FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[firstdown]

Wabndy - Amen.

Griz - while it would be nice for Franklin to have one or more home playoff games, you do have your ticket punched, and whether you get an aisle, window, or middle seat, Franklin has a ticket. Franklin's goal is to get to Salem so whether you play the purple powers, MHB, or the best of the CCIW early or late, you are going to have to play them along the way.  While Franklin's games with Mount Union and Butler were early in the season, they demonstrated that Franklin can play with anybody.

[Li'l Giant]

Where do I think Wabash should get the non-league game from?  Chicago.  While those games agaiinst Chicago weren't very competitive, I think it was awesome to have a gameday presence in dowtown Chicago, which is an area where Wabash seems to always be wanting to do better from a student-athlete recruitment standpoint.  Bringing gameday to prospective students is hugely beneficial, IMO.  So I wouldn't mind seeing series with Chicago, Concordia-Chicago, Lake Forest, Elmhurst, North Park, Benedictine...something like that.

I like this idea.

[DPU3619]

I've said this several times - any team that is a regional game that you can win that also won't kill your OWP is worth a call. I think Chicago is a great idea. They're an average team. Good for .500 or so. Probably helps your OWP compared to the average NCAC team. On the other hand, HSC has been pretty good in the past 4 or 5 years. I'd be hesitant to put that game on Wabash's schedule in the event Wabash gets beat. You put so much more pressure on yourself in this format if you lose in non-conference. Then you almost have to win your conference to get in. Look at the North Region rankings. What if Franklin played a throw-away like Anderson instead of Mount Union? They almost certainly wouldn't be that low in the rankings. That's even without Franklin hitting a bump in the road along the way in the HCAC. If they did, they would probably be out of the playoffs altogether.

[wally_wabash]

So here's where I stand on Wabash/Witt.  Both sides do a lot of things extremely well.  As we know, Wabash plays amazing defense, has excellent special teams play, and grinds you down with a giant offensive line and solid running back play.  Witt's defense has shown some cracks, but if we're being honest, those cracks seem to have come in areas that I don't think Wabash is likely to attack (much).  Witt's offense has been phenomenal.  Reed Florence has been phenomenal.  It's going to be a lot of fun to see Wabash's defense against Florence and his offense. 

I've thought about how this series has played out since 2008.  The record is 3-2 in favor of Wabash, but I dug into a little deeper.  In 2008, Wabash won a 13-10 game and found a path to victory despite five turnovers.  In 2009, Wittenberg won 10-7 in a game where Wabash was without Matt Hudson (NCAC QB of the freakin' Decade), but also didn't have backup freshmen Chase Belton available (he did play a series, but I seem to recall that he was dinged a little from his spot start vs. Wooster the week before so he didn't get the start vs. Witt), and played with the third string QB.  Witt had senior beast Aaron Huffman and by all means should have blown Wabash's doors off that day, but didn't.  In 2010, they did blow Wabash's doors off.  500+ yards of offense, 34-17 final score.  They were just a lot better that day than Wabash was.  In 2011, Witt's high powered pass offense (the same one that lit Wabash up in 2010) got blitzed to death and managed 9 first downs and 156 yards of offense.  In 2012, Witt managed just 254 yards of offense and 11 first downs.  The game was 27-24....Witt had scoring drives of 2 yards, 26 yards, one long scoring drive that was keyed by a Florence 70+ yard scramble (phenomenal run...but it was his only significant play of the game). 

So I recapped that to make this point.  From where I'm sitting, in 4 of the last five games, I think Coach Raeburn and Coach Hammer have, pretty decisively, handled Coach Fincham.  This isn't to say that things don't change and evolve, but in 4 of the last 5 years, ER's scheme has frustrated and limited Wittenberg to a degree that you just don't see from other teams.  This is some history that I don't think can be ignored. 

So what happens on gameday?  I don't think Wabash is going to stray from what they've done all year.  Putko isn't going to throw the ball 30 times (if he has to, that's a bad sign for Wabash).  I expect Wabash to grind and grind and grind on Witt's defense.  There will be opportunities to take some shots (particularly when the wind is favorable), but for the most part you're going to see Wabash run and control the football.  It's going to be a lot like Stanford from last night...maybe not with 7 dudes wearing #90s jerseys on OL, but the idea is the same.  Grind into 3rd and short and convert.  And keep doing it.  Things get shaky for Wabash if Witt has great success against the run on 1st and 2nd down.  But that's stating the obvious. 

For Witt, I think the elements have to alter what they do, and not for the better.  If they can't throw for 2 quarters of this game, that hurts them a lot.  I think they're still going to chuck it a lot.  I'm thinking Florence will throw 30+ passes.  20 will probably be complete.  Of the rest, I think arond 5 are going to be 50/50 balls...opportunities for takeaways.  This is going to be a big part of the game.  These 5 or so chances where Witt puts possession of the ball in jeopardy (Wabash doesn't take these risks).  The outcomes of those plays will be a big part of the game story. 

Ultimately, I think more of this game will be played between the 30s than we've seen from Wabash and Witt's games this year.  One or two first downs, then a punt.  We'll see a good deal of this "stalemate" football I think.  But I think you'll see Wabash grind and tilt that field more and more and eventually win that battle.  It may take 3-4 possessions, but eventually, Wabash will get that field tilted in their favor. 

I believe Wabash is the better side (obviously) and all things being equal I think Wabash will keep Witt's offense pinned down and will grind out a win (a lot like 2012).  Where things get squirrely is if season-long trends get broken.  Witt doesn't turn people over.  If they turn Wabash over 2 or 3 times, maybe score off of one, maybe score from a kick return, then the dynamic changes.  If Wabash all of a sudden starts missing tackles (they don't and this is something we probably don't talk enough about...this team tackles as well as any Wabash defense I've seen), then the dynamic of the game changes.  If Wabash starts throwing bombs and connecting for 40, 50, 60 yard TDs, then the dynamic changes.  The team that breaks a trend in this game has a distinct advantage. 

Prediction.  I think it's really low scoring, you guys.  If the wind is going to do what it's supposed to do tomorrow, it's a bad day for offensive football.  I do think Wabash is better equipped (translation: less reliant on intermeidate-to-deep passing) to play in these conditions than Wittenberg is.  I think we're looking at something like 20-13 for Wabash tomorrow.  Which is the third different score I've posted somewhere.   

That got longer than I wanted here...but I havent' said much about this game all week.  I've been saving it up.  Can't wait to see how this one plays out tomorrow.  It's going to be a great game. 

[gobash83]

Where do I think Wabash should get the non-league game from?  Chicago.  While those games agaiinst Chicago weren't very competitive, I think it was awesome to have a gameday presence in dowtown Chicago, which is an area where Wabash seems to always be wanting to do better from a student-athlete recruitment standpoint.  Bringing gameday to prospective students is hugely beneficial, IMO.  So I wouldn't mind seeing series with Chicago, Concordia-Chicago, Lake Forest, Elmhurst, North Park, Benedictine...something like that.

I like this idea.

I agree.  I also wouldn't rule out going up to Michigan, where we have had success recruiting some very good football players and students in general.

[GRIZ_BACKER]

Wabndy - Amen.

Griz - while it would be nice for Franklin to have one or more home playoff games, you do have your ticket punched, and whether you get an aisle, window, or middle seat, Franklin has a ticket. Franklin's goal is to get to Salem so whether you play the purple powers, MHB, or the best of the CCIW early or late, you are going to have to play them along the way.  While Franklin's games with Mount Union and Butler were early in the season, they demonstrated that Franklin can play with anybody.

The bright side is that we ususally have a good chance for a Thanksgiving weekend road trip!!

[firstdown]

Wally

Thanks for your in depth analysis of tomorrow's game.  I think that the Stanford - Oregon analogy from last night's game is quite apt.  Cam Sobleski and Ian MacDougall will play key roles tomorrow.  I would not be surprised to see Sobleski get off one or two punts of 50 yards plus, and MacDougall will do his usual great job of creating touchbacks on kick offs, and make key field goal or two.

Mike Putko has done good job all season of playing within himself and making few mistakes.  I expect the same tomorrow and it would not surprise me to see Putko  add a new wrinkle or two in the right situation. 

Finally, the steady sw wind tomorrow with gusts to 25 mph can cause some funny things to happen to the ball flight in the passing game, both downwind and against the wind.  This will create as you noted some opportunities for a group that loves to capitalize on opportunities - the Wabash defensive backs.

[bashbrother]

One point that hasn't been brought up this week.

FOR WITT,  they have to make things happen in 2013....   They only return 3 or 4 starters on each side of the ball next year and although, they have a quality program with I am sure depth at most positions, it is very hard for any program not to fall back a little after losing so many seniors.   Especially when this Wabash team returns nearly everyone.

Erik Raeburn Show... http://youtu.be/s0stl2alnnU

WAF!

[wally_wabash]

Wally

Thanks for your in depth analysis of tomorrow's game.  I think that the Stanford - Oregon analogy from last night's game is quite apt.  Cam Sobleski and Ian MacDougall will play key roles tomorrow.  I would not be surprised to see Sobleski get off one or two punts of 50 yards plus, and MacDougall will do his usual great job of creating touchbacks on kick offs, and make key field goal or two.

Mike Putko has done good job all season of playing within himself and making few mistakes.  I expect the same tomorrow and it would not surprise me to see Putko  add a new wrinkle or two in the right situation. 

Finally, the steady sw wind tomorrow with gusts to 25 mph can cause some funny things to happen to the ball flight in the passing game, both downwind and against the wind.  This will create as you noted some opportunities for a group that loves to capitalize on opportunities - the Wabash defensive backs.

I love a good Cam Sobleski shuttle launch as much as the next guy, but I really hope we aren't punting a whole lot when we have the wind.  Would love to see Wabash cashing in those possessions. 

Here's a fun question....the winner of the coin toss is going to defer.  If you win, do you then give up a possession in the second half to get the wind in the 4th quarter? 

[firstdown]

Wally

I agree.  Field position will be an important part of tomorrow's game.

Bashbrother - there is a nice article in the current Bachelor about Holmes and Zurek, and their progress in recovering from their injuries.  There is a very good  chance that both will be back for spring practice.  The Little Giants will have quite a pool of running backs for next year with these two back, and Stella, Klembara, and Gibson.  CP Porter will be graduating so we won't see number 3 running around next year, but there are still quite a few yards waiting for CP yet to gain this year.  Just seeing him on the field and knowing how hard he has worked to get back is uplifting to his teammates and the Wabash faithful.  From the article, Holmes and Zurek are putting in a similar effort. 

Wabash has some great seniors that have worked hard and led the team to where they are today.  Those guys have some unfinished business from 2011 and will also be highly motivated tomorrow as well.

[Wabash Hokie]

Wally

Thanks for your in depth analysis of tomorrow's game.  I think that the Stanford - Oregon analogy from last night's game is quite apt.  Cam Sobleski and Ian MacDougall will play key roles tomorrow.  I would not be surprised to see Sobleski get off one or two punts of 50 yards plus, and MacDougall will do his usual great job of creating touchbacks on kick offs, and make key field goal or two.

Mike Putko has done good job all season of playing within himself and making few mistakes.  I expect the same tomorrow and it would not surprise me to see Putko  add a new wrinkle or two in the right situation. 

Finally, the steady sw wind tomorrow with gusts to 25 mph can cause some funny things to happen to the ball flight in the passing game, both downwind and against the wind.  This will create as you noted some opportunities for a group that loves to capitalize on opportunities - the Wabash defensive backs.

I love a good Cam Sobleski shuttle launch as much as the next guy, but I really hope we aren't punting a whole lot when we have the wind.  Would love to see Wabash cashing in those possessions. 

Here's a fun question....the winner of the coin toss is going to defer.  If you win, do you then give up a possession in the second half to get the wind in the 4th quarter?

Good question - with Wabash's defense, I would vote yea.  Go with your strength and then you have the elements and your defense in your favor in the 4th quarter.

[BashDad]

31-17 Wabash Wins

Florence 16-29 258 1 TD 2 INT
             12 rush for 44 yards 1 TD

LGs runs for 300 yards. D/ST scores at least once.

[bashbrother]

Wind.... I've just got's to have me some more cowbell....  I mean Wind.....

Live webcam from Hollett Little Giants Stadium.... (It's dark)   http://youtu.be/5fL8pX2XEnE



WAF -    Big game tomorrow!

[sigma one]

On the Lafayette TV weather at 11:00 pm--winds now could gust to 35-40 mph in the early afternoon. 

[BashBacker#16]

2002 NCAA Division III playoffs, quarter finals, Wabash vs Wittenberg...  Howling winds that day at Hollett Little Giant Stadium...  Jake Knott to Josh Bronaugh - in to the wind for a crucial TD!

BashDad - how was that throw?

It's Game Day fellas...  It's here!

Wabash Always Fights!