FB: North Coast Athletic Conference

[wally_wabash]

But on another note, I really think Witt needs this win.

Witt needs a swift and thorough beatdown.  Nothing less. 

[wabndy]

the announcement that two leagues that were supposed to get a bid but now won't will help.

It's actually very helpful in that it (should) assure us of 6 pool C bids. Had this been the case last year Wabash would have probably taken that last ticket.

[bashgiant]

But on another note, I really think Witt needs this win.

Witt needs a swift and thorough beatdown.  Nothing less.

+K X2

[bashbrother]

WITT WEEK!!!

[Mr. Ypsi]

WITT WEEK!!!

It's a shame that there are no Witt posters - it's not fun like the Monon Bell thread!

[Sir Battlescars]

With Wittenberg's history, one would think they would have more fans posting. You know it will be a great game. Hopefully the loser of this game gets into the playoffs, both teams deserve to be in assuming they win the following week.

[smedindy]

They don't post in hoops either. They may have some secret Wittenberg posting spot, perhaps by the Asian Massage that used to be by the fast food places on the first exit out of town? 

[bashbrother]

I totally agree Mr. Ypsi -

Here is a good illustration of a growing rivalry-

# of Recent Meetings (Back to 2000) -  15*
Series Record  - Wabash leads -   8-7*
Avg. Margin of Victory  -  11.80 pts/game
# of games decided by a TD or less -   7
Wabash's Largest Victory -  41-14  ('03) (bashdad had a great view of this one)
Witt's Largest Victory - 41-10  (2000)
Home field Advantage?   Home teams have won 9 of 14
Last Wabash Win at Witt -  2012
Wabash is 1-2 when playing Witt the week before the Monon Bell Game.

(* 2002 Wabash also defeated Witt in the playoffs 25-14)

[Dr. Acula]

Are we sure both of them deserve to be in at 9-1?  I'd be curious to hear from our North Region playoff selection guru (Wally_Wabash) on his take on a 9-1 Witt because they'd be sitting there with a resume devoid of a quality win.

[BashDad]

Are we sure both of them deserve to be in at 9-1?  I'd be curious to hear from our North Region playoff selection guru (Wally_Wabash) on his take on a 9-1 Witt because they'd be sitting there with a resume devoid of a quality win.

8-2

[Wabash Hokie]

Are we sure both of them deserve to be in at 9-1?  I'd be curious to hear from our North Region playoff selection guru (Wally_Wabash) on his take on a 9-1 Witt because they'd be sitting there with a resume devoid of a quality win.

Vlad:


If Witt finishes 9-1, they will have defeated Wabash, which would be their quality win for the year.  Witt lost their 1st game of the year to Butler in a surprisingly close game and has since run the table against NCAC opponents.  If Wabash loses, then it is hoped that our win over Hampden-Sydney (currently tied for first in the ODAC) would carry us into the playoffs.  Last year, Wabash's 9-1 record with its lone loss to Witt was not enough to get in. However, that loss to Witt was a bad one - blown out at home by visiting Witt. 


Given our performance to date, and currently ranked 9th, unless we lose to both Witt and DePauw, I don't see Wabash out of the 2014 playoffs.  However, I defer to Wally on this.

[BashDad]

An email excerpt from the twin:

Anyway...We're better than they are--we can't give them anything. I think we'll get some sacks (we're leading DIII), because they might throw 50 times. Speaking of which, I cannot believe Putko threw it 50 times last year. Not happening again. And if we had Zurek/Holmes last year, I'm not sure we lose. Austin Brown is playing out of his mind, and so is Christen, and the line, and the Buresh bros. Wabash has had a couple years off from the playoffs, in part because of stupid **** they could have controlled (see: Allegheny, Oberlin). Hard to believe the last time was with Tyler Burke's heroics. I think this is one of the games where you get the team to look themselves in the mirror, face the uncertain prospect of realizing their own potential rather than confronting another team, and hopefully blow these guys out--en route to the Bell defense and an I-don't-want-to-jinx-it romp to Alliance, Ohio. Going to be a great one. Wabash is a bone crushing team. Fear the flock. WAF.

"Fear the flock." He wins.

And I think he's totally right. Wally brought up the key statistical match ups in the same off-line thread (Witt's putrid run game vs our run D; Witt's exemplary turnover margin). Those are definitely going to be of interest on Saturday. But... if Witt can't run--which they haven't--and Wabash doesn't turn the ball over a bunch--which they haven't--then I think we could have wider margin of victory then a lot of folks would presume.

[Dr. Acula]

Are we sure both of them deserve to be in at 9-1?  I'd be curious to hear from our North Region playoff selection guru (Wally_Wabash) on his take on a 9-1 Witt because they'd be sitting there with a resume devoid of a quality win.

Vlad:


If Witt finishes 9-1, they will have defeated Wabash, which would be their quality win for the year.  Witt lost their 1st game of the year to Butler in a surprisingly close game and has since run the table against NCAC opponents.  If Wabash loses, then it is hoped that our win over Hampden-Sydney (currently tied for first in the ODAC) would carry us into the playoffs.  Last year, Wabash's 9-1 record with its lone loss to Witt was not enough to get in. However, that loss to Witt was a bad one - blown out at home by visiting Witt. 


Given our performance to date, and currently ranked 9th, unless we lose to both Witt and DePauw, I don't see Wabash out of the 2014 playoffs.  However, I defer to Wally on this.

BashDad picked me up there...I meant if Witt lost to Wabash so 8-2.  A 9-1 Witt would obviously be the AQ and I agree a 9-1 Wabash is a Pool C.  I think Wabash is going to win Saturday so my question was if that happens is Witt that strong of a Pool C candidate?       

[smedindy]

I think you'd need to watch the RR's this week and next - especially where they slot in vis-a-vis North Central.

Assuming JCU / Mt. Union loser is first on the table, and picked, then the next up may be 8-1 vs D3 Witt or 8-2 North Central...

[wally_wabash]

Are we sure both of them deserve to be in at 9-1?  I'd be curious to hear from our North Region playoff selection guru (Wally_Wabash) on his take on a 9-1 Witt because they'd be sitting there with a resume devoid of a quality win.

I think just so that we're all speaking the same language, we can dismiss Witt's result against Butler because, while not a bad result really, it doesn't count for much of anything with respect to selection and seeding.  So if we're talking about a runner up Wittenberg, they'd be 8-1 in games that matter, having lost to the one really quality team on their schedule (Wabash).  Do keep an eye on DePauw though, because as the North region's tier of teams below the top 5/6 continues to consume itself, there might be room for DePauw in the rankings.  I digress.  I believe Wittenberg's chances at an at-large bid are directly linked to whether or not they can lose on Saturday and still be ranked ahead of North Central.  And I honestly don't know the answer to that question.  Good arguments on either side of that debate (it's basically the same debate we had last year with Wabash and SJF, only this one is within the region itself). 

My feeling right now is that whoever is third in the North region's at-large queue is going to be left out. 

Wabash's at-large situation took a pretty significant ding when Hampden-Sydney got kneecapped on Saturday.  If they lose again, they'll be out of the rankings and it'll be like the Gentlemen's Classic never happened...and Wabash winds up more or less in the same boat Witt would be in.  If H-SC does win out and win the ODAC, they'll stay ranked and all will be good for the Little Giants (in a 9-1 scenario that is...8-2 losing the last two gets you the unvitation). 

This is an interesting time to mention that I've been doing some tracking of SOS and how it moves week to week.  In week 6, Wabash had a SOS of 0.591, ranked 36th.  In the weeks since, the ranking has gone to 94th, 133rd, and now to 160th at 0.475.  I'm estimating that at the end of week 11 Wabash will have a SOS somewhere around 0.525 and be ranked somewhere around 75th, which is pretty respectable and about as good as you can do with a 9-game league schedule.