FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[sigma one]

It's mid-week, and the weather forecast in Crawfordsville for Saturday is beginning to firm up.  At this point, the conditions appear to be more like November than October:  20-40% chance of rain, 52-55 temp, wind at 15-20 mph.  Those conditions could definitely influence the teams' offenses.  Wabash generally puts on a lot of pressure and makes it difficult for the QB to have time to throw deep, even intermediate, routes.  Both teams have exhibited strong running games, Wabash behind the two-headed monster of Holmes and Zurek, and Wooster with Hackel mainly but with Barnes also always being a threat to go either on designed plays or improvising when receivers are covered.  If the wind is as forecast, the kicking game will be affected; the Wabash field runs east/west, not the usual north/south, and a wind of 15-20 will make field position crucial.  I'll dump in an additional factor that may or may not be unusually affected by a strong wind.  Wooster's multiple receivers are impressive so far, and Barnes has one of the best QB efficiency ratings in the entire NCAA.  Wabash's passing game is still a work in progress, with an improving set of young receivers and one veteran (Hodges).
     So what does this all mean?  Probably that both teams will have to run the ball effectively to be successful, both defenses can be expected to press the line of scrimmage, and both teams will have to avoid getting trapped deep in their own territory when they are going into the wind.  So far this year, Wooster has been equally proficient passing and running, while Wabash has, as usual, tried to dominate with their running game.  Keys to the game should be Wooster's ability to slow down the Wabash ground attack--which they have not been effective at doing v. anyone so far this year-- Wabash's defensive discipline v. Hackel and Barnes, and the effectiveness of the teams' punters.
Wabash's win v. H-SC was solid, their win at Denison not as dominating as some would have expected coming off a free week, but Denison is better than average team this year as they showed against OWU (admittedly what to make of them with Orsini at the controls is still up in the air),
     Should be a good football game, one that Wooster has to win to achieve the kind of success they aspire to after last season's turn around.  Wabash knows it can't slip up before the crucial test v. Wittenberg.  Over on the pickems board Wally has the LGs as a 17.5 pt favorite.  I'm still trying to decide which way I want to go when I send in my ballot. 

[firstdown]

Sigma One

Thanks for a good analysis.  Wabash is number 1 in Division 3 in rushing defense allowing only 22.3 yards per game.  It will be interesting to see what degree of success that Wooster will be able to have  on the ground.

[Wabash Hokie]

It's mid-week, and the weather forecast in Crawfordsville for Saturday is beginning to firm up.  At this point, the conditions appear to be more like November than October:  20-40% chance of rain, 52-55 temp, wind at 15-20 mph.  Those conditions could definitely influence the teams' offenses.  Wabash generally puts on a lot of pressure and makes it difficult for the QB to have time to throw deep, even intermediate, routes.  Both teams have exhibited strong running games, Wabash behind the two-headed monster of Holmes and Zurek, and Wooster with Hackel mainly but with Barnes also always being a threat to go either on designed plays or improvising when receivers are covered.  If the wind is as forecast, the kicking game will be affected; the Wabash field runs east/west, not the usual north/south, and a wind of 15-20 will make field position crucial.  I'll dump in an additional factor that may or may not be unusually affected by a strong wind.  Wooster's multiple receivers are impressive so far, and Barnes has one of the best QB efficiency ratings in the entire NCAA.  Wabash's passing game is still a work in progress, with an improving set of young receivers and one veteran (Hodges).
     So what does this all mean?  Probably that both teams will have to run the ball effectively to be successful, both defenses can be expected to press the line of scrimmage, and both teams will have to avoid getting trapped deep in their own territory when they are going into the wind.  So far this year, Wooster has been equally proficient passing and running, while Wabash has, as usual, tried to dominate with their running game.  Keys to the game should be Wooster's ability to slow down the Wabash ground attack--which they have not been effective at doing v. anyone so far this year-- Wabash's defensive discipline v. Hackel and Barnes, and the effectiveness of the teams' punters.
Wabash's win v. H-SC was solid, their win at Denison not as dominating as some would have expected coming off a free week, but Denison is better than average team this year as they showed against OWU (admittedly what to make of them with Orsini at the controls is still up in the air),
     Should be a good football game, one that Wooster has to win to achieve the kind of success they aspire to after last season's turn around.  Wabash knows it can't slip up before the crucial test v. Wittenberg.  Over on the pickems board Wally has the LGs as a 17.5 pt favorite.  I'm still trying to decide which way I want to go when I send in my ballot.

Great analysis.  Below is the link to this week's "Around the Region" story featuring Hackel.  In what may prove to be the D3 Jinx, Hackel, who is averaging 150 yds per game, is going up against Wabash's strength.  If there is a cool and wet wind blowing on Saturday, both teams will have the opportunity make a statement with their running games.

http://www.d3football.com/columns/around-the-region/greatlakes/2014/sean-hackel-running-all-over

[Wabash Hokie]

Below are the Wabash notes for this weekend's game at home versus Wooster:


http://sports.wabash.edu/documents/2014/10/2//ReleaseOct22014.pdf?id=291


The weather forecast seems to be improving - windy (20 mph from the west) and wet (hopefully only morning showers) and cold (forecast high of 51) is fun for neither fan nor player.

[wally_wabash]

I've been distracted by poll nonsense (but fun nonsense) and playoff baseball (Crawford!  Bumgarner!) this week.  I swear I've got thoughts about the big game on Saturday.  I'll get them on the record here when I have a bit more time to hammer out my bloviations. 

[wabndy]

I don't mean this in any specific context or to level any criticism of any one crew (and I'm about to drop a "but" here- but this is really true), BUT could someone enlighten me how the NCAC assigns officials?  What about for nonconference and postseason games?  I assume there is a coordinator of officials at the conference office who maintains a list of approved officials.  As a distantly former football official in several states, I was always amazed by how the backroom politics of the assigning process works from one league to the next.  For example, some leagues would give coaches anywhere from one to an unlimited number of blackballs.  In one place I worked, a cluster of schools basically set a gentlemens agreement that they would blackball any officiating crew that EVER called offensive backfield holding in any context (it made for a different game).  The result was that there was a subset of our officials association who only those games and those games only.
How are we set up as a conference?

[badgerwarhawk]

I don't know how your league works for conference games but I believe the NCAA assigns officials in the post season and typically they are officials from different leagues than those in which the two participants play in.  In WHITEWATER we've had postseason officials from Minnesota, Iowa, Illinois, Michigan and Ohio that I can think of off the top of my head.   

[smedindy]

I don't mean this in any specific context or to level any criticism of any one crew (and I'm about to drop a "but" here- but this is really true), BUT could someone enlighten me how the NCAC assigns officials?  What about for nonconference and postseason games?  I assume there is a coordinator of officials at the conference office who maintains a list of approved officials.  As a distantly former football official in several states, I was always amazed by how the backroom politics of the assigning process works from one league to the next.  For example, some leagues would give coaches anywhere from one to an unlimited number of blackballs.  In one place I worked, a cluster of schools basically set a gentlemens agreement that they would blackball any officiating crew that EVER called offensive backfield holding in any context (it made for a different game).  The result was that there was a subset of our officials association who only those games and those games only.
How are we set up as a conference?

If I recall, the NCAC dictates assignments for league games for sure. In football it's crew based I believe.

[smedindy]

I truly wish the NCAA would allow a breakout of rushing sans sacks, so we can get a true picture of actual rushing defense. We keep sacks, obviously, and if the NCAA still wants to keep it as rushing yards, fine with me, but rushing defense excluding sacks would really be a great metric.

If you really want to know, when we input a sack in Stat Crew we are in Passing mode. It's "P" then "S" then who nailed the QB and then the spot. So we input it already as a pass play.

(Many times I hit "P" for pass, and if the QB scrambles out and makes positive yards I have to escape out and hit "R" for run.)

[ExTartanPlayer]

I truly wish the NCAA would allow a breakout of rushing sans sacks, so we can get a true picture of actual rushing defense. We keep sacks, obviously, and if the NCAA still wants to keep it as rushing yards, fine with me, but rushing defense excluding sacks would really be a great metric.

Agreed.

[wally_wabash]

Alright, let's talk about Wooster.   One year ago, Wooster piled up 426 yards of offense against the Little Giants which was the most any team gained in any one game against Wabash.  This year, they are even better.  Wooster leads the league in total offense, they have the league's best RB statistically, the league's best WR, and the league's most efficient QB (by far).  In short, this team can move the ball and score points.  They do it well. 

What they don't do well is defend.  In particular, they don't defend the run very well.  That's a critical point because nobody in the league rushes better than Wabash (249.7 ypg, 5.3 ypc). 

So we've got a situation here where Wooster's top strength (fast, explosive offense) plays head to head with Wabash's top strength (fast, explosive defense) and then Wabash's other main strength (Holmes, Zurek, repeat) plays right into Wooster's biggest weakness (a rush defense that surrenders 226 ypg and 5.3 ypc and ranks t-209 nationally).  One year ago, Wabash ran for 302 yards against these Scots.  They haven't shown much improvement in that area, so you kind of know what Wabash's game plan is going to be here.  The great unknown tomorrow is whether or not Richard Barnes, in his fifth crack at Wabash, can figure out how to score points.  Mike Schmitz didn't have a scheme that helped.  Now he has the scheme and he's got the dudes (Hackel and Owens are really good).  Can he solve the puzzle?  Maybe.  This is going to be a huge challenge for Wabash tomorrow.

I'll chime in quickly with the specials. Wooster's kick return game is strong.  But if Wooster is returning enough kicks for the rest of us to notice, then they're not winning the game. 

Just for fun, I wanted to look at Richard "Business Trip" Barnes's numbers against the LGs...here they are:

2010 (L 17-21): 15-29, 184 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT; 13 rushes, 52 yards, 1 TD - He's never been closer than he was in this game.  Wooster had the ball at midfield with 30 seconds left before Barnes got picked off on a 4th and 10. 

2011 (L 7-19): 21-41, 192 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT; 6 rushes, 13 yards, 0 TD - Wooster scored early in this game when a Robert Flagg fumble into the end zone was covered up by New Kid Jordan McIntyre.  After that, Wooster basically had bubkes.  I'll remember this game because the officials cleared the stadium with something like 90 seconds left and Wabash running out the clock because the back judge or somebody spotted some far off distant lightning.  I'm not one who usually leaves a game early, but I didn't stick around for 45 minutes to watch Wabash take two kneel downs. 

2012 (L 0-30): 20-36, 139 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT; 18 rushes, 21 yards, 0 TD - Stifling performance by the Little Giant defense on this day.  I think Wooster was in the red zone once (turned it over on downs).  Tyler Holmes went bonkers and Andy Walsh got a spot start with Chase dinged up. 

2013 (L 14-48): 28-45, 306 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT; 17 rushes, -52 yards(!!), 0 TD, 2 fumbles lost - Nasty, nasty Little Giant defense on this day.  Quickly on the rush stat there; Wabash had 7 sacks for 50 yards so if we attribute all of those sacks to plays when Barnes was in the game, he still had 10 more rushes for -2 yards.  Think about that.  THAT guy couldn't net positive yards on 10 tries.  Wild stuff.   Also wild was Mason Zurek pulling a 25 for 229 job. 

Two things I find really interesting.  1) Barnes has never thrown a TD pass against Wabash.  2) The MOV of these games has increased every year since 2010. 

[firstdown]

Wabash Hokie

While the fans may not enjoy the cooler, damper weather, the players do.  This especially true for the defensive players that have to run hard for the entire game.  Given the pads and gear that they wear, players will be much more comfortable this Saturday than in the warmer weather like last Saturday.

[BashDad]

Alright, let's talk about Wooster.   One year ago, Wooster piled up 426 yards of offense against the Little Giants which was the most any team gained in any one game against Wabash.  This year, they are even better.  Wooster leads the league in total offense, they have the league's best RB statistically, the league's best WR, and the league's most efficient QB (by far).  In short, this team can move the ball and score points.  They do it well. 

What they don't do well is defend.  In particular, they don't defend the run very well.  That's a critical point because nobody in the league rushes better than Wabash (249.7 ypg, 5.3 ypc). 

So we've got a situation here where Wooster's top strength (fast, explosive offense) plays head to head with Wabash's top strength (fast, explosive defense) and then Wabash's other main strength (Holmes, Zurek, repeat) plays right into Wooster's biggest weakness (a rush defense that surrenders 226 ypg and 5.3 ypc and ranks t-209 nationally).  One year ago, Wabash ran for 302 yards against these Scots.  They haven't shown much improvement in that area, so you kind of know what Wabash's game plan is going to be here.  The great unknown tomorrow is whether or not Richard Barnes, in his fifth crack at Wabash, can figure out how to score points.  Mike Schmitz didn't have a scheme that helped.  Now he has the scheme and he's got the dudes (Hackel and Owens are really good).  Can he solve the puzzle?  Maybe.  This is going to be a huge challenge for Wabash tomorrow.

I'll chime in quickly with the specials. Wooster's kick return game is strong.  But if Wooster is returning enough kicks for the rest of us to notice, then they're not winning the game. 

Just for fun, I wanted to look at Richard "Business Trip" Barnes's numbers against the LGs...here they are:

2010 (L 17-21): 15-29, 184 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT; 13 rushes, 52 yards, 1 TD - He's never been closer than he was in this game.  Wooster had the ball at midfield with 30 seconds left before Barnes got picked off on a 4th and 10. 

2011 (L 7-19): 21-41, 192 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT; 6 rushes, 13 yards, 0 TD - Wooster scored early in this game when a Robert Flagg fumble into the end zone was covered up by New Kid Jordan McIntyre.  After that, Wooster basically had bubkes.  I'll remember this game because the officials cleared the stadium with something like 90 seconds left and Wabash running out the clock because the back judge or somebody spotted some far off distant lightning.  I'm not one who usually leaves a game early, but I didn't stick around for 45 minutes to watch Wabash take two kneel downs. 

2012 (L 0-30): 20-36, 139 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT; 18 rushes, 21 yards, 0 TD - Stifling performance by the Little Giant defense on this day.  I think Wooster was in the red zone once (turned it over on downs).  Tyler Holmes went bonkers and Andy Walsh got a spot start with Chase dinged up. 

2013 (L 14-48): 28-45, 306 yards, 0 TD, 1 INT; 17 rushes, -52 yards(!!), 0 TD, 2 fumbles lost - Nasty, nasty Little Giant defense on this day.  Quickly on the rush stat there; Wabash had 7 sacks for 50 yards so if we attribute all of those sacks to plays when Barnes was in the game, he still had 10 more rushes for -2 yards.  Think about that.  THAT guy couldn't net positive yards on 10 tries.  Wild stuff.   Also wild was Mason Zurek pulling a 25 for 229 job. 

Two things I find really interesting.  1) Barnes has never thrown a TD pass against Wabash.  2) The MOV of these games has increased every year since 2010.

Boom. That's what I'm talking about, WW. Good stuff.

[oldtiger]

Here's a link to access the Springfield News-Sun articles on Witt sports:

http://www.springfieldnewssun.com/s/sports/college/wittenberg-tigers/

[sigma one]

On Wednesday I mentioned the forecast in C'ville for Saturday.  Updating that, conditions now appear to be about the same as predicted earlier in the week:  temp of about 50 degrees, wind at 20 mph, and a slightly downward revision on the chance for rain, now 10-20% chance of afternoon showers.  Building on Wally's excellent analysis, the rushing games of both teams seem to take on increasing importance given the weather (wind).
     I've been aware for a long time that Barnes has, surprisingly, never thrown a TD pass v. the LGs.  That's an amazing stat.  If that lack of production holds on Saturday--I'm not saying it will--then Wooster could be in for a long afternoon.  I don't think Hackel can shoulder the load alone, and Barnes has been stopped from scrambling by the Wabash D for a couple of years.  The Wooster receivers are very good, but if the deep pass threat is diminished, then Wabash can fly to the ball and minimize production in the short-passing game. 
     On the other side, every week I've been expecting the Wooster rush D to improve, and that has not happened.  On paper with their experience, it appears that they should be able to stop the run more effectively.  Why this has not worked is probably a mystery to the Wooster coaches as well as to the fans.  Woo has surely put in a lot of work this week after getting gashed pretty often by Hiram on slowing down Holmes and Zurek.  Wabash has thrown just enough to keep the opposing defenses honest; can that continue in windy conditions? 
     I said earlier that I was having trouble with Wally's 17.5 spread in favor of Wabash.  I finally decided to pick the home team in my NCAC ballot, but I did that with some doubt.   I would not be surprised if the margin is closer and Wooster has an outside chance of a win if they can move the ball anything near the kind of proficiency they've shown thus far.