FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[badgerwarhawk]

Ok, so I checked out the past seasons back to 1999 and neither team has won three consecutive times during that stetch.  Wabash leads the series 7-6 but they have won the last two games.  Will they break the trend? 

[wally_wabash]

Ok, so I checked out the past seasons back to 1999 and neither team has won three consecutive times during that stetch.  Wabash leads the series 7-6 but they have won the last two games.  Will they break the trend?

I'm going with....yes. 

[GRIZ_BACKER]

I watched the first quarter and a half or so of the Witt/Butler game...my thoughts:

- Butler destroyed Witt at the LOS.  Florence had no time to run any offense and even great players can't do much of anything when they aren't getting protection.

- Butler was three steps faster than Witt the entire time I watched.  They looked like they had superior athletes all over the place. 

That said...

- The following week, Franklin was able to hold that same team down for most of the game which drastically changed my perception of Wittenberg's performance- which I had more or less chalked up to Butler being FCS and my expectation was that Witt would be overwhelmed. 

And with that said...

- Butler had already played a game, Witt had not.  Now when you're already at a talent disadvantage (which probably wasn't as extreme as it looked on that night), and you're getting into game speed for the very first time, you're ripe for a blitzkrieg.  Which is what happened. 

I think it's also important right now to remember that that game happened 2 months ago.  How much of that increased speed of play has carried over to November, I don't know.  I kind of feel like it is fairly negligible at this point.  How well would Franklin have played if that were their first game or if they hadn't tuned up with Mount Union the week before? 

If there are things to take away from that, maybe it's that Wittenberg didn't deal well with a fast, aggressive defense that attacked the pocket.  But how much better is Witt's line play going to be 9 weeks later?  Certainly they're better than they showed on the first game of the year. 

I guess what I'm leaning to here, for me at least, is that I'm not putting much into that result.  Things that are interesting much more this week are Wittenberg's run defense and takeaways.  Wabash has 36 takeaways (18 fumbles, 18 INTs....4.5 total per game) while Witt has just 11 (8 INTs, 3 fumbles...just under 1.5 total per game).  That's something that I think can and will carry over into Saturday's game.

The again Franklin is could be 2-3 TD's better than Witt.  I doubt Franklin's performance was a fluke two weeks in a row. My predicton: Franklin would bea Witt by 20 and I think Wabash's defense would limit Franklin 7-10 points more than Witt.  Wabash 24 Witt 14.

[bashgiant]

Will this game be big enough to sell out Hollett Little Giant Stadium?

[sigma one]

I'm not sure about sell out, however that is defined.  The game will certainly fill the Wabash side of Hollett, I would suppose.
    On the other side, if the Butler game is any indication, Wittenberg will travel extremely well, although I don't think they will fill the north side of the stadium; I hope I am wrong.  Capacity at Hollett is around 5000.
     The Monon Belll game being next week may reduce the alumni who will attend on Saturday, some not able to travel two weeks in succession or able to get off work on two Saturdays (particularly young alums making their way up in the world).
     I'm giving odds that the crowd will be announced, though, at above 5000, with the way Wabash fans circulate, not all of them becoming fannies in seats.

[Wabash Hokie]

I'm not sure about sell out, however that is defined.  The game will certainly fill the Wabash side of Hollett, I would suppose.
    On the other side, if the Butler game is any indication, Wittenberg will travel extremely well, although I don't think they will fill the north side of the stadium; I hope I am wrong.  Capacity at Hollett is around 5000.
     The Monon Belll game being next week may reduce the alumni who will attend on Saturday, some not able to travel two weeks in succession or able to get off work on two Saturdays (particularly young alums making their way up in the world).
     I'm giving odds that the crowd will be announced, though, at above 5000, with the way Wabash fans circulate, not all of them becoming fannies is seats.

Based on the alumni I have spoken to, I think more will be there than you anticipate.  Since the Monon Bell game is at DePauw, those not wanting to travel two weeks in row can watch the game at home or at their local sports bar.  I think the pre-game tailgate will be more like a DePauw game than homecoming.  Wish I could be there but....

[sigma one]

WH, in fact I agree.  Some alums do not like to go to games in Greencastle.  If I could attend only one of the two games this year--
Wittenberg or DPU--I would probably choose this Saturday.    With Wabash's success in Bell Games recently the Wabash/DPU team records this year, Witt would be the game of choice. 
     I do think, a topic for next week, that Lynch will bring his guys to play.

[firstdown]

On Saturday, Witt will face the best defense that it has seen all year, and Wabash will face the best offense that it has seen.

The Wabash defense is statistically better than Butler's defense in average yards allowed per game 198 to 428; average rushing yards allowed per game 55.3 to 120; averaging passing yards allowed per game 143 to 308; and average points per game 7.1 to 27.9.  Comparing Wabash to Bulter: interceptions 33 to 18; quarterback sacks 33 to 19; and defensive TD's - 9 to 2. 

Obviously Butler is playing a much better group of opponents so the stats can be discounted to degree. 

In terms of player size, the Wabash defensive line on average is 2 to 3 inches taller than Butler's, and the average weight is pretty comparable.  Butler's linebackers are on average 1 to 2 inches taller than Wabash's, but the average weight is pretty comparable.  In terms of defensive backs, Butler has 2 DB's that are over 6 feet, and Wabash has one.  The average weights are pretty comparable.

Finally, I only had the opportunity to watch Butler once this year in its game against Wittenberg, so comparing defensive speed is more diffcult.  Nonetheless, Wabash's defense is built for speed particularly among the linebackers and defensive backs. 

Witt is much improved since its opening game with Butler.  So it will be interesting to watch this match up of strength versus strength on Saturday.

[ExTartanPlayer]

The Wabash defense is statistically better than Butler's defense in average yards allowed per game 198 to 428; average rushing yards allowed per game 55.3 to 120; averaging passing yards allowed per game 143 to 308; and average points per game 7.1 to 27.9.  Comparing Wabash to Bulter: interceptions 33 to 18; quarterback sacks 33 to 19; and defensive TD's - 9 to 2. 

Obviously Butler is playing a much better group of opponents so the stats can be discounted to degree. 

I know that you qualified this, but in my mind the difference in opposition is so large that these stat comparisons are essentially meaningless.  Butler's opponents aren't just better, they're light years better than the Wabash opponents this year, and that's not a knock on Wabash, just a reality.  This is like comparing an SEC team's defensive statistics to a Sun Belt Conference team's defensive statistics.

In my mind the more fascinating note is the comparison of how the three games against common, semi-competent NCAC opponents: Ohio Wesleyan, Wooster, and Denison.  Wittenberg allowed each to trade scores for a while (17 first-half points to OWU, 25 to Wooster, and 17 to Denison) while Wabash allowed 7, 7, and 0 first-half points, respectively.  Obviously Wittenberg's firepower won the day in each game but it still shows me that the Wittenberg defense is quite a bit more suspect than the Wabash defense; and while the defenses aren't playing each other head-to-head, I still think this is worth noting.  I suspect, although I can't be certain, that Wabash's offense and return game are much better than that of the three teams listed here and thus they will be able to put quite a few points on the board.  The question is whether the Wittenberg offense is SO good that it can overcome the Wabash defense which, as noted, has nearly shut down even the 3rd, 4th, and 5th-best offenses that the NCAC seems to offer.

[MIAA in Exile]

Some Wabash shout-outs in this article on Chris Creighton (Kenyon '91)

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20131105/SPORTS05/131105008/0/news/?odyssey=nav%7Chead

[bashgiant]

Is this board broke? I was thinking there would be all kinds of chatter with the regional rankings out today. I am still learning D3 football so my input would be about useless but I am learning and trying to soak up as much as I can.

[ExTartanPlayer]

Is this board broke? I was thinking there would be all kinds of chatter with the regional rankings out today. I am still learning D3 football so my input would be about useless but I am learning and trying to soak up as much as I can.

There's plenty of chatter, just not on this thread.  Check out the Pool B and Pool C threads in the General football forum and the respective Fan Poll threads in each region's sub-forum.  That's where a lot of the RR-centric chatter has clustered.

[bashgiant]

Thank you

[wally_wabash]

Regional rankings and how they matter here...I don't know that we learned anything groundbreaking today.  I was a little surprised that Wabash was 3rd and Witt was 4th.  I thought Wabash might have been 4th or 5th and Witt a touch lower than that (lower than Franklin certainly...I think that was the biggest surprise there).  I think I can pretty comfortably say the following:

- The loser of Saturday's game is probably going to drop below IWU next week and then will eventually also be beneath the OAC runner up (provided Mount Union goes 10-0).  The 9-1 runner up in the OAC will have a win against a regionally ranked team and will therefore have better marks per the selection criteria than the NCAC runner up will as that team will not have a win against a RRO. 

- Being the third at-large team in the region isn't a complete doomsday situation, but it won't be great.  All of the signs right now point to IWU, the OAC runner up, PLU, and the WIAC runner up being almost certainly in the field.  Although PLU is a little less certain today that I would have thought given that Pacific was not ranked and may not get ranked. 

- With those four teams in, that's going to leave (probably) Thomas More, (probably) Framingham State, a MIAC runner up, and the NCAC runner up in play for the fifth and final spot.  If Concordia-Moorhead doesn't lose to St. Thomas, they're getting in, probably ahead of PLU in the west which bumps PLU down to that fifth and final spot and they're hard to argue against.  If Moorhead does lose and the West brings a 2-loss team to the table there (probably St. Thomas), then it's an interesting conversation that could go any of the four possible ways. 

So what's the bottom line?  If you are rooting for two NCAC teams to get in to the tournament you'll be rooting hard for St. Thomas, rooting hard for the CCIW and OAC to play out nicely (no three way ties), and then you'll hope that somebody in the selection room is a really strong and persuasive advocate for that NCAC runner up. 

As for me, I'm rooting for chaos.  I want to see Wabash win on Saturday, win the Bell game by 100 points, and then have everybody else in the north region lose.  Heidelberg beats John Carroll.  John Carroll beats Mount Union.  Wheaton beats North Central.  And then, just like that, Wabash is the top seed in the region and has a reasonably decent chance of hosting games through the quarterfinals and wouldn't that be a boatload of fun.   

[Wabash Hokie]

Below is the link to the Wabash game notes for this weekend's showdown with Witt:

http://sports.wabash.edu/documents/2013/11/6/ReleaseNov62013.pdf?id=222