowing what is the average %age of offensive possessions resulting in scores. Some stats guy must know this.
                               

[bashbrother]

So I went to take a look at the Butler/Witt game.   I wanted to look at it because Butler is by far the closest defensive opponent to Wabash that Witt will have faced this year.    I didn't watch the game on 9/7, simply watched the scores come across....  What I found is somewhat surprising.

First of all,  Witt started the game about as badly as they could have.   Here is a list of their 1st half drives:

12 plays -  63 yards -  Field Goal
3 plays - 4 yards - INT
3 plays - 3 yards - Punt
8 plays - 44 yards - Fumble
13 plays - 66 yards - INT
6 plays - 16 yards - Punt
2 plays - 15 yards - Fumble
1 play - -1 yard - Fumble
2 plays - -2 yards -  Half

5 turnovers in the first half?   Down 42-3?   Don't know many teams that would be able to hold it together after a half like that.   This does though change my impression of Butler's strength a bit.. (Franklin's win...  Witt's strength etc.)   Witt came out an totally laid an egg.....  now I am sure Butler's defense had something major to do with the turnovers and I don't know how much of Witt's offensive production in the 2nd half was against Butler's 2's and 3's.....   It was an interesting look though...   Did anyone on here watch that game?

[sigma one]

I attended the Butler-Wittenberg game and wrote a brief summary of what I saw early in the following week.  Butler jumped all over them early, and Witt seemed flustered.  If I recall corrrectly ((I know I do about the Butler QB, RBs, and WRs) Butler pulled in its horns in he second half.  The QB did not play at all.
     Witt did appear to settle down in the second half and play with more poise.  I left with about 6 minutes to play.  Witt scored twice after my departure to make the score somewhat more respectable.  I said at the time that Butler looked superior in all phases of the game in the first half.  Second half was more even.  To me, it makes the Franklin result more impressive for the Grizzlies.
     The only caution I register is that it was the first game of the season, and first games, as we know, are sometimes poor predictors or how teams will do later.  I recall Wabash going up to Kalamazoo for an opener and not making a first down in the first half--and getting beat.  So in the end, I really don't know what to make of the result.
     I've seen two full Wittenberg games live on the internet.  They certainly look skilled and balanced.   I watched the Wittenberg-Wooster game turn into a track meet, and I can't decide if that was such an odd circumstance that it should be disregarded--all those points for both sides--Witt's against a poor Scots' defense (particularly v. the pass), and Woo's against a Witt defense that seemed to have little idea how to stop Barnes that night.  And I don't believe Hackel played.

       

[wally_wabash]

I watched the first quarter and a half or so of the Witt/Butler game...my thoughts:

- Butler destroyed Witt at the LOS.  Florence had no time to run any offense and even great players can't do much of anything when they aren't getting protection.

- Butler was three steps faster than Witt the entire time I watched.  They looked like they had superior athletes all over the place. 

That said...

- The following week, Franklin was able to hold that same team down for most of the game which drastically changed my perception of Wittenberg's performance- which I had more or less chalked up to Butler being FCS and my expectation was that Witt would be overwhelmed. 

And with that said...

- Butler had already played a game, Witt had not.  Now when you're already at a talent disadvantage (which probably wasn't as extreme as it looked on that night), and you're getting into game speed for the very first time, you're ripe for a blitzkrieg.  Which is what happened. 

I think it's also important right now to remember that that game happened 2 months ago.  How much of that increased speed of play has carried over to November, I don't know.  I kind of feel like it is fairly negligible at this point.  How well would Franklin have played if that were their first game or if they hadn't tuned up with Mount Union the week before? 

If there are things to take away from that, maybe it's that Wittenberg didn't deal well with a fast, aggressive defense that attacked the pocket.  But how much better is Witt's line play going to be 9 weeks later?  Certainly they're better than they showed on the first game of the year. 

I guess what I'm leaning to here, for me at least, is that I'm not putting much into that result.  Things that are interesting much more this week are Wittenberg's run defense and takeaways.  Wabash has 36 takeaways (18 fumbles, 18 INTs....4.5 total per game) while Witt has just 11 (8 INTs, 3 fumbles...just under 1.5 total per game).  That's something that I think can and will carry over into Saturday's game.