FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wabco]

If any of you wander into Hollett on August 30 ... check out two Rhynes (Freshmen) from Michigan .... YES another Buresh  ... Dylan.. He is 6'5" and 205 TE.  And Ryan Walters at 5'11' and 181 at DB.  Ryan is from Lowell HS ... where football starts in the second grade it seems and always ends up at a state championship game.  Both of these guys are gamers.  PLUS we have the potential to see 3 Bureshes in the same game (2 at LB and 1 at TE). ... harks back a number of years to the 5 Henry boys.  ALSO ... NOTE:  there is still a Buresh at home.

[wally_wabash]

it should be a fund day on September 6. 

Homecoming is usually a fund day. 

[sigma one]

OK, last year's numbers are last year's numbers.  First games are unpredictable when two very good teams go against one another.  While I'm not putting much stock in what happened last year, I am looking at a HSC offense that features two All Americans at skill positions to battle the Wabash D.  And it looks like, except for the loss of an outstanding LB, the core of the Southern Tiger D.    And I'm looking at the return of two special Wabash running backs, apparently recovered from injury but behind a less experienced O line, and almost all (9 or 10 depending on how they are counted) of last year's LG D. 
     For me, this adds up to the potential for the an inter-regional classic of the kind that is rarely seen during the regular season, even when considering the distances separating the Texas and West Coast teams yearly (and they are in the same region).  Regardless of the outcome, the LGs and Tigers can both still win their conference, so their ultimate playoff fate does not rely exclusively or almost so on this game.  But for the loser the conference championship becomes even more crucial.  Two losses during the season . . .goodbye.

[tigerfanalso]

Sigma One

I think you are spot on with your observations. Should be two well matched teams beating one each other in week one.
Both are nasty on defense but both offenses can put up points. Comes down to turnovers (and we're not very good there) and special teams in my opinion (we were not very good there last yeart either).

Look forward to meeting some of the best Wabash has to offer. 

[bashbrother]

Heading into the 1st game of the year with two teams that never play each other and no recent results from common opponents,  etc.,  the previous year stats and graduation of key players are two of the only measuring sticks we can look at.    I don't think any Tiger fans are going to stay home just because Wabash's Defensive statistics last year were pretty scary. 

It will be a great game and a great atmosphere for both Little Giant and Tiger Fans.   

[SouthernWabMan]

How are the other NCAC teams looking this year?

[bashgiant]

How are the other NCAC teams looking this year?

You wont get a better preview of the NCAC than this one from Wally.



Alright, here's how I think things shake out in the NCAC in 2014...from the bottom up. 

Allegheny (0-9 NCAC, 0-10 overall) - I tried to find a win here, but I couldn't.  Allegheny is a year older and will no doubt be a better team.  Their problem is that a whole bunch of teams in the league can say that this year.  The few that can't probably aren't slipping enough to predictably get beat by Allegheny. 

Kenyon (1-8, 2-8) - Kenyon's defense is a question mark for me.  I like what Monfiletto is doing in Gambier and my calling them at 1-8 in league play is really more about other teams getting a lot better than it is about Kenyon getting a lot worse. 

Hiram (2-7, 3-7) - Partridge is back!  I thought he was a graduating senior last year, but he is indeed back for another year at Hiram.  Let's remember here...Hiram had defeated Westminster in week 1 and were leading Denison in week 2 when their star quarterback went down for the year.  They had a strong chance to win that game.  So I've got the Terriers winning games with Allegheny and Kenyon.  I couldn't pull the trigger on more wins here, but we shouldn't be surprised if the Terriers win another game or two if their signal caller plays all ten games. 

Oberlin (3-6, 3-7) - Oberlin is building back up.  A little deeper this year, they've got a bunch of starters returning.  They can be a problem for some teams this year, but I'm looking ahead to 2015 (when their top skill guys are seniors, this year's class has a year of college under them, and they get another year of 20+ recruits) as a year when Oberlin gets up into the top half of the league standings. 

OWU (4-5, 5-5) - Pretty much a mystery to me.  I have no idea what their offense looks like post-Espinosa.  As good as Espinosa has been for the Bishops, maybe that offense gets a little more dynamic if they plug a run/pass guy in there. But whoever the new guy is, he will have had about six snaps of experience.  Maximum.  And with as fast as they like to play, offense could be going in fits and starts for this year.  Or at least for a while. 

Denison (5-4, 6-4) - There's a pretty good amount of potential for this offense.  They really came alive after the aforementioned Hiram game in week 2 last year.  The Big Red do have to replace an entire defensive line and that's my reason for bringing them back a notch from the 7-win season last year. 

DePauw (6-3, 7-3) - DePauw won 4 of their last 6 last year and very nearly knocked off Wooster in November which would have made it 5 out of 6 to close the year.  There's a lot of positive inertia in Greencastle and I expect that will translate into a winning record this season.  A lot of those kids that got tossed into the dumpster fire in 2012 now have a bunch of experience and some coaching continuity. 

Wittenberg (7-2, 7-3) - So Witt has to replace an all-timer at quarterback, an all-timer at WR, and two more top receiving targets.  The good news is that Gary and Dehnke are back to hand off to and they have 3 OL starters back.  So it's not as bare as it might seem.  There's also some quality returning pieces on the defense.  Witt's going to be good.  But not as good as 2013.  And I think there are two teams that are better...starting with...

Wooster (8-1, 8-2) - The Scots are getting Witt at home and that's why I'm going this way.  The return of Richard Barnes is a major boon for Wooster.  The Colaprete up-tempo offense really elevated Richard Barnes' game, and they've got most of that offense back.  Short story: the Scots are going to score a bunch of points this year.  Defense is where they had some difficulty last year...in their three losses, they gave 172 points.  You can't win games giving up 50+.  They retooled that defense last year with a lot of young guys and lot of guys playing new positions.  Experience counts in this game, and while I don't think Wooster's defense will have grown into a really good unit, I think they can be average and average is probably good enough with their offense. 

Wabash (9-0, 10-0) - I think Wabash is the most experienced, most complete team in the league this year.  Wabash returns a starting quarterback, a pair of standout running backs, a deep threat WR (Hodges), a swiss army knife guy (Drake Christen...seriously, I think this guy is about to go bonkers).  They will need some guys to step up on the offensive line (which shouldn't be glossed over...offensive line play is critical...all of those fun toys on the edges of the field are no good if you can't block).  The defense ought to be outstanding.  I won't get into a semantics argument about what the "best" defense is from 2013, but Wabash was one of the best.  And they are all back less a Nate Scola.  Not a negligible absence for sure, but LB is a place where Wabash has plenty of dudes.  The LGs are also replacing a couple of all-timers in the kicking game, but if the offense and the defense play to their potential, Wabash should be able work through some growing pains in the kicking game. 

So there it is.  I believe Wabash is the most complete team in the league, but I do think Wooster is about to have a really good year.  Witt also hosts Wabash this year which ratchets up the degree of difficulty there.  DePauw is much improved and who knows how good they might be by the time we get week 11.  There's a depth of quality in the league this year that I think makes a 9-0 run extremely difficult for anybody.  It's conceivable for a team to beat Wooster and Witt and lose to Wabash and DePauw...or Denison...or OWU.  I think we're in for a year with more quality games amongst the top 6 in the league than usual.  Not to the levels of ODAC randomness, but I expect more games in doubt in the fourth quarter than we're used to seeing.  Which is for the better. 




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"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

You wont get a better preview of the NCAC than this one from Wally

[wabashsid]

I will point out one item then return to the shadows for the regular season. Working on the preview, I noticed the backup offensive linemen for Wabash played a total of 14 quarters together in eight varsity contests last season due to the score differential in those games. All four of those five reserves return this season.

[ExTartanPlayer]

All four of those five reserves...

I do not think those words mean what you think they mean...

All four of those five?

[cave2bens]

Noted former OWU QB, Mason Espinosa is the new QB coach under Sheehan at Defiance.

[wabashsid]

Bad editing on my part... Should have been "Four of the five..." At first I thought all five reserves returned but one graduated in May. Good catch!

[AlleghenyAlum]

How are the other NCAC teams looking this year?

You wont get a better preview of the NCAC than this one from Wally.



Alright, here's how I think things shake out in the NCAC in 2014...from the bottom up. 

Allegheny (0-9 NCAC, 0-10 overall) - I tried to find a win here, but I couldn't.  Allegheny is a year older and will no doubt be a better team.  Their problem is that a whole bunch of teams in the league can say that this year.  The few that can't probably aren't slipping enough to predictably get beat by Allegheny. 

Kenyon (1-8, 2-8) - Kenyon's defense is a question mark for me.  I like what Monfiletto is doing in Gambier and my calling them at 1-8 in league play is really more about other teams getting a lot better than it is about Kenyon getting a lot worse. 

Hiram (2-7, 3-7) - Partridge is back!  I thought he was a graduating senior last year, but he is indeed back for another year at Hiram.  Let's remember here...Hiram had defeated Westminster in week 1 and were leading Denison in week 2 when their star quarterback went down for the year.  They had a strong chance to win that game.  So I've got the Terriers winning games with Allegheny and Kenyon.  I couldn't pull the trigger on more wins here, but we shouldn't be surprised if the Terriers win another game or two if their signal caller plays all ten games. 

Oberlin (3-6, 3-7) - Oberlin is building back up.  A little deeper this year, they've got a bunch of starters returning.  They can be a problem for some teams this year, but I'm looking ahead to 2015 (when their top skill guys are seniors, this year's class has a year of college under them, and they get another year of 20+ recruits) as a year when Oberlin gets up into the top half of the league standings. 

OWU (4-5, 5-5) - Pretty much a mystery to me.  I have no idea what their offense looks like post-Espinosa.  As good as Espinosa has been for the Bishops, maybe that offense gets a little more dynamic if they plug a run/pass guy in there. But whoever the new guy is, he will have had about six snaps of experience.  Maximum.  And with as fast as they like to play, offense could be going in fits and starts for this year.  Or at least for a while. 

Denison (5-4, 6-4) - There's a pretty good amount of potential for this offense.  They really came alive after the aforementioned Hiram game in week 2 last year.  The Big Red do have to replace an entire defensive line and that's my reason for bringing them back a notch from the 7-win season last year. 

DePauw (6-3, 7-3) - DePauw won 4 of their last 6 last year and very nearly knocked off Wooster in November which would have made it 5 out of 6 to close the year.  There's a lot of positive inertia in Greencastle and I expect that will translate into a winning record this season.  A lot of those kids that got tossed into the dumpster fire in 2012 now have a bunch of experience and some coaching continuity. 

Wittenberg (7-2, 7-3) - So Witt has to replace an all-timer at quarterback, an all-timer at WR, and two more top receiving targets.  The good news is that Gary and Dehnke are back to hand off to and they have 3 OL starters back.  So it's not as bare as it might seem.  There's also some quality returning pieces on the defense.  Witt's going to be good.  But not as good as 2013.  And I think there are two teams that are better...starting with...

Wooster (8-1, 8-2) - The Scots are getting Witt at home and that's why I'm going this way.  The return of Richard Barnes is a major boon for Wooster.  The Colaprete up-tempo offense really elevated Richard Barnes' game, and they've got most of that offense back.  Short story: the Scots are going to score a bunch of points this year.  Defense is where they had some difficulty last year...in their three losses, they gave 172 points.  You can't win games giving up 50+.  They retooled that defense last year with a lot of young guys and lot of guys playing new positions.  Experience counts in this game, and while I don't think Wooster's defense will have grown into a really good unit, I think they can be average and average is probably good enough with their offense. 

Wabash (9-0, 10-0) - I think Wabash is the most experienced, most complete team in the league this year.  Wabash returns a starting quarterback, a pair of standout running backs, a deep threat WR (Hodges), a swiss army knife guy (Drake Christen...seriously, I think this guy is about to go bonkers).  They will need some guys to step up on the offensive line (which shouldn't be glossed over...offensive line play is critical...all of those fun toys on the edges of the field are no good if you can't block).  The defense ought to be outstanding.  I won't get into a semantics argument about what the "best" defense is from 2013, but Wabash was one of the best.  And they are all back less a Nate Scola.  Not a negligible absence for sure, but LB is a place where Wabash has plenty of dudes.  The LGs are also replacing a couple of all-timers in the kicking game, but if the offense and the defense play to their potential, Wabash should be able work through some growing pains in the kicking game. 

So there it is.  I believe Wabash is the most complete team in the league, but I do think Wooster is about to have a really good year.  Witt also hosts Wabash this year which ratchets up the degree of difficulty there.  DePauw is much improved and who knows how good they might be by the time we get week 11.  There's a depth of quality in the league this year that I think makes a 9-0 run extremely difficult for anybody.  It's conceivable for a team to beat Wooster and Witt and lose to Wabash and DePauw...or Denison...or OWU.  I think we're in for a year with more quality games amongst the top 6 in the league than usual.  Not to the levels of ODAC randomness, but I expect more games in doubt in the fourth quarter than we're used to seeing.  Which is for the better. 




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"Nothing in the world is more expensive than free."- The Deacon of HBO's The Wire

You wont get a better preview of the NCAC than this one from Wally

That would be devastating.

[wally_wabash]

That would be devastating.

Oh I'm sure.  It should be noted that my prediction there has more to do with who I think is favored to win each game along the schedule...right now, it's hard to say that Allegheny would be favored to win any of their games this year, hence the 0-10. 

The facts here are that Allegheny lost by an average of 30 points per game last year.  And that's not a weird average that's been blown out of proportion by one or two blowouts- it's a pretty accurate representation of how Allegheny competed in the league last year.  By my count Allegheny had a legit shot to win one game in the fourth quarter- their 24-21 loss to Denison.  The Gators scored with 4:15 left to cut the deficit to those three points, but then couldn't get the ball back (including giving up 17 on a 3rd and 12...probably the decisive play of the game).  Outside of that, the 2013 Gators weren't anywhere close to winning a game.  They didn't share or hold a lead at any point in any second half of any game in 2013. 

I'm interested to see how much improvement comes from Meadville this year...but based on 2013's results, there is a big gap between Allegheny and anybody else in the league. 

[ExTartanPlayer]

Agreed.  It is hard to believe Allegheny would go 0-10 twice in a row, considering that they'd only had one other losing season since 1999 and they're just a year removed from beating Wabash...but as wally said, with the other "bottom feeders" all seeming to have some hope to be on the rise this year, you can't really pinpoint anyone that they'll be favored to beat.  We could end up with a triumvirate of 1-2 win teams at the bottom of the league, but when you're making preseason picks, you can't help but just rank the teams in order.

We piled on Allegheny enough last year, but really, it was hard to overstate just how bad the Gators were last year, especially on offense.  Optimistically, we can say that their best offensive player (Niklaus) is back, and they should be better at QB (Nigro will presumably be better with a year's experience, and if he's not, then whoever beats him out is obviously an upgrade).  So perhaps they'll take a step forward.  But 6 ppg is pretty hideous.  The defense was merely "bad" last year, since they did hold most teams in 20's or low 30's.  Give them an offense that can score in double digits and they might eke out a win.

[wally_wabash]

I am Kickoff ready.  Should probably alert my employer to lower productivity expectations for the latter half of next week.